Reform UK have had a good week. That shouldn’t bother the Tories – just learn lessons as to why

It might astonish the uber-Reform campaigners that have camped out for the last two years in our comments section, but I’m going to say: by any measure Reform UK have had a good week.

Am I about to switch teams? No not at all but I’ve never underestimated them, I talk to them, and so far, my prediction that 2026 would be the year both they and the Tories fight it out until both realise, they aren’t going to destroy the other, is proving true.

I mean it’s also true that when the Conservatives hold this truly awful Labour government to account – the scalps of Mandelson, Rayner, McSweeney, and forcing countless Labour U-turns – Reform would rather die than give them any credit, and immediately gun for the Conservatives but the Government’s U-turn on local elections would not have been possible without Reform pressure.

Suella Braverman opined it was “only possible” because of Reform, somewhat reinforcing my point above, which isn’t true since the Conservatives were officially against delays too, as were the Lib Dems. 5 councils run by Tories opted to request a delay, which has been leapt on as overall party complicity. That is bogus, however Reform should get credit for this one, and unlike them, I’m comfortable admitting it.

In hindsight it was a mistake for the Tories not to insist those councils didn’t follow the party line, but I understand why, and actually the issue back then now lies in Reform. When the delays were first contemplated, the Conservative expectation was May 2026 local elections could be as brutal for them as 2025’s had been. They’ll still be difficult.

Since nearly everyone in the parliamentary party was aware that whilst still a Tory, Robert Jenrick would have made a move for the leadership in those circumstances and at that point, I can see why there was a political argument to let 5 councils opt out. Reduce the number of losses. But it was a mistake.

After all, the utter nonsense that Labour made the decision to do with the law, and local government restructuring rather than political necessity has now been exposed, and in keeping with their entire modus operandi since in Government: they’ve taken all the pain of trying to stop something, for ulterior motives, and ended up in a worse position than where they started.

Labour are cooked. I think we can say that without any party badge on. Doubly cooked with Starmer at the top, but with or without him they are heading further and further left, and there are no solutions to Britain’s problems there.

Reform of course want everyone to believe the Conservatives are heading left too, or rather their new line; that Kemi Badenoch may be on the ‘right’ but a cabal of secret Lib Dem leftists ‘won’t let her do anything she says’. This too is phooey, but I see why they need to say it.

So why do I think Reform had a good week, apart from the legal challenge to the local election delays?

First, they’ve used parliamentary recess well. Their Communications team, who are streets ahead of Labour’s – which of course has the logistical support of a huge Whitehall machine, and is still ineffective – saw a clear space in the news window and owned it. Having done so they then reinforced it.

Yesterday’s press conference was instructive. Not entirely in the way Reform would like it to be, but there are lessons to learn and things to accept.

So we know now who four of his shadow cabinet – that aren’t really the shadow cabinet -are.

Having long ago admitted he needed Whitehall experience he’s had to opt for former Tories to fill his key positions. The egregious Zia Yusuf started his role as home affairs spokesman saying one in twenty five people currently in the UK came here in the last five years.

It wouldn’t be hard to identify someone closely involved in that issue at the time, as she was sat not far from him. Interestingly for those Reformer’s concerned about their insurgency being diluted by ex-Tories, Suella, who won our members survey for ‘back bencher of the year 2025’ got some of the biggest cheers of the event.

I think we can safely now surmise what the price for Rob Jenrick’s defection was, and sure enough he is taking the Treasury role, that both Tice and Yusuf – both themselves former Tories – wanted. Tice postively begged for support to be a Tory London mayoral candidate, and according to Channel 4, Farage had a moment where a Tory seat was discussed. He says offered, they say requested.

I was keen to hear what Rob had to say but at a number of points, in this ‘press conference to prove he’s not a one man band’, Farage answered for them all. Farage has always been a one man band. It’s why for some what he’s so far achieved is impressive. This new line up is, as Shadow Housing and Local Government Secretary James Cleverly put it:

“Still a one man band, but now with backing singers”.

Now before Conservatives get comfortable, and that’s the last thing they should be with regards to Reform, there is a risk here – one the Tories need to avoid. Our columnist Peter Franklin wrote about it last week.

If the Tory brand is still very tarnished in the public’s eyes, they are much more positive towards Kemi Badenoch. Despite the fact that she majors on her strong team, and how they all work as a team, she is the one, rightly, in the spotlight. She cannot renew for 2030 on her own, but increasingly she is the focus.

Does that matter? Well, read Peter’s piece, but it is a trickier line to tread when painting Farage as a one man band.

What some may have missed was when Farage was asked a question. Not the one he could easily have answered but decided rather to patronisingly dismiss from the FT – a tactic he’s used particulalry with female reporters since 2024 and one wonder looks that great outside Reform.  No, this was when he was asked how he’d avoid any ‘psychodrama’ in his party now he had ambitious former Tories on board.

He said because ‘I won’t put up with it, simple as that’. That of course is fair enough from a leader, any leader, but he then went on to say that if there were any signs of disloyalty those who showed it ‘won’t be around for very long’.

That’s the quiet bit out loud.

No leader should put up with outright disloyalty, and it’s why Badenoch sacked Jenrick in the first place. She didn’t ‘put up with it’. But disloyalty is the biggest crime in Farage’s book. He’s said it publicly and to my face. The problem is he has a track record of seeing any political disagreement on policy as personal disloyalty, and there’s many a one-time ally that has been utterly ostracised for such a ‘crime’.

James Orr and Danny Kruger are in charge of Reform’s policy. Both very bright, and not to be underestimated, but they aren’t in charge of policy, ultimately. The old jibe within UKIP still stands: “What Nigel wants, Nigel gets”

In hinting at a new policy in the welfare arena, Farage said what he wanted to do, and added it was ‘up to Rob’ how that is achieved. That’s the very system of policy command Jenrick found so intolerable – and having been there I have some sympathy – that came from Rishi Sunak’s number ten operation.

That four people have been given a role in Reform is a step forward for them, it still leaves another sixteen to seventeen Cabinet Roles to fill, before you get to ministerial appointmentsd but they made the most of the recess quiet, to make a splash, and that is worth thinking about for the Tory’s Comms team.

Reform will be pleased with the way this week has gone, even if lingering questions are still being asked about their policy offer. Questions rightly come at all the parties about policy platforms because none of them have yet offered something comprehensive that meaningfully tackles the deep rooted problems the country faces.

The Conservatives, as I said on Sunday, should not be intimidated or cowed by a good week for Reform, just look at the lessons to be drawn, and either exploit the weaknesses – because they certainly exist – or better just keep doing what they have been doing: constantly reminding people they are very far from dead, and very much still in the game.

Of course for the right, It would be so much better if both parties could concentrate fire entirely on the Government.