Analyzing what the Canadiens are up against in the high-flying Sabres

After a 15-year absence from the playoffs, the Buffalo Sabres are in no rush to leave. They are in the second round for the first time since 2007 and will host the Montreal Canadiens in Game 1 on Wednesday. 

“It’s one step in the right direction. That’s it,” Sabres forward Alex Tuch told reporters after Buffalo eliminated the Boston Bruins in six games. “Every team sets out in training camp to try to be the best at the end of the year and try to hoist the Stanley Cup, so obviously that’s our goal for our team as well. We’re one round into the playoffs. In our eyes, we haven’t done anything yet.” 

Here is what the Canadiens will have to contend with in the next round: 

A top-of-the-line top line

The Sabres got past the Bruins despite scoring just once on the power play in 24 tries (4.2 per cent). That is because Buffalo practically lived in Boston’s defensive zone at five-on-five, generating 57.2 per cent of the expected goals (xGF%). The Sabres (4:34) averaged a full minute more of offensive-zone possession time per game than the Bruins (3:33) at five-on-five. 

The Bruins had no answers for the Sabres’ top forward line of Tuch, Tage Thompson and Peyton Krebs. Buffalo outscored Boston 6-0 over the nearly 70 minutes that Krebs, Thompson and Tuch shared the ice at five-on-five. (Thompson’s 26 scoring chances and 17 slot shots on net in all situations both rank tied for third in the playoffs.)

The Canadiens survived the first round with top-line forwards Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky getting outscored 4-0 and recording a 40.1 xGF% in 55:07 of ice time. That, of course, is not a sustainable formula. (Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis split up his top line in the latter portion of the series against the Tampa Bay Lightning; Caufield, Suzuki and Slafkovsky played together for just 10:10 at even strength in Games 5-7.)

Krebs, Thompson and Tuch were not the only Sabres forwards who left their marks on the team’s first playoff series win in almost two decades. Zach Benson was an absolute menace, pacing the Sabres in shot quality and puck-battle wins at five-on-five against the Bruins.

Benson’s feistiness was on full display in the third period of the Sabres’ series-clinching win. He rifled an inner-slot shot past Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman to give the Sabres a two-goal cushion, then goaded defenceman Charlie McAvoy into slashing him as time ticked down in Boston’s season. Benson’s 5.44 penalties drawn per 60 minutes lead all 279 players who have appeared in at least four playoff games. 

“It’s his game,” Thompson told reporters after Game 6. “You see guys doing stuff like that to him, there’s a reason for it. He gets under the best players’ skin, and now he came through in a big moment for us there with a goal, too. Love the way he plays. Huge fan of his game, and he’s a big piece of why we’re successful and where we’re at.”

The Sabres’ top four on defence features three players selected in the top five of their respective drafts — Rasmus Dahlin (No. 1 overall in 2018), Bowen Byram (No. 4 overall in 2019) and Owen Power (No. 1 overall in 2021). Those three ultra-talented defenders, plus the understated Mattias Samuelsson, have driven play in a big way to start the playoffs.  

Dahlin, who is a Masterton Trophy finalist and could be a Norris Trophy finalist, leads all 90 defencemen who have played at least four playoff games with a 68.2 xGF% at five-on-five. The next-closest defenceman is Dallas’ Nils Lundkvist, who had a 62.9 xGF% in the first round. Power and Byram had a 6-3 edge in on-ice goals and a 58.5 xGF% as a pair in the opening series. 

Montreal’s Lane Hutson is arguably the most dynamic player at his position in the upcoming series, leading all Canadiens and Sabres defencemen in scoring chances (eight), offence-generating plays (54) and slot-driving plays (28). But Buffalo has three defencemen in Dahlin, Byram and Power who excel at activating offensively. They have combined for 19 scoring chances, 93 offence-generating plays and 38 slot-driving plays. 

Canadiens goaltender Jakub Dobes attained hero status Sunday when he withstood a 29-9 shot disadvantage and stole Game 7 against the Lightning. The 24-year-old rookie has been dialed in since the Olympic break. He has recorded nine steals (39.1 per cent) and 19 quality starts (82.6 per cent) in 23 tries since Feb. 28. 

The Sabres, meanwhile, are riding Alex Lyon into the second round after he stonewalled the Bruins to close out the series. Lyon, 33, relieved Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Game 2 against Boston and has not looked back, saving 6.8 goals above expected over parts of five games (1.6 per 60 minutes). He stopped 18 of 19 inner-slot shots on net and 41 of 44 slot shots. 

Lyon and Carolina’s Frederik Andersen are the only remaining goaltenders who have posted a perfect quality-start rate, meaning they have saved more goals than expected in all of their starts. 

—All stats via Sportlogiq