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Israel-Hezbollah fire escalates, Israeli troops push into south Lebanon

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Israel-Hezbollah fire escalates, Israeli troops push into south Lebanon

BEIRUT (AP) — Israel sent troops into southern Lebanon on Tuesday and warned residents of more than 80 villages to evacuate as the Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group said it was ready for an “open war” with Israel in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The development came after Hezbollah fired rockets and launched drones early Monday toward northern Israel. Israel retaliated with a wave of airstrikes that killed 40 people in Lebanon, including a Palestinian militant and a Hezbollah intelligence official in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

That death toll is a revised figure from an earlier one reported by the Health Ministry, which said Monday that 52 people died in the strikes. Lebanese Health Minister Rakan Nassereddine told reporters on Tuesday that 40 died.

Lebanon also said 246 people were wounded and tens of thousands displaced.

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Hezbollah said on Tuesday morning it fired two salvos of rockets toward northern Israel while Israeli airstrikes overnight damaged a building housing Hezbollah’s TV and radio stations. Beirut’s southern suburbs saw a series of strikes early on Tuesday afternoon that came without warning, and the Israeli military later said it targeted Hezbollah officials.

The Israeli military’s Arabic spokesman, Avichay Adraee, warned residents of more than 80 villages and towns in southern Lebanon to leave, adding that people should not return to these areas until further notice.

A senior Hezbollah official said that after more than a year of abiding by a ceasefire as Israel’s strikes continued on Lebanon, the group’s patience has ended, leaving it with no option but to fight Israel. “The Zionist enemy wanted an open war, which it has not stopped since the ceasefire agreement,” Mohamoud Komati said.

“So let it be an open war,” added the Hezbollah official.

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Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United States, France and Egypt on Tuesday that Hezbollah has been firing rockets from areas north of the Litani River.

The Lebanese government said in January that Hezbollah weapons and military facilities have been removed from the area south of the river and along the border with Israel, and that Lebanese troops are in full control of the area between the river and the border.

The Israeli military said Tuesday it has sent additional troops into southern Lebanon and took new positions on several strategic points close to the border. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said the Lebanese army was evacuating some of its positions along the border.

Adraee, the Israeli spokesman, posted on X that the troops’ movements inside Lebanon is part of efforts to bolster Israel’s forward defense system and create an addition layer of security.

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Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said the Lebanese army was evacuating some of its border positions.

A Lebanese military official confirmed to The Associated Press that Israeli troops had moved into several areas in southern Lebanon on Tuesday and that the Lebanese army was “repositioning” in the area. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military movements.

The U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, later Tuesday said its peacekeepers saw Israeli troops making forays across the border and then returning to Israel. It wasn’t immediately clear how many soldiers remained inside Lebanon.

Hezbollah began firing into Israel a day after the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. After months of low-level fighting, that conflict escalated into a full-scale war in September 2024 and Israel later launched a ground invasion of Lebanon.

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Israeli forces withdrew from most of southern Lebanon after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire halted the fighting in November 2024 but continued to occupy five points on the Lebanese side of the border. Israel also continued with near-daily strikes, primarily in southern Lebanon, saying that Hezbollah has been trying to rebuild its forces in the area.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry also said Tuesday that 397 people had been killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon after the ceasefire took effect and before Hezbollah launched its latest attacks.

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Sauna and wellness centre could be built near popular Welsh beach

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Wales Online

The site is also home to a Domino’s Pizza outlet and tanning salon

Plans to create a new sauna and wellness centre in the seaside town of Porthcawl have been handed in to Bridgend County Borough Council. If approved they could see the new centre created close to the entrance of the town in a mixed-use development off the Portway, Porthcawl.

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The building is currently home to a Domino’s Pizza outlet and tanning salon as well as office spaces.

The proposal was submitted to the council in February 2026 for the site located close to the Hillsboro car park, and just a stone’s throw away from the town’s Sandy Bay Beach.

Developers say they are requesting a change of use to part of the ground floor from offices to a sauna and wellness centre, complete with a sauna, ice baths and shower facilities.

It is noted that while there will be “minor internal layout alterations” at the site, there will be no external alterations made to the property. Make sure you never miss Wales’ biggest updates by getting our daily newsletter.

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It also added that while planning permission has been granted for the first floor to be converted into four residential apartments, this has not yet been implemented and is not currently intended to be implemented.

The plans for the new facility will now go before the council’s planning department for a decision in the coming months.

Its submission comes just weeks after a mobile sauna located on Rest Bay was forced to close temporarily after the council rejected a retrospective planning application for it to operate there.

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The council refused the application on the grounds that it was “unacceptable in principle”.

Owners of the popular Hikitalo sauna said they were “heartbroken” and would look to appeal the local authority’s decision for the idyllic site overlooking the sea. You can read more about that here.

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Trump, Rubio and Hegseth can’t seem to get their stories straight on rationale for Iran war as Mideast explodes

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Trump, Rubio and Hegseth can’t seem to get their stories straight on rationale for Iran war as Mideast explodes

The White House continued to offer a conflicting and rapidly evolving rationale for why Iran presented such an imminent threat to U.S. forces and their allies across the Middle East that President Donald Trump needed to use military force, as the joint U.S. and Israeli campaign concluded its fourth day on Tuesday.

A disjointed messaging effort appears to be hindering the administration’s ability to sell the war to the American people though, as polling indicates that a majority of Americans do not yet understand why the U.S. is at war with Iran now — or simply do not accept the White House’s reasoning.

On Tuesday, the president offered his longest remarks to date on the matter. At a bilateral meeting with Germany’s chancellor, he claimed without any proof that Iranian forces were preparing to attack U.S. forces before the U.S. or Israel launched any attacks at all.

“We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first,” said the president. “They were going to attack if we didn’t do it. They were going to attack first, I felt strongly about that.”

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That explanation directly contradicted what Secretary of State Marco Rubio said to reporters a day earlier. Rubio, speaking ahead of a briefing with congressional leadership, said Monday that an imminent Israeli attack forced the U.S. to act in order to prevent retaliatory strikes against American forces.

Donald Trump broke with Marco Rubio on Tuesday and said that the U.S. did not attack based on imminent Israeli action

Donald Trump broke with Marco Rubio on Tuesday and said that the U.S. did not attack based on imminent Israeli action (AFP via Getty Images)

“We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” said Rubio on Monday.

The administration’s explanations for why it launched such a massive military campaign have shifted rapidly since the first strikes took place Saturday morning. The reasons have ranged from a necessity to deal with a reconstructed Iranian nuclear weapons program to longer-held frustrations that Iran was building up its ballistic weapons stockpile and refusing to address it with negotiators. Then Rubio’s assertion on Monday that Israel planned to launch its own military action before the president made his decision was shot down by Trump a day later.

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“Based on the way that the negotiations was going, I think that they were going to attack first. And I didn’t want that to happen,” Trump told reporters Tuesday. “So if anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand. But Israel was ready and we were ready.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday that an imminent Israeli strike necessitated U.S. action to prevent retaliatory strikes against U.S. assets

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday that an imminent Israeli strike necessitated U.S. action to prevent retaliatory strikes against U.S. assets (Reuters)

Many retaliatory Iranian strikes have taken place in the days since, and six U.S. service members are confirmed dead as the conflict has exploded across the region. Numerous countries across the Gulf region have been targeted by Iranian strikes, including Qatar, Oman, the UAE and even Cyprus as U.S., Israeli and NATO targets have come under drone and missile attack.

Explosions rang out Tuesday in Tehran and in Lebanon, where Israel retaliated against Hezbollah. And the American embassy in Saudi Arabia and the U.S. consulate in the United Arab Emirates were attacked by Iranian drones. Meanwhile, Iran has fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel, though most of it has been intercepted. Still, 11 people in Israel have been killed since the conflict began, the Associated Press reported.

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But four days in, the White House continues to provide a limited picture of the conflict’s possible resolution, similar to how the Trump administration offered a murky view of it’s plan for dealing with the remainder of Venezuela’s government in the wake of the raid to capture Nicolas Maduro. Trump has said that he is not ready to negotiate with Iran, in a post on Truth Social ,and on Tuesday told reporters that he has no idea who will take over the government after U.S. strikes killed the most likely candidates.

“Most of the people we had in mind [to lead Iran] are dead,” he said. “Pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody.”

The president was frank about the lack of certainty surrounding Iran’s future leadership, admitting that the “worst case” scenario “is we do this and then somebody takes over who is as bad as the previous person.”

He added that “five years” from now, the U.S. could be looking back and realizing that his actions were a mistake.

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“That could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”

His secretary of Defense was far more optimistic about the prospect for positive regime change on Monday, at an early-morning press conference at the Pentagon — his first in months.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth takes questions during a press conference on US military action in Iran, at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, on March 2, 2026.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth takes questions during a press conference on US military action in Iran, at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, on March 2, 2026. (AFP via Getty Images)

“This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it,” he said.

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If there’s one common thread linking the reasonings provided by various Trump administration figures, it’s the threat that Iran’s ballistic missile program presented and the idea that it would soon reach a “point of no return”, where efforts to dislodge it or Iran’s nuclear sites wouldn’t be feasible.

That explanation has been overshadowed by the drumbeat of war Trump himself has encouraged for months, and initial statements in the wake of the strikes from White House officials blaming the supposed imminent threat of an Iranian nuclear program which they angrily claimed in 2025 to have obliterated and set back by years.

Polling shows that Americans largely disapproved of the idea of going to war with Iran in the days leading up to the strikes, following Trump’s threats to do so in January over Tehran’s violent and sometimes deadly suppression of protesters around the country. Thousands are confirmed to have been killed after security forces and militias put down a round of demonstrations sparked by plunging currency values.

That same polling now shows that Americans are similarly unconvinced by the evolving rationalizations put forward by the administration over the course of Saturday to Tuesday.

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A Reuters/Ipsos poll over the weekend found that only a quarter of Americans approved of the U.S. airstrike campaign while disapproval was much higher, at 43 percent. In that same poll, nearly one in four Republicans said that Trump was too hasty to use military force and deploy U.S. service members abroad.

Adding to the list of uncertain terms of Trump’s war with Iran, the White House and sympathetic members of Congress briefed by the administration on its plans have not completely ruled out American boots on the ground in Iran, only saying a “large-scale” force will not be deployed.

In fact, Trump told the New York Post this week, that he was not ruling out the possibility of sending in troops. “I don’t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground — like every president says, ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it,” Trump told the outlet. “I say ‘probably don’t need them,’ (or) ‘if they were necessary.’”

On Monday, CNN published a poll which found that 6 in 10 respondents believed the president lacked “a clear plan for handling the situation” while a slightly higher amount, 62 percent, said that he should get congressional approval before launching further strikes.

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As Trump and his allies hurtle towards the midterms, the ability of the White House to get its story straight and bring the war to a close could be key to averting a devastating political division that puts him on the wrong side of independents and even members of his own base.

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Exact amount of sleep needed each night for optimum health is revealed in study

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Daily Mirror

Study in the British Medical Journal looks at metabolic health of 23,000 participants and how our blood sugar is impacted by sleep

Scientists have analysed what is the optimum amount of sleep needed for good blood sugar control.

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Previous studies have found that sleep duration is strongly linked with the risk of insulin resistance which is the precursor for type 2 diabetes. A study of 23,000 Americans looked at their sleep and estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) to examine insulin resistance. This is calculated by examining a person’s blood sugar levels after fasting, their waist circumference and their blood pressure.

The optimal length of sleep was seven hours and 19 minutes for avoiding insulin resistance, they found. Any more or less had an impact on eGDR. It also suggested that catching up on sleep at the weekend may actually be detrimental to a person’s health.

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READ MORE: Employers urged to test staff for their SNORING as they could be seriously unsafeREAD MORE: Exactly why the way you sleep could increase risk of glaucoma and blindness

Professor Hui Shi, of Nantong University in China, said: “These correlational findings suggest that sleep patterns, particularly weekend recovery sleep, may be relevant for metabolic regulation in diabetes.”

According to the NHS, the average amount of sleep needed by adults is seven to nine hours each night, while children need around nine to thirteen hours. But the more sleep you get is not necessarily better for you.

Insulin resistance is the primary driver behind poor blood sugar control. When cells resist insulin, they fail to absorb glucose efficiently, causing sugar to build up in the bloodstream. This leads to higher blood sugar levels which can progress to prediabetes and then type 2 diabetes.

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People involved in the new study reported an average of seven and a half hours of sleep in the week. Half said that they also had catch-up sleep at the weekend. For those sleeping less than the optimal amount during the week, one to two hours of weekend catch-up sleep was associated with higher eGDR.

And those sleeping more than the optimal weekday sleep, as well as more than two hours of weekend catch-up sleep, had a lower eGDR – indicating a greater risk of insulin resistance.

The study, published in the journal BMJ Open Diabetes Research and Care, concluded that weekend catch up sleep is “beneficial only in moderation and specifically for those with weekday sleep debt, whereas it may be detrimental for those who already sleep sufficiently”.

Researchers said there was a “bidirectional relationship” with sleep and metabolism. Prof Shi added: “This creates a potential vicious cycle wherein metabolic dysregulation disrupts normal sleep patterns, and the resultant abnormal sleep (including extended duration) further aggravates metabolic health.”

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The British Heart Foundation recommends getting seven to nine hours of sleep per night. Getting too little sleep can be bad for us but getting too much can be a sign of poor health.

The NHS website says regular exercise and a good diet can also improve sleep. It states: “A good sleep routine should include having a set time to start winding down – and a way to relax is important too. Going to bed and getting up at fixed times is another good sleep habit. Ideally, a sleep routine should be the same every day, including weekends.”

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Minimum Wage Rise 2026 what pay boost means for UK workers

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Minimum Wage Rise 2026 what pay boost means for UK workers

The uplift comes amid renewed debate over youth employment and Labour’s pledge to scrap age bands in the wage system – a commitment Prime Minister Keir Starmer has insisted will be honoured.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves added: “There are more people in work than there were this time a year ago.

“But I do recognise that there are challenges, particularly around young people leaving school, college and university, the Covid generation of young people who did miss out on so much during those years.

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“As a Government, we are determined to do everything we can to support them.”

Her comments come as figures from the Office for National Statistics show unemployment among 16 to 24-year-olds rose to 16.1% in the three months to December at the highest level since early 2015.

What changes from April 2026?

  • National Living Wage (21 and over)

    • Rising 4.1% from £12.21 to £12.71 per hour

    • Worth around £900 extra per year for a full-time worker

    • Expected to benefit approximately 2.4 million low-paid workers

  • National Minimum Wage (18–20-year-olds)

    • Increasing 8.5% from £10 to £10.85 per hour

    • Equivalent to around £1,500 extra annually for a full-time worker

    • Narrows the gap with the adult rate as part of plans to phase out age bands

  • National Minimum Wage (16–17-year-olds)

  • Apprentice rate

    • Increasing 6% from £7.55 to £8 per hour

    • Applies to apprentices under 19, or those 19 and over in the first year of their apprenticeship

    • After turning 19 and completing year one, apprentices must receive the age-appropriate minimum wage

Workers are legally entitled to at least the National Minimum Wage depending on their age and stage of apprenticeship.

Business groups have warned the increases will add further pressure to struggling firms

Andy Slee, chief executive of the Society of Independent Brewers and Associates (SIBA), said: “Cost of living pressures are very real for people and we all want to see living standards rise.

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“However, the responsibility of delivering wage increases are most felt by small businesses including small independent breweries who are already facing significant pressures.

“Brewing is a skilled job and we want to encourage more young people to enter the sector, but continuing to close the aged based pay gap does not take account of the additional training and development that young people need.”

Tamsin Powell, consumer finance expert at Creditspring, added: “An increase to the minimum wage will be welcomed by many workers across the UK, particularly those on lower incomes.

“However, while pay rises sound positive on paper, they don’t always translate into real financial gains once inflation and benefit tapering are factored in.

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“Some employers may also struggle to absorb higher wage costs, meaning we could see knock-on effects like reduced working hours or slower recruitment.

“For households already battling high living costs, this could mean that the benefits of a pay rise are quickly eroded.

“Boosting wages is a vital part of improving financial resilience, but it has to be paired with policies that ensure those gains aren’t lost to higher prices or reduced employment opportunities.”

How to check your pay to make sure you are being paid the correct wage

The government has a calculator here to help workers check their pay is correct.

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Andrew Bartlett, chief executive of Advice Direct Scotland, urged young workers to check their entitlements.

“Every penny counts, and young Scots should check their payslips to make sure they’re getting the right National Minimum Wage,” he said.

“This is your hard-earned money, so don’t let employers allow it to slip through the cracks.

“If you’re under 23, it’s also worth checking if you have an unclaimed Child Trust Fund.

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“These tax-free savings accounts could give you a financial boost as you step into adulthood.

“Too many young workers don’t realise they’re being underpaid, and it’s vital to know your rights.”

With wage floors rising across every age bracket, April 2026 marks one of the most significant annual increases in recent years – delivering a pay boost for millions, while reigniting debate over jobs, costs and Labour’s longer-term ambition to create a single adult minimum wage.

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Ground roller spotted on proposed new Lidl site in Marton

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Ground roller spotted on proposed new Lidl site in Marton

The Northern Echo understands that the roller is not from Lidl directly and that the company is still awaiting the planning decision on its proposals for a new store.

The ground rollers spotted on site (Image: THE NORTHERN ECHO)

The derelict site, which formerly housed the Marton Hotel and Country Club, has stood empty for years. The hotel closed down in 2017 and a major fire destroyed the landmark building in June 2019.

Marton Country Club, Middlesbrough after the fire

Further progress is now being made in the endeavour to build a new Lidl in Marton.

It was reported in summer 2024 that Lidl would be launching a public consultation over proposals to build a store on the site.

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There are currently two Lidl branches in Middlesbrough, on Newport Road and Cargo Fleet Lane.

The proposed new Lidl site in Marton, Middlesbrough (Image: LIDL)

The supermarket chain is also seeking permission to build a store on the site of the former Northern School of Art, on the corner of Green Lane and Roman Road in Linthorpe.

It is hoped that a decision on Lidl’s wider proposals for the Marton site will be made later this year, alongside an outcome on its Linthorpe ambitions.

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Newscast – Trump ‘Not Happy’ With Starmer Over Iran

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Newscast - Epstein Files: New Mandelson and Andrew Allegations

Available for over a year

Today, President Trump has publicly criticised Keir Starmer saying “This is not Winston Churchill we’re dealing with”.

The comments came during a press conference at the White House alongside the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. President Trump said he was “not happy with the UK” because of the initial refusal from London to let Washington use the British base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean during its first strikes on Iran.

It comes as the UK government has announced it is sending “helicopters with counter drone capabilities” and a warship to the region, after attacks on it’s base in Cyprus. Financial markets have also reacted to the uncertainty with oil and gas prices rising, and share prices down.

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Adam and Chris are joined by Jane Corbin, Panorama Film Maker and Dharshini David Deputy Economics Editor.

You can now listen to Newscast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say “Ask BBC Sounds to play Newscast”. It works on most smart speakers.

You can take part in the Newscast census here – https://bbc.in/newscastcensus

You can now listen to Newscast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say “Ask BBC Sounds to play Newscast”. It works on most smart speakers.

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You can join our Newscast online community here: https://bbc.in/newscastdiscord

Get in touch with Newscast by emailing newscast@bbc.co.uk or send us a WhatsApp on +44 0330 123 9480.

New episodes released every day. If you’re in the UK, for more News and Current Affairs podcasts from the BBC, listen on BBC Sounds: https://bbc.in/4guXgXd

Newscast brings you daily analysis of the latest political news stories from the BBC. The presenter was Adam Fleming. It was made by Jack Maclaren with Shiler Mahmoudi and Kris Jalowiecki. The social producer was Sophie Millward. The technical producer was Jack Graysmark. The assistant editor is Chris Gray. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

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US President Donald Trump does not care if Iran play at 2026 World Cup

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US President Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump has said he “does not care” if Iran take part in this summer’s 2026 World Cup.

Trump’s comments come amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which has responded by launching attacks on US-allied states in the Gulf in an escalating conflict.

The US is co-hosting the World Cup which takes place between 11 June and 19 July, along with Canada and Mexico.

“I really don’t care,” Trump told Politico, external about Iran playing in the tournament.

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“I think Iran is a very badly defeated country. They’re running on fumes.”

BBC Sport has approached Fifa for comment.

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Silent Witness Jack Hodgson star David Caves drops series 30 hint after BBC show finale

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Silent Witness star David Caves has hinted at the BBC crime drama’s future after the latest series concluded

Silent Witness star David Caves has dropped a hint about the future of the show as the current series concluded.

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The 29th series of the BBC crime drama, which centres on a team of pathologists probing mysterious deaths, finished on Tuesday night (March 3) with a nail-biting episode where Dr Nikki Alexander (Emilia Fox) found herself in peril after being drugged.

The programme has been a huge success with audiences and has been airing since 1996, so fans are hopeful for a 30th instalment, reports the Express.

As the final episode aired, David – who portrays Nikki’s spouse and colleague Jack Hodgson – gave a clue on X (formerly Twitter), posting: “Can’t believe that’s it for another series. To everyone who has watched and supported – thank you!”

“Here’s to the stories we’ve told – and to those still to come…” he added, tagging co-stars Emilia, Francesca Mills and Maggie Steed.

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The latest series of the show kicked off in February and has featured several gripping tales including two-part finale Shame, which began on Monday (March 2).

It saw the team investigating what seemed to be the suicide of a British-Chinese pro-democracy activist, whose body was found floating in a lake.

However, as Nikki and Harriet Maven (Maggie Steed) delved deeper into the woman’s fate, evidence started to suggest something far more sinister had transpired and it became evident that things were not as they appeared.

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There has already been a hint that Silent Witness is poised for a 30th series, after a photo emerged last month showing some cast and crew seemingly on location.

The image was posted on Instagram by Bodenham Arboretum in Worcestershire, accompanied by a caption which read: “For those of you who have visited Bodenham in the last two weeks you may have wondered what was going on… cryptic signage, trailers, security etc, occupying two of our car parks… well now all can be revealed..

“Bodenham had the privilege of being chosen as the BBC drama’s Silent Witness base camp whilst filming locally for the 30th series.”

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Conflict in the Middle East makes official economic forecasts immediately out of date

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Conflict in the Middle East makes official economic forecasts immediately out of date

The UK chancellor of the exchequer would not have wanted to deliver her spring statement against the background of a fresh threat to the world economy.

For while Rachel Reeves announced that she has the “right economic plan for the country” in a “yet more uncertain world”, the conflict in the Middle East will undoubtedly complicate the UK’s economic prospects. And the latest economic forecast by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), to which she was responding, may already be out of date.

It was too late, for example, for the OBR calculations to include any potential shocks in the global supply chain, or a spike in energy prices that may result from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. At a press conference after Reeves’ statement however, an OBR representative warned that it could have “a very significant impact”. And they added that even before the crisis unfolded, the UK had faced an unusually high degree of uncertainty.

But otherwise, the OBR report – little changed from the autumn – paints a mixed picture for the UK economy. Weaker economic and job growth is somewhat balanced by the prospects of lower inflation and lower interest rates.

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The government’s future “headroom” (the space for extra spending later on) is only slightly better than previously thought. And the OBR says that by 2031, government debt will still be 95% of GDP. At the same press conference, it added that this high level of debt relative to other countries makes the UK more vulnerable to external risks.

But Reeves bullishly told MPs: “We beat the forecasts last year […] we will beat them again” adding that stronger government finances will allow the UK to weather the storm and keep to its current spending plans.

Yet the war could well affect those spending plans and the government’s hopes of tackling the high cost of living. Oil and gas prices are already soaring, and stock markets are falling. The OBR itself accepts that “significant risks, including from conflict in the Middle East”, can significantly change its projections.

For example, gas prices have already spiked after the major Middle East supplier Qatar closed its main refinery following Iranian attacks. The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz will threaten the huge flow of oil to major Asian economies such as China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

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The UK government may have capped household gas prices, but a long-term wholesale gas price increase would boost inflation and reduce the chances of a further interest rate cut by the Bank of England.

And while the UK gets relatively little gas from the Middle East, gas and oil prices are set internationally. Europe is much more dependent on gas from that region, so the disruption of supply could threaten both higher inflation and lower growth in the UK’s largest export market.

It also could be an existential threat to the high-performing export economies of Asia, which are driving global growth.

A worldwide slowdown will have serious consequences for the UK economy as it is highly dependent on foreign trade. US president Donald Trump’s unhappiness with prime minister Keir Starmer’s conditional support for his war may threaten the restoration of the UK’s favourable tariff deal.

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An airstrike in Tehran.
EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH

A weaker UK economy – which is already growing at only slightly more than 1% a year – would have major consequences for government spending, tax receipts and the government’s headroom. This could mean both lower tax revenues and increased borrowing, with the costs of financing the government’s huge debts rising, reversing recent falls.

This may all make it difficult for the government to contemplate any electorally beneficial tax cuts ahead of the 2029 general election. It may even have to extend the freeze on tax thresholds further, squeezing workers’ pay packets.

These negative developments come as the government also faces major additional pressures on spending – which it has tried to delay in the hope of a stronger balance sheet later on.

These include costly reforms to increase spending on students with special educational needs and disabilities, and plans to reduce student debt. Other major long-term challenges include providing social care for an ageing population, meeting ambitious housing targets (which are well behind schedule) and providing for cash-strapped local government.

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Rising geopolitical tensions could also force the government to accelerate plans to boost UK defence spending from 2.5% to 3.5% of GDP, at a cost of around £40 billion. This could well mean tax rises or further cuts in other departments.

A short and decisive war could lessen all these pressures. But uncertainty in itself can inhibit investment and threaten the UK’s ability to tackle its long-term productivity problem – the key to raising living standards.

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How the unfolding war is affecting countries in the Middle East

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How the unfolding war is affecting countries in the Middle East

JERUSALEM (AP) — The unfolding war in the Middle East has ricocheted across the region, with nearly every country sustaining damage from missile hits or shrapnel, many reporting casualties, and key embassies, economic engines and passageways closing down.

Foreign governments are urging their citizens to leave on any available commercial flight as Gulf airspaces largely close, cruise ships can’t pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and major airlines cancel flights. The U.S. State Department says it has evacuated nonemergency personnel and families in six nations, adding the United Arab Emirates to its list on Tuesday. It also has advised citizens from 14 countries to leave. Governments from Russia to Germany and France also scrambled to run repatriation flights.

Here’s a country-by-country breakdown of the impact of the war so far.

All airspace information is from the real-time flight-tracking service Flightradar 24, as of Tuesday, or national authorities.

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Iran

The Qatari Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks, calling them a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty which “cannot be accepted under any justification or pretext”.

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Damage and casualties: Iran has by far the highest reported death toll of countries in the region. The Iranian Red Crescent Society said the U.S.-Israeli operation has killed at least 787 people. That includes more than 160 the state-run IRNA news agency says were killed by a strike on an elementary school in Minab. Israel says it was not involved in the incident. When asked by reporters about it, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not have details but that the U.S. would not deliberately target a school.

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Residents and officials attend the funeral of people killed in what Iranian officials said was an Israeli-U.S. strike Feb. 28 on a girls' elementary school in Minab, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Abbas Zakeri/Mehr News Agency via AP)

Residents and officials attend the funeral of people killed in what Iranian officials said was an Israeli-U.S. strike Feb. 28 on a girls’ elementary school in Minab, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Abbas Zakeri/Mehr News Agency via AP)

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Coffins holding the bodies of mostly children sit in a room as they are prepared for the funeral of those killed in what Iranian officials said was an Israeli-U.S. strike Feb. 28 at a girls' elementary school in Minab, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA via AP)

Coffins holding the bodies of mostly children sit in a room as they are prepared for the funeral of those killed in what Iranian officials said was an Israeli-U.S. strike Feb. 28 at a girls’ elementary school in Minab, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA via AP)

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U.S.-Israeli strikes have targeted nuclear infrastructure, missile launchers, government buildings in Tehran and leadership compounds, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top military officials. Satellite images of Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility taken Monday show several damaged buildings, compared with imagery from the previous day, along with additional damage across the facility’s complex.

Airspace: Closed.

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Israel and the Palestinian territories

Damage and casualties: Several locations have been hit by Iranian missiles, killing 11 people. The extent of damage to Israeli military bases and other sensitive locations is unknown; the military does not reveal that information.

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Airspace: Closed for commercial flights.

Lebanon

Damage and casualties: The Iranian-supported militant group Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel on Monday, prompting Israel to retaliate. At least 52 people have been killed and 154 wounded, Lebanese authorities said.

Israel hit Beirut with more airstrikes early Tuesday, saying it was targeting “Hezbollah command centers and weapons storage facilities,” and sent ground troops into southern Lebanon border areas. Hezbollah also said it launched drones targeting an Israeli air base. The Israeli military said it downed two drones.

Israel and Hezbollah fought a war for more than a year, ending with a November 2024 ceasefire that left the militant group greatly weakened.

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The U.S. Embassy in Lebanon said Tuesday it was closing to the public until further notice.

Airspace: Lebanon’s airspace is not fully closed. Flights are coming and going, but many airlines have canceled flights.

Saudi Arabia

Damage and casualties: Iran struck the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia’s capital early Tuesday. The attack from two drones on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh caused a “limited fire” and minor damage, according to Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry, and the embassy urged Americans to avoid the compound.

Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery also came under attack from drones, but its defenses downed the aircraft, a military spokesman told the state-run Saudi Press Agency. The refinery has a capacity of over half a million barrels of crude oil a day.

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Airspace: Partially closed in the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf.

Kuwait

Damage and casualties: On Monday, the U.S. Embassy compound in Kuwait was struck. On Tuesday, it announced it was closing to the public until further notice.

Six U.S. soldiers in a logistics unit were killed by a strike in Kuwait, according to a U.S. official who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Kuwaiti Health Ministry said Sunday that one person was killed and 32 injured in an Iranian strike, all migrant workers from unnamed countries.

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Airspace: Closed

United Arab Emirates

Damage and casualties: Three people were killed in the UAE — foreign workers from Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The city of Dubai, with a global reputation as the safest place in the Middle East and a hub for global investment, has sustained damage to its international airport and, according to CENTCOM, hotels along its coastline. Iran also targeted two Amazon data centers in the UAE, the company said Tuesday.

Airspace: Closed for commercial flights. Some evacuation flights began Monday.

Egypt

Damage and casualties: The ripple effects of the war have hit Egypt’s struggling economy, as global shipping firms decided to reroute vessel fleets away from the Suez Canal. The canal, which connects the Mediterranean and Red Seas, is a major source of foreign currency for the cash-strapped country.

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Airspace: Commercial flights are leaving the country, though there have been cancellations, and most countries are recommending residents travel through Taba and Sharm al-Sheikh instead of Cairo.

Jordan

Damage and casualties: Jordanian police announced Sunday that five people were injured by falling shrapnel after Iranian projectiles were intercepted in the kingdom’s airspace.

Airspace: The Jordanian Civil Aviation Authority said the airspace will be closed from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. daily until further notice.

Qatar

Damage and casualties: Iran has hit energy facilities in Qatar.

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Airspace: Closed.

Iraq

Damage and casualties: Strikes on Iranian proxy sites by the U.S. or Israel have killed militia members. Multiple drone and missile attacks have been launched at the U.S. bases and consulate in Irbil, and protesters attempted to storm the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil said Tuesday that it would stop production in a key oil field because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil prices to surge worldwide. The ministry cited a shortage of tankers entering the Gulf, forcing them to “stop production and pumping” from the southern Rumaila fields near the city of Basra.

Airspace: Closed.

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Bahrain

Damage and casualties: Bahrain’s Interior Ministry said fire from a strike killed one Asian worker and seriously wounded two others early Monday morning. There was also a drone impact near an Amazon data center, the company said Tuesday.

Airspace: Closed.

Syria

Damage and casualties: Several people, including children, suffered minor injuries in the countryside outside Damascus from Iranian missile debris, Syria’s state news agency SANA said. Some areas in Syria’s southern provinces also saw missile debris fall from Iranian projectiles fired toward Israel, with no additional injuries or material damage reported, SANA said.

Airspace: Closed.

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Oman

Damage and casualties: Oman has been attacked by drones multiple times since the Iran war started. The attacks targeted the country’s largest port of Salalah, as well as Duqm port. At least one vessel also was hit off the country’s coast.

Airspace: Open, but many commercial flights are canceled.

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AP writers Abby Sewell in Beirut, Samy Magdy in Cairo and Konstantin Toropin in Washington contributed to this report.

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