Kristian Guise: A Tory revival lies in the centre-right not on the failing altar of the New-Right

Kristian Guise, is an undergraduate studying modern history and politics at the University of Southampton.

It’s been nearly two years since Starmer’s government won a landslide majority and eighteen months since the Conservative Party elected Kemi Badenoch as Leader of the Party.

Badenoch herself is a New-Right Tory and began by appointing vocal New-Right leaning members to His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (e.g. yes, the now defector, Robert Jenrick, and still in post, Priti Patel) whilst those appointed members who’d come from a more one-nation background were far less forthcoming with their opinions.

This creates a problem for the Tories because, as the Party moves further to Right we leave more and more of our traditional One-Nation voters behind and fail to present ourselves as a political party with a broad vision. Failure to recognise this will not only cost us the next election but our hold on political relevance. As an 18-year-old member of the Party I believe the Tories should shift policies, rhetoric and vision to the centre-right to win the next General Election.

Since Brexit there has been a continuing movement of ideology and policy Right-ward, propelled by the rise of Reform – the recipients, now, of the services of the aforementioned Jenrick) The Conservative Party has begun to mimic not out-think Reform.

Take the issue of the European Union (EU) and Immigration.

Both policy issues were debated in the past in conversations that were much more constructive despite disagreements amongst members. However, in recent times, there has been a rapid conversion of the Tories to negativity within a focus on binary policymaking. Now there are few Tory MPs, let alone Shadow Cabinet members, who are willing to robustly debate EU and Immigration policy in the way the Party for so long espoused. Mrs Thatcher, for example, was, along with other members of her Cabinet, a Euro-sceptic. Yet this outlook did not prevent the inclusion of vociferous pro-European voices in her Cabinet (Geoffrey Howe was one who as Chancellor of the Exchequer resigned in 1990 over the issue of a single European currency) This shows, despite his resignation that even Thatcher’s government (seen, rightly or wrongly, as the Golden Age of Conservatism for many of today’s Shadow Cabinet members) had high-ranking Cabinet members with strongly held, pro-European sentiments.

That approach to Cabinet inclusivity contrasts with the way the Conservative Party has shifted in their tolerance of different views on the issues of the EU (and Immigration). This significant shift to the Right, I believe, has largely been brought about by a sense of apprehension about the rise of Reform. Where once there was no political alternative for Tory right-wing voters, now they find an option which not only competes but beats them in most instances with higher polling ratings amongst voters and success in local elections upon which Reform builds yet further support.

The Conservative Party’s wasteful mimicry of Reform to retain the support of right-wing voters has cost us, and will continue to cost us, votes. It is the opposite of what we need.

This is for one simple reason: we cannot out-Reform the Reform Party. They were founded on divisive, New-Right focused policies and values, the Tories were not. In an important contrast that should not be overlooked, our Party was founded in 1834 by Sir Robert Peel and a few decades later moulded by Benjamin Disraeli into a party of One-Nation principles and values. With this history in mind and our future in view I call for a return to the centre-right. Surely, we must accept mimicry of Reform is no substitute for originality. What is needed is for the members of today, younger and older, to rise up with vote-catching policies of positivity and pragmatism that offer hope for the UK’s over-taxed and under-rewarded people.

Another case for adopting centre-right policy and, as important, robust rhetoric is the electoral reality that our future majority will be found in the centre ground. The 2024 General Election taught us that. The Liberal Democrat Party (Lib Dems) achieved 72 seats in the House of the Commons. This is the biggest number of seats the party has won since being founded in 1988. This was achieved because they scooped up middle ground voters, including many One-Nation Tories.

One-Nation Tories and other middle ground voters gave their vote to the Lib Dems because they had had enough of the Tory Party and by July 2024 felt alienated. A key reason for such alienation was the poor economic performance that occurred under the Tories. Namely Liz Truss’ ‘Mini-Budget’ which devastated the £ and damaged the economy. Once again, a New-Right Conservative did not pay heed to One-Nation principles of pragmatism opting instead for unfunded, unplanned tax cuts that were unsustainable and, as Labour love to keep reminding the British public at PMQs, Truss “crashed the economy”^[3].

This constant focus on New-Right policies has cost the Tory Party in recent years and is why it is imperative the Party return to the centre-right. Without this shift, millions of middle ground votes will continue to be cast for the Lib Dems. Out of the last three elections where the Conservative Party obtained a majority in the Commons, two were won on One-Nation principles and the other (under Boris Johnson) was also delivered by One-Nation policies.

Since the 1945 General Election there have been twenty-two General Elections, around half won by centre-right policies. This highlights how crucial a well-articulated, vocal and visible centre-right position is for winning elections and why the Conservative Party should adopt a centre-right approach to attract and regain the trust of middle ground voters to win the next General Election.

Embracing the centre-right improves our electability by shedding the baggage of the past 10 years since Brexit. Former Prime Minister David Cameron launched the EU Referendum in 2016 as an attempt to quell the growing tension within the Conservative Party, we have struggled because we have not adhered to our One-Nation roots haunted by the conflicts borne of Brexit. Just as Macbeth never rid himself of Banquo’s ghost, we shall never rid ourselves of the ghost of Brexit until we firmly and positively abandon New-Right principles.

First, accept Brexit’s failures, for without acceptance we can never win anything.

Secondly, make the evidently necessary decision to harness the Party’s policies to centre-right values. Our Party should celebrate young voices. Highlighting their 21st century vision of tomorrow. Unless there is radical change and a vocal, well-articulated move towards the centre-right my Party will fall into the abyss of political irrelevance until we find ourselves with little influence, a third party eking out a subsistence lifestyle.

The trifecta of challenges I outline (dangerous mimicry of Reform, majority of votes being in the middle ground and no policies of positivity to improve our electability) show the Party must shift towards the centre-right, adopt One-Nation principles and be seen and heard to do so!

Our next test comes in May when 32 London Boroughs, 32 Metropolitan Boroughs and 10 directly elected Mayoral offices go to the polls.

With May in the forefront of my mind I’d argue a Tory revival lies in the centre-right not on the failing altar of the New-Right.