» 2025 Sweet 16 betting report: ‘Outside of Arkansas, we need Duke out of there’

March Madness odds have only one double-digit seed among the Sweet 16. 

But that one team is proving popular to pull off at least one more upset and reach the Elite Eight.

“There’s a big ticket count on John Calipari and Arkansas. The public is buying into the SEC again,” said Rich Zanco, Caesars Sports’ head of college basketball trading.

Zanco and sharp college basketball bettor Paul Stone serve up their insights on March Madness Sweet 16 odds, heading into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

High on the Hogs

In Round 1, No. 10 seed Arkansas was a 5.5-point underdog to No. 7 seed Kansas. The Razorbacks took down the traditional blue blood 79-72.

Then came one of the shockers so far in March Madness. Facing No. 2 seed and legit title contender St. John’s, Arkansas notched a 75-66 upset as a 7-point underdog.

The betting public masses love a good Cinderella story in the NCAA Tournament. And Arkansas is now that story, heading into a Thursday night clash with No. 3 seed Texas Tech.

No surprise, the Hogs are ‘dogs once again, getting 5.5 points. But public bettors don’t want the points, at least not yet. They want another outright upset. So they’re playing Arkansas moneyline +200, which means a $100 bet profits $200 (total payout $300) if the Razorbacks win.

“It’s a 6/1 ticket count for Arkansas on the moneyline. Calipari already has a big win over Bill Self and a big win over Rick Pitino,” Zanco said Wednesday afternoon. “We’re gonna probably need the favorite.”

Arkansas isn’t just a liability to win the game. There’s also significant — and growing — championship futures liability. Before March Madness began, a Caesars customer put a $1,000 bet on Arkansas +50000 (500/1) to win the national championship.

That bet alone would profit $500,000. And there are plenty more long-shot tickets on the Razorbacks, which can still be had for +15000 (150/1), if you’re so inclined.

So the point spread is not among Zanco’s concerns for this 10:09 p.m. ET tip on Thursday.

“We’ll take Texas Tech just winning the game. That would be ideal,” he said.

March Madness Sharp Side 

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone noted that No. 6 seed Ole Miss lived by the 3-pointer to upset Iowa State 91-78 and reach the Sweet 16. The Rebels, 5.5-point underdogs, went 11-for-19 from long distance.

Ole Miss improved to 24-11 straight up (SU)/18-16-1 against the spread (ATS). The Rebels earned a Friday night date with No. 2 seed Michigan State (29-6 SU/24-10-1 ATS), in a 7:09 p.m. ET tipoff.

The Spartans are 3.5-point favorites, and Stone doesn’t anticipate more Rebels success from the 3-point line.

“Ole Miss was 19 of 39 on 3-pointers in its opening two games in the NCAA Tournament,” Stone said, adding in the Rebels’ first-round win over North Carolina. “Michigan State, however, defends the 3-point line as well as anybody in the country. In fact, the Spartans lead the nation in opponent 3-point percentage at just 27.8%. So the Rebels have their work cut out for them.”

Stone also noted Michigan State is on a stout 10-1 SU and ATS run.

“I think Michigan State has a good chance to emerge out of the South Region and earn a trip to San Antonio,” Stone said. “I think the Spartans get the win and cover Friday against the Rebels.”

Dominant Duke

No. 1 seed Duke looks every bit the part of a national championship favorite. The Blue Devils easily won and covered in Rounds 1 and 2, vs. No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s and No. 9 seed Baylor, respectively.

But Caesars Sports certainly wouldn’t mind if Arizona, a 9-point underdog, found a formula to stop Cooper Flagg & Co.

“Outside of Arkansas, we need Duke out of there,” Zanco said, before addressing action on this 9:39 p.m. ET Thursday tip. “We did take a pretty sharp bet on the ‘dog +9.5. Hopefully, the betting public will push this line up to Duke -10/-10.5.

“We are seeing good action, and we are gonna need Arizona. And it’s a big need, like all the Duke games.”

SEC Showdown

Zanco said that, for the most part, Caesars Sports is still waiting for bettors to show interest in Friday’s four games on the Sweet 16 odds board.

“I’m actually surprised that there’s not much action on the Friday slate. It’s very tepid right now,” Zanco said. “The only game really getting action is Kentucky–Tennessee.”

And there’s been a lot of line movement, too. The No. 2 seed Vols opened as 5.5-point favorites and got as low as -3.5 on Monday. That number quickly rebounded to Tennessee -4/-4.5.

“We took a substantial six-digit bet over the counter on Tennessee, laying the 4 points,” Zanco said. “Tennessee has looked impressive. But people kind of cringe at Rick Barnes’ name over the past few years.”

Indeed, since 2010, Barnes’ teams are just 6-18 ATS in NCAA Tournament play. But Zanco anticipates enough Vols support that Caesars will be rooting for the third-seeded Wildcats.

“There are some other big bets on Tennessee, as well. We’re probably gonna need the ‘dog,” he said.

That could prove a good need. Kentucky went 2-0 SU and ATS against Tennessee in the regular season. Then again, there’s that cliché about how hard it is to beat a team three times in a season. We’ll see how that holds up Friday night.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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