Top Pollster Burnham Should Seek Election To Beat Farage

Andy Burnham should call a general election by early next year “at the latest” so Labour can defeat Nigel Farage and all-but kill off the Tories, according to a Theresa May’s former pollster.

James Johnson of JL Partners said the prime minister will never have a better opportunity to capitalise on the deep splits on the right of British politics.

He said even Lib Dem and Green “would rally around” Burnham if it was a straight fight for No.10 between him and Farage, which could hand Labour a Commons majority of more than 90 seats.

Writing in The Times, Johnson, who was former Tory PM May’s senior opinion research and strategy adviser, said: “The prime minister has ruled out calling an ‘early election’.

“But I believe a combination of factors mean Andy Burnham should go for a general election this year or, at the latest, early next.”

He said Labour “could quite easily win a sizeable majority” on just 30% of the vote, which would be even less than the 34% the party received at the last general election.

“It is the left uniting behind Burnham that would get him there,” he said. “He has far higher approval ratings than Starmer did among Green and Liberal Democrat voters.

“And there is one man wavering voters on the left fear more than any Tory: Farage.”

Johnson added: “A recent YouGov poll found that while Burnham has a 12-point advantage over Badenoch for who would make the best PM, Burnham is seen as a better PM than Farage by a 26-point margin.

“Among Green voters, Burnham has a 70-point advantage, among Liberal Democrats a 72-point advantage. They would rally around Burnham come a contest for the future of the country.”

Amid speculation that Farage may stand down as Reform leader before 2029, the latest point at which an election must be held, Johnson said Burnham should go to the country now.

He said: “Farage remains Reform’s best asset and if Farage goes, Reform goes with him.

“Rather than fight a resurgent Badenoch with a more united right in such a situation in 2029, Burnham would do better to use his Goldilocks moment.

“Farage is not too strong nor too weak — he is strong enough for Burnham to engineer a two-horse race but can be beaten.”

The pollster said that in such a scenario, Reform would win more than 100 seats – way up on the five MPs they returned in 2024 – but the Tories would slump from 121 seats to fewer than 100.

“Given the circumstances, it would also be a stonking result for Labour and could lead to a majority of more than 90 seats,” he said.

“If he throws the dice nationally, there are good odds he will win a large majority of his own, escape the manifesto trap he faces and scatter his opponents.

“Given the split on the right, he faces a unique set of circumstances. He would have not only his best shot at power but could relegate the Conservatives to a state of near-extinction.

“For a man built on Labour traditions, is there any stronger temptation than that?”

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