Southeast Asia is becoming a hotspot for energy competition with projections suggesting that its demand for power will triple by 2050. As countries across the region race to meet their growing needs, one source of power is generating both hope and controversy: nuclear energy. Amid a renewed global competition for influence, nuclear power is fast becoming a key battleground with various providers vying to shape the future of the region’s energy landscape.
In January, Indonesia unveiled plans to build 20 new nuclear power plants, with the first set to come online by 2036. If successful, Indonesia will be the first Southeast Asian nation to have an operational nuclear power plant, a break for a region that has traditionally been hyper-cautious about nuclear power. Jakarta plans to rely on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), a newer, safer, cheaper, and faster-to-build technology.
Indonesia’s nuclear ambitions raise eyebrows. Positioned along the seismically volatile Ring of Fire, subject to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, the Indonesian public remains fearful of nuclear disasters. Despite these concerns, Indonesia has partnered with the Indonesian subsidiary of the American firm ThorCon to develop at least one of the 20 reactors, signaling a willingness to navigate the risks involved with nuclear power.
In addition, the Indonesian state-owned power company PT PLN is collaborating with U.S. and Japanese companies to conduct research studies for and build SMRs in remote regions of the country. As these efforts unfold, other global powers, including South Korea, France, China, and Russia, have expressed interest in Indonesia’s nuclear sector. For instance, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indonesian President Prabowo discussed nuclear cooperation during a high-profile meeting last August. Russia’s Rosatom and Indonesia’s BATAN have signed a cooperation agreement on the construction of floating nuclear power plants, but no concrete plans have yet been announced.
Indonesia’s foray into nuclear energy reflects a broader trend in Southeast Asia: foreign powers beyond the region leveraging nuclear energy to expand their geopolitical influence. Vietnam’s Politburo revived the country’s nuclear energy plan after mothballing it in 2016, incorporating it into the national power development plan. Vietnam signed an atomic energy cooperation deal with Russia on January 14, despite having suspended its nuclear energy program in 2016. The deal will see Russia’s state-owned nuclear giant, Rosatom, working alongside Vietnam’s EVN to develop atomic energy over the coming decade. Additionally, Russia signed an agreement with Myanmar, planning to develop a 110 MW SMR with the potential to expand capacity to 330 MW. The two countries also signed a memorandum of understanding on nuclear and radiation safety.
Whether and to what extent these ventures represent a push for increased Russian influence in Southeast Asia remains to be seen. However, Russia’s involvement in Southeast Asia’s energy sectors would adversely affect Western energy providers and complicate the United States’ and the United Kingdom’s ability to sanction Rosatom or its subsidiaries. However, the Ukraine war has constrained Russia’s ability to be the leading vendor for nuclear energy, opening a window for other providers.
Meanwhile. China is playing a long game with its ambitious nuclear power plans, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Chinese National Nuclear Corporation has proposed plans to construct 30 nuclear reactors in BRI partner countries, which would cement China’s status as the global leader in nuclear energy investments. If these projects succeed, combined with Chinese domestic capabilities, China will boast the largest nuclear program in the world.
However, China’s nuclear ambitions raise safety concerns, especially as many BRI partner countries lack the technological infrastructure, local expertise, and regulatory frameworks to ensure the safe operation of reactors. These partner states will find themselves dependent on China’s technology, creating a scenario where Beijing can leverage energy agreements to exert economic and political pressure. If partner countries negatively provoke China, China could suspend nuclear power generation or leverage debt for strategic gain.
China is a very attractive partner for countries looking to expand their energy capacity with nuclear power due to its cheaper financing methods. However, the U.S. and South Korea can leverage their collective power and differing comparative advantages to effectively cooperate and become the preferred partner of choice for nuclear energy in Southeast Asia.
The U.S. is not lagging behind in the nuclear competition. It inked two nuclear energy deals with Singapore in the past year, aiming to enable deeper nuclear cooperation, in both nuclear weapons non-proliferation cooperation and civil nuclear projects. Stemming from section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act, the agreements allow for the transfer of nuclear material, equipment, components, and information for atomic research and civil nuclear energy production. They also streamline licensing requirements for private companies looking to invest in nuclear technology. The United States also has active 123 Agreements with the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Likewise, South Korea is one of the world’s most prominent nuclear energy producing countries. Their nuclear tech and infrastructure exports reached an all-time high in the past two years, equaling $21.9 billion. South Korea established a nuclear tech and economic research agreement with the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, to potentially revive the long-dormant Bataan nuclear power plant in October. In addition, the U.S. and South Korea signed an MOU on January 7, building upon their long-standing partnership to pave the way for deeper civil nuclear energy cooperation in third countries.
Nuclear energy in Southeast Asia remains a controversial subject due to the great cost and the lingering shadow of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and other environmental concerns, which have fueled public skepticism and limited the region’s nuclear expansion to date. However, governments appear eager to forge ahead with nuclear energy via partnerships with foreign governments, inadvertently creating a new front for geopolitical competition in the region.
Southeast Asia now has important decisions to make. The choices made now could shape not only the region’s energy future but its political and economic alignment for decades to come. In this high-stakes contest, nuclear power is no longer just about generating electricity: it is also about influence, strategy, and the pursuit of global power.
