Lord Ashcroft: The Gorton and Denton focus group -“Labour need to go back to the fundamentals and re-establish what they are about”

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

Last week I conducted focus groups among former Labour voters in the Gorton & Denton constituency to see what was on their minds as they prepared to vote in the by-election later this month.

There were mixed feelings about the decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as Labour’s candidate. Several said they had wanted him to stay as Mayor: “He’s done a good job, and he’s visible. He’s fought for us;” “I was like, I want him to stay for Greater Manchester. I don’t think his job is done here. It wasn’t about holding him back from Westminster and challenging Keir Starmer, it was more of the local ‘let’s make Manchester great’.”

Even so, they would have wished him well on his return to parliament: “I’d be quite happy for him to move on and share all that good work with the rest of the UK;” “He’s a very savvy operator and he would have taken that into the halls of Westminster. Let’s face it, Gorton and Levenshulme, Tameside, these places, then majority of politicians down in Westminster couldn’t pick them out on a map. He would have given the interests of those people more clout.”

“It’s quite evidently self-preservation… and now we’re going to get a Reform MP”

Some had positively wanted him to have the chance to mount a leadership challenge, without which they saw no chance for Labour at the next election: “I wanted him to get into power because I think Labour are a dead duck at the moment with Starmer. And I thought, maybe he can change things” (though others argued there was no guarantee that this would work: “I don’t think he could turn it around because Labour, the entity of the Labour Party, has lost its way”).

Whatever they thought about the chances of a Labour revival, nobody believed the reasons given for blocking Burnham: “I think they’ve cut their nose off to spite their face there because Starmer has obviously done it for self-preservation;” “He hasn’t got the party’s best interests at heart making a decision like that;” “They talk about money, but the Labour machine can make one phone call and raise the funds for that. It’s quite evidently self-preservation. He’s taken a ‘you problem’ and made it a ‘me problem’, and now we’re going to get a Reform MP.”

“We’re working harder and harder for less and less”

The Mandelson scandal, together with the Labour government’s record since the election, hardly created an ideal backdrop to the by-election. Though some said 18 months was not long, the sense of disappointment was unmistakeable. “When they came in, he was like, ‘we’re going to get rid of the sleaze, we’re going to be down the line’. And we’ve hit this already;” “It’s not so much the scandals for me. It’s the fact that they got a huge majority based on change, and what have you got?”

The groups felt nothing affecting them had changed for the better since they elected Labour or showed any signs of doing so. They detected no real plan to deal with the problems facing the country: “I would have expected him to work on energy bills and the cost of living. My and my husband’s wages have gone up, but we’re worse off than before because of the cost of everything. We’re working harder and harder for less and less;” “Fair enough, it might take a bit of time, but there’s no real indication that anything’s going to improve. That’s the problem;” “They’re winging it.”

“The leader that can’t lead, the decision maker that shies away from making decisions”

Though they debated whether Keir Starmer should be replaced imminently, few had any confidence in his ability to bring about meaningful change, or to win the next election for Labour: “He’s a cerebral thinker, and I really liked that about him. He didn’t get involved in that jokey pantomime that they cosplay at in the Houses of Parliament. But he’s suddenly become this leader that can’t lead, the decision maker that shies away from making decisions;” “I don’t think this is the moment for him to go. But he’s pissed me off royally;” “I don’t think he’s going to win anything. They need to make the move now to give whoever comes in enough time to steady the ship a little bit”. There was a widespread feeling that the problem went beyond the party leadership: “I feel like they’re beyond broken, if I’m completely honest. From someone who’s been Labour throughout my whole life, I feel like they need to go back to the fundamentals and reestablish what they’re about.”

“It seems like there’s someone who’s got my interests at heart”

For many of our 2024 Labour voters, the by-election was an opportunity to show how they felt about the Starmer government, and Reform UK were the ideal vehicle for doing so. However, most of those intending to back Reform spoke as though it was more than a one-off protest vote: “It’s just a party that kind of represents people who want to work hard and that there will be a reward for that. Whereas with Labour all the hard work just gets taken away from you. It seems like there’s someone who’s got my interests at heart and the effort I put in;” “I’ve had to look elsewhere because I can’t bring myself to vote Labour again. You’ve got to blame Labour for the rise of Reform, because Labour kicked the working man in the teeth. And then all it takes is a Reform wolf-whistle.” The absence of a track record did not deter these voters: “It’s for a brighter future, and we can see hope. And we’ve come to the conclusion that Labour is not giving us that hope. So if there is a glimmer of hope, it’s Reform that makes sense;” “It just feels like we’ve got nothing to lose.”

Reform’s Matt Goodwin was the best known of the by-election candidates in our groups: “He’s a host on GB News. Bit of an intellectual;” “He’s said some awful things but he’s a good communicator, he’s quite intelligent. I’ve seen him canvassing around, so he’s out there and they have put a big gun forward. His name came straight to my mind, and I still can’t think of the Labour candidate’s name.”

“I can’t bring myself to vote Labour again because of the way everything’s gone”

For some of our anti-Reform participants, the priority was to “stop the Farage bandwagon,” though by this stage our participants had no clear picture of which party was best placed to do so. Some said they would reluctantly stick with Labour in an effort to keep Reform out, but this was not a good enough reason for everyone – these others would rather vote positively for something, and didn’t want Labour to take their support for granted: “It’s that split between voting tactically and being authentic, and I have to be authentic. I can’t bring myself to vote Labour again because of the way everything’s gone;” “Something’s got to change with them for me. You can’t just keep relying on my vote.” Only one participant had any clear view about Angeliki Stogia, the Labour candidate: “She’s terribly middle class, although she cracks on, she’s not”.

Responding to Starmer’s campaign statement “It’s Labour versus Reform, and we will fight for renewal, for inclusive communities and bringing people together, and for true patriotism against the plastic patriotism of Reform,” one said: “It’s very well and good and poetic what Keir said there. But I think, show me, don’t tell me. In the last couple of years, I don’t think they’ve really shown me that they give a shit.”

“He’s visible and he’s a credible alternative”

Among these disgruntled Labour voters not tempted by Reform there was considerable interest in the Green Party: “They have been more of a possibility for me recently than ever. They’ve always been seen as a bit of a wasted vote. Whereas now with Zack Polanski, he’s credible. He’s visible and he’s a credible alternative.” Like our potential Reform voters, those attracted to the Greens wanted to do more than vote tactically or register a protest: “We never take that risk and try someone else. I would rather take that risk than stay safe and vote Labour;” “I wouldn’t like to think that was my main reason, to stop somebody else. I’d like to think it was because I believed in what I was voting for a hundred per cent.” Some had heard of Hannah Spencer, though most could not remember her name (and some had heard that one of the candidates was a female plumber but couldn’t remember which party she represented.

Focus groups are clearly not a quantitative exercise, but it was notable that whichever party they intended to support (and with a couple of weeks of campaigning still to go) most of our participants expected Reform to win the by-election, possibly by some margin: “I don’t think it’s going to be as close as people think. I think there are going to be secret Reform votes as well.” Some said this expectation actually made it easier for them not to stick with Labour: “Reform are going to win. That’s why I’m voting Green. I would rather fail and know I’d been true to myself than vote tactically.”