In a recent guest essay for The New York Times, Ms. Yintai Lung, a writer and former minister of culture in Taiwan, suggested that recent events in Ukraine have caused many in Taiwan – especially the youth – to favor surrender over resistance in the event of a Chinese invasion. Her conclusion was based on an informal, unscientific poll conducted on Dcard, a Taiwanese social media equivalent to Reddit. While the sentiment expressed by some users on the platform is undoubtedly genuine, Lung’s argument risks misrepresenting the broader reality of Taiwanese society – and particularly its younger generation.
As researchers of public opinion on security issues in Taiwan, we find the use of this online poll not just misleading but potentially dangerous. The Dcard poll, like many social media “snapshots,” lacks even the most basic standards of survey methodology: the sample is self-selected, the demographic characteristics of respondents are not reported, and no weights are applied to reflect Taiwan’s actual population. Drawing sweeping conclusions about the youth’s resolve from such data does a disservice to both readers and policymakers trying to understand Taiwan’s security posture.
Quite contrary to what Dcard polling shows, a wide body of academic, well-executed surveys with nationally representative samples paints a very different picture of Taiwanese people’s willingness to fight in the past two decades.
Between 1998 and 2012, the World Values Survey in Taiwan found that between 84 percent and 86 percent of respondents were willing to fight for Taiwan in the event of war. Even in 2019, that figure stood at 77 percent. More recently, the 2020 Taiwan Social Image Survey conducted by the Institute of Sociology at Academia Sinica found that 77 percent expressed a willingness to defend Taiwan, while the Institute’s 2021 China Impact Survey recorded an even higher level at 81 percent.
In addition, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), a think tank affiliated with Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, launched a series of nationally representative polls between 2021 and 2024. These five waves of data show that between 74 percent and 81 percent of Taiwanese citizens consistently say they would fight to defend their country against a Chinese military attack. Even the most recent American Portrait Survey, conducted in March 2025 amid growing global uncertainties and Taiwan’s geopolitical risks, found that 63 percent of respondents said they would resist a Chinese invasion “at all costs.”
What about young people specifically? Across these surveys, youth are not only engaged but often deeply committed. Among respondents aged 18 to 30, the willingness to fight for Taiwan ranges from 53 percent to 88 percent. While support among younger cohorts tends to be slightly lower than among older respondents – a common global pattern reflecting younger generations’ embrace of post-materialistic values – it is simply false to suggest that Taiwanese youth would fold at the first sign of conflict.
The following chart summarizes the trend across the aforementioned surveys over time.
Why does this matter?
First, the mischaracterization of Taiwan’s youth as apathetic or defeatist feeds a damaging narrative, one that could weaken international support and undermine peace. If allies believe that Taiwan lacks the will to fight, they may hesitate to extend assistance in a crisis. Conversely, if Beijing believes that the Taiwanese public – especially its youth – will not resist, it may miscalculate the costs of aggression.
Second, the reality of public resolve strengthens Taiwan’s democratic resilience. In contrast to authoritarian regimes that depend on coercion and propaganda, Taiwan’s self-defense rests on a democratic consensus. Public opinion does not just follow policy; it helps shape it in democracies. Taiwanese people’s strong and consistent willingness to defend the homeland reflects a society that takes its sovereignty seriously. In addition, it serves as a “focal point” to coordinate citizens’ collective action to defend the country.
Taiwan’s younger generation grew up in a free and open society. They are digital natives, globally connected, and politically aware. Their caution about war is understandable. But caution is not surrender. The survey data collected via rigorous and scientific procedures show that when it comes to defending Taiwan, young Taiwanese are more than ready to stand up.
