The year 2024 ended with a new frontier in the global tech race of quantum supremacy. The United States and China each announced ground-breaking advancements in quantum computing with the development of Willow and Tianyan-504, respectively. As these tech rivals push the boundaries of quantum computing, the critical question arises: what new possibilities will this unlock for real-world-applications of quantum computing, and what will national security look like in the quantum-driven future?
In computing, speed is a critical benchmark that determines computational power. Currently, the fastest classical supercomputer processes and stores information using binary bits (0 or 1). In contrast, quantum computers are based on qubits that can exist in a superposition of states – and can be 1 or 0 at the same time. This property enables quantum computers to run multidimensional quantum algorithms, accelerating their speed and defining their computational superiority over classical computers.
However, the dilemma of quantum computing is that by increasing the number of qubits for computational power there is also a corresponding rise in errors. The makers of the Willow chip, produced by Google, claim that they have reduced the error rate with an increase in qubits, thus addressing the quantum computing dilemma. Willow has demonstrated its superiority in random computer sampling (RCS), a test designed to prove that a quantum computer can perform computations better than any advanced classical computer. In this test, Willow surpassed the world’s fastest supercomputers by a jaw-dropping extent: according to its creators, Willow “performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion… years – a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe.”
Meanwhile, China Telecom Quantum Group (CTQG), the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Center for Excellence in Quantum Information and Quantum Physics, and QuantumCTek Co., Ltd. jointly reached their own breakthrough with the Tianyan-504. China’s superconducting quantum computer has set a new domestic record by surpassing the 500 qubits threshold. Additionally, it “matches international standards in key performance metrics such as qubit lifetime and readout fidelity,” a yardstick to measure the reliability of a quantum system to read out the information stored in a qubit.
These developments could lead to significant progress in quantum computing for real-world applications like financial modelling, machine learning, and manufacturing industries. However, they could also have implications for national security. For instance, quantum computers have the potential to decrypt current global encryption systems that protect military, financial, and governmental data. If any state achieves this decryption capability, it could gain access to highly classified information from other states, potentially disrupting their intelligence operations or financial transactions, thus compromising national security. For example, the United States can use the Willow chip, with its error reduction capability and exceptional computational speed, to develop a quantum computer that is capable of breaking standard encryption codes.
Considering this potential threat from quantum computers, China has already adopted a two-pronged strategy: making strategic investments in a quest for quantum supremacy while pre-emptively securing its system from future quantum-driven cyberattacks. For instance, in 2016, China launched a quantum communications satellite, Micius, to protect its communications. Moreover, it has created a 12,000 km quantum communication network, leveraging quantum key distribution (QKD) to create theoretically unbreakable encryption. Now China could further upgrade Tianyan-504 to create advanced cryptographic systems to secure its classified communications. This shows the dual application of quantum encryption for offensive and defensive purposes.
The growing interest of other countries – like Russia, the United Kingdom, and India – in quantum technology also highlights its significance. For instance, India’s heavy investment in the National Quantum Mission (NQM) reflects its growing drive to develop a quantum-based cyber ecosystem. Russia is also competing in this quantum race, having launched its first 50-qubit quantum computer. Pakistan too has launched a foundational initiative for research and development, the National Center for Quantum Computing (NCQ).
The fast-paced development of Willow and Tianyan-504 indicate the urgency with which states are developing quantum computers capable of decrypting current global encryption codes and developing cryptographic systems. In this quantum-driven future, states need to formulate a model that can not only focus on applications of quantum technology but also take pre-emptive measures to secure classified data from quantum based cyberattacks.
