Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is now in the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC), marking a significant step forward in the pursuit of accountability and justice for the extrajudicial killings perpetrated by state forces during his bloody campaign against illegal drugs. How will Duterte’s arrest in Manila and detention in the Netherlands affect Philippine politics?
Duterte’s arrest was not the first time that a former president in the Philippines was detained after leaving office. Former President Joseph Estrada was arrested on plunder charges three months after he was deposed from power in January 2001. Former President Gloria Arroyo was arrested in October 2012 on the same charges two years after the end of her term.
The arrest of Estrada and Arroyo undercut their influence but this didn’t prevent them from staging a political comeback. Estrada was convicted in 2007, subsequently granted pardon, and even managed to place second in the 2010 presidential race. He was elected mayor of Manila twice, in 2013 and 2016. His two sons are currently senators. In the case of Arroyo, she was acquitted in 2016, represented a Pampanga province district in the House of Representatives, and was voted House Speaker in 2018. Her term as a legislator will end this year
That Estrada and Arroyo were able to return to politics after their detention reflected the strength of their electoral machinery, as well as their ability to survive the changing political landscape and manipulate public opinion. But more crucially, it proved the weakness of the justice system in holding corrupt officials accountable. The Marcos family is the best example of how powerful individuals can evade prosecution and arrest by taking advantage of the loopholes in the law and judicial rules. Not a single member of the clan has spent a day in prison even after their unceremonious ouster from power in 1986. Former First Lady Imelda Marcos was convicted of graft in 2018 but remains free to this day. Human rights groups have flagged the suspicious dismissal of several cases related to the ill-gotten wealth of the Marcoses.
The continued dominance of political dynasties was a factor that led families of victims of extrajudicial killings to file a case with the ICC instead of seeking legal remedies in the local judicial system. Their fear was that pro-Duterte forces could derail a local prosecution and the former president has enough clout to avoid jail time by petitioning for a house or hospital arrest. Now that Duterte has been turned over to the ICC, all eyes are now on whether the international tribunal can deliver justice.
There are worries that Duterte’s arrest could provoke unrest. After Estrada’s arrest in 2001, hundreds of thousands of his supporters protested in the streets and called for a People Power movement to oust the government. Indeed, some of Duterte’s loyalists have called for an uprising against the “betrayal” of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and the alleged violation of the country’s sovereignty.
The image of a weak and imprisoned Duterte could also trigger a wave of sympathy votes for his senatorial candidates in the ongoing midterm election campaign. Some senators and the senatorial candidates endorsed by Marcos have expressed concern over the decision to bring Duterte to the ICC. This could affect the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, the former president’s daughter, which will be presided over by the Senate in June and July. But the Dutertes seem to be preparing for a longer battle as they call on their supporters to support the 2028 presidential bid of the vice president.
Duterte’s behavior is unpredictable and it would be instructive to remember that he won the presidency by claiming that he was an outsider and enemy of the elite. A veteran politician like Duterte could maximize the ICC trial to boost the popularity of his family by depicting himself as a victim of political persecution and international conspiracy.
Duterte’s ICC trial is a landmark event not just for Philippine politics but for Asia as well. Both the Marcos and Duterte camps are actively promoting their self-serving narratives but it must not drown out the perspectives of the families demanding justice and accountability.
Duterte’s allies have been invoking the rights of the former president and the need to uphold due process and the rule of law, which is supremely ironic and hypocritical because these basic tenets of justice were denied to thousands of suspects and innocent civilians who were brutally killed under the administration of the former president.
