Can Investors Trust AI Sales Figures? Asks Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece

A Wall Street Journal opinion piece warns of “a troubling trend” in AI’s growth. “Rather than selling software, some AI companies are paying their partners to use it.”

It cites OpenAI’s $1.5 billion joint venture with private-equity firms, Anthropic’s $200 million contribution to a private-equity firm joint venture, and Google’s $750 million subsidization of Gemini’s adoption by consulting firms. “These agreements muddy the distinction between a company’s sound growth trajectory and artificial financial engineering.”

[T]he scale and structure of the recent AI deals go beyond standard incentive mechanisms… When a seller pays customers to buy its products, it is unclear if its revenue growth reflects vibrant demand or a willingness to accept subsidies.
Slashdot reader destinyland writes:

This warning comes from a prominent figure in the investing community. For six years Robert Pozen was chairman of America’s oldest mutual fund company, after five years at Fidelity. An advocate for corporate governance, he’s currently a lecturer at MIT’s business school (and the author of the book Remote Inc.: How to Thrive at Work…Wherever You Are). “As AI companies prepare initial public offerings, investors should scrutinize their numbers closely,” Pozner writes, warning about “time-limited financial support”.
“In evaluating AI sales figures, analysts should consider the distorted incentives that the recent financing deals create,” writes Pozner:

Private-equity firms, enticed by promised returns, might demand rapid rollouts of AI products, rather than ensuring their orderly and safe development. Portfolio companies of private-equity firms may embrace AI tools not because they are needed but because adoption is mandated by their owners. Consultants may favor one set of AI models based on the subsidy instead of the merits.

If guarantees and subsidies are major factors in the rapid adoption of AI tools, investors should be skeptical of AI companies’ revenue projections. Many of their customers enticed by consultants will stop paying full price when the financial incentives are gone. Many of the portfolio companies of private-equity firms could back away from selected AI tools once these joint ventures expire. The challenge with evaluating these AI financing deals is the lack of transparency. At present, AI vendors don’t separate revenue driven by subsidies or joint ventures from standard sales.

The lesson from the telecom debacle is that financial engineering can obscure, for years, the difference between real customer demand and demand driven by incentives. When AI companies begin to finance their own product distribution, guaranteeing returns to investors and subsidizing sales, it’s a signal for investors to dig deeper.

Investing in an AI company? Ask what percentage of enterprise revenue is coming from subsidized channels or joint ventures, Pozner suggests. And the renewal/retention rate for customers not supported by subsidies or joint ventures…