The events that have transpired so far in the realm of foreign policy make it clear: nothing should be taken for granted under a second Donald Trump administration. Under Trump, the United States is no longer a graceful benefactor of allies and regional partners, but a restless giant that demands absolute obedience, and has no hesitation about using blackmail – in the form of tariffs – against friend or foe without distinction. With his lust to acquire more land – whether Greenland or the Panama Canal – and embrace of tariffs as not only a negotiation tool but a mechanism to finance federal spending, Trump is taking U.S. foreign policy back to the era of William McKinley, when the United States was burgeoning imperialist power with high tariffs as the benchmark policy.
However, in the beginning weeks of the Trump administration, Japan has shown signs that it may be able to survive the storm once again. Despite facing domestic criticisms for failing to meet Trump soon after the presidential election, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has vindicated himself by becoming the second world leader to meet Trump in person after the inauguration. In a joint appearance in front of the press, Ishiba received glowing compliments from Trump – who called the Japanese leader “handsome,” “very, very strong,” and “a great prime minister” – and was able to extract firm commitments from his counterpart that the United States would protect Japan. “The United States underscored its unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan, using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear capabilities,” the joint statement said.
While Japan seemed to acquiesce to Trump’s demands to reduce its trade surplus by importing more energy resources, and increasing Japan’s already largest foreign direct investment to the United States, they extracted their own concessions. Trump’s apparent openness to Nippon Steel’s involvement in U.S. Steel’s management was a positive sign for Japanese officials, who were disappointed with the Biden administration’s decision to abort the acquisition deal.
Japan had put a lot of effort into preparing for the Ishiba-Trump summit, yet its success was somewhat surprising in the eyes of experts, who were concerned that the personalities of Trump and Ishiba would not blend well. Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the preparation for the Ishiba-Trump summit began right after Trump’s electoral victory and the study sessions held for that purpose sometimes lasted for hours. A source from a different outlet who was familiar with past summits stated that there was never a summit meeting that involved such rigorous preparation. There were briefings from government bureaucrats and consultations with former prime ministers, and Toyota Akio, the chairman of Toyota Motor Corporation, who happens to be Ishiba’s high school classmate and peer from college.
Apparently, during the preparations, Ishiba was told that he should not bring up negative issues first, but speak in a positive tone. He repeatedly rehearsed a “speaking style without denial”,” in order to avoid any friction it may cause with the reportedly short-tempered president. Ishiba jokingly said that his impression of Trump before their meeting was that he was a “frightening person.” As a special ingredient to rekindle the “bromance” between Trump and former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo that is believed to have worked so well for Japan, the Ishiba government recruited Abe’s former interpreter, Takno Sunao, whose presence and voice Trump was familiar with during his time with Abe.
Much to the relief of the Ishiba government, their extensive preparation has – for the moment – borne fruit, attested by Trump’s remarks affirming the Japan-U.S. relationship, which were repeated in both speech and text.
Even before the Ishiba-Trump summit, there were already signs that the Trump administration understood Japan’s importance as a crucial geopolitical ally. On January 21, a day after Trump was sworn into office, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi, both bilaterally and with the chief diplomats from India and Australia. Together, the four countries make up the so-called Quad, a loose partnership that initially focused on disaster response, but has also expanded into a forum that involves a range of areas, including security – with an eye on China. Rubio’s early outreach was an early signal that the United States would continue to bolster diplomatic ties with Japan. In a similar vein, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed the administration’s intent to further enhance bilateral security cooperation and commitment to apply Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. security treaty to defend the Senkaku Islands – a topic that was reiterated in the joint statement of Ishiba and Trump. The Senkakus, a string of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, are administered by Japan but claimed by China, which has been gradually increasing its presence near the territory.
There is a reason why all the major players in U.S. national security policymaking have found a trusted and important ally in Japan, and that’s because of China’s assertive behavior in both the South and East China Seas and especially in the Taiwan Strait. The sense of urgency that both Washington and Tokyo feel in response to China’s assertiveness was evident in the language regarding the Taiwan Strait in the joint statement. For the first time, the United States and Japan proclaimed that they “opposed any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo [in the Taiwan Strait] by force or coercion.” The insertion of the word “coercion” indicates that U.S. and Japan anticipate a scenario where China may be inclined to use aggressive measures below the threshold of military force – such as cyber attacks or an economic blockade – against Taiwan.
In regards to Chinese action in the South China Sea, the United States and Japan warned that they strongly oppose China’s “unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed features, and threatening and provocative activities.” That type of behavior was on display throughout 2024 as China had repeated run-ins with the Philippines, particularly over the Second Thomas Shoal.
Besides the need to partner up with Japan to contain China’s growing influence in the region, Kiyomiya Ryo from Asahi Shimbun, who was present at the joint press conference, argued that there were also other factors behind Trump’s welcoming reception of Ishiba. In particular, Kiyomiya mentioned the Trump administration’s approval of Japan’s contributions. The perception that Japan is trying to do more – by significantly increasing its defense budget and reducing the trade surplus – was received positively by the Trump administration, which prioritizes reciprocity among all nations. Kiyomiya also highlighted the absence of any pending problems with Japan that are hot-button issues for Trump’s constituents – unlike Canada or Mexico, which Trump has blamed for illegal migration and fentanyl trafficking. Finally, Ishiba’s embrace of the “Make America Great Again” agenda, which he said reflects Trump’s “deep compassion to the forgotten men and women,” may have induced Trump’s appreciation.
The Ishiba-Trump summit symbolized the stability of the Japan-U.S. relations under a disruptive U.S. president. Although many of the policies that were covered and announced during the summit were already established facts, under Trump even such continuity seems strange. Japan may eventually realize that they are not an outlier from the rest of the world, but at the moment all seems well for the Japan-U.S. alliance.
