President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan is scheduled to make a state visit to the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, on March 12-13. Rahmon’s visit this week to Kyrgyzstan comes in the wake of the settling of a final border agreement between the two countries and ahead of an expected trilateral summit – with the Kyrgyz and Uzbek presidents – reportedly planned for March 31 in Khujand, Tajikistan.
Relations between the three Fergana Valley neighbors have undergone a tremendous transformation over the last few years. This transformation was enabled in part by new leadership in Uzbekistan following the 2016 death of Islam Karimov, who had notoriously bad relations with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan during much of his 30-year tenure as president. Current Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev made deepening regional cooperation a primary goal. While a border deal signed by the two presidents in December 2022 triggered protests in Kyrgyzstan, and a crackdown on dissenters (which ultimately ended in acquittal), it did illustrate better relations between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, whose mutual border had once been mined by Karimov.
Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan’s border clashes in 2021 and 2022 brought the two countries as close to war as they could be, a precipice terrifying enough to inspire serious diplomatic efforts between them over the course of 2023 and 2024. They reached a final agreement in December 2024 on their shared border.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov is expected to sign the border deal into law alongside Rahmon during the latter’s visit this week.
In late February, as committees in the Kyrgyz parliament, the Zhogorku Kenesh, discussed and ultimately approved the agreements on delimitation and demarcation of the border with Tajikistan, the airing of certain details sparked some tensions. In particular, head of the State Committee for National Security Kamchybek Tashiev announced that the village of Dostuk in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region would be transferred to Tajikistan, with residents resettled to another village. A few days later, parliamentary deputy Sultanbay Ayzhigitov of the Yiman Nuru faction criticized parts of the deal. He was quickly expelled from his faction, and criticized in turn by Japarov, who said Ayzhigitov’s remarks were “sheer demagogy.”
Presumably, the agreements will be ratified by the respective full parliaments before presidential signatures.
“The border has been decided forever,” Japarov said amid his commentary about Ayzhigitov’s comments. “That’s it, the point has been made, the interests of both sides have been taken into account.”
The deal between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan addresses a major obstacle to regional cooperation. While the practicalities of making the new border real on the ground will take time, and the Dostuk matter continues to generate some consternation, the border agreement opens an opportunity for a thaw in relations that have long been chilly between the two states. And it contributes to the wider project of enhancing regional cooperation.
Last month, Deputy Chairman of the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers Edil Baisalov announced that the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan would meet for their first-ever trilateral summit on March 31. In remarks made at the 58th session of the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, Baisalov dubbed the upcoming meeting “an important step in strengthening regional cooperation.”
