There’s no such thing as having “too much pitching,” and the Brewers are our latest example. They’ve been a pitching factory in recent years, and there was some fretting from Fantasy players in recent days and weeks about whether there would be enough room for Logan Henderson in the rotation, or whether interesting pitchers like Shane Drohan or Brandon Sproat would be out of a job by the time Henderson was healthy enough to return from a back injury.
But, as usually happens in these kinds of situations, attrition took care of that problem, with Brandon Woodruff suffering yet another setback with his troublesome right shoulder. Woodruff was placed on the IL Sunday after leaving Saturday’s start after just 61 pitches and amid another troubling drop in velocity.
Woodruff has dealt with a ton of injuries over the past four or five seasons with his right shoulder, most recently needing a minor procedure to remove a cyst that had developed in his shoulder in May. Woodruff acknowledged this injury seems similar to the previous one which caused him to miss almost two months, so I think you have to assume it’s going to be a similar timetable for Woodruff this time around. And even if he returns before that, I don’t see how you can assume he’ll stay healthy at this point.
That clears a rotation spot for Henderson, who is working his way back from a back injury but is expected to return to the rotation before the All-Star break. Henderson has had his own troubles staying healthy, but when he’s been on the mound, he’s been incredibly effective – in 10 MLB starts he has a 2.23 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate, elite numbers. With his return looming and a rotation spot open, he should be rostered in just about all Fantasy leagues these days – he’s available in around 25% of CBS Fantasy leagues entering Week 16.
And Woodruff wasn’t the only pitcher we lost this weekend. Carlos Rodon went on the IL elbow inflammation, and while Rodon did say his UCL is intact, we have to assume he’ll miss at least a few weeks, likely more – from 2021 through 2025, pitchers missed 46 days on average with an elbow inflammation diagnosis, so I wouldn’t expect him back until August.
And Shohei Ohtani left Friday’s game due to a biceps injury, similar to the one he dealt with a few months ago. The injury seems to be affecting Ohtani more as a hitter than a pitcher, but it wouldn’t shock me if they erred on the side of caution and didn’t pitch Ohtani until after the All-Star break next week, something manager Dave Roberts acknowledged the team is considering.
So, we’ve got some rotation spots to fill for Week 16 and beyond. If he’s available, Henderson should be at the top of your list of targets, but he probably isn’t, so here are five other pitchers to consider adding this week.
Troy Melton, Tigers (69%) – It was hard to get too excited about Melton in his first handful of starts, because despite really solid results, he wasn’t missing many bats. Well, he has 13 strikeouts to just one walk over his past two starts since a mechanical adjustment led to a spike in velocity, and suddenly he looks a lot more interesting. Melton has consistently missed bats in the minors, so it’s good to see him figuring out how to do it in the majors. If Henderson isn’t available, I think Melton should be your top target on the wire.
Joey Cantillo, Guardians (69%) – Despite a shaky performance in his most recent start, I still like the changes Cantillo has made lately, introducing a cutter, adding velocity across his entire arsenal, and prioritizing his curveball. He has 23 strikeouts to eight walks in 19 innings over his past three starts and if he can avoid walking too many hitters, I think there’s a path forward for Cantillo to be very useful moving forward – especially with two starts against the Twins and Marlins this week.
Cade Cavalli, Nationals (70%) – Cavalli is now one of two pitchers this season with both consecutive double-digit strikeout starts and a separate start of at least 13 strikeouts. The other one is Jacob Misiorowski. No, Cavalli isn’t anywhere near as good as Misiorowski, but he’s flashed rare bat-missing upside this season, so now it’s about finding some consistency. I don’t have a ton of faith in him to do that – he already stumbled in Sunday’s start – but he has shown rare upside, and that can be worth chasing.
Ian Seymour, Rays (54%) – If you’re in a points league, I don’t mind prioritizing Seymour ahead of Cavalli for the SPaRP eligibility. But I’m also open to the possibility that Seymour just might be better even without the positional eligibility gimmick. Across nine starts dating back to last season he has a 3.16 ERA and is a rare pitcher who actually sees his performance increase as a starter relative to his time in the bullpen, with his strikeout rate jumping from 24.7% to 29.1% in those nine starts. It’s still a small sample size, but given how effective he’s been in that role, I’m starting to believe.
Jake Bennett, Red Sox (50%) – The Red Sox aren’t quite on the Brewers’ level as a pitching factory, but they’re developing a well-earned reputation on that side of the ball, and Bennett is another win for them. He’s like a less-talented Payton Tolle, leaning on a very good pair of fastballs from the left side that has him down to a 3.10 ERA and 2.82 xERA through his first seven starts. He gets one start this week against the White Sox, a middling matchup, but he’s looked so good lately that I think you might just want Bennett around for the long run.
Hurston Waldrep, Braves (25%) – This one is probably more of a long-term play, because Waldrep didn’t have the feel for his splitter in his first start last week and looked shaky as a result. He’s expanded the arsenal since his prospect days, but it’s always going to be tough for him to succeed without that pitch, so he’ll need to lock in before we get to the point where it’ll feel good to trust him. But he has the kind of upside to get there for those of you in deeper leagues.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add ahead of Week 16:
Week 16 Waiver Targets
Catcher
Francisco Alvarez, Mets (45%)
It’s increasingly tough to break into the crowded field of No. 1-caliber catchers in Fantasy, which is why Alvarez’s roster rate has remained relatively low. However, he is coming off a May that saw him put up a .265/.306/.515 line with five homers in around two-thirds of a month, and he still has the best expected wOBA on contact of his career while matching last year’s strikeout rate, so I think Alvarez’s remains a little under-rostered, even if he does remain a fringe top-12 guy right now.
Deep league option: Endy Rodriguez, Pirates (20%) – What if Rodriguez is just finally healthy? He barely played across 2024 and 2025 while dealing with elbow issues that dated back to 2023, but was one of the top catching prospects in baseball before that. He has shown terrific plate discipline and plus power so far, including a really impressive 92.6 mph average exit velocity and 13.4% barrel rate. On the surface, Rodriguez looks like a difference-making bat, and while it’s reasonable to be skeptical about that, you should maintain that skepticism while nonetheless adding him in any two-catcher leagues, at least, with a bonus in leagues where OBP is directly valued.
First Base
Bryce Eldridge, Giants (74%)
Eldridge slumped in the latter part of June, but he still finished the month with a .300/.394/.489 line and just a 22% strikeout rate. As a lefty power hitter in the toughest ballpark in the majors for lefty power, Eldridge has a lot working against him, but with the strikeout rate remaining in check, he also has the skills to absolutely be a must-start first baseman for Fantasy. At the very least, you should want him in your lineup for Week 16, with what Scott White says are the second-best hitter matchups in the league.
Deep league option: Jacob Gonzalez, White Sox (14%) – Gonzalez has kept the strikeout issues largely in check since his promotion, and he’s starting to find ways to be productive despite not hitting for a ton of power. He finished June with 11 hits in his final six games, driving in 12 runs in that span. As a hot-hand player who figures to still have some runway with Munetaka Murakami out, Gonzalez is an interesting deep-league player with 1B and 2B eligibility.
Second Base
Cole Young, Mariners (40%)
Young might be starting to figure it out. He finished June with a .295/.333/.457 line, and it might not have been a fluke, as he struck out just 10 times in 111 plate appearances and put up a strong .369 expected wOBA. He’s still running a bit behind his expected stats overall and that might remain an issue for a young left-handed hitter stuck in one of the toughest ballparks in baseball. But both the underlying and surface-level numbers have taken a step forward this season and has gotten better as it has gone on, a good sign for a young hitter.
Deep league option: Javier Sanoja, Marlins (25%) – This one is mostly just a hot-hand play for a player I don’t have a ton of trust in. Sanoja has almost no power to speak of, but he makes a lot of contact and sprays line drives all over the field, which can lead to stretches he just gets hot and racks up hits; that’s what we’re seeing right now, with Sanoja putting together six multi-hit games in his past 12 starts. He won’t give you much beyond singles even when he’s hot, but he’s eligible at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF, which is a nice bonus if you play with a short bench.
Third Base
Royce Lewis, Twins (57%)
Going back to Triple-A for a spell seems to have helped Lewis, whose 90.7 mph average exit velocity in June was his highest for a month since last July. His underlying numbers still aren’t all that impressive since his return to the majors (though they are improved!), but Lewis has always been a hitter who outperforms metrics like xwOBA thanks to a high pulled-air rate that is actually the highest of his career at 32.4% this season. He’s hitting the ball hard, to the right parts of the field, and he’s doing so without his early-season strikeout issues, which is what we want to see, even if it hasn’t led to huge production lately. The skills are there for Lewis to remain a useful Fantasy contributor at either 1B or preferably 3B.
Deep league option: Sean Keys, Blue Jays (7%) – Keys is by no means a must-add player, even in AL-only leagues, mostly because it just isn’t clear how much he’s going to play in a crowded Blue Jays lineup. He needs to get hot quickly to have a chance, so it helps that he followed up his first homer Wednesday with his first two-hit game Friday. He had 21 homers in 67 games before his promotion down at Triple-A, so there’s some upside here if the playing time is there.
Shortstop
Nasim Nunez, Nationals (42%)
Nunez almost certainly won’t keep his hot streak up, but he hasn’t cooled off yet either. He hit .333 in June, nearly double his .173 average in May, and while it was mostly a fluke – his expected average in June was .230, his best mark in a month this season but also still clearly a putrid mark – it seems reasonable enough to just hop on board until it falls apart. If nothing else, you’ll continue to get a ton of steals from him at a time when he isn’t actively dragging your team down otherwise.
Deep league option: Anthony Volpes, Yankees (23%) – Volpe has remade himself again this season, focusing more on working the count and slapping line drives all over the field rather than trying to hit for power like he has in the past. It puts a pretty limited ceiling on his production, but he is getting on base and running a decent amount, putting together a near-30-steal pace since his return to the lineup. You won’t get much beyond steals, but in an OBP league, that could still be useful thanks to his strong walk rate so far.
Outfield
Esmerlyn Valdez, Pirates (57%)
Here’s the key question with Valdez: How high can the strikeout rate get before the profile just collapses? He’s going to hit the ball hard and work his way deep into counts, so it’s just a question of whether he can avoid strike three often enough to be productive. His current 33% strikeout rate is probably right on the borderline, and may in fact even be a bit too high for him to really make this all work. But he’s been astoundingly locked in and the strikeout rate was actually trending in the right direction before Sunday’s four-strikeout showing. Skepticism is a reasonable response to Valdez’s play so far, but he’s been too good to ignore, so let’s see if he can strike the right balance.
Dylan Crews, Nationals (51%)
It isn’t obvious from the surface-level numbers, but we’re starting to see signs from Crews. He has kept the strikeout rate in check since his return from Triple-A while actually hitting the ball with the kind of authority we’ve never really seen from him in the majors – his 90.9 mph average exit velocity and .385 expected wOBA on contact are both the best marks of his career and the first time he’s ever been above-average in either category. None of that is a guarantee that Crews will be a viable starter in Fantasy, but he’s playing on a 20-20 pace so far, so at least in categories leagues he’s showing signs of it already. And better days could be coming.
Jake McCarthy, Rockies (63%)
For a lot of Rockies hitters, you only really want to use them at home, but that might not be the case for McCarthy. Sure, he’s significantly better at home, but he’s been perfectly playable on the road, too, hitting .292 with eight stolen bases in 31 starts for the season. He isn’t an especially impactful hitter outside of Coors overall, but the batting average, speed, and generally strong approach at the plate – just an 18.4% strikeout rate on the road – make him a worthwhile option in any five-outfielder or categories league.
Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (25%)
The Cardinals play eight games in Week 16, so even if Nootbaar gets a day or two off, he’s likely to play a whole bunch this week. That makes him worth a look in all formats even before you get into his career-best .361 xwOBA, which is starting to make last season’s struggles look like an injury-related fluke.
Samad Taylor, Twins (25%)
Look, the .481 BABIP is clearly a fluke, and I’m not sure Taylor has much to fall back on as a hitter when that inevitably regresses. He has a pretty good approach at the plate, but swings and misses too much for a guy with effectively zero power, so eventually he is going to be relegated to the Fantasy also-ran category. But he makes sense as a short-term hot-hand play with some stolen base potential, at least.
Tommy Edman, Dodgers (40%)
I don’t have a ton of faith in Edman in the medium to long term unless he gets back to running, something I don’t expect to see given his history of ankle injuries. So this is another one where you’re buying into a player who is currently hot and just hoping he can keep it up, with the added bonus of 2B eligibility to make it easier to fit Edman into your lineup to give you some cheap exposure to the Dodgers lineup.
Relief Pitcher
Tyler Wells, Orioles (10%)
When Ryan Helsley went on the IL with another elbow injury, I assumed the Orioles would go with Rico Garcia in that role like they did last time. But when Friday’s game came around, Garcia worked the sixth and seventh innings, while converted starter Tyler Wells got the ninth for his first save. And proving it wasn’t just a one-off thing, they turned to Wells for the save the very next day. That’s a pattern, so I think we can go ahead and say Wells seems like the guy to roster here in the ninth inning for the Orioles.
Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (30%)
If you’re looking for another SPaRP and either Cantillo or Seymour are gone, give Lopez a look. He flopped in an earlier stint in the rotation to open the season but has rediscovered his lost velocity and looked excellent in his most recent start, striking out six and walking just one over five innings of work. I’ve never been a huge believer in Lopez’s, but he has been effective in the past and is worth an add in points leagues, at least.
Caleb Kilian, Giants (28%)
The Giants have been looking for an answer in the back end of the bullpen and they have settled on Kilian, who has the team’s past four saves and has been working exclusively in the ninth inning since the second week of June. I’m not convinced Kilian is a great pitcher – his 4.14 ERA is backed up by similarly iffy peripherals, thanks to poor command and some homer issues – but the role matters more here if you’re just looking to make up ground on saves.
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