Week 2 in the NFL was a weird one. We went from shootouts and fun in Week 1 to low-scoring games and injuries. Weather robbed us of a fun matchup in Chicago between the Bears and Minnesota Vikings, then Jaxson Dart’s injury robbed us of what could have been a fun Monday night showdown between the New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams. Overall, not a great week for football fans.

As for our picks, we went 7-9 against the spread and 2-3 on best bets. We cashed on the San Francisco 49ers blowing out the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets keeping things close with the Green Bay Packers, but somehow were on the wrong side of Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles and Baker Mayfield getting beat by the Cleveland Browns. Mayfield is now 0-2 against his former team. 

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 5-5
Overall ATS record: 15-17
Straight-up record: 19-13

Houston Texans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

This is a sort of a “put my money where my mouth is” situation. I’m not very concerned that the Houston Texans have started 0-2. For one, they had to play Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Secondly, DeMeco Ryans has started 0-2 in three out of his four seasons as head coach. Yet, he’s finished with double-digit wins every year. 

Still, I agree it’s worrisome that this Texans defense hasn’t looked stout and that the offense couldn’t find the end zone at all last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Not having Nico Collins really hurts, but I still like this Houston team more than its rival here.

The Indianapolis Colts kept up with the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but I couldn’t get over how bad this defense was. The Colts are just the third team in NFL history to allow 500 yards of total offense in each of their first two games, joining the 1967 Falcons and the 2016 Raiders. They rank dead last in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense. Plus, Daniel Jones isn’t going to have Alec Pierce to throw to! Houston is 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road divisional games. I’ll call my shot here and take the Texans.

The pick: Texans -1.5
Projected score: Texans 27-21

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

What can you say about the Los Angeles Chargers? They are the first team ever to start 0-2 with both losses coming to 14-loss teams from the previous season. Everyone wants to talk about Justin Herbert, but I’m watching his receivers either drop balls or give them to the wrong team — or straight-up switch their allegiances, play defense and stop their teammates from catching them.

I agree Herbert hasn’t been good. Yes, it’s true he’s not Josh Allen. He can’t power otherwise bad or average teams to wins by himself. But if you want to blame the quarterback for all the Chargers’ issues, then you’re simply not watching. 

When I watch Chargers tape, I get frightened by the defense. They aren’t really generating pressure, and there have been multiple blown coverages. Even when the Chargers stick to their assignments, it doesn’t really matter. Some of the throws Kirk Cousins was making last week were offensive. 

There’s almost an arrogance with these. “I don’t trust you guys to stop this, so I’m just going to trust my receivers.” 

Okay, that was kind of a rant, but all that to say is that I don’t trust the Chargers to cover against the best team in football in their first road game of the year. Herbert is having to answer tough questions from reporters, the Buffalo Bills had a long week to prepare for this game, and the fan base is still riding high after that successful home opener vs. the Detroit Lions. There is going to be a packed house to watch the Bills debut the ugliest uniforms of all time. 

The pick: Bills -7
Projected score: Bills 29-17

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I’ve become a Jets merchant, cashing on them in both Week 1 and Week 2. Now I’m flipping on them, because how they lost last week to the Packers was embarrassing. 

Aaron Glenn was content to let Jordan Love have the final play of a tie game instead of taking a timeout and giving his offense a final chance. And I’m not so sure he remembered the rules for overtime, since he elected to take the ball first and promptly go three-and-out. C’mon, man.

It’s true that the Lions’ defense is once again going to stop them from contending for a Super Bowl, but Jared Goff should get back two of his starting offensive linemen this week, and the offense as a whole is still electric. Jahmyr Gibbs has racked up 299 total yards and three touchdowns this season, while Amon-Ra St. Brown became the first player to catch two touchdowns in a team’s first two games of a season since Rob Gronkowski in 2021. 

Quite simply, the Lions are going to outscore the Jets. And I want to see Dan Campbell take some anger out on his former defensive coordinator after getting embarrassed on a national stage last Thursday night. The Lions are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games following a loss, so Campbell usually comes through. 

The pick: Lions -6.5
Projected score: Lions 28-16

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I would argue that the Denver Broncos looked like the worst team in football in Week 1. Week 2 was a different story. 

The Broncos defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 20-13, after trailing by 10 points in the second half. Trevor Lawrence and his Jags were dominant in Week 1 vs. Cleveland, but the only thing that was dominant this past Sunday was the Broncos’ defensive front vs. the Jaguars’ offensive line. 

It took longer than expected, but Davis Webb and Bo Nix finally found a rhythm. Jaylen Waddle carried the passing game with 138 yards on eight receptions, and you started to see glimpses of why people think Denver could be a Super Bowl contender. After all, they came one Nix injury away from making the big game last February. 

As for the Rams, they danced all over the lifeless Giants, who had the collective air knocked out of them when Jaxson Dart went down with his knee injury. How much stock are we supposed to put into that game? I guess we learned Davante Adams is still a good wide receiver? He’ll have to be a star again on Sunday night, because I’m not sure Puka Nacua will suit up with his hip/groin issue. 

I’m calling the upset here. Nix has this weird thing when it comes to beating teams in the NFC. He’s 9-0 in his past nine games against NFC opponents and has scored 23 total touchdowns, with just two turnovers and a 104.2 passer rating in those contests. This is a redemption opportunity for Denver after that season opener in Kansas City that was a borderline FCC violation. 

The pick: Broncos +2.5
Projected score: Broncos 26-24

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Chicago Bears

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I don’t understand this line, but I’ll bite. It’s Jalen Hurts vs. a 38-year-old Case Keenum who hasn’t started since 2023. Caleb Williams is sidelined with his hamstring injury, and Tyson Bagent is working through concussion protocol, so here comes the former University of Houston quarterback who led the NCAA in passing yards and passing touchdowns TWICE back in the day.

Keenum is 30-36 as a starting quarterback, and his last completion of 20+ air yards came in 2019 with Washington! Expect Ben Johnson to run the ball plenty, which could work since Chicago owns the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL through Week 2 with 212.5 rushing yards per game. However, Kyle Monangai is dealing with a knee injury that held him out of practice on Thursday, so his availability will be something to watch.

I think Hurts has made some strides in this new Sean Mannion offense. It hasn’t been perfect, but Philly went a collective 12-of-19 on third and fourth downs last week against the Titans. It was remarkable. Saquon Barkley is going to play after suffering a stinger last Sunday, and the Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games following a win. I’ll take the Eagles. 

The pick: Eagles -4.5
Projected score: Eagles 21-13

Other Week 3 picks

Seahawks (-7.5) 23-13 over Commanders
Chiefs (-10.5) 24-10 over Dolphins
Browns (+2.5) 23-20 over Panthers
Bengals (-3.5) 23-16 over Steelers
Titans (+2.5) 17-14 over Giants
Jaguars (-3) 24-20 over Patriots
49ers 30-23 over Cardinals (+8.5)
Buccaneers (+1.5) 21-20 over Vikings
Saints (-3) 27-23 over Raiders
Ravens 33-30 over Cowboys (+3.5)