An Andy Burnham coronation is not the answer to Labour’s problems

The Edge Green Street ground of Ashton Town Football Club might not seem the obvious place in which to spark a revolution, but it was carefully chosen by Andy Burnham as the location for his Makerfield by-election victory speech.

With the winning candidate dressed down in polo shirt and slacks, in a grassroots sort of venue, the “optics” of it all underlined his status as tribune of the people. The prime minister, we may note, is rarely seen without a suit and tie, and has struggled to shake off his reputation as a habitue of the VIP box at Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium.

Mr Burnham stuck to the theme of his campaign, telling his audience: “We’ve been on a path for 40 years that simply hasn’t worked.” Places such as the towns and villages of Makerfield have suffered as a result. Once again, he placed himself at the head of a movement: “This is now the change moment.”

“Change” is a useful slogan that has swept Mr Burnham to an impressive victory. He is a highly experienced and skilful operator. By contrast, Reform UK fielded a substandard candidate with an unenviable social media history.

Even so, Makerfield was an almost ideal Reform constituency, and in normal circumstances it would have been an easy win for Nigel Farage’s party. Makerfield is overwhelmingly white, has a high proportion of older voters, and registered a 66 per cent Leave vote in the 2016 referendum. Reform also won all the local council seats at the elections last month.

That Mr Burnham scored an absolute majority of the votes, and a 20-point lead over his “local” Reform rival, is testament to his own past and present dedication to the area, and the way he struck a chord with so many voters disillusioned with politics. Mr Burnham offered them “unity”, “hope” and, most potent of all, the chance to oust Sir Keir Starmer.

Will he? If this is “the change moment”, when will “change” materialise? It is difficult to know exactly what the protagonists in this shadow fight for No 10 are planning.

Sir Keir says he is “not going to walk away”, and that he will fight any leadership challenge. But he may be bluffing – he could hardly admit he’s sorely tempted to throw in the towel and take up a more dignified, Blair-style international role. Sources close to Wes Streeting indicate he might launch his campaign in earnest next week, but no one has yet seen the names of the 81 supporters he needs to actually trigger a contest.

Mr Burnham, 56, has the definite air of a middle-aged man in a hurry, but some of his aides are briefing that he’d be content to wait until early September for Sir Keir, if he graciously conceded now, to vacate No 10. During this interregnum, Mr Burnham and his newly recruited high-powered advisers can work out a plan for government.

The King of the North doesn’t seem so keen on the noisy “battle of ideas” that Mr Streeting has in mind, or to take on the obviously well-briefed Sir Keir in verbal combat on policy (the prime minister has also let it be known he has a team, and funding, ready for any leadership election).

There is wild speculation that a succession of debilitating resignations by ministers, or an overwhelming number of Labour MPs nominating his rivals, will make Sir Keir’s position as leader de facto untenable – but the gossips also say he is stubborn, and that his wife Victoria wants him to fight on. What the wider party and the British people would prefer to happen seems almost irrelevant.

All will probably not become clear for some time, not least because it is up to Labour’s National Executive Committee to set a timetable only after a contest is triggered. The selectorate comprises an unpredictable mixture of Labour activists and a far wider penumbra of less engaged affiliated supporters in the trade unions. Many of the latter will, bizarrely, ordinarily be Reform voters.

In the deputy leadership election that Lucy Powell won last year, the turnout was extremely low – only 17 per cent of the 970,642 eligible voters joined in. It might well be higher this time, given that they’ll be picking the PM, as if in a game show – but also harder to call.

For now, the one thing that can unify Labour – and, indeed, anyone who values decency in public life – is the humiliation suffered by Reform UK at the hands of Mr Burnham. His messages landed well, and he was rightly the beneficiary of tactical voting by Greens, Liberal Democrats and some Conservatives. Many were appalled by the Reform candidate’s views and by Mr Farage’s inflammatory and irresponsible reaction to the murder of Henry Nowak – the call for “pure, cold rage” and the ugly riots and increasingly racialised claims that followed.

It would appear that even as the Labour Party embarks on another of its periodic civil wars, Reform has peaked and is now poorly positioned to make capital out of Labour’s divisions. That is one change all of us should welcome.