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Chasing trends or buying value? The strategy that wins over time

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Chasing trends or buying value? The strategy that wins over time
The global stock market landscape has become increasingly complex, shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and shifting liquidity conditions. Yet, amid this volatility, timeless investing principles, such as those advocated by Joel Greenblatt offer a structured lens to interpret market behavior and identify opportunities.

A Market Driven by Noise, Not Always Value

Global equities today are influenced as much by sentiment as by fundamentals. Short-term movements are often erratic, driven by interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and capital flows. As Joel Greenblatt highlighted in his bestselling book “The Little Book That Beats the Market.”, stock prices can fluctuate wildly in the short run without a corresponding change in the underlying business value .

This disconnect is particularly visible in current global markets:

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US markets remain sensitive to monetary policy shifts and inflation data.

European equities face energy price volatility and growth concerns.
Emerging markets, including India, are navigating capital inflows alongside currency pressures.


Such conditions reinforce the idea that markets behave irrationally in the short term but tend toward efficiency over the long term.

The Rise of Factor-Based and Value Investing

In an environment where macro signals dominate headlines, investors are increasingly turning toward systematic strategies. Greenblatt’s Magic Formula, built on earnings yield (value) and return on capital (quality), offers a disciplined approach to stock selection.This framework aligns well with the current global scenario:

Earnings yield helps identify stocks that are undervalued relative to their earnings potential.
As global markets oscillate between growth and value cycles, such factor-based investing has gained traction among institutional and retail investors alike.

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Mispricing Opportunities in a Fragmented Market

One of the defining characteristics of today’s global market is dispersion, while some sectors are richly valued, others remain overlooked. Greenblatt’s philosophy is rooted in identifying these inefficiencies.

Markets often misprice stocks due to emotional reactions and short-term narratives. This creates opportunities to buy good businesses at bargain prices, a principle also echoed by Warren Buffett.

In the current cycle:

Technology and AI-driven stocks may appear expensive but continue to command premium valuations.
Cyclical sectors like metals, energy, and financials often swing between undervaluation and sharp rallies.
Mid- and small-cap stocks globally present pockets of mispricing due to liquidity constraints and risk aversion.

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Patience and Time Horizon: The Missing Edge

A key takeaway from Greenblatt’s approach is that even the best strategies can underperform in the short term. He emphasizes that lack of patience is one of the primary reasons investors fail to benefit from sound investment frameworks .

This insight is particularly relevant today:

Markets are reacting quickly to news, leading to frequent corrections and rallies.
Investors often chase momentum, abandoning long-term strategies prematurely.

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In contrast, disciplined investors who stay invested across cycles are better positioned to capture long-term alpha.

Diversification and Risk Management in a Global Context

Global investing today demands diversification, not just across stocks, but across geographies and sectors. Greenblatt underscores diversification as essential to withstand adverse periods and allow a sound process to deliver results over time .

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Given current uncertainties:

A diversified portfolio can balance developed and emerging market exposure.
Sectoral diversification helps mitigate risks from commodity cycles or policy changes.

India in the Global Equation

India continues to stand out as a relatively resilient market, supported by domestic demand, structural reforms, and earnings visibility. However, it is not immune to global shocks:

Foreign institutional flows remain sensitive to global liquidity.
Valuations in certain segments appear stretched, increasing the importance of selective investing.

Applying a disciplined approach can help Indian investors navigate this environment by focusing on quality businesses available at reasonable valuations.

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Back to Basics in a Complex World

The global stock market may be entering a phase where macro uncertainties persist, but the core principles of investing remain unchanged. Greenblatt’s Magic Formula reinforces a simple yet powerful idea:

Successful investing lies in systematically identifying strong businesses trading at attractive prices, and having the patience to stay invested.

In a world dominated by noise, algorithms, and rapid capital flows, returning to such fundamental, value-driven frameworks may well be the most effective way to generate consistent long-term returns.

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Verano Is The Best Large MSO Stock (OTCMKTS:VRNO)

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Verano Is The Best Large MSO Stock (OTCMKTS:VRNO)

This article was written by

Alan Brochstein, CFA, is one of the first investment professionals to focus exclusively on the cannabis industry. Alan got his start as a financial professional in the securities industry in 1986, managing investments in institutional environments until he founded AB Analytical Services in 2007 in order to provide independent consulting to registered investment advisors. He is also the managing partner of New Cannabis Ventures, a leading provider of relevant financial information in the cannabis industry since 2015. Most recently, Alan has focused on ETFs, sharing articles here at Seeking Alpha under the alias The Intelligent ETF Investor.Alan has run the investing group for investors interested in the publicly-traded cannabis stocks that he moved to Seeking Alpha in 2023, since 2013. As the leader of the investing group. Alan closely covers 19 stocks and shares investment news as it comes out, previews of their earnings reports and analysis of them afterwards. Other features of the group include: a model portfolio, 10 videos per week with chart analysis, 3 summary pieces weekly, a monthly newsletter, and chat for questions Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Saudi Arabia stocks higher at close of trade; Tadawul All Share up 0.11%

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85 Days Missing as Ransom Theories and FBI Probe Deepen Mystery

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Nancy Guthrie

TUCSON, Ariz. — Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of NBC “Today” show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, remains missing more than 85 days after authorities believe she was abducted from her Catalina Foothills home in the early hours of Feb. 1, 2026, leaving investigators chasing ransom motives, a masked suspect on surveillance video and a growing list of unanswered questions in one of the year’s most high-profile cases.

Nancy Guthrie
Nancy Guthrie

Blood evidence at the scene, disabled security cameras and signs of a struggle have convinced Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos and the FBI that the widow was taken against her will. No arrests have been made, no suspects publicly named and her whereabouts — or whether she is still alive — remain unknown despite an intensive multi-agency search.

The case has gripped the nation, drawing parallels to other high-profile abductions while highlighting the unique challenges of investigating crimes involving elderly victims and celebrity connections. Family members, led by Savannah Guthrie, have pleaded publicly for information and offered substantial rewards, yet leads have been scarce.

The Night of the Abduction

Nancy Guthrie was last seen around 9:45 p.m. on Jan. 31 after family members dropped her off at her Tucson-area home following dinner. She did not appear for a planned church-related activity the next morning, prompting concern. When friends checked her residence, they found signs of disturbance.

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Authorities discovered blood on the front entrance, believed to be from Guthrie possibly coughing or struggling during the abduction. Her personal effects, including medications she required, were left behind. Security cameras had been tampered with or disabled.

FBI-released footage and photos show a masked individual, armed and carrying a backpack, approaching the home on the night in question. Additional recovered images from earlier days suggest the suspect may have scouted the property in advance. The person remains unidentified.

Ransom Demands and Hoaxes

Soon after the disappearance, purported ransom notes surfaced, including one demanding $6 million. The family publicly stated they would pay for her safe return. A $1 million reward was offered in late February for information leading to her recovery.

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Multiple hoax communications have complicated the investigation. Derrick Callella faces trial for allegedly sending a fake ransom text to Savannah Guthrie. Other notes, including claims of sightings in Sonora, Mexico, have circulated but lack verification. Experts note kidnappers sometimes send communications to prolong family anguish even without proof of life.

Former FBI agent Jennifer Coffindaffer described the motive as “simple”: kidnapping for ransom. She suggested Nancy may have died during the ordeal, with perpetrators continuing to torment the family through notes despite knowing the FBI advises against paying without proof of life.

Forensic experts and profilers, including Ann Burgess of “Mindhunter” fame, theorize something went wrong inside the home. Burgess suggested the abduction might have targeted someone else in Guthrie’s circle or stemmed from retribution, with her health possibly underestimated by captors.

Ongoing Investigation

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The FBI has joined local authorities, analyzing DNA from gloves found nearby (later linked to an unrelated individual) and additional surveillance footage. Tens of thousands of tips have poured in, with searches involving drones, ground teams and neighboring properties.

Sheriff Nanos has repeatedly stated no prime suspects or persons of interest have been identified. Family members, including Savannah and siblings, were cleared early on. Recent rumors of new detentions have been publicly debunked.

Nancy’s advanced age and medical needs have raised fears for her survival. Detectives believe kidnappers may have miscalculated her frailty, potentially leading to complications if she was held for any length of time.

Family’s Anguish and Public Pleas

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Savannah Guthrie returned to the “Today” show in early April, describing the ordeal as unimaginable. The family has cooperated fully with investigators while navigating intense media scrutiny. In interviews, Savannah has wondered whether her public profile made her mother a target.

The Guthries have emphasized hope while preparing for difficult possibilities. Their $1 million reward and emotional appeals continue to generate tips, though many lead to dead ends.

Broader Implications

The case underscores vulnerabilities for elderly residents in affluent areas and challenges in high-profile investigations. Celebrity connections bring resources but also complicate privacy and fuel speculation. Profilers note financial gain as the leading theory, though personal grudges or opportunistic crimes have not been ruled out.

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Pima County officials continue coordinating with federal partners. Advances in DNA technology and private labs are being utilized, but without a body or clear suspect, the case has grown colder with each passing week.

Community support remains strong in the Tucson area, with vigils and calls for information. Nancy Guthrie, described as a devoted mother and grandmother, lived a relatively private life despite her daughter’s fame.

As the search enters its fourth month, authorities urge anyone with information — even seemingly minor details — to come forward. The masked suspect’s image has been widely distributed, yet no positive identification has emerged.

Experts warn that prolonged cases like this become exponentially harder, with evidence degrading and memories fading. Still, the combined efforts of law enforcement, the family and the public keep hope alive that Nancy Guthrie will be found and answers delivered.

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The disappearance has sparked nationwide conversations about elder safety, ransom protocols and the human toll of uncertainty. For the Guthrie family, every day without resolution brings renewed determination mixed with profound grief.

Investigators remain tight-lipped on specifics to protect the case, but public updates continue. As tips are vetted and technology applied, the hope persists that one breakthrough — a witness, a match or a confession — could finally bring Nancy home.

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Pope Leo says those who wage war are thieves stealing away our peaceful future

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Pope Leo says those who wage war are thieves stealing away our peaceful future


Pope Leo says those who wage war are thieves stealing away our peaceful future

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Indonesia establishes regional smoke monitoring hub to combat transboundary air pollution within Southeast Asia

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Indonesia establishes regional smoke monitoring hub to combat transboundary air pollution within Southeast Asia

Indonesia inaugurated the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control Secretariat in Jakarta, strengthening regional cooperation to combat cross-border haze from forest fires. The centre will provide real-time monitoring, technical coordination, and early warning systems, shifting ASEAN toward proactive haze management across Southeast Asia.

Key Points

• Indonesia has inaugurated the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control (ACC THPC) Secretariat in Jakarta, aimed at combating cross-border haze from forest fires disrupting public health, aviation, and economies across Southeast Asia.

• The centre will serve as a regional command hub for real-time fire monitoring, technical coordination, early warning systems, and cross-border firefighting efforts, shifting ASEAN’s approach from reactive to proactive haze management.

• By hosting the secretariat, Indonesia reaffirms its commitment to regional environmental governance, strengthening collaboration with ASEAN partners and national agencies to achieve a long-sought haze-free Southeast Asia.

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Indonesia Launches ASEAN Haze Pollution Control Secretariat

A landmark step toward regional environmental governance
Indonesia has inaugurated the Secretariat Office of the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control (ACC THPC), marking a significant milestone in Southeast Asia’s efforts to combat cross-border haze pollution. Led by Minister of Environment Hanif Faisol Nurofiq, the inauguration took place in East Jakarta on April 22, 2026. The initiative operates under the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, a legally binding framework committing member states to coordinated prevention and mitigation efforts.

Addressing an urgent and recurring regional crisis
Transboundary haze, driven by forest and land fires, has long disrupted public health, aviation, and economic activity across the region. Authorities have flagged heightened fire risks this year due to an intensified El Niño cycle. The secretariat is designed to serve as a regional command hub, enabling real-time information sharing, cross-border firefighting coordination, and emergency assistance mobilization during major fire incidents.


Core Functions and Operational Mandate of the ACC THPC

From reactive management to proactive risk mitigation
The ACC THPC is mandated to deliver three essential functions: real-time monitoring of fire hotspots and air quality, technical coordination of expertise and firefighting capabilities, and the strengthening of early warning systems during peak dry seasons. Together, these capabilities represent a strategic shift from crisis response toward preventive risk management, equipping ASEAN with the tools needed to anticipate and contain haze events before they escalate.

Building integrated cross-border cooperation
The secretariat’s establishment in Jakarta is expected to deepen collaboration between Indonesian agencies, including the National Disaster Management Agency, the Ministry of Environment, and the Ministry of Forestry, and their ASEAN counterparts. This institutional alignment is considered essential for ensuring that fire prevention and suppression efforts remain coordinated across borders, particularly in multi-jurisdictional haze-affected zones.

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Indonesia’s Leadership Role in Regional Environmental Governance

Reaffirming national commitment to haze reduction
Indonesia has reiterated its dedication to tackling forest and land fires through stronger prevention measures, faster response mechanisms, stricter law enforcement, and ecosystem restoration. By hosting the ACC THPC secretariat, Jakarta is positioning itself as the primary coordination hub for haze control in Southeast Asia, signaling a clear intent to assume a more central role in shaping regional environmental policy.

A renewed ASEAN consensus on institutionalized cooperation
Broad regional support for the centre reflects a growing ASEAN consensus on the need for more structured, operationally focused collaboration. Minister Hanif emphasized that the centre will enable faster data exchange and more coordinated resource deployment during emergencies. While a haze-free Southeast Asia has remained an elusive goal despite decades of efforts, this initiative offers renewed momentum through a more effective and institutionalized regional framework.

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Kenyan Star’s Epic Rise to Sub-2 Marathon Glory

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Sabastian Kimaru Sawe

LONDON — Sabastian Kimaru Sawe, the quiet Kenyan who just rewrote marathon history with a stunning 1:59:30 victory at the 2026 TCS London Marathon, has emerged as one of the most compelling figures in distance running.

Sabastian Kimaru Sawe
Sabastian Kimaru Sawe

The 31-year-old became the first athlete to break the two-hour barrier in an official, competition-eligible marathon, capping a meteoric rise from rural Kenyan roads to global dominance. Here are 10 essential things to know about the man they call the “silent assassin.”

1. Humble Beginnings in Kenya’s Rift Valley

Born on March 16, 1995 (some records list 1996), in Barsombe, Uasin Gishu County, Sawe grew up in the heart of Kenya’s famed running country. Like many elite athletes, he developed his endurance chasing cattle and running to school on dirt paths. His early life emphasized simplicity, hard work and a family mantra of resilience passed down from his grandmother, often referenced as “Koko” — “all will be well.”

2. Track Prodigy Turned Road King

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Sawe first gained attention on the track and in cross country. He finished seventh in the senior men’s race at the 2023 World Cross Country Championships in Bathurst. His track personal bests include a 27:09.46 in the 10,000 meters. He also set a Kenyan national record in the one-hour run with 21,250 meters in Brussels in 2022, showcasing extraordinary aerobic capacity.

3. Half-Marathon Dominance

Before conquering the full marathon, Sawe excelled at the half. He claimed gold at the 2023 World Road Running Championships in Riga with a strong performance. His personal best stands at 58:05 from Copenhagen in 2024. He has won seven of nine career half marathons, establishing himself as a world-class short-distance road runner.

4. Blistering Marathon Debut

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Sawe made his marathon debut at the 2024 Valencia Marathon, clocking 2:02:05 — the second-fastest debut in history, just 12 seconds behind the late Kelvin Kiptum’s mark on the same course. The performance immediately thrust him into the elite conversation and made him the fifth-fastest marathoner of all time at that point.

5. Back-to-Back Major Victories

In 2025, Sawe won the London Marathon in 2:02:27, his first Abbott World Marathon Major title, surging dramatically after 30K to drop a star-studded field. Later that year, he triumphed at the Berlin Marathon in 2:02:16 despite hot conditions, running alone for much of the race and posting the ninth-fastest time ever. He remains undefeated in his first four marathons.

6. Historic Sub-2 Breakthrough in 2026

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Defending his London title on April 26, 2026, Sawe delivered the unthinkable: 1:59:30, shattering the previous world record and becoming the first to go under two hours in a ratified race. Yomif Kejelcha finished second in 1:59:41 and Jacob Kiplimo third in 2:00:28 in one of the deepest fields ever assembled.

7. Coaching Partnership with Italian Mentor

Sawe trains under Italian coach Claudio Berardelli, who spotted his potential early. Berardelli has described him as exceptionally talented, noting his fearlessness and work ethic. Training includes grueling 40K long runs and weekly volumes up to 200 kilometers, blending traditional Kenyan methods with modern science.

8. Tactical Genius and Mental Toughness

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Known for bold moves, Sawe skipped water stations and unleashed devastating surges in London. His negative splits and ability to run solo demonstrate exceptional pacing judgment and mental fortitude. Rivals and analysts praise his calm demeanor — the “silent assassin” who lets his legs do the talking.

9. Injury Resilience and Comeback Story

Sawe has overcome challenges, including a stress fracture and back issues ahead of the 2026 London race. His ability to recover fully and deliver a world-record performance underscores his professionalism and support system, including physiotherapy and careful load management.

10. Legacy and Future Ambitions

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With a perfect marathon record and the sub-2 barrier broken, Sawe is poised to dominate the Abbott World Marathon Majors and chase further records. His success highlights advancements in training, nutrition and super shoes while honoring Kenya’s rich distance-running heritage. At just 31 and in only his fifth marathon, more history seems likely.

Sawe’s journey embodies the blend of raw talent, disciplined preparation and cultural resilience that defines Kenyan running. From the red dirt roads of Uasin Gishu to the finish line on The Mall, he has stayed true to his roots while pushing the sport’s boundaries.

His 2026 London triumph wasn’t just about one day — it was the culmination of years of invisible miles, family support and an unwavering belief that barriers exist to be broken. As the marathon world digests his achievement, Sawe remains focused, humble and driven for more.

In post-race comments, the champion reflected on the moment: the perfect pacing, the roaring crowds and the dream realized. For fans of the sport, Sabastian Sawe represents the new standard — proof that human limits continue to expand on the roads of London, Berlin, Valencia and beyond.

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His story resonates far beyond athletics. In a world seeking inspiration, the silent assassin from Kenya has spoken volumes with his feet, etching his name alongside legends like Eliud Kipchoge and Kelvin Kiptum while carving his own extraordinary path.

As Sawe looks ahead, the running community eagerly anticipates his next chapter. Whether defending titles, pursuing faster times or inspiring the next generation in Kenya, one thing is certain: the man who ran under two hours has only just begun. (Word count: 1,028)

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Acting US attorney general says WHCD suspect was likely targeting Trump administration officials

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Acting US attorney general says WHCD suspect was likely targeting Trump administration officials

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This tech company is set to overtake Nvidia as the world’s most profitable

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InvestingPro’s Fair Value warned Kura Sushi was overvalued at $103

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InvestingPro’s fair value model flagged CSG Systems’ 71% gain early

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