Sports
CBB picks: Expert reveals best national semifinal futures bet, team to avoid
This week in our college basketball futures article, I’ll take a look at the national semifinal market. While a lot of people focus on who will win the championship, sometimes wagering on a team to reach the national semifinal round is the smarter bet.
One thing I look for in betting college basketball futures is teams peaking late in the season. Those big matchups in November are fun to watch but the reality is they don’t mean much come March. Here are a couple of teams I like in the national semifinal futures market and one to avoid. All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best bet: UConn Huskies (+340)
Remember a couple of months ago when betting UConn to win it all was all the rage? After the Huskies fell to St. John’s though, there hasn’t been much talk about UConn with bettors now more enamored with other teams.
One reason I believe the Huskies are flying a bit under the radar is because they play in the weak Big East conference. UConn had a killer non-conference schedule, so wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida, and Texas got people excited. However, the Huskies have played just one big game since Christmas and that was a 81-72 loss to the Red Storm.
I do believe playing in a weaker conference can hurt teams come NCAA Tournament time. That has been an issue for Gonzaga over the years. The difference is Danny Hurley has two titles and knows how to prepare his team in March.
The key metric to predict a college basketball champion is finding teams that rank top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. UConn is right on the cusp, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency as of Feb. 18.
The Huskies also create a lot of turnovers and are a strong rebounding team. The only key metric I look at for the NCAA Tournament where UConn falls short is free throw shooting. The Huskies hit just 70% from the foul line, and that can be a factor in close games.
I came into the season thinking UConn was one of the top teams in the country and my opinion hasn’t changed. We are now at the buy point on the Huskies. There is good value backing UConn +340 to make the national semifinal and +1700 to win the title.
Best value: Purdue Boilermakers (+600)
Purdue is coming off a blowout loss to Michigan at home, so it may feel like a weird time to back them in the futures market. Betting futures is about being objective and looking for a number. Michigan is better than Purdue and the odds-on favorite to win the title. However, in a one-and-done format like the NCAA Tournament, Purdue may not have to play Michigan to reach the national semifinal and even after the loss, I still believe the Boilermakers can be dangerous in March.
The thing I like about the Boilermakers is they are elite offensively and good enough defensively. Purdue ranks second in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency. Compare that to a team like Alabama, who is also an elite offensive basketball team but ranks a distant 57th in defensive efficiency. The Tide’s defense simply isn’t good enough to win a title.
Purdue is a veteran team that rebounds, shoots well from the perimeter and doesn’t turn the ball over. Those are all qualities I look for in the NCAA Tournament. Another positive is the Boilermakers have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and been in a lot of close games. Stuff like that matters in March when a lot of games come down to the final few minutes.
Purdue has stumbled at times stepping up in class with losses at home to Iowa State, Illinois and Michigan. Still, I believe the Boilermakers have the ingredients to win a few games in the NCAA Tournament and make a national semifinal run if they draw a favorable bracket.
Team to avoid: Alabama Crimson Tide (+1300)
The one championship futures bet I made before the season was Alabama at +4000. Both the Tide and Iowa State were sitting around that number and I was deciding which team to bet. I chose poorly.
Alabama has a puncher’s chance against anyone because of its offense. It’s tough to play a team that routinely scores 90+ points. The Tide have scored at least 88 points a ridiculous 19 times this season. But I have to question a team that scores 100 points and only beats an average Texas A&M squad by three. It’s hard to see a scenario where Alabama’s defense holds up if the Tide face Duke, UConn or one of the better teams in the Big Ten and Big 12.
The other thing that scares me about the Crimson Tide isn’t they don’t rebound well. Alabama is 0-10 in its last 10 games against Tennessee and Florida. Why? Because those two teams bully the Tide in the paint and dominate the offensive glass. Again, that doesn’t bode well in potential matchups against strong rebounding teams like Michigan, Houston, Duke and UConn in the NCAA Tournament.
Alabama is one of the most exciting teams in the country to watch and they have the talent to win a couple of games in the tournament. However, given the Tide’s defensive liabilities, making the second weekend feels like the ceiling for them this season.