A little over nine months ago, the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners packed their bags for a return trip to Rogers Centre with the AL West champs leading the American League Championship Series, 3-2.

It set the stage for an epic continuation of Toronto’s playoff run, with George Springer’s Game 7 homer proving the exclamation point on consecutive Blue Jays wins to clinch a berth in the World Series.

But as October approaches once again, the Blue Jays and Mariners find themselves meeting north of the border this weekend for the first time since the ALCS — not as division leaders, but as sub-.500 clubs hoping for a late-season surge back into the playoff picture.

While there is no pennant on the line this time around, the stakes are still plenty high, with both expansion brothers needing every win they can get over the coming weeks.

Both Seattle (64-70) and Toronto (65-70) entered the season among the favourites to represent the AL in the 2026 World Series, but slumping stars, injuries and general underperformance have shattered those lofty expectations in both cities.

So, as the Blue Jays and Mariners battle it out in Toronto, they will be looking to chase down the red-hot Cleveland Guardians, whose seven-game win streak has allowed them to take sole possession of the third wild-card spot.

Alongside the ALCS rematch, there’s plenty of action that could impact the AL standings this weekend. Here’s a full look at where things stand in the playoff race:

If the post-season started today

The Guardians entered the week locked in a confusing three-way tie with the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros at 65-66. But Cleveland eliminated the need for any confusion by taking care of business with a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels, going two games above .500 and giving itself a two-game cushion over the rest of the wild-card field.

Beyond the Guardians, each of the Rangers, Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers all lost their respective series this week and took a step back in the chase. It was perhaps a more discouraging few days for Toronto and Minnesota, who dropped their three-game sets to the Kansas City Royals and Athletics, respectively.

The Baltimore Orioles and Seattle both ended up winning their series against National League clubs but fell short of a sweep, preventing them from keeping pace with Cleveland.

Four burning questions for AL wild-card race this weekend

How do the Blue Jays respond to their Royal disappointment? After Thursday’s 13-2 defeat at the hands of the 60-75 Kansas City Royals, Toronto will need to wipe the slate clean against the Mariners. The good news for the Blue Jays is that the top of their rotation is on turn for the three-game set, with Dylan Cease, José Soriano and Max Scherzer scheduled to start over the weekend. Few pitchers are better positioned to get their team out of a funk right now than Cease, as the Cy Young candidate boasts a 1.48 ERA and 35.2 per cent strikeout rate since the start of July. Ultimately, though, Toronto’s offence will continue to be under the spotlight against Emerson Hancock, Kade Anderson and Bryce Miller in a series that pits the Blue Jays against the only lineup in baseball to have mustered fewer runs this season.

Can Kansas City keep causing chaos? The Royals have spent August playing spoiler in the AL wild-card picture, and they’ll have the chance to deliver another blow against Cleveland. With series wins over each of the Twins, Tigers and Blue Jays under its belt this month, Kansas City has gone 13-8 over its last 21 games to do away with soft-schedule narratives contenders had hoped to capitalize on. For as well as the Royals have played, they’ll be on the other side of a long stretch of winning this weekend when they host the streaking Guardians. Cleveland’s seven consecutive victories have come against the San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies and Angels, so it will be worth monitoring how it fares going forward as its schedule ramps up — starting with the upstart Royals.

Will the Orioles take advantage of a trip to Sacramento? It’s hard to imagine where Baltimore would be without Pete Alonso. The “Polar Bear” has been the driving force in the Orioles’ lineup for most of 2026, but he’s reached a new level this month and is slashing .374/.430/.703 with nine home runs in August. Alonso’s power surge has boosted the Orioles to two straight series wins — a stretch they’ll hope to extend as they visit the Athletics this weekend. It’s the type of series that Baltimore needs to take advantage of, as the A’s have been MLB’s worst team at home this season and are 12-26 in the second half. Sutter Health Park has once again been a launching pad this season, so the Orioles will need their pitching staff to step up and give Alonso and his fellow hitters some support if they are to continue creeping toward the top of the wild-card mix.

Do we see a shake-up atop the wild-card picture? Although they’re holding down the first and second wild-card positions in the AL, this weekend’s series between the Red Sox and Yankees could have significant post-season implications. As the final regular-season matchup between the historic rivals this year, not only could Boston pull even with New York by taking three of four, but it could also clinch any tiebreaker with a series split. As we saw last October, when New York bested the Red Sox in the three-game wild card at Yankee Stadium, home-field advantage can certainly be a factor in such a short playoff series. And with the two AL East clubs seemingly destined for another October meeting, perhaps this four-game set will serve as a playoff preview while they jockey for positioning in the wide-open American League.

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among American League teams battling for post-season spots.

Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Chicago’s FanGraphs odds: 78.5% | Chicago’s Baseball Reference odds: 95.8%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 52.4% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 56.4%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 98.8% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.8%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 62.7% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 58.4%

Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 31.8% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 25.8%

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 12.3% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 13.6%

Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 9.7% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 13.0%

Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 39.4% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 25.9%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 11.7% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 6.0%

Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 2.6% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 5.4%