Italy enjoy historic Winter Games: Is home advantage real?

• Home advantage smaller than ever before, but still a factor
• Italian women playing a huge role in host’s success
• Familiarity with facilities the main reason for Italy’s strong display
• History shows negative spillover possible

From Francesca Lollobrigida setting an Olympic record in the women’s 3,000-meter speed skating for Italy’s first gold to alpine skier Federica Brignone winning her second gold medal in three days, this has been Italy’s Winter Olympics in more ways than one. Their haul of 24 medals* is their best ever at the Winter Olympics, with their previous best of 20 coming in Lillehammer over 30 years ago.

But how much of Italy’s success is because they are at home?

Both the US and Canada enjoyed very successful Games when they hosted in 2002 and 2010 respectively. South Korea and China won more medals as hosts than ever before, but historically speaking the concept of home advantage is more complicated.

Carl Singleton is a senior lecturer in economics at the University of Stirling, Scotland, and has written multiple papers analyzing the idea of home advantage at the Olympics. In 2021, he co-authored one looking at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games between 1896 and 2021 and his findings revealed that over the span of the Olympics, home advantage has gradually reduced.

This is logical given the diversity of sports and events has increased, as has competition and participation. There are over 90 countries competing in Italy this month, whereas there were just 16 at the first Winter Olympics back in 1924.

“If you just look at that long history of the Olympic Games, home advantage now is possibly as small as it’s ever been, even though it’s still obviously quite there and substantial,” Singleton told DW.

Women playing a major role

Italy collected 17 medals in total in Beijing, with two of those being gold. In 2026, on home snow and ice, the Games are not even finished and they have already won 24, including eight golds. The most striking part of their success is the major role played by women.

Singleton’s data shows that in the Winter Olympics, the home advantage between 1988 and 2016 was “around 50% larger in men’s events but non-existent in women’s events.”

Italy’s women have changed all that, both this year and last. They have already medaled, either as a single athlete or as part of a team, in 16 events this year (four more than at the last Games).

“Women’s sports have become much more competitive, more funding, more access,” Singleton said.

“So now you’re maybe seeing the home advantage amplified through the women’s sports matching the home advantage that you might have always or more commonly seen in men’s sports.”

Facility familiarity the major factor

Singleton’s research points to four major factors that influence home advantage – a supportive home crowd, no travel, familiarity with conditions/tracks and favorable refereeing/umpiring bias. And, in 2026, Italy’s marginal gains have most likely been found in their familiarity with the facilities.

Italy have added just two new venues for these Games, the sliding center and the much discussed Santagiulia ice arena.

“So they’ve got familiarity with everything else, which is great,” said Singleton, highlighting that Italians likely had a chance to practice at the other facilities before any other athletes.

Growing up on this snow combined with being some of the top athletes in the world has been the perfect nudge for these athletes to get onto the podium.

“They’ve maximized the familiarity factor at these Games,” Singleton said.

How long-lasting is this success?

While some things are meant to be enjoyed in the moment, there will always be questions asked about the longevity and legacy of such events, especially when such a large amount has been invested. In other words, will there be a spillover performance at the 2030 Winter Olympics in France?

Singleton’s data reveals significant evidence that in the Summer Games, spillovers are real but on average there wasn’t a spillover for the Winter Games.

In fact, looking at recent hosts more than anything, there appears to be a tendency towards a sharp decline. After China won 15 medals at home in 2022, they have won just five in Milan and Cortina. South Korea went from 17 at home in 2018 to nine in 2022, and have just six this time around. While medals are not necessarily a barometer of whether a country’s sporting development pathways are healthy, they clearly matter to hosts.

The hope is, as always with major sporting events, that both the act of hosting and the success of home athletes will inspire the next generation. However, Singleton believes there isn’t a lot of strong evidence that the Olympics lead to long-lasting participation changes. Indeed, the cost is a big problem for many. It can though, make a difference beyond the numbers.

“I’m a macro economist by trade, and I tell my students all the time, there are many things that we can’t quantify in GDP, that don’t show up in national accounts, and I think these things are valuable,” Singleton said.

“Maybe, you can’t say that it was worth the initial money because it’s hard to make that comparison, but the memories, the experiences and the sense of national pride are important things which don’t show up in a country’s balance sheet. And that’s, to some extent, a big factor as to why certain nations bid for these things as well, because there are intangible benefits of hosting these events,” Singleton said.

“I think if every country can lose itself for three weeks and sport can develop a shared memory, then that is what is important.”

Italy’s athletes at these Winter Olympics have shown that even if home advantage is smaller than ever, it can be turned into special and memorable performances.

* As of 16:45 CET on February 17, 2026
Edited by: Chuck Penfold