Two of UFC’s most exciting fighters are set to clash for the BMF championship on Saturday when Max Holloway defends the ceremonial title against Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC 326.
Holloway vs. Oliveira is a rematch of a 2015 fight that ended in disappointing fashion when Oliveira suffered an injury less than two minutes after the opening bell. Amazingly, both men are just as relevant at the elite level as they were 11 years ago and now fight with not only the BMF title on the line, but also positioning in a deep and competitive lightweight division.
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Saturday marks just the fourth BMF fight in promotional history. It began in 2019 when Nate Diaz took on Jorge Masvidal for the inaugural belt where Dwyane “The Rock” Johnson was on hand to place the title around the winner’s waist. It was not until four years later in 2023 when the title reappeared for a matchup between Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier at UFC 291, where Gaethje scored a brutal knockout win. The title was then “defended” by Gaethje against Holloway at UFC 300, where Holloway scored one of the most iconic knockouts in recent memory.
Be sure to keep up with all the action on Saturday with our live coverage, including round-by-round scoring and updated fight results throughout the night!
The undercard on Saturday features plenty of veterans looking to make one last big run toward the top. Former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt is back in a prelim bout against Xiao Long. Veteran middleweight Gregory Rodrigues can make a splash if he can avenge a past loss against Brunno Ferreira in a featured bout. Rodrigues has won five of his last six and could vault into the top 10 with a win on Saturday. Plus, veterans of 55 combined UFC fights collide at lightweight when Michael Johnson and Drew Dober square off.
With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities that you can consider before hitting the sportsbooks.
UFC 326: How Max Holloway has continued to prove Khabib Nurmagomedov wrong: ‘I didn’t want an easy ride’
Shakiel Mahjouri
UFC 326 fight card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (as of March 7)
- Max Holloway (c) -220 vs. Charles Oliveira +170, lightweights (BMF title)
- Caio Borralho -250 vs. Reinier de Ridder +205, middleweights
- Raul Rosas Jr. -270 vs. Rob Font +220, bantamweights
- Michael Johnson -118 vs. Drew Dober -102, lightweights
- Gregory Rodrigues -162 vs. Brunno Ferreira +136, middleweights
- Xiao Long -155 vs. Cody Garbrandt +130, bantamweights
- Donte Johnson -800 vs. Cody Brundage +550, middleweights
- Alberto Montes -180 vs. Ricky Turcios +150, featherweights
- Nyamjargal Tumendemberel -162 vs. Cody Durden +136, flyweights
- Su Mudaerji -218 vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar +180, flyweights
- Rafael Tobias -180 vs. Diyar Nurgozhay +150, light heavyweights
- Luke Fernandez -218 vs. Rodolfo Bellato +180, light heavyweights
UFC 326 predictions, picks
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.
|
| Holloway vs. Oliveira |
Holloway TKO4 |
Holloway UD |
Holloway TKO3 |
Holloway TKO |
Holloway UD |
| Borralho vs. de Ridder |
Borralho UD |
Borralho TKO3 |
de Ridder UD |
Borralho UD |
de Ridder SUB2 |
| Rosas vs. Font |
Rosas SUB3 |
Font UD |
Rosas UD |
Font UD |
Rosas UD |
| Johnson vs. Dober |
Dober TKO2 |
Dober TKO2 |
Johnson KO3 |
Dober KO |
Johnson UD |
| Rodrigues vs. Ferreira |
Rodrigues TKO3 |
Rodrigues UD |
Rodrigues TKO3 |
Ferreira UD |
Rodrigues TKO2 |
| Records to date |
5-5 |
8-2 |
7-3 |
7-3 |
6-4 |
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira predictions
Campbell: For as explosive as this matchup has the potential to be, with Holloway facing the most prolific finisher and submission expert in the history of the sport, it’s hard to ignore the subtle advantages that the Hawaiian legend will hold. Holloway is not only two years younger than Oliveira at age 34, he appears to be far more fresher. And the combination of Holloway’s traditionally stubborn takedown defense and the fact that his striking has much more of a defensive and technical base than Oliveira should be the difference in the fight. Oliveira will likely create chaos early and often but Holloway performs just fine in scenarios such as this and the deeper the fight goes, the greater potential that Oliveira succumbs to damage in the form of a TKO.
Brookhouse: It’s hard to imagine many better fights to make than Holloway vs. Oliveira. That was true for the first meeting in 2015, which ended when Oliveira suffered what he called a neck injury that nearly left him paralyzed 99 seconds into the fight, and it’s true in 2026. Two fantastic fighters with incredibly long careers, Holloway and Oliveira are a pairing anyone should want to watch whether for a title, a ceremonial title or simply because those fighters have been scheduled to fight one another. As for the fight itself, Holloway has the better striking and he defends takedowns at a better than 80% clip. That makes for a tricky path for Oliveira, who has good striking and excellent submissions, to find areas for success. On the feet, Holloway has the clear edge, and it’s not going to be easy for Oliveira drag the fight to the ground. The fight should be as good as advertised, but Holloway should be the man getting his hand raised in the end.
Mahjouri: Holloway has found new life at lightweight. The UFC record-holder for most strikes landed has additional power to complement his volume striking. “Blessed” has beat people through death by a thousand cuts. Now, he’s knocking Justin Gaethje out cold. That’s perilous for Oliveira, who seeks close-quarter chaos to find the finish. Unlike Holloway, Oliveira lacks the durability for this specific brawl. Combine that with Holloway’s tried and true takedown defense, and you have a successful title defense for the BMF champ.
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Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder predictions
Campbell: Both fighters are coming off humbling defeats to snap winning streaks in bouts that could’ve elevated either one to a title shot had they looked spectacular. Because of that, the idea that one or both would operate more safely than usual to avoid a second straight defeat becomes a strong possibility. For as long and awkward as RDR is on his feet, Borralho’s striking advantage simply can’t be overlooked. The Brazilian also has enough of a ground game not to fall victim to the areas where de Ridder is most dangerous.
Brookhouse: The winner here proves their recent loss was but a blip on the radar, and they re-enter the conversation of potential title contenders. The loser is now on a two-fight skid and ends up in a tricky position at 185 pounds. For de Ridder, it’s obvious that being a massive middleweight and repeatedly making a very draining cut caught up to him against Brendan Allen, but cardio and striking have been issues for de Ridder throughout his entire MMA career. Borralho just looked lost against a defensive-minded Nassourdine Imavov and couldn’t find a way to dictate the pace of that fight. If Borralho can just shift through the gears and keep pressure on de Ridder, he should be able to take over the fight late.
Mahjouri: I’m split on how this fight plays out. Borralho is more well-rounded with a strong grappling base to supplement his effective striking. De Ridder is a monster on the ground, relying on size and sheer physicality to get it there. I understand why Borralho is a betting favorite, but the odds are too wide. Perhaps people are reading too much into De Ridder’s deflated performance against Brendan Allen. I believe RDR when he says that five fights in eight months took a toll on his body — he’s a massive middleweight. Spurred by odds more than rational, I think De Ridder wins two ugly rounds.
Raul Rosas vs. Rob Font predictions
Campbell: This entire fight comes down to whether the 22-year-old Rosas can get inside the vaunted jab of Font and succeed in bringing the fight to the ground. That’s why this step-up opportunity against his first ranked opponent comes at the perfect time in Rosas’ evolution, in the aftermath of four consecutive wins following his lone pro loss (a 2023 decision to Christian Rodriguez). While Rosas could struggle at times to match Font’s level of experience and pure boxing skills, his recent arc suggests he’s ready for this challenge and that, inevitably, Rosas will be able to control the terms to set up the submission in the biggest fight of his young career.
Brookhouse: It seems unfair of me to say that I haven’t been consistently blown away by Rosas in his UFC performances. He’s 21 years old and has a 5-1 record in the biggest fight promotion in the world. That is undeniably impressive. But at a certain point, a fighter has to be judged as a fighter. Maybe it’s just hard for me to shake Rosas getting outlanded in total strikes 83 to 2 in his loss to Christian Rodriguez while only finishing 3 of 16 takedowns. Rodriguez has solid takedown defense, but not elite, and he’s nowhere near the fighter Font is. Yes, that was three years ago and Rosas has won four fights since, but against a lower tier of opposition and didn’t exactly blow anyone away in his two most recent decision wins over Aoriqileng and Vince Morales. Font is a gatekeeper in the best sense. The men who have defeated him are almost all legitimate elite talents. Whether Rosas can get takedowns is basically the only thing that determines this fight. If he can put Font on his back repeatedly — Font defends just 43% of takedowns, though against far more accomplished fighters than Rosas — this is Rosas’ fight to win. If the fight stays on the feet, it’s going to be a very long night for Rosas.
Mahjouri: Is it too soon for Rosas, 21, to fight a ranked contender? Maybe. Is Font his best path to the bantamweight top 15? Certainly. Font’s takedown defense has been exploitable forever. He gave up 22 takedowns in his last four fights. It’s almost remarkable that he’s remained a ranked bantamweight for so long despite this glaring hole. What’s more, he actually won two of those fights. That says something about Font’s ability to eke out wins against less experienced opponents. While Font’s recent success gives me pause, I’m struggling to root against Rosas when his best quality is his foe’s Achilles heel.
Who wins Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.
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