John Swinney is on course to remain as First Minister despite the Nationalists facing a “clear sense of voter disillusionment after nearly two decades in office”.
The SNP is close to winning a majority of MSPs at the Holyrood election in May despite “voter disillusionment” with the party’s 20 years in power, a new poll has found.
A survey out today by More in Common puts support for the Nationalists at 33 per cent on the constituency vote and 31 per cent on the list. If such a result was replicated on polling day it could hand John Swinney 64 MSPs – one short of an overall majority.
The SNP leader has argued that if his party hits the magic number of 65 it should act as a mandate to begin negotiations with the UK Government to stage a second referendum on independence.
Labour and Reform UK are currently fighting it out for second place, with Anas Sarwar’s party on 19 per cent in the constituency vote – just one point ahead Nigel Farage’s outfit. The two parties are tied at 16 per cent on the list.
That could leave Labour with just 16 MSPs, while Reform could end up with 17.
The survey is especially bad for the Scottish Conservatives who stand to lose more than half of their MSPs, ending up with just 12 elected members.
Luke Tryl of More in Common said the SNP could win big at the election thanks to the “highly fragmented” nature of the Scottish electorate – with no opposition party providing a clear alternative to the Nationalists.
The pollster said: “Despite a big fall in support since 2021 and a clear sense of voter disillusionment after nearly two decades in office, our latest modelling suggests the SNP could emerge from the next Holyrood election within touching distance of an outright majority.
“At a time when incumbent governments across the UK and beyond are facing a powerful anti-incumbent mood, Scotland might prove something of an exception.
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“Because of the first-past-the-post system for the constituency vote, the SNP could receive a significant boost from a highly fragmented Scottish electorate. Additionally, much of the disillusionment among Scottish voters is directed at Westminster as well as Holyrood, limiting Labour’s ability to position itself as a clear anti-incumbent alternative to the SNP.
“In this context, we’re likely to see a Reform UK breakthrough on the horizon. On their current level of support, it’s possible that Reform could be competing with Labour for second place in Holyrood.”
Keith Brown, SNP depute leader, said: “This poll shows Scottish voters are putting their faith in John Swinney’s strong leadership which is firmly on Scotland’s side amid chaos from Westminster.
“As the Westminster parties tear themselves apart over scandals, John Swinney’s relentless focus has been on Scotland’s NHS, the cost of living crisis and offering people hope through a fresh start with independence.”
A spokesperson for Reform UK said: “It is clear from the poll that the SNP has run out of steam and ideas. After two decades of managed decline the people are ready for reform.
“The SNP has made everything is worse from the public services to town centres. The tax burden is weighing heavily on Scottish people and we will change that.
“They are fed up and this poll only further confirms what Reform has said all along. This is a two-horse race. We are going head-to-head with SNP.”
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