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I’m an expert on Iran. Here’s what could happen next after US strikes

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I’m an expert on Iran. Here’s what could happen next after US strikes

After U.S. and Israeli missiles struck Iran’s nuclear sites in June 2025, Tehran responded with a limited attack on the American airbase in Qatar.

Five years before that, a U.S. drone strike against Qasem Soleimani, head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, was met with followed by an attack on two American bases in Iraq shortly thereafter.

Expect none of that restraint by Iran’s leaders following the latest U.S. and Israeli military operation currently playing out in the Gulf nation.

In the early hours of Feb. 28, 2026, hundreds of missiles struck multiple sites in Iran. Part of “Operation Epic Fury,” as the U.S. Department of Defense has called it, the strikes follow months of U.S. military buildup in the region.

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But they also come after apparent diplomatic efforts, in the shape of a series of nuclear talks in Oman and Geneva aimed at a peaceful resolution.

The Trump administration appears to have expanded its aims beyond removing Iran’s nuclear and non-nuclear military threat
The Trump administration appears to have expanded its aims beyond removing Iran’s nuclear and non-nuclear military threat (ISNA/AFP via Getty Images)

Any such deal is surely now completely off the table. In scale and scope, the U.S. and Israel attack goes far beyond any previous strikes on the Gulf nation.

In response, Iran has said it will use “crushing” force. As an expert on Middle East affairs and a former senior official at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, I believe the calculus both in Washington and more so in Tehran is very different from earlier confrontations: Iran’s leaders almost certainly see this as an existential threat given President Donald Trump’s statement and the military campaign already underway. And there appears to be no obvious off-ramp to avoid further escalation.

What we should expect now is a response from Tehran that utilizes all of its capabilities – even though they have been significantly degraded. And that should be a worry for all nations in the region and beyond.

The apparent aims of the US operation

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It is important to note that we are in the early stages of this conflict – much is unknown.

As of Feb. 28, it is unclear who has been killed among Iran’s leadership and to what extent Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities have been degraded. The fact that ballistic missiles have been launched at regional states that host U.S. military bases suggests that, at a minimum, Iran’s military capabilities have not been entirely wiped out.

Iran fired over 600 missiles against Israel last June during their 12-day war, but media reporting and Iranian statements over the past month suggested that Iran managed to replenish some of its missile inventory, which it is now using.

Clearly Washington is intent on crippling Iran’s ballistic program, as it is that capability that allows Iran to threaten the region most directly.

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A sticking point in the negotiations in Geneva and Oman was U.S. officials’ insistence that both Iran’s ballistic missiles and its funneling of support to proxy groups in the region be on the table, along with the longstanding condition that Tehran ends all uranium enrichment. Tehran has long resisted attempts to have limits on its ballistic missiles as part of any negotiated nuclear deal given their importance in Iran’s national security doctrine.

This explains why some U.S. and Israeli strikes appear to be aimed at taking out Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile launch sites and production facilities and storage locations for such weapons.

With no nuclear weapon, Iran’s ballistic missiles have been the country’s go-to method for responding to any threat. And so far in the current conflict, they have been used on nations including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

‘It will be yours to take’

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But the Trump administration appears to have expanded its aims beyond removing Iran’s nuclear and non-nuclear military threat. The latest strikes have gone after leadership, too.

Among the locations of the first U.S.-Israeli strikes was a Tehran compound in which the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in known to reside, and Israel’s prime minister has confirmed that the 86-year-old leader was a target of the operation.

While the status of the supreme leader and other key members of Iran’s leadership remains unknown as of this writing, it is clear that the U.S. administration hopes that regime change will follow Operation Epic Fury. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” Trump told Iranians via a video message recorded during the early hours of the attack.

Regime change carries risks for Trump

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Signaling a regime change operation may encourage Iranians unhappy with decades of repressive rule and economic woes to continue where they left off in January – when hundreds of thousands took to the street to protest.

But it carries risks for the U.S. and its interests. Iran’s leaders will no longer feel constrained, as they did after the Soleimani assassination and the June 2025 conflict. On those occasions, Iran responded in a way that was not even proportionate to its losses – limited strikes on American military bases in the region.

About the author

Javed Ali is an Associate Professor of Practice of Public Policy, University of Michigan. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Now the gloves are off, and each side will be trying to land a knockout blow. But what does that constitute? The U.S. administration appears to be set on regime change. Iran’s leadership will be looking for something that goes beyond its previous retaliatory strikes – and that likely means American deaths. That eventuality has been anticipated by Trump, who warned that there might be American casualties.

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So why is Trump willing to risk that now? It is clear to me that despite talk of progress in the rounds of diplomatic talks, Trump has lost his patience with the process.

On Feb. 26, after the latest round of talks in Geneva, we didn’t hear much from the U.S. side. Trump’s calculus may have been that Iran wasn’t taking the hint – made clear by adding a second carrier strike group to the other warships and hundreds of fighter aircraft sent to the region over the past several weeks – that Tehran had no option other than agreeing to the U.S. demands.

What happens next

What we don’t know is whether the U.S. strategy is now to pause and see if an initial round of strikes has forced Iran to sue for peace – or whether the initial strikes are just a prelude to more to come.

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For now, the diplomatic ship appears to have sailed. Trump seems to have no appetite for a deal now – he just wants Iran’s regime gone.

In order to do that, he has made a number of calculated gambles. First politically and legally: Trump did not go through Congress before ordering Operation Epic Fury. Unlike 23 years ago when President George W. Bush took the U.S. into Iraq, there is no war authorization giving the president cover.

Instead, White House lawyers must have assessed that Trump can carry out this operation under his Article 2 powers to act as commander in chief. Even so, the 1973 War Powers Act will mean the clock is now ticking. If the attacks are not concluded in 60 days, the administration will have to go back to Congress and say the operation is complete, or work with Congress for an authorization to use force or a formal declaration of war.

The second gamble is whether Iranians will heed his call to remove a regime that many have long wanted gone. Given the ferocity of the regime’s response to the protests in January, which resulted in the deaths of thousands of Iranians, are Iranians willing to face down Iran’s internal security forces and drive what remains of the regime from power?

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Third, the U.S. administration has made a bet that the Iranian regime – even confronted with an existential threat – does not have the capability to drag the U.S. into a lengthy conflict to inflict massive casualties.

And this last point is crucial. Experts know Tehran has no nuclear bomb and only has a limited stockpile of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles.

But it can lean on unconventional capabilities. Terrorism is a real concern – either through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, which coordinates Iran’s unconventional warfare, or through its partnership with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Or actors like the Houthis in Yemen or Shia militias in Iraq may seek to conduct attacks against U.S. interests in solidarity with Iran or directed to do so by the regime.

A mass casualty event may put political pressure on Trump, but I cannot see it leading to U.S. boots on ground in Iran. The American public doesn’t have the appetite for such an eventuality, and that would necessitate Trump gaining Congressional approval, which for now has not yet materialized.

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No one has a crystal ball, and it is early in an operation that will likely go on for days, if not longer. But one thing is clear: Iran’s regime is facing an existential threat. Do not expect it to show restraint.

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Carabao Cup final – the match that will launch an era of Arsenal dominance?

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Carabao Cup final - the match that will launch an era of Arsenal dominance?

Asked on Friday about the possibility of the Carabao Cup being a springboard for Arsenal’s season, Arteta said: “Certainly, yes, because winning a trophy helps more for sure. It gives you confidence, it gives you the feeling that when it comes to that moment, you can do it, and you have enough resources to achieve what you want.”

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Comedian and Taskmaster Greg Davies to host Bafta TV awards 2026

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Comedian and Taskmaster Greg Davies to host Bafta TV awards 2026

The actor, himself nominated for a 2013 Bafta Television Award for playing Ken in the BBC’s sitcom Cuckoo, said: “I see the whole event as an opportunity to wave a flag for this beloved medium and, with the exception of one commissioner, two execs and a co-star that I have personal beef with, I will do everything I can to ensure it’s a night of warm celebration for all.”

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Man City end Arsenal’s quadruple hopes with League Cup final humbling

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Man City end Arsenal’s quadruple hopes with League Cup final humbling

Arsenal  Arrizabalaga; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié; Zubimendi, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard. 
Substitutes  Raya, Mosquera, Jesus, Martinelli, Norgaard, Madueke, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly, Dowman.

Manchester City Trafford; Nunes, Khusanov, Ake, O’Reilly; Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Cherki; Semenyo, Haaland, Doku.
Substitutes  Donnarumma, Reijnders, Stones, Marmoush, Kovacic, Nico, Ait-Nouri, Savinho, Foden.

Referee: Peter Bankes (Liverpool)

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Arsenal handed third injury scare hours after Carabao Cup final defeat to Man City | Football

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Arsenal handed third injury scare hours after Carabao Cup final defeat to Man City | Football

Manchester City have secured the first silverware of the season after Arsenal failed to deliver at Wembley.

The quadruple dream is over and the Gunners must now pick up the pieces after a sobering setback.

For City, it has breathed life into their campaign after a dismal Champions League exit this week.

Kepa gamble backfires spectacularly

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Mikel Arteta decided to keep faith in Kepa Arrizabalaga after starting the Spaniard in each round of the competition leading up to the final at Wembley today.

Pep Guardiola did likewise with James Trafford, but it was Arsenal who paid the price for dropping one of their best players. From the moment the second-half kicked off, Kepa dallied on the ball, inviting the pressure that would inevitably swarm all over the Gunners and trigger their downfall.

Raya has been spectacular this season, the best goalkeeper in the Premier League by some margin and in sublime form. Had he started, Sunday may have been a very different story.

Arsenal still have plenty left to fight for (Picture: Getty)
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Old Arsenal fears reignited

We have seen Arsenal collapse in the past. Past failures have so often been used as a stick to beat them with but things have felt different this season.

Victory today would have gone some way in erasing the lingering fears over another derailment . But defeat at Wembley could serve as a catalyst for something much bleaker.

FBL-ENG-LCUP-ARSENAL-MAN CITY
Arteta got his biggest decision on the day wrong (Picture: Getty)

Arsenal are still fighting on three fronts, in control of the Premier League title race and well-placed to continue marching on in Europe. But the effects of today could be season-altering. The woeful second-half showing was as bad as anything served up by them this term on the stage where they needed to be their best.

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O’Reilly steps up

City needed a hero at Wembley and they found a home-grown one. With Phil Foden only coming on as an injury time substitute, left-back O’Reilly stepped up as City’s savour with two headers to save their season.

City were fantastic in the second period to a man and fed off Arsenal’s apprehension but it was the 21-year-old set the standard when they needed inspiration.  

Tony Mogan, live sports editor

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Controversial ‘new town’ plans for village near Greater Manchester scrapped by Government

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Manchester Evening News

Locals previously blasted the plans are ‘ridiculous’ as protests were held in the area

A ‘new town’ proposals for Adlington in Cheshire have been scrapped in a new decision made by the Government. The generation of new towns, which were revealed on Sunday (March 22) are tipped to see thousands of new homes built and ‘create well-connected communities’ through jobs, transport links and green spaces.

However the news may come as a relief to those living in the Cheshire East village close to Greater Manchester, who previously blasted the plans that could have seen up to 20,000 new homes built in the area.

The proposed £8 billion scheme would have seen 2,400 acres of greenbelt land in Adlington developed into Adlington New Town. Angry locals previously dubbed the plans as ‘ridiculous‘ and said they would ‘basically join Stockport and Macclesfield into one big housing estate.’

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Many of the 1,000 residents in the area also feared the development will spoil the character of the village and destroy wildlife and farmland, raising concerns about loss of livelihoods.

The proposals last year also prompted politicians in Stockport to warn that local services there could have been left ‘overstretched.’ The site was under four miles from Woodford in Stockport. Developers said the project would have included schools and health centres as they also vowed to reopen the Grade I-listed Adlington Hall.

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It prompted a number of protests to take place last year, as signs appeared in and around village including on the busy A523 London Road.

The New Towns Project, championed by former deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, last year saw a dozen areas selected for construction. In a fresh announcement, the Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government revealed the seven locations that had been selected for the new town developments.

Adlington, among five others, were areas that were assessed by the Government before a decision was made that the proposals were not to be taken forward. The seven locations that have been earmarked are Tempsford, Leeds South Bank, Crews Hill and Chase Park, Thamesmead, Brabazon and West Innovation Arc, Milton Keynes and Manchester Victoria North, which is already well underway in the Collyhurst area.

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Victoria North, which will see 15,000 homes built across 390-acres of land, is already well underway, with plans having first emerged seven years ago. Last year it reached a major milestone as the first tenants finally moved into their brand new council homes in Collyhurst.

Described as the ‘most ambitious housebuilding programme in more than half a century’, it has received Government backing in the newly-released list of other ‘new towns’.

However the Government has decided not to pursue five other locations as well as Adlington, which are Heyford Park, Marlcombe, Plymouth, South Barking and Wychavon Town.

The proposed names the Government is considering include Elizabethtown (after the Queen), Pankhurst (after suffragette Emmeline), Attleeton (after ex-PM), Athelstan (first King of England) and Seacole (after nurse Mary), the Times reported.

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In its manifesto, Labour pledged to begin work on 1.5 million new homes over the course of the Parliament, to expand homeownership to more Britons. According to the Government, the new towns will create ‘affordable and balanced communities’ with the schools, health facilities and community infrastructure neighbourhoods need, as well as improved public transport, walking and cycling infrastructure.

A public consultation on proposed locations and draft planning policy is open until May 18. The final locations will be confirmed later this year.

Housing Secretary Steve Reed said: “People want real change – homes they can afford, local infrastructure that works, and good jobs in thriving communities. Our next generation of new towns marks a turning point in how we build for the future.

“From the ground up, we’re planning whole communities with homes, jobs, transport links and green spaces designed together — so we can give families the security and opportunities they deserve.”

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Armed police swarm Cambridge station and area ‘evacuated’ after ‘man with knife on train’

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Cambridgeshire Live

A man has been arrested

Police have swarmed a city train station following reports the area has been evacuated after a man was seen ‘with a weapon.’

Onlookers have taken to social media to report seeing a ‘massive’ police presence at Cambridge train station this evening (Sunday).

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One X user said: “Any idea what is happening at Cambridge train station. It’s been evacuated and there are about 10 police cars outside.”

Greater Anglia said on X in response to a passenger enquiry: “There’s nothing currently publicly available. If you’re at the station I’d advise listening for any announcements.”

Cambridgeshire Police said: “Police were called at 6.26pm today (22 March) with reports of a man with a weapon on a train travelling between Royston and Cambridge.

“Armed response officers were deployed to Cambridge Train Station and the train, which was due to arrive in Cambridge at 6.37pm, was held just before the station.

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“Officers boarded the train and a 25-year-old man from London was arrested on suspicion of possession of an offensive weapon. He remains in custody at Parkside Police Station.

“No one was injured. The station was closed as a precaution and reopened shortly after 7pm.

“Officers are working with British Transport Police as part of the investigation. This appears to be an isolated incident but to reassure the public there will be an increased police presence at the station.”

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Channel 4’s ‘epic’ new reality series branded ‘perfect’ as fans left wanting more

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Wales Online

A new adventure series has debuted on Channel 4, with fans quickly sharing their thoughts on social media

A fresh adventure reality programme has launched on Channel 4, and viewers are already impressed.

The Hunt: Prey vs Predator features ten contestants embarking on an exceptional test of endurance and tactical prowess, competing for a prize pot of up to £100,000.

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Set within an expansive, isolated woodland, participants face off against one another in a prey versus predator format. They must endure intense hunts where the prey search for cash, whilst predators pursue them, until a sole survivor remains to secure the full prize money.

“Popularity, plotting, power plays, loyalty and friendship will all come into play and will, in fact, be crucial – as victory will depend not just on stealth in the wild, but skill as a social animal,” the official synopsis teases.

The opening instalment of the “epic” new programme aired on Sunday (March 22), with “obsessed” viewers swiftly taking to social media to share their reactions, reports the Mirror.

READ MORE: Celebrity Bake Off fans all say the same thing as new judge makes debutREAD MORE: ITV Celebrity Sabotage viewers fume over ‘appallingly bad’ detail minutes in

“Great format and contestants. So far so good – well done,” one person posted on X (formerly Twitter), whilst another commented: “This is gooood.”

A third remarked: “Between this and Handcuffed, Channel 4 is kind of bringing back good reality competition shows,” with another similarly posting: “This is perfect viewing. Need more eps asap.”

A fifth viewer echoed these sentiments, stating: “Channel 4 getting rights back to #BigBrother vibe at mo,” whilst another contributed: “Love the premise of the show.”

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Whilst most of the feedback was positive, some viewers were somewhat puzzled by the programme’s distinctive format, with one individual commenting: “Finding this new reality series #TheHunt very random !!! Got classic Byker Grove vibes with the look. Missing handcuffed series already lol.”

Another contributed: “So it’s all bogus or a re-enactment just like in Hunted, otherwise the camera operators would give them away.”

Every episode holds the potential for an exciting twist, with the participants’ roles being reversed once a predator captures a prey – resulting in the entire game being turned upside down.

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Each competitor must wear state-of-the-art tracking technology, meaning they cannot hide for extended periods in the thick forest hunting ground. Consequently, they must keep moving to stay in the competition or surrender their earnings.

Smart alliances, tactical teamwork, and psychological tactics are crucial to survival, as at the conclusion of each hunt, one predator will face removal from the game back at a futuristic basecamp.

At the beginning of the opening episode, Nathan, Chris, Mia, Chloe and Roy were selected to be predators, with Shelley, Mel, Ameer, Marc and Charlotte designated as prey – with each of them beginning with £1,000.

Six competitors exchanged positions at the conclusion of the first hunt, bringing the total prize pot to £10,000, shortly before the first predator was eliminated from the game.

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The Hunt: Prey vs Predator is available to stream on Channel 4

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17-bed Victorian mansion in Durham goes on market for 1.7m

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17-bed Victorian mansion in Durham goes on market for 1.7m

Farnley Tower, located on The Avenue, is described as a “prominent property” on one of the city’s most sought after private residential addresses, while just a 10 minute walk from the city centre.

Currently offering a hotel and residential development opportunity, the building is full of character and history, with distinctive Victorian architecture throughout.

Inside, the property is arranged over four floors and boasts 17 en-suite bedrooms.

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

Many of the rooms enjoy views towards Durham Castle and Durham Cathedral.

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On the ground floor, there is a bar and restaurant area alongside a reception space and five of the bedrooms. A further bedroom is located on the half landing.

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

Farnley Tower (Image: BRADLEY HALL)

You can view the property here: Farnley Tower, The Avenue

The remaining 11 bedrooms are spread across the upper floors, providing extensive accommodation suitable for large families and groups.

The property is within easy reach of the wide range of amenities available in Durham, including restaurants, bars, shops and cafes, as well as its well-known historic attractions.

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Agents say the property offers a “rare opportunity” to buy a distinctive building in a prime location in the city.

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Americans are more confused on goals of Iran war now than when it began, poll says

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Americans are more confused on goals of Iran war now than when it began, poll says

Americans are more confused about the Trump administration’s goals in launching a war with Iran now than when President Donald Trump initiated the military strikes in February, a new survey from CBS News and YouGov found.

In a survey conducted between March 17 and March 20, approximately 68 percent of the 3,300 respondents said the administration had yet to clearly explain the goals of attacking Iran.

That’s six percentage points higher than when the same question was asked in a similar survey conducted between March 2 and March 4 – shortly after the U.S. and Israel launched missiles against Iran.

In that CBS News / YouGov survey, 62 percent of respondents said the administration had not clearly explained its goals. At the time, 38 percent of people said they had been clearly explained – now, that number is 32 percent.

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Trump initially said the goals of the war were to eliminate Iran’s navy, ensuring it cannot attack neighbors in the Middle East, and that it cannot produce a nuclear weapon.

(AFP via Getty Images)

But it’s unclear how much of a threat Iran posed to the U.S. During a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing last week, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard indicated in her written opening statement that Iran was not rebuilding its nuclear facilities damaged by the U.S. in strikes last year.

Although not a stated goal, the president has also made comments indicating he wanted a say in choosing a new leader for the regime. When asked about the president’s goals in early March, 80 percent of respondents said the president was trying to change leadership in Iran.

Administration officials have also given different timelines. Trump initially said the conflict could last anywhere from four to five weeks, or potentially longer. But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth later told reporters there was no timeline for the war.

While the president has insisted the U.S. is close to fulfilling its goals in Iran, Trump said in early March he wouldn’t take anything less than “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

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But as recently as Friday, Trump indicated he could be winding down the conflict soon because the U.S. has achieved objectives “ahead of schedule” – however, he said that would not mean a ceasefire.

Polling has found that Americans are largely disapproving of Trump's decision to go to war with Iran
Polling has found that Americans are largely disapproving of Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran (Getty Images)

The shifting explanations have led to confusion; even members of the president’s political party have criticized the changing statements.

When asked by ABC News what the primary objective of the war is, Republican Senator Thom Tillis replied: “I don’t know, and I think it’s a real problem.”

Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned last week, saying he could not support the war with Iran because there was no evidence it posed a threat to the U.S. The resignation has led to more questions about the U.S.’s intention in starting the war with Iran.

The Independent has asked the White House for comment.

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Overwhelmingly, Americans think ending the conflict with Iran as quickly as possible is important for the U.S. More than half of respondents to the CBS News / YouGov survey said that changing Iran’s leadership to people who are pro-U.S. was not important.

Many are not confident the war will last a matter of weeks, 37 percent believe the war could go on for months and 14 percent said it could continue for years.

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Pedestrian dies after A64 crash at Grimston Bar and Hopgrove

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Pedestrian dies after A64 crash at Grimston Bar and Hopgrove

North Yorkshire Police is appealing for witnesses after a fatal crash on the A64 near York on Saturday (March 21).

It happened at about 9.40pm on the eastbound carriageway of the A64 between Grimston Bar and the Hopgrove roundabout, and involved a pedestrian and vehicles.

A police spokesperson said: “Sadly, the pedestrian suffered fatal injuries.

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“We are urging any witnesses, or anyone with relevant dashcam footage, to come forward. We would particularly like to hear from anyone who may have seen a man on foot near Grimston Bar or the A64 last night.

“If you can assist the investigation, please email mcit@northyorkshire.police.uk, or call North Yorkshire Police on 101 and speak to the Major Collision Investigation Team. Please quote reference 12260050942 when passing information.”

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