In the wake of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s illegitimate declaration of martial law on December 3, the country plunged into a constitutional and political crisis. The world has watched South Korea’s democratic resiliency activated by the citizens’ swift movement to protect the democratic system.
Despite surviving the first vote calling for impeaching him, Yoon was impeached by the National Assembly on December 14, 11 days after his failed attempt to wrest control of the country’s entire political system through martial law.
Since then, Yoon has become the first sitting president in South Korea’s history to be arrested and indicted. He currently faces charges of treason, the only crime that a sitting president can be investigated for under the Constitution. According to the prosecution’s indictment, Yoon is called “a ringleader” committing treason through the declaration of martial law. Yoon and his lawyers have consistently claimed that his decision to declare martial law cannot be subject to judicial review as it is part of his presidential authority. However, the main focus of the Constitutional Court’s ongoing impeachment trial of Yoon is to determine whether his declaration of martial law was illegal.
Should the Constitutional Court uphold Yoon’s impeachment, he would be immediately removed from office. (At the moment, while Yoon’s duties have been suspended since the National Assembly impeachment vote, he is still technically the sitting president – despite his arrest and indictment.) Considering the damning testimonies of military officers who were ordered to arrest lawmakers directly by Yoon, it seems likely that the court will rule in favor of impeachment.
Since the Constitutional Court kicked off the impeachment trials on January 14, it will likely issue its ruling by early March, considering the time span of the impeachment trials of other South Korean presidents in 2004 and 2017. If the court does indeed confirm Yoon’s impeachment, then South Korea would need to hold a special presidential election within 60 days.
Who Will Run for the Special Presidential Election?
The DP’s presidential candidacy has de facto been clinched by Lee Jae-myung, who was the party’s contender against Yoon in the 2022 presidential election. He was defeated by 0.7 percentage points, the narrowest margin in South Korea’s history. The DP is now completely controlled by pro-Lee lawmakers in the wake of its landslide victory in the 2024 general elections. There is no contender who can tip the balance within the party, although there are some concerns among a minority of DP backers over the ongoing trials against Lee.
A court sentenced Lee to one year in prison and two years of probation for violating the Public Official Election Act in November. Under that ruling, he would also be prohibited from running for any public office. However, the penalties will not be implemented until Lee has exhausted all his options for appeal. Considering the timeline for the future presidential election should the Constitutional Court uphold the impeachment of Yoon, Lee will likely be able to run for president.
Given the circumstances, it seems likely that the DP candidate will be Yoon’s successor. When South Korea held a special presidential election in the wake of the Constitutional Court’s ruling to uphold the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye, no political figures in the PPP’s previous incarnation expected the party to win. The results of the election were easily anticipated: Moon Jae-in of the DP won a landslide victory with no challenges during the campaign.
However, the scenario may unfold quite differently this time.
Recent polls show the conservatives’ unchanged support for the ruling party, unlike the devastating one-digit approval rating that was recorded toward Park during the events of her impeachment. Some polls even show that the PPP’s approval rating has outstripped that of the DP.
The PPP thinks it can defeat Lee again, due to the “judicial risk” stemming from his multiple trials. Thus, there are a number of hopefuls who will likely announce their bid to represent the PPP in a special presidential election. Many are the same politicians originally aiming to be Yoon’s successor in 2027 (which was when Yoon would have completed his only term). The key political figures within the PPP to watch are Hong Joon-pyo, Oh Se-hoon, and Kim Moon-soo.
Hong is the mayor of Daegu Metropolitan City, the main powerhouse for the conservatives. A senior politician who previously served as a five-term lawmaker and governor of South Gyeongsang Province, Hong was the PPP’s presidential candidate in 2017, the election held following Park’s impeachment. He ran again to become the president in 2021 but was defeated by Yoon in the PPP’s primary election. As Hong failed to secure votes from PPP members during the primary election, he ran for the mayor of Daegu to shore up his support among the party’s base. Now he is expected to run for the presidency again, in what will likely be the 72-year-old’s last chance to reach South Korea’s highest office.
Oh, 64, is the mayor of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, and the first four-term mayor of the city in South Korea’s history. Due to his strong connection to Seoul, he may have a better chance of defeating Lee, as the PPP’s weakness is gaining support from young people and those living in the metropolitan areas near Seoul. In the general elections last year, the PPP only secured 11 of 48 seats in Seoul, and won only seven of 60 and two of 14 seats in the neighboring Gyeonggi Province (the largest province in South Korea) and Incheon Metropolitan City, respectively. Half of South Korea’s entire population lives in these metropolitan areas. However, Oh’s influence within the PPP is weak, considering his low approval ratings among the party members. He could be considered a long shot to serve as the party’s presidential candidate.
Kim, 73, a former third-time lawmaker who also served as two-time governor of Gyeonggi Province, is the minister of Employment and Labor. He is the populist hopeful among the PPP members due to his loyal support for Yoon. As the majority of the PPP lawmakers and members are still rooting for Yoon to return to office, Kim’s far-right stance on policies and issues has brought huge attention from the party members, leading him to be the top potential candidate for the presidential election. However, considering his far-right remarks over historical disputes with Japan, labor, and political issues, Kim may be the best candidate for the DP and Lee to compete with. It’s unlikely that moderates will vote for Kim.
Han Dong-hoon, the former leader of PPP who once was a right-hand man for Yoon as the justice minister, is unlikely to run for the special presidential election. He might struggle to differentiate himself from Yoon given they shared the same career background as former prosecutors. Also, Han clearly confronted Yoon over his declaration of martial law, so he could not expect to receive votes from pro-Yoon PPP members during his campaign. However, Han, at 51 years old, could be the PPP’s best bet to win the presidency in a future race, depending on his next moves in the coming years.
