The journey is almost here as 48 nations, 104 games, and four teams make their first appearance ever at the World Cup. It’s plenty to keep up with, but someone has to wade through it all in order to attempt to pick a winner. Hello there, I’m someone, and while this exercise has given me a slight disdain for third-placed teams getting through after projecting all of their placements, it’s also a good one to have on paper to see how correct or wrong I am about the fate of this tournament.

It has been 24 years since the United States have won a knockout game at the World Cup, and with this tournament happening on home soil, they’ll have a chance to end that drought with a newly minted round of 32. It’s funny that they could win a knockout stage match and still get eliminated at the same stage as 2022, but it’s about the journey, right?

But that’s enough meandering; you came for World Cup picks and World Cup picks you shall get:

Group A predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Mexico 2, South Africa 1
South Korea 1, Czechia 0

Matchday 2 picks
South Africa 1, Czechia 1
Mexico 1, South Korea 1

Matchday 3 picks
Mexico 1, Czechia 0
South Korea 2, South Africa 1

Erm, so we’re off to quite a start here as we’re going to tiebreakers to determine the winner of the first group of this exercise. You guessed it: Mexico win the group on fair play points of all things, because they matched South Korea’s results kick for kick going through the group. The host advantage is enough to propel El Tri through such a balanced group, and while Czechia are a strong side defensively, Patrik Schick alone won’t be enough to push them through. Bafana Bafana are improving rapidly, but despite having the best nickname of any of the teams in Group A, soccer-wise, they lag behind the others. 

Group B predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Canada 1, Bosnia 1
Switzerland 3, Qatar 0

Matchday 2 picks
Switzerland 1, Bosnia 0
Canada 2, Qatar 0

Matchday 3 picks
Switzerland 2, Canada 0
Qatar 1, Bosnia 1

Ravaged by injuries, Canada will be up against it as they stumble in their opening game while facing off with Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the Canucks will recover, facing a familiar foe in Qatar. Due to the AFC nation being invited to Concacaf Gold Cup play, it’s essentially as if Canada drew a team from their own federation, which is a boost to their chances. Being such an efficient team, no one will give Switzerland major trouble from this group, but if anyone slips up, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be ready to push and climb out.

Group C predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Brazil 2, Morocco 1
Scotland 2, Haiti 1

Matchday 2 picks
Morocco 2, Scotland 0
Brazil 3, Haiti 1

Matchday 3 picks
Brazil 3, Scotland 1
Morocco 2, Haiti 0

This is a closer group than it may seem, with a Brazil team looking to ride the vibes of Carlo Ancelotti as manager despite having a flawed squad, but the winner of their opening match with Morocco will be well placed to win the entire group. I have Brazil narrowly edging the Atlas Lions, but after them is where things get interesting. Haiti are a better side than you may expect, but Scott McTominay with Scotland is different gravy. He’ll do enough to ensure that Scotland have a chance at advancing, but goal difference may not be in their favor when the dust settles.

Group D predictions

Matchday 1 picks
United States 2, Paraguay 1
Turkiye 3, Australia 1

Matchday 2 picks
United States 2, Australia 0
Paraguay 1, Turkiye 1

Matchday 3 picks
United States 4, Turkiye 3
Paraguay 2, Australia 1

Yet another balanced group, the United States will play with pressure, but they also will have the benefit of familiarity with their opponents while also being able to limit travel due to their placement in Orange County, Calif. With Chris Richards back in training and entering the World Cup with Tyler Adams healthy, the USMNT will be able to survive an opening-day slug fest in order to gain control of the group. With Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, and Can Uzan, Turkiye boast some of the best young talent in the world, but with a suspect defense, they’re going to concede some goals, leading to a tight battle with Paraguay for second in the group.

Group E predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Germany 4, Curacao 0
Ivory Coast 0, Ecuador 0

Matchday 2 picks
Germany 2, Ivory Coast 1
Ecuador 2, Curacao 0

Matchday 3 picks
Ivory Coast 4, Curacao 1
Germany 1, Ecuador 0

With an opening day of soccer that puts on full display the difference in style of these groups, Kai Havertz and Germany will provide Curacao with an ample welcome to the big stage before defensive soccer takes center stage when Ecuador spring into action. While I don’t know where the goals will come from for La Tri, I only have them conceding one goal in group stage play. The final day of action is one that could be quite fun as Ivory Coast will need to win and hope that Ecuador lose, which will then lead to the group coming down to goal difference. With Yan Diomande and Amad Diallo, I’ll take Ivory Coast to come out on top via that method.

Group F predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Netherlands 2, Japan 2
Sweden 2, Tunisia 0

Matchday 2 picks
Netherlands 2, Sweden 1
Tunisia 1, Japan 1

Matchday 3 picks
Japan 2, Sweden 0
Netherlands 1, Tunisia 0

When a nation that didn’t win a single match in World Cup qualifying makes it to the tournament, you know that you have a quirky group, and tossing the Netherlands in only adds to it. It’s quite close between them and Japan, but not having Kaoru Mitoma at the World Cup is a blow to the Samurai Blue attack from the side that we’re used to at this level. If Sweden can score some goals via Viktor Gyokeres, things could get interesting.

Group G predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Belgium 3, Egypt 1
Iran 2, New Zealand 0

Matchday 2 picks
Belgium 2, Iran 0
Egypt 2, New Zealand 0

Matchday 3 picks
Egypt 2, Iran 2
Belgium 4, New Zealand 1

It’s not a true World Cup until Belgium seem like a side set to win the tournament right out of the group stage, and this is a perfect group for it. Egypt have a few stars like Mohamed Salah, but it’s a squad with holes. Iran have off-the-pitch noise and needs to come from Mexico for games, and New Zealand may have the star of the tournament Tim Payne, but when it comes to making things happen on the pitch, depth is a huge concern. Matchday 3 will come down to a battle between Egypt and Iran to determine second and third place, and that’ll turn out to be a coin flip.

Group H predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Spain 3, Cabo Verde 1
Uruguay 2, Saudi Arabia 0

Matchday 2 picks
Spain 2, Saudi Arabia 1
Uruguay 3, Cabo Verde 1

Matchday 3 picks
Cabo Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 2
Spain 2, Uruguay 1

This group requires some projecting. We have no clue how much Lamine Yamal will actually feature for Spain during the group stage, and that could temper their scoring. On the bright side, Spain have one of the easiest groups to get out of, and playing Uruguay on the final day of group stage play, it’s tough to see them losing that match unless Yamal’s injury is worse than anyone is letting on, which is possible. Cabo Verde are in the World Cup for the first time, and it’ll be a party in Atlanta when they score their first goal in the tournament, but that’s going to be about it. Saudi Arabia could cause some trouble, but with the strength of the teams ahead of them, trouble is the best they can do. 

Group I predictions

Matchday 1 picks
France 1, Senegal 1
Norway 3, Iraq 0

Matchday 2 picks
France 4, Iraq 1
Senegal 2, Norway 1

Matchday 3 picks
France 3, Norway 1
Senegal 1, Iraq 0

Senegal are a force to be reckoned with, and they’ll show why, limiting France’s chances in the opener. Sadio Mane still has some magic in his feet, and while Michael Olise is announcing his own stardom to the world, he’ll need to wait to face Iraq before his World Cup party begins. It’s great theater, but also a shame that Erling Haaland’s first World Cup will see him needing to navigate such a tough group but they’ll be in enough games that they may be able to nick getting through as a third-placed team set to cause nightmares in the round of 32. Third-placed teams advancing is still something to get used to, but that’s the strange new world that we live in.

Group J predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Argentina 1, Algeria 0
Austria 3, Jordan 1

Matchday 2 picks
Argentina 2, Austria 1
Jordan 0, Algeria 1

Matchday 3 picks
Algeria 1, Austria 0
Argentina 3, Jordan 0

Argentina know who they are and how they want to play their soccer, which is always a benefit in tournaments like this. Oh, and Lionel Messi continues to age like fine wine while Lionel Scaloni continues to bridge the gap to the next generation of Argentine soccer. They’re the clear class of the group and won’t face much of a challenge while Algeria and Austria duke it out for second.

Group K predictions

Matchday 1 picks
Portugal 2, DR Congo 0
Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 2

Matchday 2 picks
Portugal 3, Uzbekistan 1
Colombia 2, DR Congo 1

Matchday 3 picks
Colombia 1, Portugal 1
DR Congo 3, Uzbekistan 0

World Cup James Rodriguez is here, and it’s perfect. Colombia are a flawed team, and they have a Luis Suarez who doesn’t bite people in the side, which should lead to some fun soccer. Oh, and Luis Diaz? Absolute superstar. Of course, Portugal are a team with the potential to win the entire tournament, but they’ve yet to put everything together all at once. Bruno Fernandes is coming into the World Cup after winning the Premier League Player of the Year Award, and he’ll be ready to drop balls into channels for the squad as they score just enough goals to advance as group winners.

Group L predictions

Matchday 1 picks
England 1, Croatia 0
Ghana 2, Panama 1

Matchday 2 picks
England 3, Ghana 1
Panama 1, Croatia 1

Matchday 3 picks
England 3, Panama 0
Croatia 2, Ghana 1

England can be a bore to watch at times, but they sure are effective at playing soccer, especially as Harry Kane chases an elusive Ballon d’Or. Thomas Tuchel’s leadership will help navigate a group that could be tricky, containing Croatia, but as Luka Modric is now 40, their window as dark horses has very much closed. With England playing Croatia on the first day, some of the drama is taken out of the sails of the group as everything settles out well, even with Panama playing Croatia quite closely.

The best third-placed teams

Okay, this is a new one. Needing to predict third-placed finishers is a serious challenge, and it also brings the icky feeling of advancing teams on only three points with a negative goal difference. But alas, that’s the hand that has been dealt in this World Cup, and it will set up some intriguing round of 32 matchups as Ecuador and Norway are the third-placed sides that no one will want to draw.

Final days of group stage play that would generally be rife for rotation has meaningful games straight through. The third-placed teams who come out of all of this won’t be created equal, but who said seeing in soccer was particularly fair? 

The eight teams moving on are Ecuador, Sweden, Iran, Paraguay, Norway, Austria, DR Congo, and Ghana.

Round of 32 picks

Germany 2, Paraguay 1
France 3, Sweden 1
South Korea 1, Canada 0 (ET)
Morocco 1, Netherlands 0
Brazil 2, Japan 1
Senegal 1, Ivory Coast 0
Ecuador 1, Mexico 0
England 2, DR Congo 0
Colombia 2, Croatia 1 (ET)
Spain 2, Algeria 1
United States 2, Norway 1
Belgium 3, Austria 0
Argentina 2, Uruguay 1
Turkiye 2, Egypt 2 (Turkiye advance on PKs)
Switzerland 2, Iran 0
Portugal 2, Ghana 1

The three host nations all advance and are unfortunately greeted with tough opponents in the round of 32. United States, meet destroyer of balls, Erling Haaland. Mexico, have fun shooting at the brick wall that is Ecuador. Not exactly what anyone had in mind when selecting what were supposed to be easy paths for the host nations.  

While it’s a situation where I’d hope my predictions are wrong, it will be nice to see the USMNT tested and defeat a nation at the caliber of Norway, whose defense can be exploited. Belgium continue to look good in vain, while Ecuador are able to keep their cool under pressure to advance in a hostile environment. The knockouts are also where the wheels begin to come off for Brazil; they’re able to make it by Japan, but how much longer can they keep a tightrope act going?

There shouldn’t be many lopsided results at this stage, but the ones that do happen show that eight third-placed teams advancing is about four too many. In an expanded tournament, what are you going to do, though?

Round of 16 picks

France 2, Germany 1
Morocco 1, South Korea 0
Senegal 2, Brazil 1
England 2, Ecuador 1 (ET)
Spain 2, Colombia 1
Belgium 3, United States 1
Argentina 2, Turkiye 1
Portugal 2, Switzerland 1

Here we are, the proper knockouts, where we’re done with that fake knockout round there. The USMNT are still here, and they’re met by another familiar foe, one who may give them nightmares both due to jersey clashes and conceding five goals on the pitch in a recent friendly. They don’t need either of those things to happen at the hands of the Red Devils but while this match will bring improvement for the squad, the end result will bring the same.

England struggle a bit trying to break down Ecuador, but the big matches to watch are Germany versus France and Brazil versus Senegal. Brazil’s struggles catch up to them, and France and Germany turns into absolute cinema. We’re building what’s shaping up to be a stacked field.

Quarterfinal picks

France 2, Morocco 0
Spain 2, Belgium 1
England 1, Senegal 0
Portugal 2, Argentina 1 (ET)

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo get one last ride, and we get plenty of extra time to see what could be the last meeting of two of the greatest players to ever step on a soccer pitch. It will be Ronaldo who keeps his hopes of winning a World Cup title alive but elsewhere, the next generation is making their mark too.

Michael Olise and Kylian Mbappe push France past Morocco while Yamal continues to show that he’s the most important cog to Spain as in the knockouts, they’ll lean on him to make the magic happen. Senegal’s run also comes to an end after a proper battle of the heavyweights and more heroics for Harry Kane.

Semifinal picks

Spain 2, France 1
England 2, Portugal 1

Spain’s passing proves to be just enough to stave off France as yet again, you hear the name Yamal, and the Barcelona man will give the French defense nightmares. In Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain have a secondary attacker as well, who will be able to make sure all the pressure isn’t on Yamal.

England facing Portugal is a glitzy match in its own right, but England are going to do what they do best and take the sting out of the clash as Elliot Anderson performs in midfield like the Rolls-Royce that he is. Ronaldo’s run may end, but the hope that it does indeed come home will remain.

Third-place match pick

France 2, Portugal 1

Somewhere, a game happened, and a victor was crowned.

Final pick

Spain 1, England 0

Heartbreak. England make the final as Thomas Tuchel has gotten the best out of his versatile squad, but this Spain team is so well balanced. They’ll bundle into a goal in the match and then pass the ball to take the sting out, as the final lacks the excitement of the semifinals, especially after needing to break for a halftime show.