The US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February caused an immediate spike in oil prices, and volatility has only increased since then. It quickly led to fears among motorists of “price-gouging” – petrol retailers raising their prices to take advantage of consumer panic.

In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves asked the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to remain on “high alert” for profiteering by petrol retailers. Trade body the Petrol Retailers Association quickly hit back, saying her language was “incorrect and inflammatory”.

But what does the economic evidence suggest about retailers’ behaviour at times when oil prices are fluctuating wildly? As part of our yet-to-be-published research into UK petrol retailers and large oil price shocks, we examined Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The invasion led to a large and sudden increase in global oil prices, providing a valuable context in which to determine how shocks to crude oil supply filter through to prices at the pump.

The first striking pattern we found was that wholesale unleaded and diesel price changes closely tracked crude oil price changes. When oil prices rose, wholesale fuel prices increased almost immediately. Our estimates suggest that roughly 80% of changes in oil prices are reflected in wholesale fuel prices within a few days.

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What oil, stocks and bonds are telling us about the Iran conflict and how long it might last

Retail prices, however, react quite differently. Prices at the pump adjusted more slowly and were considerably smoother than wholesale prices. In periods where wholesale prices increased sharply, retail prices typically rose by less and with a delay.

At the immediate peak of the shock in the weeks following the invasion, wholesale diesel prices rose by about 39 pence per litre, while pump prices increased by only about 16 pence per litre.

The implication is that retailer margins compressed during price spikes as the gap between retail and wholesale prices narrowed temporarily. In other words, although consumers experienced higher petrol prices, the evidence does not suggest that retailers increased their markups during these periods.

But why would retailers reduce their margins when prices spike? One explanation is that consumers become more aware of petrol prices at these times. Using data from price comparison site PetrolPrices.com, we found that when average petrol prices rose above £1.50 per litre during 2022, search activity increased dramatically. The growing number of daily searches indicated that consumers were actively seeking out cheaper filling stations when prices increased.

The crossing of the £1.50 threshold also attracted media attention, increasing people’s awareness and encouraging consumers to compare prices. By using geographically granular data on search activity, combined with daily petrol price data from nearly all petrol stations in the UK, we can causally link this increase in consumer attention with intensifying price competition.

As prices began to stabilise, we found that search intensity on the price comparison site dropped. Search activity itself did not return to pre-shock levels, but instead dropped and plateaued at a higher level than before, consistent with predictions from well-established economic models.

Correspondingly, price impacts narrow over time. At the peak of increased search activity following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a 10 percentage point increase in search activity was associated with roughly a 2% reduction in local area petrol prices. We then found that this was driven primarily by stations that already had higher prices in January 2022. These higher-priced petrol stations cut their prices the most as consumers became more price-sensitive.

The research suggests that when oil prices increase and there is lots of media attention, consumers make more effort to search for better prices. Competition then increases and this puts downward pressure on retail prices. So retailers may actually experience falling margins when oil prices spike.

Rockets and feathers

It seems that it is not the level of prices that drives consumer attention, but whether those prices are rising rapidly. As price increases slow or reverse, consumers search price-comparison sites less intensively, reducing the sense of competition between petrol stations.

But then a clear asymmetry emerges: retail prices rise more quickly following cost increases than they fall following cost decreases. This pattern is known as the “rockets and feathers” effect: prices rise like rockets but fall like feathers.

In our study, we examined the transmission from wholesale to retail prices over a period of more than ten years. As expected, when wholesale costs fell, pump prices dropped more slowly. This temporarily increased the gap between wholesale and retail prices – meaning retailers’ profits grew.

This pattern means if wholesale prices go up by ten pence per litre and then come back down, over the entire adjustment time motorists end up paying about a penny more per litre than they would if prices adjusted evenly.

But this varied across petrol stations. For some, there was very little additional cost to consumers. For others, it was up to five times larger, meaning that the same increase and subsequent decrease would cost consumers up to five pence per litre more.

Taken together, our findings point to a clear conclusion. Petrol retailers do not appear to profiteer during periods when oil prices are rising rapidly. If anything, their margins tend to be squeezed. If concerns about excess profits are warranted, the evidence suggests that it is more likely to occur when oil prices are falling than when they’re spiking.

For those in Bolton, the Rivington and Anglezarke area remains one of the most popular choices, offering miles of scenic paths, open views across the West Pennine Moors, and routes that are easy to follow without too much planning.

One particularly appealing option is a circular walk that combines gentle waterside scenery with a well-earned pub stop along the way.

Starting at the Lower Rivington Reservoir car park, walkers can follow the main path along the water’s edge, keeping the reservoir to their left.

The wide, well-maintained track is popular with walkers, runners and cyclists alike, making it an accessible choice for all abilities.

The route continues towards the dam, which can be crossed before picking up the path alongside Upper Rivington Reservoir.

The Rivington Reservoir is surrounded by footpaths making it an easy and enjoyable walk (Image: Martini Archive)

From here, the trail curves naturally around the shoreline, offering uninterrupted views across the water and surrounding hills.

At the far end of the reservoir, the walk leaves the waterside and follows public footpaths towards Heath Charnock.

The route crosses open fields before reaching Dill Hall Brow.

A short right turn brings walkers to The Yew Tree Inn, a historic pub dating back to 1871 that came under new ownership in 2025.

The Yew Tree Inn provides that ‘proper country pub’ feel (Image: Adam Chapman)

Owner Adam Chapman previously told The Bolton News: “I’m taking it back to being a ‘proper country pub’ for everyone, with fresh home-cooked food serving quality local cask beers, including using our own produce from our own rare breed Saddleback pigs in Belmont.

“The aim is to create a relaxed environment where anybody’s welcome to pop in for a drink. Dogs are welcome, whether it’s just for a pudding and a glass of wine or a full three-course meal.

“We are a country pub for all, dedicated to looking after local walkers, cyclists, horse riders or people coming in for a drive to a country pub experience where the views are fantastic, quiet, very chilled out.

“In the summer, our terrace, secret garden and decking are probably the best places to eat and drink for miles.”

With the weather starting to get warmer, the outside terrace can be the perfect place for a pint. (Image: Adam Chapman)

Set close to Anglezarke Reservoir and surrounded by moorland, the pub has quickly become a popular stopping point for those exploring the area.

To complete the walk, visitors can follow the road back towards Rivington, re-joining the reservoir path and looping back to the car park.

At around five miles, the route is manageable for most walkers and with warmer weather on the way, it’s likely to become even busier in the weeks ahead.

The outline plan proposes building the 80 new homes on land off Arthur Lane in Harwood that had previously been used for grazing.

But 218 letters of objection from people living nearby have been sent to Bolton Council ahead of a vote on the scheme by the planning committee.

A council report said: “The site is located north of Arthur Lane on the eastern edge of Harwood, which is itself on the northeastern urban edge of the Bolton urban area.

“The site covers approximately 2.47 hectares of land across two agricultural fields for grazing purposes and the terrain of the site is generally flat with a gentle slope down from west to east.

Bolton Council officers have recommended that the plan be approved (Image: Rowland Homes)

“The site has limited intrinsic habitat or landscape value and is also private land that is fenced and walled on all sides, which limits any existing recreation value.”

It added: “The site is enclosed on all sides by strong and defensible boundaries including Harwood Golf Club car park to the north, Arthur Lane to the south, existing detached properties on Roading Brook Road and the golf club access road to the east, and existing residential development to the west.

“The east, west and north boundaries also include significant existing hedgerows and tree screening, combined with sections of post and wire fencing, with a dry-stone wall and timber fence along the southern boundary.”

The report said that the are could be considered “grey belt” land and that the proposed housing scheme “would not fundamentally undermine” the purposes of other green belt land in Bolton.

Council officers have recommended that the outline plans be approved, subject to conditions.

But Bradshaw’s Cllr Jackie Schofield has asked for the proposal to be heard at a full planning committee meeting.

Letters of objection have raised concerns about the loss of green belt land, the development being out of character with the area, the pressure on existing facilities and many others.

The planning committee is expected to vote on the outline plans at a town hall meeting on Thursday March 26.

Greater Manchester Police’s Bolton officers are urging people to sign up to their community messaging system after it emerged at a recent Police and Communities Together (PACT) meeting that many had never heard of it.

Officers introduced “Bee in the Loop”, a free service designed to keep the public informed about crime, incidents and policing activity in their area at the meeting in Tonge Moor UCAN Centre.

It came after residents raised concerns about how they can stay “in the loop” with what is happening locally.

Despite the scheme being in place across Greater Manchester, several attendees said the meeting was the first time they had come across it.

One resident said: “I’d never heard of it and I don’t think many others will have.

“This will really help keep us up to date on what’s happening, because I had no idea this all existed.”

Another added that better awareness of the service could help residents feel more connected to their community and more confident in reporting concerns.

Neighbourhood Inspector Wayne Warner told those present that public engagement is essential for effective policing, and encouraged residents to make use of the tools available.

He said: “We know people want to feel informed about what’s happening in their area, and Bee in the Loop is one of the easiest ways to do that.

“The more people who sign up to services like this, the better informed communities will be and the more we can act on local concerns.

“It gives residents direct updates from their local officers, rather than relying on word of mouth or social media posts they might miss

“Bee in the Loop” allows residents to receive updates tailored to their neighbourhood, including crime alerts, appeals for information and details of local initiatives.

Users can choose how they receive messages, including email or text alerts.

Officers also highlighted GMP’s increasing use of social media to communicate with the public.

The force is particularly active on Facebook, where it regularly shares updates, appeals and results from investigations.

Police told the meeting that their social media posts now reach around 1.8 million people, reflecting a growing shift towards digital engagement.

Residents were also reminded of features available on the GMP website, including a postcode search tool which allows people to identify neighbourhood officers covering their area, view recent local news and incidents, and access links to report crime or provide information.

Officers said these tools are designed to make it easier for the public to stay informed and to contact police in a way that suits them.

The meeting also drew comparisons with traditional neighbourhood watch schemes, with “Bee in the Loop” described as a modern, digital alternative allowing faster and wider communication.

Inspector Warner added that improving awareness of such services is now a priority.

He said: “It’s about making sure people know what’s available to them.

“The more people who sign up and engage with us, the better we can respond to the issues that matter locally.”

The discussion highlighted a clear gap between the availability of digital policing tools and public awareness of them, something GMP hopes to address through continued community meetings and outreach.

Residents across Bolton are now being encouraged to sign up to “Bee in the Loop”, follow GMP online, and report concerns to help strengthen communication and improve community safety.

Available for over a year

Today, Adam, Chris and Faisal are joined by Panorama Jane Corbin to discuss the latest strikes in the war in Iran.

They look at a straining relationship between Israel and the US and how the UK is reacting to the shock to the global economy.

You can now listen to Newscast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say “Ask BBC Sounds to play Newscast”. It works on most smart speakers.

You can join our Newscast online community here: https://bbc.in/newscastdiscord

Get in touch with Newscast by emailing newscast@bbc.co.uk or send us a WhatsApp on +44 0330 123 9480.

New episodes released every day. If you’re in the UK, for more News and Current Affairs podcasts from the BBC, listen on BBC Sounds: https://bbc.in/4guXgXd

Newscast brings you daily analysis of the latest political news stories from the BBC. The presenter was Adam Fleming. It was made by Anna Harris with Jem Westgate. The social producer was Jem Westgate. The technical producer was Jack Graysmark. The assistant editor was Jack Maclaren. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

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At the end of every season the Premier League’s stakeholders – that’s coaches, captains and fans, among others – are asked for their opinion on how the game is refereed.

Last summer the high threshold for VAR intervention was supported by 80%.

Clubs may feel they have been wronged, as Manchester United were at Bournemouth.

But they don’t mention the times they benefited from this high threshold.

Like the push by Leny Yoro before United scored at Fulham, or the penalty for Jaydee Canvot’s hold on Cunha (which also led to a VAR red card), or Diogo Dalot’s potential red-card challenge on Jeremy Doku.

Clubs have selective memory when decisions go against them.

There have been fewer VAR interventions this season, but the accuracy has remained the same at 94%.

PGMOL would probably say that shows more decisions are being made on the field rather than being left to VAR.

The independent Key Match Incidents Panel results say that on-field accuracy has remained stable, at 86%, since 2023-24.

Take that on face value and on-field standards have neither improved nor regressed.

English football’s biggest problem is that it doesn’t know what it wants.

It doesn’t like VAR getting involved in games.

The Premier League has the lowest intervention rate in Europe, but then you get clubs saying it must intervene more when a decision doesn’t go their way.

Clubs are always unhappy when a decision goes against them.

But they are strangely silent when they are the beneficiaries.

Russian drone strikes have killed at least two people in Zaporizhzhia and left most of a northern region without power, Ukrainian officials have said.

The news comes as a Ukrainian delegation makes its way to the US for a meeting on restarting peace talks.

Ivan Fedorov, a regional official in Zaporizhzhia, said a man and a woman were killed in the Russian drone strike on Saturday morning.

Two children were also injured in the attack, which struck a private home.

Images posted on Mr Fedorov’s official Telegram channel show a house in ruins and a car damaged.

Elsewhere, governor of the Chernihiv region, Viacheslav Chaus, said that most of his region, which borders Belarus and Russia, had been left without power on ​Saturday after a separate ​Russian drone attack.

He ​said repair works ​were underway to fix the damage.

Read more: The ‘hero city’ 30,000 Russians failed to take

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From February: How Chernihiv defied Putin

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Talks between US and Ukrainian delegates are expected to take place in Miami later on Saturday, according to Ukrainian state media.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X on Friday that Kyiv wants “clear dates” for a proposed trilateral meeting with US and Russian representatives.

He added: “Dialogue with the American side must continue in close coordination, because the easing of sanctions by the United States on Russian energy creates risks.

“This increases Russia’s revenues and, accordingly, Russian capabilities on the frontline. This is dangerous. Therefore, from this perspective as well, the meeting in the United States is important.”

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Was Zelenskyy’s UK visit a success?

The Trump administration eased sanctions on Russian oil earlier this month as US-Israeli strikes on Iran sent the oil price soaring.

The White House did not confirm any meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, according to the Associated Press news agency.

Read more from Sky News:
Iran fires ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia base, say report
UK forces join military to seize Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested, however, on Friday that a new round of US-mediated negotiations might take place.

“The pause is temporary, we hope it’s temporary regarding the continuation of the trilateral format,” he said.

“A shift to a cooler north‑westerly flow will bring a drop in temperature and more unsettled weather”

The Met Office has said that parts of the UK could see snow next week after a sunny weekend.

As Northern Ireland enjoys blue skies and warmer weather on Saturday, the forecaster has said thay from Sunday the weather begins to change.

They explained that a “weakening band of cloud and patchy rain” will move southeast across the UK, followed by sunny spells and scattered showers in the north and that some of these showers may turn wintry over higher ground.

READ MORE: Northern Ireland set for warm and sunny weekend before cooler weather returnsREAD MORE: Seaside town named best place to live in NI by Sunday Times

Met Office Chief Forecaster, Steve Willington, said: “While the early part of the period brings warm sunshine for many, it’s not unusual to see colder spells and even some wintry showers in March.

“As we head into next week, a shift to a cooler north‑westerly flow will bring a drop in temperature and more unsettled weather, including some hill snow in the north and brisk winds at times.

“This pattern is entirely typical for the time of year.”

By Wednesday, the UK will be in a cooler and more unstable north‑to‑north-westerly flow, bringing frequent showers, some heavy and wintry over higher ground, the Met Office added.

Here is the outlook for the next couple of days across Northern Ireland:

Saturday night:

Increasingly cloudy with patchy rain across the far west at first, which gradually extends to the rest of the Province overnight. Westerly breezes. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Sunday:

Cloudy start with some patchy rain. Clearing to brighter spells and showers from around mid-day with the bulk of the outbreaks confined to northern coastal districts. Maximum temperature 12 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Fair start for Monday then rain reaching from west from mid-day. Rain soon clearing to showers Tuesday, these focused in west and turning wintry to quite low levels Wednesday.

For all the latest news, visit the Belfast Live homepage here and sign up to our daily newsletter here.

The Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has been facing calls to sack Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy after he claimed an Open Iftar event in Trafalgar Square was ‘not welcome’

Kemi Badenoch has been accused of dragging the Tories “further into the gutter” after agreeing with her frontbencher who claimed Muslim prayers was an act of “domination”.

The Tory leader has been facing calls to sack Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy after he claimed an Open Iftar event in Trafalgar Square was “not welcome”.

The London landmark regularly holds events for worshippers of all faiths, and has been hosting the Eid event since 2006. Despite this, Mr Timothy branded the public Muslim prayer as an “act of domination and division”.

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READ MORE: Reform MP blasted after saying she would wear a ‘tartan burka’READ MORE: Kemi Badenoch accused of cowardice over backing vile Tory attack on Muslim event

Having previously described her under-pressure colleague as “fantastic”, Ms Badenoch has now told Times Radio she agrees with him. She said: “I do think that specific event was a domination of a public space in a way that I’m not sure is acceptable. Some people might agree or disagree. Trafalgar Square has been host to all religions having lots of festivities but they need to be done in an inclusive way and this is really not about religion, it’s about culture. Islam is celebrated in many different ways in many different countries. I think we need to start explaining what we think the rules should be about public prayer.

“I think people are confused they don’t know when they agree or disagree they don’t know when the public prayer is fine and when it’s, you know, troublemakers using it as a way to send a signal and this is where we need to have a debate, and I want the Conservative Party to lead that debate. If there are people who disagree, they should say so. He is a Member of Parliament, he has a right to express his opinion, and that’s why I support him. He’s a great shadow justice Secretary.”

Responding, Anna Turley MP, Chair of the Labour Party, claimed the Tory leader should be “ashamed”. She said: “Kemi Badenoch is dragging the Conservative Party further and further into the gutter. Instead of doing the right thing and sacking her Shadow Justice Secretary, she’s now pushing his abhorrent views as her own. The Tories have now joined Reform by adopting Tommy Robinson endorsed views over Muslims peacefully praying in London. The majority of Brits – including many Conservatives – will rightly be appalled by it. They should be ashamed.”

Sharing a video of Monday’s prayers, which featured Sir Sadiq Khan, Mr Timothy had said: “Perform these rituals in mosques if you wish. But they are not welcome in our public places and shared institutions.” Similar religious gatherings have long taken place in the capital, such as the Jewish celebration of Chanukah and Easter Sunday processions.

Liverpool begin the weekend in fifth place, which will be enough for a Champions League spot next season despite a disastrous week for teams at Europe’s top table, but with Aston Villa two points ahead, and more importantly, Chelsea one point behind – the pressure to pick up points is paramount for all involved.