The new season is nearly upon us, with one final weekend of pre-season action left until the United Rugby Championship gets away.
For the third year in a row, a Welsh side made the play-offs last year – with Cardiff following in the footsteps of Ospreys and Scarlets in making the top eight. However, just like the other two, a quarter-final was as good as it got.
The question is, can a Welsh club go further this year? Would reaching the same stage merely represent some success, given the ongoing uncertainty?
And just who will be the best Welsh side this time around?
Let’s start with the side that finished highest last time around. It’s a big season for Cardiff, given the club is celebrating their 150th anniversary this year.
After making the play-offs, the Blue and Blacks are also back in the Champions Cup. How that affects the squad, given the Challenge Cup has been used to help blood the likes of Tom Bowen and Steffan Emanuel in recent seasons, remains to be seen.
In terms of signings, former Australia prop Scott Sio, even at the age of 34, is the eye-catching addition. His experience, having just reached the Prem final with Exeter, will be valuable to the likes of Rhys Barratt and Danny Southworth.
New coach Dan Bowden will look to get Cardiff’s attack firing on all cylinders, with things perhaps naturally fallen off slightly after Matt Sherratt’s departure on the eve of last season.
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However, under Corniel van Zyl, Cardiff have continued to develop from a plucky side to one that can grind out results. Gethin Jenkins’ defence is a big part of that, as is their home form.
Winning another 10 or so games at the Arms Park would be nice, as would a few more victories on the road.
But, ahead of a big season for the club, there’s every reason to believe Cardiff can replicate their achievements from last year.
Moving onto the Dragons, last season finally saw some tangible steps forward for the Men of Gwent.
Three wins and four draws in the league might not look like a lot, with the Rodney Parade outfit still finishing bottom of the pile in terms of Welsh clubs, but Filo Tiatia’s side were considerably more competitive.
Combine that with being within a score of a Challenge Cup final and there’s reasons to be optimistic.
Of course, that is couched by losing the talismanic Aaron Wainwright. How you replace the Wales No. 8 is hard to say.
Terrell Peita will arrive from New Zealand to soften that blow, while Tongan wing Anzelo Tuitavuki and Samoan scrum-half Ere Enari are also on the way.
It’s a settled squad, but – as ever with the Dragons – taking the next step from those initial signs of progress are crucial. The club’s relative safety in Welsh rugby’s madhouse could help.
The same can’t be said out west. As part of the Welsh Rugby Union’s plans to cut a professional side, one of the Ospreys or Scarlets are in the firing line.
Last year was a challenging one for the Ospreys. Owners Y11 were on the brink of buying Cardiff from the WRU, while the uncertainty saw Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake leave for Gloucester.
To lose their captain and vice-captain, Wales’ two skippers, is a monumental blow. There are other key departures too, with Jack Walsh heading to France.
However, Mark Jones’ side have moved to replace them. Wales international Tom Rogers should get opportunities at full-back to replace Walsh, while there’s a distinctly Australian feel to the rest of the business.
Three former Wallabies – Liam Wright, Lalakai Foketi and Marika Koriobete – have joined, as well as Australian playmaker Lawson Creighton.
There’s an element of risk to some. Former Australia captain Wright hadn’t played for over a year due to injury, while dual-code powerhouse Koroibete arrives from Japan via a short stint playing sevens in India.
However, the upside on both is considerable. Foketi, meanwhile, was superb in this year’s Super Rugby semi-final.
Consistency was the problem last year, but if they can fix that, the Ospreys still have the pack to finish higher than last year’s 11th.
The biggest disappointment last year was the Scarlets. Having snuck into the play-offs the previous season on the back of some red-hot form late in the campaign, there was little to celebrate last year beyond Fletcher Anderson’s displays on a weekly basis.
Nigel Davies was brought back as director of rugby to assist Dwayne Peel, while the club had a bit of a squad turnover ahead of the new campaign as James Davies once again showing his knack of finding hidden gems.
Gareth Anscombe, if he stays fit, will give Sam Costelow and Carwyn Leggatt-Jones a wise head to bounce off, while the likes of Cullen Grace and Tom Allen could be solid signings.
Young second-row Will Evans could be a breakthrough for the club, having recently been invited to one of Wales’ alignment camps.
There’s talent in this Scarlets team, particularly in the backline. Several around the club have tipped Macs Page to have a big season after a frustrating year.
But, for whatever reason, it rarely clicked last year. Hopefully, that changes this time around.
So where does that leave us? Right now, the smart bet still seems for Cardiff to be the best-placed Welsh side by the end of the campaign if they maintain their Arms Park record, but the Ospreys could run them close.
The Dragons should take another step forward, but they’ll likely be competing with the Scarlets to avoid whatever the opposite of the Welsh Shield is.
Now the real question – will any finish in the top eight? Cardiff, Ospreys and Scarlets are all 150/1 with some bookies to win the whole thing. Dragons are further back than that.
Unfortunately, we’re probably looking at just one, if any, making the top eight.
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