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Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s ‘nuclear deterrent’

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Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s ‘nuclear deterrent’

This is the text from The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up here to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.


Napoleon Bonaparte is said to have commented in connection with his invasion of Russia that “geography is destiny”. Take a look at a live maritime tracker to see how Napoleon’s aphorism is playing out in the Middle East today. There are presently hundreds of vessels either side of the Strait of Hormuz, idling in either the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman. But nothing is passing though.

In normal times, 20% of the world’s oil flows through this waterway. But since the US and Israel began to launch attacks at the end of February, Iran has effectively closed down the Strait, both by depositing mines and by threatening to board any ships trying to pass without their permission.

The US has countered with its own blockade. And both sides have demonstrated how serious they are in recent days by threatening, boarding or forcing vessels to reroute.

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That Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz should have come as no surprise to anyone. The leaders of the Islamic Republic have threatened to do so every time they have felt under threat over more than four decades. Christian Emery, an expert in US-Iran relations and Persian Gulf security at University College London, believes this is why no previous US president has chosen to launch a full-scale attack on Iran.

As we’ve already seen, the ability of Iran to hugely disrupt the global economy by shutting down the Strait was obvious: “The only person who seems not to have understood this is Donald Trump,” Emery concludes.




À lire aussi :
Has the Strait of Hormuz emerged as Iran’s most powerful form of deterrence?


So now there appears to be a deadlock. It’s an unwinnable war, write Bamo Nouri and Inderjeet Parmar, experts in international security at City St George’s, University of London. The US and Israel may enjoy massive military superiority over Iran, but this is beside the point, Nouri and Parmar believe.

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While both the US president, Donald Trump, and Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, need to be able to demonstrate to their voters that they have emerged triumphant, Iran isn’t looking to win. It is looking to endure – while making sure that the cost of this conflict becomes unsustainable. And not just for the US and Israel, but for pretty much everybody else besides.

We’re already seeing that. Oil prices have surged and reserves are coming under strain. Supply chains are disrupted. And political friction is stressing relationships, not just between the US and its Nato allies, but – more ominously – with China, which typically buys between 80% and 90% of Iran’s oil exports and said this week that the Strait must be opened without delay.

Iran, our experts conclude, “does not need to win. It only needs to prevent its adversaries from achieving their aims. So far, it has done exactly that.”




À lire aussi :
Middle East conflict looks increasingly like a war nobody can win

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There’s a principle in classical game theory which explains why Iran’s position is so strong. It’s known as Rubinstein bargaining, writes Renaud Foucart, an economist at Lancaster University. As Foucart explains it, this holds that in a conflict the respective strength of adversaries each depends on two things: “how badly off it would be without a resolution, and how impatient it is to get things resolved”.

As we’ve heard, all the pressure is on the US, while the leverage is mainly in Iran’s hands. “The US’s position is much weaker than first thought because of a stretch of water the world can’t do without,” he concludes.




À lire aussi :
The Strait of Hormuz shows how everything is now about leverage


On Tuesday, as we waited to see what might happen if the 14-day deadline imposed by Trump on April 8 expired without Tehran opening the Strait, it was clear that both the US and Iran, to varying degrees, were looking for an off-ramp. The blockade is financially ruinous for Iran – whether it is losing US$500 million (£370 million) a day, as Trump claims, we don’t know. But the shutting down of its oil exports is hitting an already parlous economy and this week the social security minister said 2 million people had lost their jobs since the beginning of the war.

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For Trump, it’s soaring prices at the gas pumps and the prospect of rising inflation angering voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. The war is very unpopular with Americans – and, significantly, it’s beginning to fracture the Maga coalition which brought Trump to power in the 2024 election.

Fuel prices have risen in the US and across much of the rest of the world.
EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo

But there are ways both sides can find off-ramps, writes David Galbreath of the University of Bath. The key thing is to find a settlement that the leaders of both sides can sell as a “win”.

For Iran, this could be an easing of sanctions and access to some of the many billions of dollars of frozen assets held overseas. It could be a recognition of its right to enrich uranium to the level needed for medical uses – particularly given the recent assertion by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, that such a solution would “safeguard its [Iran’s] national sovereignty”.

We know a little about what Iran is prepared to offer because a great deal of it was on the table in February when the US and Israel launched their strikes. But one of the stumbling blocks for the US president appears to be that Iran’s proposals may too closely resemble the deal struck in 2015 by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

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Map of Strait of Hormuz with magnifying glass.
Signalling it is willing to open the Strait of Hormuz could be one way for Iran to signal it is willing to make concessions. But this would need to be matched by the US.
Sipa US/Alamy Live News

But Galbreath concludes that as things stand, some combination of opening the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of limits on uranium enrichment and agreeing to stringent inspections could be made to appear a “win” for Trump. This could be a starting point, writes Galbreath, in what is known in conflict resolution as “sequenced de‑escalation”. It could deliver an initial settlement and allow negotiators on both sides to get to work and hammer out the details. Obama’s treaty took 20 months to agree. It’s early days yet.




À lire aussi :
Middle East conflict: how the US and Iran could step back from the brink


One stumbling block is likely to be that there appears to be something of a power struggle raging at the top of Iranian politics. This was seen very clearly last weekend, when Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that the Strait of Hormuz was completely open, only to be swiftly overruled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which said it would decide when and how the Strait would be opened.

Since then, a new figure has emerged at the head of the IRGC: a longtime guards member and hardline former commander of its elite Quds force, Ahmad Vahidi. And it seems that with Iran’s freshly minted supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, badly injured after the attack that killed his father on February 28, Vahidi is now calling the shots in Iran. Andreas Krieg, an expert in Middle East politics at King’s College London explains the power struggle that has led to Vahidi assuming control.




À lire aussi :
Who is calling the shots in Iran?

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Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.


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Pub site extension plans submitted to council

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Pub site extension plans submitted to council

Peter McGee has applied for planning permission to build a two-storey extension at the Griffin pub on Bader Avenue and Newton Avenue, Thornaby.

It is proposed to extend the “public house and retail development”, which also includes a Morrisons Daily store and a Pizza & Co takeaway, with five retail units at the ground floor, nine offices on the first floor and a reconfigured car park and service yard.

“Careful consideration has been given to the proposed development in terms of scale, character and general external appearance in order to ensure that the established street scene and local setting is respected and not unduly compromised,” says Rod Hepplewhite, principal planning consultant for Prism Planning, the developer’s agent, in a planning statement.

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He said the car park would be “reconfigured and extended” to 51 spaces, including six accessible spaces, with an extended services area, storage for 14 bicycles and a new access from Bader Avenue to serve pub customers.

“The existing access from Newton Drive is to be widened and improved and a new access to the south is to be created, providing car parking for the retail units and the offices,” he added.

The developer says the site is the “preferable location” for the proposals, with no vacant units at other nearby shop parades, with three empty units in Thornaby town centre described as too large for the businesses.

It says the development will have a “positive economic impact” and provide construction, contractor, manufacturing, fit-out and retail work, describing the development as “visually attractive” and “a safe, inclusive and accessible building”.

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The statement adds: “The proposed development will add to the vitality and vibrancy of the locality and provide enhanced local facilities for the local population… The surrounding area is lacking local facilities such as hairdressers, barbers, chemists, florists, greengrocers, butchers, bakers/confectioners, café or bookmakers.

“The proposed building, representing an extension to the existing buildings, is of a design and appearance in tune with and sympathetic to the existing buildings… It is not considered that the proposed building would have an adverse impact on the character and appearance of the surrounding area.”

It says neighbouring areas passed the “overshadowing to gardens and open spaces test”.  It also argues the scheme would not harm road safety or traffic, adding: “It is not considered that the proposed development would be a significant trip generator and that the proposed commodious parking arrangements would be more than adequate.

“Overall, it is considered that there are no adverse impacts associated with the proposed development which would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits of the proposal.”

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Village ward Councillor Mick Moore has objected to the plan on grounds including loss of privacy overlooking into back gardens and rooms, loss of natural light to nearby properties, overdevelopment of a small car park, traffic and parking on surrounding estate roads “as access to the rear of the shopping precinct will be restricted” and “due to the loss of parking bays on the Griffin car park”.

He said previous similar applications had been rejected on these grounds, while the developer’s statement said the company previously put in plans for a two-storey extension with three shops and 21 “self-contained residential units” in 2021, but that proposal was withdrawn.

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Woman, 84, dies after crash on A166 in Stamford Bridge

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A61 - Driver fails to stop after crash with Vauxhall Vivaro

Humberside Police said the woman, who was a passenger in a Ford Fiesta travelling down Roman Road (A166) in Stamford Bridge when she was involved in a crash with a white Mercedes, died at the scene yesterday (Wednesday, April 22).


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A force spokesperson said: “It is reported at around 2.30pm, a Ford Fiesta was travelling down the A166 and, for reasons that are still unknown, has driven into the opposing carriageway and collided with a white Mercedes van near the junction with Dolegate.”

Map of incidentThe crash happened close to the A166 junction with Dolegate (Image: Google Maps)

They added: “Emergency services attended and the road was closed to allow them to work safely.

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“The driver of the Ford Fiesta, an 81-year-old man, was taken to hospital for treatment to serious injuries.

“Enquiries remain ongoing to establish the full circumstances around the collision, and we would appeal to anyone who witnessed the incident or has dashcam footage to please contact 101 quoting log 280 of 22 April.”

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DWP confirms state pension payment dates for May 2026 bank holidays

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Cambridgeshire Live

The DWP has confirmed early state pension and benefit payment dates for May 2026 as the UK prepares for two Bank Holidays

The Department for Work and Pensions has announced the dates when millions of people across Britain should anticipate receiving their benefit and pension payments during the forthcoming bank holidays. Next month sees two bank holidays in the UK: the early May Bank Holiday, falling on Monday, May 4, and the spring Bank Holiday on Monday, May 25.

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Because of these bank holidays, the DWP has confirmed that any payments scheduled for either date will be issued earlier than usual. GOV.UK states: “Benefits are usually paid straight into your bank, building society or credit union account. If your payment date is on a weekend or a Bank Holiday you’ll usually be paid on the working day before.”

Anyone expecting a payment on Monday, May 4, will receive their funds on Friday, May 1 instead.

Those awaiting their payment on Monday, May 25 should anticipate it arriving on Friday, May 22.

Universal Credit, Personal Independence Payments, Jobseeker’s Allowance, Employment and Support Allowance, Disability Living Allowance, and Attendance Allowance will all be distributed ahead of schedule, reports the Express.

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Nevertheless, it is crucial to understand that these early Bank Holiday payments will not affect subsequent payment dates. These will continue to be issued on their regular schedule.

Should a payment fail to arrive on the anticipated date, claimants are encouraged to verify their bank account and online DWP account before getting in touch with the department.

Those needing to contact Universal Credit can ring their helpline on 0800 328 5644 from Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm, excluding public holidays. The same applies to state pension payments, with anyone expecting theirs on Monday, May 4 receiving it on Friday, May 1 instead. Those anticipating payment on May 25will get it on May 22.

The day pensioners typically receive their payment is determined by the final two digits of their National Insurance number.

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Those with numbers ending 00 to 19 are paid on Mondays, 20 to 39 on Tuesdays, 40 to 59 on Wednesdays, 60 to 79 on Thursdays and 80 to 99 on Fridays.

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Quarry Farm 475-home plan in Elwick Road Hartlepool agreed

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Quarry Farm 475-home plan in Elwick Road Hartlepool agreed

Proposals had been submitted to Hartlepool Borough Council planning department to provide the properties on 23.5 hectares of agricultural land to the north of Elwick Road and south of Worset Lane.

The outline application, from Hartlepool-based Cecil M Yuill, stated the scheme would be the third phase of the Quarry Farm housing development.

It also included a local centre comprising 400sqm of retail units and areas of open space.

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In total 26 objections had been submitted to the council from residents raising concerns over the proposals.

Worries were voiced around “inadequate” road infrastructure, congestion, noise and traffic, impact on countryside, trees, fields and wildlife, and the lack of demand for the properties.

The application went before the local authority’s planning committee yesterday (Wednesday, April 22) for a final verdict after councillors previously twice deferred making a decision.

The panel decided by majority vote to approve the application, which was in line with recommendations from planning officers.

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Their report stated: “It is anticipated that a scale of development could come forward that would achieve a satisfactory form that would not adversely impact upon the character and appearance of the surrounding area.”

The approval will be subject to the completion of a section 106 legal agreement securing more than £8million from the developer to mitigate the impacts of the scheme.

This includes more than £5million towards highway infrastructure, more than £1.4million for primary school provision and just under £1million for secondary education.

It will also ensure seven per cent of the properties provided are classed affordable homes.

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The scheme will include two distinct parcels of residential development separated by an existing “local wildlife site” which will be retained and “enhanced” by the application.

Each section will feature a village green and a children’s play area.

Meanwhile a new vehicular entrance into the site will be taken from Elwick Road.

A statement from JW Planning said the development will provide “significant direct economic benefits for the town and its residents”.

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It adds: “The introduction of additional population in this location will generate significant increased levels of expenditure in the town

“It will also provide a mix of high quality 2, 3 and 4 bedroomed houses, including a proportion of bungalows, in a high-quality landscaped setting which will meet the needs of present and future generations.”

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Partner of Earl Spencer and his ex-wife settle High Court claim

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Partner of Earl Spencer and his ex-wife settle High Court claim

She also said that Ms Jarman believed that the disclosures were “neither necessary nor reasonable”, but that Countess Spencer “has asserted, and continues to assert, that it was entirely justified and legitimate for her to tell everyone she did that the claimant had MS in the context of discussing the breakdown of her marriage”.

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Go-ahead for David Lloyd Harrogate padel tennis courts

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Go-ahead for David Lloyd Harrogate padel tennis courts

The application, which goes before North Yorkshire Council’s Harrogate and Knaresborough area planning committee on Tuesday, seeks permission for the outdoor courts and a social area already built at the David Lloyd Harrogate gym in Oakdale Place.

A previous application was rejected last September due to concerns over noise and the impact on local ecology.

To address these issues, the leisure company has proposed mitigation measures, including four-metre acoustic barriers and upgraded “asymmetric” lighting designed to reduce spill into the nearby Oak Beck wildlife corridor.

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The report notes the site sits within flood zones two and three, meaning it is at a high risk from river flooding.

A test is required to prove such developments in these zones cannot be placed in lower-risk areas, but the report notes that the applicant only looked at alternative spots within their own grounds.

A report prepared ahead of the meeting by council planners admits this represents a policy conflict, but they say the benefits to community health are so clear, that this is not a key issue.

The proposal has divided opinion in the community, with the council receiving 175 letters of support and 34 objections.

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Supporters praised the “inclusivity” of the sport, while neighbours on Norwood Grove and Oakdale Glen raised fears over the “sharp, repetitive and intrusive” noise of padel rackets.

To protect residents, officers have recommended new operating hours from 8am to 8pm Monday to Saturday, and 9am to 7pm on Sundays.

Recommending approval, case officer Lisa Alder concluded that the revisions are sufficient to ensure the courts “would not result in unacceptable harm to neighbouring amenity or ecology”.

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Man found dead day after he killed his partner, inquest hears

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Cambridgeshire Live

A manhunt was launched to try and locate the man before he was found dead

A man was found dead the day after he killed his partner at their Cambridgeshire home, an inquest has heard. An inquest into the death of Cody Parker, 27, was held today (Thursday, April 23) at Vantage House in Huntingdon, led by Coroner Elizabeth Grey.

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The inquest concluded that Cody died of hanging, after he was found in a toilet cubicle at Hinchingbrooke Hospital at around 6am on February 27, 2025. Before Cody was found, Cambridgeshire Police launched a manhunt for him.

Cody’s partner, Simone Smith, 35, was found dead at the couple’s flat in Saunders Close, Huntingdon at around 5pm on February 26. Police tried to locate Cody as it was concluded that he murdered Simone.

In her conclusion, Coroner Grey said that Cody was “responsible for the death of his partner and went on to take his own life”. She added that it was not for the inquest court to “determine why he took the actions he did” on February 26.

Before the inquest’s conclusion, Coroner Grey recounted the events leading to when Cody was found. Cody was due to appear in court on February 25 at around 2.30pm.

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The reason he was due to appear in court was not heard, but Coroner Grey said it would have “put him on the sex offenders register”. The court then heard that 11.13am on February 25 was the last time Simone spoke to her mum.

Cody went to stay at his mum’s house at around 11pm on February 25, and left at around 2pm the next day on February 26. During this time, Simone’s mum called the police to report that she was worried that she hadn’t heard from her daughter, and said it was “out of character for her”.

Police attempted to contact Simone and Cody on February 26, but received no response. At around 5pm on February 26, police “forced entry” to the couple’s flat and found Simone dead. A manhunt was then launched to locate Cody.

From a police report read out, the court heard that Cody and Simone had been in a relationship for “several years” and there had been “no history of abuse”.

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Appearing in court was Simone’s sister Karina, who wished for her surname to not be included, Karina’s partner and a representative from Peterborough Women’s Aid. Coroner Grey asked if Karina would like to say anything in court, but Karina told the court it was “difficult enough”.

Appearing remotely were Cody’s parents and auntie. Before concluding the inquest, Coroner Grey read out a note from Cody’s mum in which she sent her “condolences to the family of Simone”.

The inquest into Simone’s death has not yet been held, and the coroners confirmed that no date has been set for it. Cambridgeshire Police also confirmed the investigation into Simone’s death had been closed.

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Newcastle Central Station Victorian toilets to be revamped

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Newcastle Central Station Victorian toilets to be revamped

LNER has submitted proposals to upgrade  the men’s loos next to Platform 12 at Newcastle Central Station, which it says are being constantly vandalised.

It comes after complaints last year about the poor state of the toilets, which date back to the 1890s and  were reopened in 2021 following a restoration project.

The men's toilets next to platform 12 at Newcastle Central Station, which are to be refurbished. Photo: AHR / LNER. Free to reuse for all LDR partners.The men’s toilets next to platform 12 at Newcastle Central Station, which are to be refurbished. Photo: AHR / LNER. Free to reuse for all LDR partners.

The Rev Mark Edwards MBE told the Local Democracy Reporting Service last year that he had been left “physically nauseated” during a visit to the station and described the toilets as “shocking and unhygienic”.

Having pledged to press ahead with another refurbishment, LNER has now applied to Newcastle City Council for permission to carry out a major overhaul of the loos.

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Their plans include a “deep clean” of the room, new wash basins, toilets with auto-flush sensors, and individual urinals to replace the existing communal trough.

Documents submitted to city planners say that the existing toilets have become a “constant maintenance and repair issue for the station team and are constantly being damaged”, with seats broken off and chains stolen.

LNER’s plans also include a new fresh air ventilation system to “remove stale air and provide clean air to all cubicles and the urinals”, as well as repairs to timber cubicle doors and frames. 

Their planning application states: “The condition of the existing gentlemen’s toilet area on Platform 12 has deteriorated with constant use and is now in need of repair and restoration.

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As such, there is a strong requirement to refurbish the area and deliver facilities that meet modern passenger standards while ensuring that the area remains sympathetic to the building’s historic character and Grade I Listed status.”

The application adds:“Our designs will aim to provide simple proposals that can be implemented in a manner that has minimal effect to the building’s heritage yet is effective in addressing the need for improved toilet facilities to the station. Complaints from passengers using the toilets is commonplace at the station and exemplify the need for refurbishments and repairs.”

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1 person dead, 5 wounded in shooting at the Mall of Louisiana

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1 person dead, 5 wounded in shooting at the Mall of Louisiana

BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — An exchange of gunfire at a food court inside a Louisiana mall on Thursday killed one person and wounded five others and sent workers and shoppers scrambling for safety, police and witnesses said.

Authorities described the shooting inside the Mall of Louisiana in Baton Rouge as a confrontation between two groups of people and not a random attack. Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill said some innocent bystanders were struck by gunfire.

Police Chief TJ Morse said five people were in custody and there was no ongoing threat to the public.

Three high school seniors from Ascension Episcopal School were among the victims of the shooting, according to a Facebook post from Lafayette Parish President Monique Blanco Boulet.

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“We are heartbroken by the senseless violence that happened today at the Mall of Louisiana in Baton Rouge,” she said, adding that she was asking her community to “join us in holding all of these families close in prayer.”

Rachel Delcambre, a spokesperson for the school, said in an email that the school would not be giving additional information at this time “out of deep respect for the families and the sensitivity of this situation.”

Authorities initially said as many as 10 people had been injured but later revised that number. Morse did not immediately say what set off the shooting at the mall in the Louisiana capital.

Alex Theriot, a commercial electrician, was working on a construction project in the mall a few hundred feet from the food court when gunfire erupted and he heard what sounded like plates of glass shattering. Thinking a shooter might be going store to store, he quickly screwed the door shut of his work site and hunkered down with two other workers. They waited and hoped for the best.

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“Everybody was running and screaming,” Theriot told The Associated Press. “I thought it could have been a terrorist attack.”

Desire Batton, who works at a clothing store, said she and other workers dashed inside a breakroom to protect themselves.

“We hid in there until cops came and got us,” Batton said.

The shooting began around 1:30 p.m. when the two groups argued inside the food court and started shooting at each other, Morse said. The chief made public appeals for witnesses to come forward with any video of the shooting.

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By late afternoon, dozens of police cars still were clustered in the parking lot, multiple helicopters hovered overhead and armed officers in bulletproof vests patrolled the area.

Mall spokesperson Lindsay Kahn called it a “frightening day” for everyone there and said the mall would not reopen Thursday.

Kennedy Barnum, 22, said she had gone to the mall to get lunch at the food court when she heard a woman on the phone outside say, “I’ll call you back. There’s an active shooter in the mall.”

Within five minutes, Barnum said, law enforcement had swarmed the mall. She saw people running and crying, including one girl she described as “hysterical.”

“We spoke to a security guard there and she told us that there was an active shooter there, people were shot and injured, and we should leave immediately,” Barnum said.

It’s at least the second high-profile case of gun violence in Louisiana this week. A father fatally shot eight children, including seven of his own, in an attack on his family Sunday morning that stretched across two houses in a Shreveport neighborhood, police said. Two women, including the gunman’s wife who was the mother of their children, were critically wounded.

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AP reporters Jack Brook in New Orleans and Jim Mustian in Natchitoches, Louisiana, contributed to this story.

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Wolves vs Tottenham: Prediction, kick-off time, TV, live stream, team news, h2h results, odds

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Wolves vs Tottenham: Prediction, kick-off time, TV, live stream, team news, h2h results, odds

It is do or die for Tottenham in their battle to stay in the Premier League, and they have another must-win game on their hands this weekend when they take on Wolves.

Roberto De Zerbi still has not won a game since taking over from Igor Tudor in north London, and the Italian sees his side occupy the final place in the relegation zone with five matches to play.

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