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Lord Ashcroft: Why Labour has a Keir problem and Kemi has a Tory problem

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Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

With both Labour and the Conservatives expected to suffer heavy losses in today’s local elections, attention will no doubt turn to the quality and likely longevity of their respective leaders.

To what extent are Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch electoral assets or liabilities for their parties?

In this month’s poll we asked a pair of related questions about Labour and the Conservatives. First, whether people liked both the party and the leader; liked the leader but disliked the party; liked the party but disliked the leader; disliked both the leader and the party, or if they didn’t know. The responses were as follows:

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Unsurprisingly, many people think the same of the party as they do of the leader: 63 per cent have the same view of Starmer and Labour, and 59 per cent have the same view of Badenoch and the Conservatives. Equally unsurprisingly in today’s political landscape, by far the most common response is to dislike both the party and its leader. Yet around one in five differentiate the party from the leader. In Labour’s case, 75 per cent of such people like the party but dislike Starmer; in the case of the Conservatives, only 33 per cent of such people like the party but dislike Badenoch.

Put another way – stay with me – for every voter who is attracted to Starmer despite being put off by Labour, there are three voters who are put off by Starmer even though they like Labour. Conversely, for every voter who is put off by Badenoch despite being attracted to the Tories, there are two voters who like Badenoch despite being repelled by her party.

This suggests that while Starmer is a net liability for his party and its ability to win over voters, Badenoch is a net asset for hers. Can we take it at face value?

First-rate politicians can reach beyond their party’s core support and win votes from people who would otherwise not consider that party: Reagan Democrats are a case in point, as are Boris Johnson’s appeal in the red wall in 2019 (if not later) and Tony Blair’s success beyond Labour’s traditional heartlands. However, if a leader’s “additional” appeal is among voters who are never going to support that party, it can be redundant or even counterproductive.

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Every month, we ask people to rate how likely they are to vote for each of the UK’s main parties on a scale from zero (definitely not) to 100 (definitely yes). If we look at the same question among people who do not completely reject the party in question (ie. give some score above zero), we find the following:

The pattern is strikingly similar to the previous chart. Among people who do not rule out voting Labour at the next election, 45 per cent dislike Starmer and just 37 per cent like him. In contrast, among the Conservative non-rejecters, 50 per cent like Badenoch and 29 per cent do not.

Another question is whether these groups of voters are coherent political blocs, or simply short-term crystallisations of opinion which will shift with the turbulent political landscape. A way to investigate this is by looking at our political map. This shows the four combinations of opinions for the above question, along with the party’s 2019 and 2024 votes. Plots for Labour are in red and plots for the Conservatives are in blue; the size of a bubble is proportional to the number of voters in the group. The closer points are together, the more similar the people in the respective groups are.

From Labour’s perspective, this shows that the people who like Starmer but who dislike Labour are a very long way from the position of Labour voters at either of the last two general elections. Conversely, the people who like Labour but who dislike Keir Starmer are in precisely the same territory as Labour’s vote at the past two elections.

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Raw vote shares reflect this: just 28 per cent of the former group voted Labour at the last general election (with 34 per cent voting Conservative and 19 per cent voting Lib Dem), whereas 62 per cent of the latter group voted Labour in 2024. Consequently, Starmer has managed to attract the approval of a small group of people who didn’t support Labour even in their 2024 triumph, while angering a much larger group of the party’s natural supporters.

On the other hand, the people who like Badenoch but dislike the Conservatives are situated at around the “three o’clock” point on the political map. There is a fair distance between this and the current Conservative vote, but not the same chasm between the corresponding bubbles for Starmer.

This is the same position as people who voted Conservative in 2019 but who did not do so in 2024: territory the Conservatives lost during the previous parliament and is now hotly contested between the Conservatives and Reform. In 2019, the Conservatives won 53 per cent of the vote in this group; in 2024, this plunged to just 22 per cent. Our previous analysis on uniting the right suggests that for the Conservatives to have any chance of returning to government they must regain ground with this group of voters. So far, little ground has been regained.

Another of our regular questions may shed some light on this: whether people think the Conservatives have changed since their 2024 defeat or learned nothing from that loss. This time last year, just 25 per cent of people were more inclined to agree that the party had changed and learned a lesson from 2024; in our most recent poll, that had climbed to 31 per cent. While this is an improvement, a clear majority of people still believe that the Tories have learned nothing. After being in government for 14 years and after losing the 2024 election so heavily, any Conservative leader would find rebuilding public trust an uphill battle.

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If politics is all about building and sustaining an electoral coalition, Starmer has alienated a swathe of the coalition which put him in power, while only appealing to a small number of people who have little in common politically with most Labour voters. Badenoch has held together a more cohesive voter coalition and has personal appeal among the voters the Tories need to win back, but these voters so far remain unpersuaded by, if not hostile to, the Conservative Party.

Neither leader can expect a pleasant local election night. Yet the underlying issues are mirror images: the Labour Party has a Keir Starmer problem and Kemi Badenoch has a Conservative Party problem.

Full data at LordAshcroftPolls.com

The post Lord Ashcroft: Why Labour has a Keir problem and Kemi has a Tory problem appeared first on Conservative Home.

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Poll: SAVE America Act meets voter skepticism

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Poll: SAVE America Act meets voter skepticism

President Donald Trump has made the SAVE America Act a central GOP priority ahead of the midterms. Voters still don’t know how to feel about it.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show that while many Americans support some core provisions of the SAVE America Act — such as requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote — that support is not overwhelming. And they are far less certain about the sweeping elections bill overall, even as Trump has for months pressured Republican lawmakers to pass it.

Democrats in particular oppose much of the SAVE Act, and many of them are unenthusiastic even about the voter ID provisions that generate the broadest support — a sign that Trump is prioritizing legislation that has little crossover appeal.

A 42 percent plurality of voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 back requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote, including when registering by mail. But that number is dwarfed by the three-quarters of Trump 2024 voters who support such a measure, according to the survey conducted by Public First.

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Asked about the bill overall — by name, but without providing information on what’s included — just 37 percent of Americans said they support it, and 21 percent oppose it. A larger share, 42 percent, say they neither support nor oppose the SAVE America Act, or are unsure.

Slightly more Americans say the bill will make elections fairer (38 percent) than those who say it will make elections less fair (32 percent). But 30 percent say they don’t know — another sign that their views on the issue are still forming even as the president wields it as a campaign cudgel.

“We are either going to fix” elections, he wrote on his Truth Social recently, casting it in existential terms, “or we won’t have a Country any longer.”

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The findings reveal that though voter ID and proof of citizenship are popular, the SAVE America Act has not broken through in the same way. In addition to requiring proof of citizenship, the bill would also require states to regularly review voter lists and remove non-citizens.

“Voter ID is very popular, but the SAVE Act has been loaded up with other stuff,” said Buzz Brockway, a GOP strategist and former state representative in Georgia. “I think Senate Republicans should strip the bill back to Voter ID only. It still won’t pass because of Democratic opposition, but it would be a more popular bill.”

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said the SAVE America Act is “commonsense legislation supported by the vast majority of Americans … who want to ensure our elections are secure and that only American citizens vote in American elections.”

The SAVE America Act passed the House in February and has stalled in the Senate amid GOP divisions and staunch Democratic opposition. Four Republican senators — Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — recently voted against an amendment that would have helped the legislation get across the finish line as part of a broader reconciliation package, raising new questions about its path forward in a narrowly divided Congress.

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Critics of the legislation say it would make it much harder for Americans who lack the proper documentation — such as a paper copy of a birth certificate or passport — to vote.

“The SAVE Act will make it exceedingly and unacceptably difficult for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Americans, to be heard,” Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock said in a brief interview recently. “And so if all the people in the election can’t be heard, who are eligible to vote, then that’s something other than democracy.”

“I don’t think the American public knows what is in store for them if [the SAVE ACT] passes,” said Hawaii Democratic Sen. Mazie Hirono. “Millions of people are going to need to re-register.”

In the absence of movement in Congress, Republicans in some statesare pushing forward with their own efforts to impose proof of citizenship requirements to their voting laws. Several red states, including Arkansas and Kansas, are expected to vote on measures this November that mirror the federal SAVE America Act.

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Lawmakers in the battlegrounds of Alaska and Michigan have also garnered the required signatures to put citizenship questions before voters — two states that could test whether Americans’ support for such measures in public opinion polling translates to the ballot box.

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The House Article | True governance lies closer to home than Westminster

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True governance lies closer to home than Westminster
True governance lies closer to home than Westminster

The headquarters of Derby City Council in Derbyshire (Rob Atherton/Alamy)


3 min read

Public and media debate is often dominated by what happens in Westminster. Yet most decisions affecting lives and places begin much closer to home.

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England’s system of governance is complex, layered – and rooted in communities themselves.

At the heart of that system sit parish and town councils. Nearly 100,000 councillors across 10,000 councils, invest more than £2bn each year in the places they serve. As a parish councillor myself in the North West of England and chair of the National Association of Local Councils (Nalc), I see first hand the impact this hyperlocal tier of government makes – and its potential if fully embraced and realised.

That is why Nalc has been closely engaged with the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill. Its ambition – to deliver simpler, faster and more consistent devolution – is understandable. Local government in England does need to change. And the first tier of local government must be part of that renewal.

Many amendments aimed at recognising and cementing parish and town councils within this new framework are welcome, particularly regarding neighbourhood governance, which is why Nalc has strongly supported them. But government resistance to going further risks missing a crucial opportunity. If devolution is to work, it must work all the way down. This matters more than ever. Fewer unitary authorities will mean fewer elected representatives. Parish and town councils can and should help bridge that democratic gap – but only if they are properly recognised, resourced and empowered.

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That requires growth in both number and scale, backed by targeted investment from local and strategic authorities as well as national government. It requires parish and town councils to be at the heart of any neighbourhood arrangements, meaning both area working of unitary authorities and the default model for neighbourhood governance structures.

And it also requires smarter devolution. Too often, power is transferred in the guise of assets and responsibilities – but without the funding or support needed to sustain them. A more balanced approach is needed, one that values the long-term social, environmental and economic benefits of community ownership that parish and town councils provide. And a genuine resetting and rewiring of relations between the tiers of local government.

It also means strengthening local democracy itself. Parish and town councils need the tools to be more inclusive, representative and open, building upon ways they already involve and engage communities and by embracing new approaches to participation, such as community assemblies and participatory budgeting. A greater focus on capacity building and training is also required.

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Too often, power is transferred in the guise of assets and responsibilities — but without the funding or support needed to sustain them

Devolution will only succeed if it works at every level. The question now is whether this moment will be seized, to fully recognise and resource that potential, or whether the gap between communities and decision making will grow wider still.

The English Devolution Bill is not the only test. The Representation of the People Bill now before the Commons could also be a game-changer – widening participation, diversifying candidates and revitalising grassroots democracy. But its promise will only be realised through practical reform: simpler nominations, digital tools, remote meetings, fairer election costs and stronger support for those hyperlocal heroes who step to serve. The upcoming King’s Speech is also a chance to bring forward other legislation needed to enhance and empower local democracy further, such as strengthening the standards regime. 

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At Nalc, we will continue working with parliamentarians to ensure parish and town councils are not an afterthought – but strive to reach their potential and are the foundation of England’s democratic future. 

Cllr Iain Hamilton is chair of the National Association of Local Councils 

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Zack Polanski: snake-oil salesman – spiked

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Zack Polanski: snake-oil salesman

Why do people change their names? To seem more glamorous, is the obvious answer. But even actors, who used to do it the most (or more accurately, have it done to them by their studio bosses) have pretty much stopped doing it now. Singers mostly, too. The days of Billy Fury, Marty Wilde and Chubby Checker are long gone, although somewhat understandably Peter Gene Hernandez called himself Bruno Mars after being told he should be making ‘Spanish music’ as a teenager. And I guess Elizabeth Grant wouldn’t sound half as sumptuously sexy and sad as Lana Del Ray does.

We don’t expect politicians to change their names, suggesting as it does a kind of fakery. Some might wish they could. Would you trust your vote with Mark Reckless? Chris Pincher’s name turned out to be sadly apt. Ed Balls never stopped spouting rubbish. Lady Garden of the Lib Dems sounds fragrant. And Samantha Niblett recently outed herself as sex-mad.

So why did these brave souls stick with their given names and David Paulden change his to ‘Zack Polanski’? Apparently, he did it at 18 to reclaim his Jewish heritage, his grandparents having anglicised it to avoid anti-Semitism, and chose ‘Zack’ as he didn’t get along with his stepfather, also a David. Still, it’s an unfortunate choice, considering the sex crimes of the director Roman Polanski, and that our humble hero would go on to become the legendary ‘Tit Whisperer’. And as for ‘Zack’ – that’s the choice of a man who mouths ‘Rock star!’ into the bathroom mirror many a morning.

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At times, Polanski’s life seems like a political satire about the rise of the man least likely to. ‘Zack’ was a thespian before his political career, but don’t be looking for him on old episodes of The Bill, as he primarily worked as an ‘immersive theatre actor’. His top credit on Wikipedia is ‘a university production of Shopping and Fucking’, so it’s not like he had to tear himself away from the roar of the crowds like, say, Glenda Jackson when she became an MP. He also taught at something called the National Centre for Circus Arts, which explains why he seems to believe that be-clowning oneself is normal.

Then came what we may think of as his ‘Hypno-Tits’ years, the apex of which saw him getting pranked by a Sun journalist who asked him what the chances were of her being inflated to Page 3 dimensions. It’s funny that acting and lying were Polanski’s passions before he went into politics, as to most of the jaded electorate, this is exactly what our Honourable Members do.

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His rise in politics has been rapid, further convincing one that he is an operator. Contrasting with the fact that many politicians start planning their careers while still at university, our humble hero wasn’t interested until he reached his 30s (he’s still only 43). Presumably, he finally accepted that working in the ‘Theatre of the Oppressed’ (which involves meeting people who have allegedly suffered injustice and then playing them on stage, a process which he says politicised him) wasn’t going to win him any gongs. As with the tit-whispering, this should ring alarm bells; what sort of person isn’t interested in politics until their thirties, and then only when their first career choice of showing off for a living fails?

In an interview with Zoe Williams of the Guardian last year, Polanski relaxed in the presence of an obvious acolyte, and the result was a rather amusing interface, somewhat how one imagines Dumbo and his mother relating before the evil circus man separated them. ‘He has a dewy, wide-eyed look’, she reported breathlessly. ‘He means to retake patriotism. “We should love our country. Loving your community is loving your country.”’ As an actor, ‘he still felt that “politics was a dirty thing that didn’t really change anything”’. He describes some of the theatre he was making at this time, with the company that later became Punchdrunk – wild, participatory productions in which the audience is invited to alter the course of events. In one performance, an audience member rugby-tackled one of the actors to prevent a murder. In another, Polanski played a leader stewarding the audience into an environmental crisis, and they had to overthrow him…

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The interview is quite something:

‘His experience as an actor has left Polanski with a genuinely unusual style of political communication – he doesn’t equivocate, his manner is quite urgent and arresting, he never drones, but nor is he embarrassed to say something very simple, even if it sounds schlocky, or boastful. He tells me that the video he launched announcing his leadership bid has been seen 1.4million times. “It’s had hundreds, maybe even thousands of people responding, and I would say 99 per cent of those things are, ‘Is this what hope feels like?”’

Is this what hope feels like? I don’t believe that Barack Obama at his most rhetorical would have chanced that one, and he had all the equipment. It’s clear that Polanski is very high on his own supply. It’s pure self-belief that drove him so quickly up the greasy pole; joining the Lib-Dems in 2015 and standing unsuccessfully for local council elections in London; heckling Corbyn at a rally in 2016 and tweeting that as ‘a pro-European Jew’ he had ‘two reasons I couldn’t vote for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn’; and joining the Green Party in 2017. Since then, it’s been a jolly round of musical chairs, with that weird three-legged-race thing the Greens do with the ‘sharing’ leadership – Lucas and Bartley, 2016-2018; Bartley and Berry, 2018-2021; Denyer and Ramsay, 2021-2025 – until Polanski took over last year.

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No sharing for him. Only the solo spotlight will suit this cracked actor. To be fair, he’s struck a chord with a lot of disillusioned Labour voters. Membership of the Greens is the highest ever, having grown by 55 per cent since Polanski’s election as leader. They’ve got more councillors than ever before – 859 seats across 181 councils – and now some polls have put them head-to-head with Reform UK at the forthcoming local elections.

Didn’t he do well? Nevertheless, he gives me the creeps. Polanski has cultivated a gentle, come-to-me-my-flock look — but when he is questioned persistently, a look of imperious confusion followed by a flash of real contempt and anger comes through. Being grilled by Laura Kuenssberg in early May, he came across as testy and slippery. When he talks with his hands, which he does often, one is irretrievably reminded of his breast-building days, and how perhaps he must have described similar circles in the air. It distracts me from what he’s saying – which is just as well, as he really does spout bunkum.

We’ve all heard his blather about the allegedly heavy-handed police in Golders Green, his ridiculous accusations of Israeli ‘genocide’ and, of course, his ludicrous championing of transvestites’ fetishes over women’s rights. But due to the monumental incompetence and unpopularity of Labour, the Greens look set to clean up at the local elections.

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Hopefully, they carry within them the seeds of their own destruction. Every party can be said to have different factions, but none as contradictory as the middle-class anything-goes brigade on one wing of the Greens and the extremely reactionary Muslim wing on the other. We all know the one issue that unites them.

If the safety of our heartbreakingly loyal and small Jewish community wasn’t so threatened, it would be fun to see what transpires from this loveless liaison. The Greens were always in competition with the Lib Dems for the floating crank vote, somehow managing to come across as both broad-minded and authoritarian – Legz Akimbo join the Stasi – and this time they look liable to outdo themselves, picking up a sizeable part of the solid crank Labour vote, too. Polanski can change his name all he wants – but the whiff of the snake-oil salesman will always be strong with this one.

Julie Burchill is a spiked columnist. Follow her Substack, ‘Notes from the Naughty Step’, here.

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Wings Over Scotland | Pick Your Poison

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At the end of last year we noted the unusual and persistent levels of divergence in Scottish political polling. As polls have become much more frequent during the election campaign, nothing about that has changed. The final polls, published yesterday, are so far apart from each other that they tell us basically zip.

Analysing this mess is meaningless, so we’ll just give you some highlights.

On the constituency vote the SNP are in either the low 30s or the low 40s, either 12 points ahead of Labour, 20 points ahead of Labour, or 24 points ahead of Reform.

On the list they’re either 1 ahead of Reform, 8 ahead of them, or 13 ahead of Labour.

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The Greens are either in 3rd, 4th or 6th place on the list, where they’re either 1, 2 or a whopping 12 points behind Reform. The Lib Dems are either 6th with 8%, or 4th with 12% (which is a non-trivial 50% more, arithmetic lovers). Reform have either more than twice as much support as the Tories (22-10), or just four points more (17-13).

That 10% would likely get the Tories one list seat per region, whereas the 13% might well get them twice as many. Similar applies to the Lib Dems, whose low of 8% definitely wouldn’t get them more than one seat per region, but whose high of 12% could – with luck and a following wind – just about double that.

The Greens’ lowest list score (10%) would garner one seat per region, but their highest (17%) would all but guarantee two per region and could conceivably get them as many as three per region. The same applies to Labour, whose lowest is 12% and highest is 19%, but who have a better chance of winning constituency seats.

(The number of Green list seats is quite likely to determine whether there’s a pro-indy majority or not, so a couple of percentage points either way could be crucial in terms of the ultimate shape of the government, though it’ll make sod-all difference in terms of independence. The SNP-Labour coalition might yet happen.)

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And of course, it depends on whose voters, if anyone’s, are most motivated to turn out, and how many of the 20% who still say they’re undecided make their minds up, and whether it rains or not, and the price of cheese and whether Venus is rising in Uranus. Frankly, our dears, we haven’t got a scooby.

So we’re having the day off, and we’ll see you tomorrow for the results. Your guess, at this stage, is as good as ours.

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‘Our Keir is going nowhere’

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‘Our Keir is going nowhere’

The post ‘Our Keir is going nowhere’ appeared first on spiked.

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Pro-Palestine sectarians are poisoning democracy

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Pro-Palestine sectarians are poisoning democracy

On Thursday, England goes to the polls for the local elections. In theory, this is the most prosaic form of democracy we have. A chance to vote on the administration of bin collections, pothole fixing, planning applications and council taxes.

Councils are not meant to function as a stage for sectarian grievance or foreign-policy cosplay. Yet, across a growing number of English councils, that is what local politics is becoming. Over the past month, I have spent many hours analysing candidates whose political pitch revolves not around their ward, but around Gaza and the politics of the wider Muslim world.

Some of these ‘pro-Palestine’ candidates should be nowhere near public office. Amu Gib, who is standing as an independent in Islington, was allegedly part of the ton last year, in which Palestine Action activists are alleged to have caused £7million damage. Shahid Butt, standing as an independent candidate in Birmingham, was convicted in Yemen in 1999 over a plot to bomb the British consulate, an Anglican church and a hotel. An independent in Bradford, Sharat Hussain, has described Jews as ‘dirty paedo foreskin-eating pigs’.

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It is hardly unreasonable to ask what this says about the calibre of people now being drawn into politics by their loathing of Israel. Local-election campaigns are becoming a vehicle for imported rage and council chambers are imagined not as a place to govern a borough, but as a place to perform allegiance to a foreign cause.

My recent report for the Henry Jackson Society sought to measure this phenomenon rather than merely gawp at it. It used ‘Muslim sectarian’ not as a label for Muslim candidates, but as an operational category for candidates whose public political appeal is repeatedly structured around Muslim communal grievance, Muslim representation or transnational Muslim causes.

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On that definition, 66 out of 1,902 wards in the 2024 English local elections elected at least one Muslim sectarian candidate. The strongest predictors of a ward electing at least one Muslim sectarian candidate are higher voter turnout, a larger proportion of voters under 30, and a larger proportion of Muslims.

A one-point increase in voter turnout within a ward is associated with a 14 per cent increase in the chance of electing at least one Muslim sectarian candidate. A one-point increase in the under-30 share is associated with an 11 per cent higher chance, and a one-point jump in the ward’s Muslim proportion is associated with a seven per cent higher chance. These are not causal claims. They do not mean Muslim voters or young voters are inherently sectarian. They mean that where the numbers, demographics and mobilisation structures are in place, this sectarian politics can break through.

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This is bad for everyone, especially Muslims. It reduces Muslim voters to a grievance constituency. It rewards candidates who inflame rather than govern.

Local democracy depends on shared civic life. A councillor is not elected to represent only those who share his religion, ethnicity, foreign-policy obsessions or communal grievances. He represents the whole ward: the people who voted for him, the people who voted against him and the people who did not vote at all. This basic civic ideal is being corroded by sectarian politics. We need to confront this threat before we lose this ideal entirely.

Emma Schubart is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Menin’s Fair Fares push tests Mamdani

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City Council Speaker Julie Menin is proposing to expand an existing city discount program for low-income residents, as an alternative to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s fast and free bus plan.

City Council Speaker Julie Menin is proposing to expand an existing city discount program for low-income residents, as an alternative to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s fast and free bus plan.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 36 

ALL’S FARE: City Council Speaker Julie Menin portrayed Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s administration today as stuck running a failing mass transit discount program.

The alternative? Her own plan to provide free fares to hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers.

Drawing that very particular contrast served as an attempt to turn the tables on Mamdani, who made free buses a key campaign pledge. Menin’s preferred approach is to expand Fair Fares — an existing discount for low-income residents — into a free bus and subway program for people at or below 150 percent of the poverty level.

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In the process, Menin and other Council members poked the administration for not enrolling enough people in the current iteration of Fair Fares by failing to cut unnecessary red tape. Right now, less than 40 percent of eligible people participate, leaving half a million New Yorkers paying full freight for rides they could get at half price.

Menin called it “failing” and blamed a multi-step enrollment process that includes downloading an app and filing out a lengthy form.

“There has to be a recognition that the system is broken,” she said during a Council hearing today.

Rebecca Chew, a chief program officer from the city’s Human Resources Administration, told Menin the agency “worked hard to streamline the process and identify efficiencies, and it’s something we’re continuously looking at to improve and refine.” Later, Chew said that nearly half the people enrolled in one year — right now that’s 380,000 — fail to re-enroll in the next.

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Fair Fares largely predates Mamdani, but under lengthy questioning from Council Member Crystal Hudson, Chew and her colleagues did not offer specific targets for improving enrollment.

The Council is seeking to make enrollment automatic.

Menin opened the hearing by saying she was “very disappointed” in the Mamdani administration for not sending the head of the Department of Social Services to testify.

“I’d be remiss if I did not express our deep disappointment in that,” she said.

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Mamdani has not yet taken a position on the Council proposal.

The democratic socialist has long been skeptical of means-tested programs. But by his own admission, his free-buses-for-all plan isn’t going to happen this year, which creates an awkward situation: He now appears unwilling to support an arguably half-loaf solution that would nonetheless help hundreds of thousands of people ride the bus and subway for free.

“Fair Fares is an important tool for low-income New Yorkers but does not reach enough of them,” Mamdani spokesperson Jeremy Edwards said in an email. “The administration is reviewing all Fair Fares proposals. We will continue to encourage eligible residents to enroll in Fair Fares and work with city and state partners to make transit more affordable for all New Yorkers.” — Ry Rivard

From the Capitol

State Sen. John Liu introduced a bill to increase the cost of marriage licenses and a City Hall wedding in New York City.

WEDDING BELL$: With New York City mired in red ink, one new idea might help Mamdani make a very small dent in the very big budget shortfall.

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City officials have reached out to state lawmakers to let the City Council hike the cost of a City Hall wedding from $25 to $55 and the fee for a marriage license from $25 to $60.

The fee increases would be a miniscule boon to the city’s financial needs — perhaps to the tune of $4 million a year. And the sponsors in the state Legislature say the bill isn’t written with balancing the budget in mind

The fees haven’t been increased since the early 1990s, and the administrative costs of performing a wedding have since risen to $126 — meaning the total fee hike to $115 would simply mean city government loses less money on each ceremony.

“This is a request from the Marriage Bureau, so I think it makes sense,” said state Sen. John Liu, who introduced a bill on the subject Tuesday. “It’s important that people don’t view this as a marriage penalty — no one likes fees and no one likes fee increases, but it’s been the same for decades.”

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Assembly Judiciary Committee Chair Charles Lavine expects critics won’t hesitate to gripe about the minor change: “’If we make it more expensive to get married, then fewer people will get married,’” he said, predicting the GOP response.

The issue is being discussed outside of budget talks, so it will need to be dealt with in the dwindling number of session days before state lawmakers pack it in on June 4.

“We are going to be stuck with a handful of legislative days,” Lavine said. “I hope it’ll work. It’s about time those fees will be made a little more substantial.”

Mamdani has paid more attention to the Marriage Bureau than any of his predecessors — he’s notably the only modern mayor to stop by the City Clerk’s office to officiate ceremonies himself. — Bill Mahoney

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NO ICE MELT: White House border czar Tom Homan’s threat of an ICE surge into New York if a package of sanctuary measures are approved isn’t deterring Democratic state lawmakers.

“If anything, it makes me want to double down,” Democratic state Sen. Pat Fahy said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and state lawmakers are close to an agreement on a series of bills that would limit how federal immigration agencies like ICE can coordinate with local police departments. They also plan to limit where civil deportation warrants can be executed, blocking them from being carried out in locations like educational facilities and houses of worship.

Read more from POLITICO’s Nick Reisman

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FROM CITY HALL

Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced in February an audit on city agencies' response protocols with federal immigration enforcement.

ICE VENDOR FACES HEAT: Mamdani’s administration is scrutinizing NYPD contracts with a surveillance technology company that’s faced criticism for doing business with federal immigration authorities, our Chris Sommerfeldt reports today.

The examination of the NYPD’s dealings with Vigilant Solutions is part of an ongoing audit process being conducted by Mamdani’s administration at the police department and five other city agencies.

Mamdani ordered the reviews in February with the stated goal of strengthening New York City’s sanctuary laws as President Donald Trump’s administration continues its aggressive — and at times lethal — immigration crackdowns across the U.S. The laws bar city employees and resources from being used to assist federal authorities in civil immigration matters.

The revelation that the NYPD audit is looking at a private company indicates Mamdani wants to scrutinize not just whether the department is complying with the sanctuary laws but also its vendors. In ordering the audits, Mamdani specified they may result in “changes and updates to policies and protocols,” suggesting the singling out of Vigilant could come with repercussions for its NYPD contracts.

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Asked why the police department’s Vigilant connections are being scrutinized in particular, mayoral spokesperson Sam Raskin provided little clarity. “The Mamdani administration has engaged with a number of agencies on their policies, guidelines and procedures related to federal immigration enforcement,” he said Tuesday. “We will share more soon.”

As part of the audit process, a questionnaire directed the NYPD to submit a “draft audit” to the mayor’s office with responses to all inquiries by April 20. The form then says the NYPD and the mayor’s office would review the draft before a finalized submission to Mamdani by Thursday.

Read the story from Chris in POLITICO here

ON A RELATED MATTER: When Jeff Blau of Related Companies sat for an interview at a real estate conference Wednesday, he likely expected a friendly crowd.

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But three separate times during a 30-minute interview, activists from the left-leaning New York Communities for Change interrupted his remarks to protest a tentative Adams administration deal under which Blau’s firm would benefit from some $2 billion in public subsidies to complete Hudson Yards.

“$2 billion of taxpayer’s money!” the activists, who were quickly rushed out of the room, shouted. “Shame on you! Shame on you, Related!”

The progressive advocacy group is pushing the Mamdani administration to scrap the public financing scheme — calling it a “boondoggle” and the “biggest corporate bailout in New York City history.”

That tentative deal is now up to Mamdani, but he’s not rushing to move it forward. Mayoral spokesperson Matt Rauschenbach said Wednesday: “We are not actively engaged in negotiations to move this project forward at this time.”

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Blau said he still hopes to advance the project.

“Our hope is that we will announce a transaction this year, we’ll start construction on another 3 million square foot office building and probably start about 2,500 apartments at the same time, 625 affordable units,” Blau said at the conference. “So really a great addition to New York City.”

The ticketed event Wednesday was hosted by The Real Deal, a trade publication that covers the real estate industry. Founder and publisher Amir Korangy, who interviewed Blau, slammed the interruptions.

“This is not the right venue for this,” Korangy said, clearly exasperated by the third instance. “This was clearly coordinated.”

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He added, to some chuckles, “I mean, at least they bought tickets.”

Blau was generally bullish on New York City and offered some praise of the mayor, even as other members of the business elite have raised concerns about his approach in recent days.

“I think the mayor is very, very supportive of new housing construction and is trying to eliminate barriers,” Blau said.
“He’s just getting started and our hope is that he will continue to do that and he will focus on things like [485-x] and engage with the private sector,” he added, referring to the property tax incentive for New York City residential projects that has garnered criticism from the industry.

“We’re doing things all around the country and even globally, but New York City is our home,” Blau continued. “This is the greatest city in the world, despite the protesters. I’m committed to New York City.” — Janaki Chadha

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FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman told reporters that climate change concerns should not influence energy policy decisions.

BLAKEMAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman demurred when asked today if he believed in climate change during a press conference at the state Capitol.

“Would it be accurate to say that you believe in climate change?” Blakeman was asked.

“I’m not a scientist and I’m not an engineer,” he responded. “Anytime we can make the environment better with a commonsense solution that’s affordable and makes sense, why not?”

Minutes before, Blakeman stressed to reporters that concerns about climate change shouldn’t guide energy policy decisions.

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“To take drastic measures and pretend that you’re actually going to change the carbon footprint of our state and that’s going to have a material effect on the world is complete, utter fiction,” Blakeman said. “Our carbon footprint is miniscule compared to the rest of the world.”

His comments come as Democrats like Hochul are struggling to keep up with the state’s ambitious green policies. The governor poised to win changes to weaken New York’s climate law in the budget, eliminating a near-term deadline to reduce emissions.

Playbook followed up with Blakeman’s campaign this afternoon to ask if he’s landed on a stance on whether he believes climate change is real. We haven’t heard back yet. Jason Beeferman

IN OTHER NEWS

SCRUB-A-DUB: Mamdani’s administration has quietly removed a landing page on the city Economic Development Corporation’s website promoting New York City’s business ties to Israel. (Free Beacon)

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LONG LINES: The number of Long Island families receiving food stamps has grown significantly as thousands may lose access following eligibility changes. (Newsday)

IN THE STREETS: Pro-Palestinian and Pro-Israel protestors were met with a heavy police presence outside Park East Syngogue, which was hosting an event on land sales in Israel. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

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Zack Polanski is a joke that isn’t funny anymore

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Zack Polanski is a joke that isn’t funny anymore

I guess it’s only fitting that Zack Polanski has been accused of telling porkies about his career. The Green Party leader who thinks men can identify as women apparently spent years identifying as a British Red Cross spokesman and a fully licensed hypnotherapist.

Polanski is a figure by turns despicable and risible. The latest revelations fall into the latter bucket. According to The Times, he passed off his efforts hosting fundraisers for the Red Cross as a formal spokesman role with the charity, even bragging on his website in 2020 that he was ‘really proud of the work we do’ (my emphasis).

As for the hypnotherapy thing (Polanski claimed to be a full member of the National Council of Hypnotherapy), this has only served to remind people of the creepiest and most embarrassing chapter of his professional life: when he had a practice on Harley Street and claimed he could enlarge women’s breasts with his skills. I for one am shocked that a bloke who claimed he could do hypno boob jobs might not have been on the up and up.

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Natch, Polanski has accused the right-wing media of having a vendetta against him. But he apparently can’t stop giving them ammunition. And I don’t just mean by massaging his CV. Indeed, I hope his colourful past doesn’t steal focus from the shameful things he is saying and doing in the present – particularly on anti-Semitism.

After two Jews were knifed in Golders Green, the heart of Jewish north London, last week, you might have expected the self-appointed leader of the ‘anti-racist’ left to have something strong to say about it. Instead, we got a perfunctory tweet from Polanski, which interestingly omitted the words ‘Jews’ and ‘anti-Semitism’.

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If only he had stopped there. Instead, Our Zack proceeded to share posts criticising the police for how they subdued the suspect – they gave the scumbag a few stern kicks to the head, fearing he might be wearing a suicide vest, as they wrestled to get the knife off him.

After a rebuke from Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley, Polanski apologised. Kinda. When pressed over the weekend, he conceded only that – while he remained concerned, even ‘traumatised’, by the treatment of the suspect – he should have taken it up with the cops in private, rather than on social media.

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Personally, if I was looking for a word to describe how I felt watching that arrest footage, ‘traumatised’ is not the one I’d land on. (That kicking might have been the first time I’ve ever envied a copper.) But trying to turn an attack on Jews into a conversation about police brutality is only the latest, despicable distraction tactic to be used by ‘progressives’ whenever Jew hatred rears its head.

The reflex is always to deflect, to change the subject. Polanski even made a point on Sky News on Sunday of saying that the suspect, Essa Suleiman, also allegedly stabbed a Muslim man (a friend of his) in south-east London before going on his rampage in Golders Green.

What is the point of this comment, if not to dilute the distinctly anti-Jewish nature of the (alleged) attack in Golders Green? Only Polanski can know. But it looks and feels like Zack – like many on the ‘pro-Palestine’ left – struggles to compute the distinct threat to Jewish life and so feels compelled to diminish and generalise it.

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You’ll have noticed this tic. After a little throat-clearing about how awful anti-Semitism is, leftists will suddenly pivot to Islamophobia, or racism in general – issues on which they’re much more comfortable. Because staying on topic would provoke awkward questions about their own role in fomenting the Jew hatred in our midst.

On this score, the Green Party is now the prime offender, picking up where Corbyn’s Labour left off. There have been a slew of stories of late about Green local-election candidates and activists spewing pond-scum anti-Semitism. And no, we’re not talking about ‘criticisms of Israel’, as some remain determined to dress it up. We’re talking about calling Jews ‘cockroaches’, dismissing October 7 as a ‘false flag’, and openly praising the rapists and butchers of Hamas. At least 25 Greens have a history of anti-Semitism. Two were arrested last week on suspicion of inciting racial hatred.

And what is the Green Party doing about it? Only a handful of these candidates have been sanctioned. Mark Adderley, standing in Crystal Palace in south London, was suspended after his rants about ‘the chosen people’ were uncovered, but his local party is still urging people to vote for him. Co-deputy leader Mothin Ali has even been encouraging some ousted candidates to take legal action against his own party.

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Polanski says these are just a few bad apples, that there are anti-Semites in every party, that the establishment is just trying to take him down, etc. Presumably the media are choosing only to report on the Greens’ Jew haters. Perhaps he thinks Bibi Netanyahu put them up to it.

But this won’t wash. The Greens have succumbed to anti-Israel hysteria, which is the seedbed of the new anti-Semitism. All the ancient anti-Semitic tropes about Jews – as baby killers, puppeteers, sneaky subversives – have just been dolled up as ‘anti-Zionism’. And as the Greens’ candidates list attests, the Jew haters aren’t even bothering to make the distinction anymore.

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Polanski, himself a Jewish man, can hardly be accused of being an anti-Semite. But he has become a prisoner of his own low-wattage worldview. The anti-Israel zealot cannot compute the new anti-Semitism, because doing so would require admitting he is part of the problem.

Plus, it would require admitting that much of this Jew hatred is coming from Muslim communities, which the Greens are desperate to court in our more ‘diverse’ cities. Political calculation meets moral cowardice.

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Politics Home Article | The Rundown Podcast: What To Look Out For At The Local Elections

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The Rundown Podcast: What To Look Out For At The Local Elections
The Rundown Podcast: What To Look Out For At The Local Elections


2 min read

As voters nationwide prepare to go to the polls for a highly anticipated set of local elections tomorrow (Thursday), this week we have a special episode giving you a guide to the key results, when to expect them, how to interpret them, and what might happen next.

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With around 5,000 council seats in England up for grabs on 7 May, along with six mayoralities, every seat at Holyrood and in the newly expanded Senedd, the Labour Party is braced for an extremely painful evening, which will likely put renewed pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership over the weekend.

At the same time, the Conservatives’ electoral woes are expected to continue, in what would be a reminder of the work leader Kemi Badenoch has to do to repair the party’s brand following its heavy general election defeat in 2024.

Meanwhile, signs point to the UK’s insurgent smaller parties, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Zack Polanski’s Greens, winning many hundreds of seats across the country.

There are also expected to be gains for Liberal Democrats and independent candidates, further demonstrating Britain’s shift to multi-party politics.

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To discuss all of that and more, host of The Rundown podcast, Alain Tolhurst, is joined by Luke Tryl, UK Director at think tank More in Common, along with Dr Hannah Bunting, Senior Lecturer at Exeter University and co-director of The Elections Centre, plus PoliticsHome’Adam Payne and The House magazine’s Sienna Rodgers.


The Rundown is presented by Alain Tolhurst, and is produced by Nick Hilton and edited by Ewan Cameron for Podot

  • Click here to listen to the latest episode of The Rundown, or search for ‘PoliticsHome’ wherever you get your podcasts.

 

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The House | The UK’s ‘visa brake’ risks punishing students from conflict-affected countries

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The UK's ‘visa brake’ risks punishing students from conflict-affected countries
The UK's ‘visa brake’ risks punishing students from conflict-affected countries


4 min read

The blanket ban on certain overseas student visas will do little to tackle the asylum backlog, while harming the prospects of young people in some of the world’s most dangerous countries.

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In the current political climate, headlines often move at breakneck speed. But rushed political decisions, made with little scrutiny, can cause lasting harm that far outlasts the news cycle.

When the Home Secretary blocked student visas for nationals of Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan, alongside skilled worker visas for Afghans, last month, the rationale was that it would reduce strain on and abuse of the asylum system. However, the government estimates that the 18-visa month visa brake will reduce asylum claims by only 1,400. Set against more than 160,000 applications over the last 18 months, this will do little to address existing backlogs, while carrying serious consequences for people from impacted countries.

Entering the UK with permission to study and later claiming asylum because war erupts or repression intensifies at home is not misuse. It is the protection system working as intended. The evidence supports this: in 2025, 94 per cent of Sudanese asylum applicants were granted protection. These are people seeking protection from well-documented violence and persecution, not looking for loopholes. I am in Sudan currently, and it offers a stark illustration; the country is facing the world’s worst humanitarian crisis since records began, and millions of young people have been denied access to education.

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One Sudanese colleague, who arrived in the UK on a Chevening scholarship, explained that “the study visa is not just an opportunity, it represents hope, stability, and a pathway to building a better future. A lot of time, effort, and hope have already been invested in this process.”

At the International Rescue Committee (IRC), we work with people from the moment they are forced to flee, through to rebuilding their lives in safety.  All four countries affected by the visa brake are on the IRC’s Emergency Watchlist, meaning they are amongst the 20 most fragile and conflict-affected places on Earth.

The impact is particularly severe for women and girls in Afghanistan, where they have been banned from receiving education over the age of 12, leaving around 1.5m girls barred from secondary education alone. For many Afghan women, access to education abroad has become one of the last remaining routes to learning and independence. One Afghan IRC colleague who arrived in the UK on a scholarship told us the decision feels equivalent to when the Taliban banned women from education and work: “It takes away access to education and opportunity, with very similar consequences for Afghan youth, especially women.”

These visas are often not about permanent migration but gaining qualifications and experience that can help rebuild their countries. An Afghan client, who arrived as a student, told us that this will have a serious impact on the dreams of talented young Afghans: “For many, these opportunities are not just about studying or working abroad. They represent hope, stability and a future built through hard work.”

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Cameroon is another case in point. For students from English-speaking regions, deeply affected by ongoing violence, access to education in the UK is needed for training lawyers to work within English common law, and for doctors who can return to support overstretched health services.

For those who do stay in the UK, many have worked tirelessly to secure opportunities and are now making extraordinary contributions to workplaces, universities and communities.

These concerns are shared in Parliament. Baroness Royall, former Principal of Somerville College, Oxford, expressed dismay that “brilliant students, following rigorous selection procedures and on fully funded scholarships, have had their hopes, dreams and futures shattered”.

Lord Smith, Chancellor of Cambridge University, echoes this, noting that “overseas students bring life and cultural difference to our universities, and we are infinitely the richer for it”.

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We have seen the damaging consequences of nationality-based restrictions before. In the US, travel bans reinforced harmful stereotypes and fueled hostility. Policies that imply certain nationalities are more likely to ‘abuse’ the system risk deepening division, without fixing the challenges the asylum system faces.

Student and skilled worker visas should be assessed on individual merit. Blanket restrictions based on nationality are unfair, risk undermining British values and set a dangerous precedent.

 

Flora Alexander is Executive Director of International Rescue Committee UK

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