» 16 storylines to watch in the Sweet 16: Cooper Flagg, Tom Izzo, John Calipari and more

Heavyweight showdowns, top-tier prospects, longtime coaches trying to get one more Final Four trip added to their résumé, while others are seeking their first-ever berth onto college basketball’s biggest stage. The 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 field is stacked, but there is one thing missing: Cinderella. 

This marks the first time since the NCAA Tournament moved to a 64-team format in 1985 that there will not be a team outside the high-major conferences in the Sweet 16, per FOX Sports Research. In fact, only four conferences – the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC – are represented in college basketball’s second weekend, and it’s the first time since 2007 that there isn’t a single team seeded 11th or lower at this point in the Big Dance. Is it a sign that Cinderellas will fade away in the NIL era? 

Look, Colorado State was a missed shot away from beating Maryland in a thriller. We still saw McNeese and Drake pull off first-round upsets, and even a program like High Point came close to upsetting Purdue. You can say that the lack of higher seeds in this year’s Sweet 16 is concerning, but it’s preposterous to say Cinderellas are dead.

We saw 15 high-major programs reach the Sweet 16 in 2015 and 2016, with the only non-high major operating like one being Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs. Fans were not complaining after Duke held off Wisconsin, 68-63, in the 2015 title game, or when Kris Jenkins hit one of the greatest shots in college basketball history to lead Villanova over North Carolina in an unforgettable title tilt a year later. 

When powerhouse programs are mostly making up the second weekend, you’re getting the best teams in the sport all season long and, odds are, better games rather than a Cinderella running out of gas and getting blown out. 

All that being said, here are 16 storylines to watch in this year’s Sweet 16:

1. Will Cooper Flagg and Duke reach destiny?

This is a golden opportunity for Jon Scheyer to reach his first Final Four as the heir to Mike Krzyzewski and for the Blue Devils to win it all. Flagg had a ho-hum 18 points, nine rebounds and six assists in Sunday’s blowout win over Baylor, while Tyrese Proctor made a statement, delivering 25 points on 9-of-10 shooting from the floor. The junior from Australia has buried 19 triples in his last three games while shooting 63%. If he’s shooting like that, when coupled with Duke’s top-four defense, this team can’t be stopped. It’s a legacy week for Flagg, Scheyer and the Blue Devils.

2. A rematch of Duke vs. Arizona awaits, with one final meeting for the Blue Devils with Caleb Love.

The North Carolina transfer went for 28 points on 11-of-20 shooting from the floor in the 2022 Final Four against Duke, charging the Tar Heels past Mike Krzyzewski in his final game, and making Love a legend in Chapel Hill. He put on another master class Sunday night, leading Arizona to a come-from-behind 87-83 win over Oregon with 29 points, nine rebounds and four assists. Duke and Arizona met in November, with the Blue Devils slowing down the Wildcats‘ offense and holding them to 55 points in a 14-point win. Love had a nightmare of a night, shooting 3-of-13 from the floor as part of a 4-5 start to the year. Revenge will be on his mind, but Duke has been an absolute wagon with its first two tournament wins coming by a combined 67 points. 

3. Derik Queen and the Crab Five.

Maryland’s standout freshman supplied the moment of the NCAA Tournament thus far with his buzzer-beater against Colorado State on Sunday, 72-71. The Terps were down 24-12 just 10 minutes into the game and 64-59 with five minutes on the clock before a mammoth 5-0 spurt driven by Ja’Kobi Gillespie. After a go-ahead triple by Colorado State’s Jalen Lake, Queen asked Kevin Willard for the ball and went to work. It’s Willard’s first Sweet 16 in his 18-year coaching career and the first for Maryland since 2016. The Crab Five has brought the program back. 

4. John Calipari is vindicated and has advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in his first year at the helm of Arkansas. 

It’s all that much sweeter for Coach Cal because he was able to advance to the Sweet 16 by taking down his rival, Rick Pitino, and St. John’s. The Hogs shot 43% and scored 46 points in the paint, but their defense shined through more than anything in the 75-66 win over the Red Storm. Arkansas held RJ Luis to 3-of-17 shooting from the floor and got him off the floor in frustration for the final five minutes while also fouling out Kadary Richmond. Calipari’s team played with an underdog mentality and drove to the rim at will by spacing the Johnnies’ defense out.

5. Kentucky is still dancing in Year 1 of the Mark Pope era.

Last summer, when I asked Kentucky assistant Mark Fox who could be the alpha for this team in crunch time, his first answer was BYU transfer Jaxson Robinson, who followed Pope from Provo to Lexington. When it was announced that he was done for the season, it got me thinking back to that and how many teams could be doomed losing a figure like that. Just ask Iowa State. The Cyclones didn’t make the second weekend of the Big Dance without Keshon Gilbert. But the Cats got 23 from Koby Brea, along with a combined 29 from Otega Oweh and Lamont Butler, while forcing 14 turnovers in an 84-75 win over Illinois. Up next? A date with Tennessee on Thursday.

6. Tom Izzo is in his 16th Sweet 16.

Izzo is heading to Atlanta with his Michigan State team for a Friday night battle with 6-seed Ole Miss (7:09 p.m. ET, CBS). The Spartans used their defense and physicality to grind out a 71-63 win over New Mexico on Sunday behind Jaden Akins delivering 16 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the floor. In his 30th season, I have Izzo and the Spartans reaching the Final Four. His team is relentless defensively, they are deep, and when Jase Richardson gets cooking, forget about it. He was 1-for-10 against New Mexico in a win. I expect a response against the Rebels. 

7. Get ready for an electric offensive display on Thursday night in Newark when Alabama meets BYU.

These two teams are both in the top-13 in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency, with Mark Sears and the Crimson Tide pursuing a repeat Final Four trip, while Richie Saunders and the Cougars having won 11 of 12. BYU averages 81 points per game, while Alabama posts 91, but who can control the pace of the game? The Tide are No. 1 in America in tempo, while BYU ranks 178th. I’m fascinated to watch lottery prospect Egor Demin run Kevin Young’s offense. 

8. Houston is playing a road game at Purdue in the NCAA Tournament. 

The No. 1-seeded Cougars take on the Boilermakers at the home of the Indianapolis Colts, Lucas Oil Stadium, this weekend. While the setup won’t be for the entire football stadium to accommodate, it’s still fascinating that Houston has to do this. How will Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and the Purdue guards function with the high-rate ball pressure from LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp & Co.? I like Houston to win this game because I think the Cougars’ defense will be too much, but if anybody can pull it off, it’s Matt Painter. 

9. Can Tennessee get redemption?

The Vols were swept in the regular season by Kentucky. In the last meeting, a 74-65 Kentucky win on Feb. 11, Chaz Lanier shot 3-for-13 from the floor and 0-for-7 from downtown. The North Florida transfer is shooting 8-for-27 in two games this season against Kentucky. He has to turn it on in the third meeting. 

10. It was a ho-hum weekend for No. 1 overall seed Auburn.

The Tigers did get pushed some by a gutsy Creighton team on Saturday night but still pulled away for an 82-70 win. The spark for Bruce Pearl’s team all season has been Tahaad Pettiford, who scored 23 points on 7-of-14 shooting from the floor. Ryan Kalkbrenner held Johni Broome to 4-of-13 from the floor, but Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones and Pettiford were fantastic.

11. How about the Michigan Wolverines!

In Year 1 of the Dusty May era, Michigan has 13 wins by four points or less. The Wolverines use a two-man duo in the post and rank 13th in the country in KenPom defensive efficiency. Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf are one of the best tag teams in college hoops, but meeting Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell in the paint should be theater. May’s team must take care of the ball in this matchup. They only gave it away nine times in a 91-79 win over Texas A&M on Saturday while commanding the glass, 48-39. For May to get Michigan from the laughingstock of the Big Ten to the second weekend is remarkable. 

12. Look out for Texas Tech.

My Final Four was Michigan State, Florida, Duke and Houston. If I could change only one selection, it would be swapping the Gators out for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are always solid defensively under Grant McCasland, but it’s the way this team has found ways to cause problems for opposing defenses in the scoring column that intrigues me a lot. JT Toppin and Darrion Williams are versatile wings who average a combined 33 points and 15 rebounds per game. When you add in lead guard Elijah Hawkins, who is one of the best distributors in the country, you have a monster of an offense out of Lubbock. 

13. For the first time since 2001 and only the second time in school history, the Ole Miss Rebels are marching on to the Sweet 16.

In his second year on the job, Chris Beard has built a roster that truly plays complimentary basketball, ranking in the top 25 in both offense and defense in KenPom. The Rebels didn’t just beat Iowa State in the round of 32 — they blew the doors off the Cyclones, 91-78. Sean Pedulla went for 20 points and eight assists, while versatile 6-8 forward Jaemyn Brakefield went off for 19 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the floor and 2-of-2 from downtown in a game-changing performance off the bench. Ole Miss’ top-15 transfer class has panned out well this year. The Rebels can give Michigan State problems if they box out, an area of inconsistency this year. 

14. Florida, my pick to win it all, was far from convincing in a second-round win over UConn.

The Gators looked tight and tentative at times, something you can sometimes get from a 1-seed in uncharted waters. For 39-year-old Todd Golden, who was meeting the coach of the reigning back-to-back national champion UConn Huskies, you could feel the pressure. But Walter Clayton Jr. willed the Gators and would not let them be denied, going for 23 points and shooting 5-for-8 from 3, while Alijah Martin supplied 18 points. The Gators need to get their interior players going earlier on Thursday, but it will be hard against Queen and Julian Reese. 

15. Can Arkansas keep the magical run going?

I think it’s possible, but I like Texas Tech to find a way because the Red Raiders will make it much harder with their length and athleticism for the Hogs to get dribble penetration than St. John’s did. But don’t underestimate the advantage of having guard-style players between Billy Richmond III and Karter Knox, who had a combined 31 points and 15 rebounds in their biggest moment thus far. It’s been a while since we’ve seen freshmen play such a major role for a Calipari-coached team. You’d have to go back to 2019, when Kentucky produced a second-weekend run with Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson. The presence of Johnell Davis, as well as big man Jonas Aidoo, are paramount for Arkansas to pull it off. 

16. So many heavyweights meeting in the Sweet 16 could make for epic games down the stretch.

The star power on display in this year’s Sweet 16 inevitably boosts TV ratings and shows the very best the sport has had to offer for the entire year. I understand why people root for Cinderellas, and I do think they will be back, but to say the sport is heading in a bad direction seems like a bit of an overreaction. If I’m an NBA scout, this is a dream weekend ahead, especially in Newark. You’ve got Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach highlighting Duke, Demin repping BYU, and Carter Bryant in Arizona colors gearing up for the Sweet 16. Queen is a top-10 NBA prospect in the West Region, Toppin leads the Red Raiders of Texas Tech, Richardson is a budding superstar for the Spartans, and Danny Wolf and Johni Broome could both see their stock rise. Draft season is revving up, and the Big Dance forges on.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

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