» NDP collapse key factor in federal election results: Pundits

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OTTAWA — Aside from the Liberals’ narrow victory on Monday, the pundits agree: The NDP meltdown was the big story of the night.

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Liberal strategist Sharan Kaur said the impact of the NDP collapse could especially be felt in certain GTA and downtown Toronto ridings where the NDP normally do well.

“In Toronto Centre, for example, it’s usually been a race between the Liberals and NDP,” she said.

“The NDP came in third place, which is wild considering the Conservative candidate was nowhere to be seen.”

Evan Solomon easily won Toronto Centre for the Liberals, but NDP candidate Samantha Green placed a distant third, trailing Conservative Luis Ibarra by nearly 5,000 votes.

In all, the NDP lost seven seats to the Liberals on Monday, plus 10 to the Tories.

Another notable loss for the NDP was Hamilton Centre, where Matthew Green came third behind Liberal Aslam Rana and Tory Hayden Lawrence.

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Stephen Taylor, a partner at Shift Media, said the NDP’s collapse was a curveball few pundits foresaw.

“Conservative strategy has always depended on a stronger NDP to split the vote with the Liberals,” Taylor said.

“But now that the NDP looks to be on the brink of extinction, it certainly behooves the Conservatives to imagine a world without the NDP and understand how they might need to adjust.”

The NDP’s fall, Kaur said, had a lot to do with outgoing party leader Jagmeet Singh losing favour not only with Canadians, but NDP voters as well.

“He doesn’t exactly bring something to the table that gives people confidence,” she said.

“He’s a great guy, he’s a fun guy, I’m sure a lot of people really like him, but being a leader of a party shouldn’t just be a popularity contest. You have to bring something to the table.”

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Pre-election polling spelled this out quite clearly.

When NDP supporters were asked which leader was running the best campaign, Singh ranked third behind Liberal Leader Mark Carney and “I don’t know.”

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Inheriting the same minority government problems faced by his predecessor, prime minister-elect Carney needs to ensure unity across the aisle as what promises to be a chaotic House session prepares to commence.

“It’s going to be maximum chaos,” she said.

“Maximum chaos for the NDP, it’s going to be maximum chaos for the Conservatives.”

The Tories, she said, are going to have to regroup and rebuild, particularly facing a session with a seat-less leader.

The Liberals being held to a minority, Taylor said, gives him hope the Conservatives will still have a voice in policy.

“We’ll see what kind of shape (Carney’s) government takes in the coming days and what picks he makes for cabinet and whether or not he will make a clean break from Justin Trudeau’s cast of characters or whether he’s got enough new talent to strike a path in a new direction,” he said.

bpassifiume@postmedia.com
X: @bryanpassifiume

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