Labour doctor by-election poll

On 24 February 2026, a poll came out suggesting Labour, the Green Party, and Reform are neck and neck in the Gorton by-election.

Throughout the race, Labour have claimed they’re the only ones who can beat Reform. As such, it’s not surprising to see them report on the poll like this:

Momentum

For reference, here’s what the poll looks like with the Greens and other parties included:

Labour have created a paradox for themselves here.

On the one hand, they want you to believe this poll is accurate; on the other, they want you to think they’re the only ones who can beat Reform.

Which is it?

The poll also shows something else, and it’s that the Greens have the momentum.

This is what the vote share looked like in the 2024 election:

Should the Opinium poll play out it would mean the parties experienced the following shifts:

• Greens: 10% <<< 28%
• Reform:  9% <<< 27%
• Labour: 50% >>> 28%

Obviously this means voters have abandoned Labour to vote Green (or Reform). So at this stage in the race, which of the two options do you think is most likely?

• Seeing the way the wind is blowing, more voters abandon Labour for the Greens.
• The voters who abandoned Labour decide to un-abandon them despite polling showing the Greens seem most likely to win.

People clocked what Labour are up to anyway, including former Canary contributor Curtis Daly:

All to play for

Journalist Barry Malone said this polling may clarify why Starmer turned up to support the Gorton & Denton race:

We noted yesterday that it was strange for Starmer to show up given his record unpopularity. He’s so unliked, in fact, that he tends to turn voters against whatever he supports, which is why we covered it as follows:

Clearly, Starmer thinks there’s a shot at victory, and he wants to pretend it came because of him – not despite of him.

If the Opinium poll is correct, Labour are doing better than we expected. At the same time, this is clearly a party in decline. And if they do lose, expect the rumours of a leadership challenge against Starmer to increase.

Featured image via Barold