Chinese chip companies are running unusually broad equity schemes to keep engineers, with Cambricon covering 85.3% of its workforce and AMEC more than 97%. Europe’s semiconductor sector has a talent gap estimated at 65,000 workers.

Chinese chip companies are giving away equity at a scale that looks less like a bonus scheme and more like a defensive measure. Cambricon has unlocked around 600,000 shares for 124 core staff, worth an average of 5.57mn yuan each, or about $828,000.

The breadth is the more striking number. The same company has granted 5mn shares to 944 employees, which is 85.3% of its workforce, in a plan running to 2028.

It is not alone in that approach. Zhongji InnoLight, which makes optical transceivers for AI data centres, allocated 2.48mn shares to 99 key personnel with average yields above 26mn yuan, and the chip equipment maker AMEC has a restricted stock plan covering more than 97% of its staff.

Cash is moving in the same direction. ByteDance and Tencent have reportedly offered pay increases of up to 150% and bonuses of around 35% to secure AI talent.

The pressure behind it is domestic as much as geopolitical. Chinese firms are poaching from one another while export controls have made domestic chip design a national priority, which concentrates demand on a small pool of engineers.

The awards are not unconditional. Cambricon has tied an incentive plan to a revenue target of roughly $14.8bn, which turns retention into a performance instrument rather than a gift.

Europe’s problem is described in the opposite terms. The European Chips Skills Academy has put the continent’s semiconductor talent gap at 65,000 workers, in a region that has more AI talent than the United States by headcount.

What Europe lacks is the instrument rather than the people. Many of its relevant employers are listed incumbents, research institutes or university spinouts, and employee share schemes differ so much between member states that equity is a harder tool to reach for.

Its answer has largely been training. Skills academies, apprenticeships and Chips Act programmes address supply, on a timescale measured in graduate cohorts rather than quarters.

The American answer is simply money. TNW has reported that Anthropic pays the highest salaries in AI research, to the point that its chief executive has worried aloud about people joining for the pay.

So three regions are answering the same shortage differently. China is offering ownership, America is offering cash, and Europe is offering courses, which is the only one of the three that cannot be accepted immediately.

Across the world, rising costs and an uncertain economy mean that smartphone sales are falling, yet Apple’s iPhone has still seen a 5% growth in the latest quarter.

The latest figures from Europe recently showed that as the smartphone market continues to contract, the iPhone continues to grow. Now figures for Latin America are saying a similar, but not identical thing.

According to Counterpoint Research, smartphone sales in Latin America for Q2 2026 saw their largest decline in three years. Compared to the same period in 2025, the market shrunk by 10%.

In Europe, Apple still saw its market share rise during that period, but for Latin America, the result is less clear cut. Apple remains behind Samsung, Xiaomi, and Motorola for market share, but it still grew its shipments by 5%.

Only Samsung did better at with a 6% increase. All others saw sales decline, with Xiaomi the worst affected with a 27% drop year over year.

LATAM Smartphone Shipments by OEM, Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026 YoY – image credit: Counterpoint Research.

The price rises from the global chip shortage contributed to the overall drop, with the greatest declines seen by the entry-level and mid-tier brands. Those account for three quarters of all the smartphones sold in the region.

Researchers credit Apple’s growth in the premium market in part to the company absorbing price rises, at least for the time being. They also report that there is consistent demand for the iPhone 17 Pro Max.

There was also steady demand for older iPhones, while the quarter benefited from the then still quite new iPhone 17e. That had launched midway through March, the last month of the previous quarter.

Apple’s fiscal Q2 runs from April to June, and there were no new iPhone launches in that time. The third quarter runs from July to September, so there will be a launch of the iPhone 18 Pro range toward the end of that quarter.

That will probably benefit Apple, but overall the research expects that Latin America smartphone sales will not improve until at least 2028.

The universe is full of cool and interesting things, like black hole stars and nightmare planets that get scorched by their host star. Now researchers have found a star that moves ridiculously fast, and it’s right in our celestial backyard, whipping around the Milky Way’s supermassive black hole.

Say hello to S301, a star near the center of our galaxy that was discovered by researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Germany. It joins the massive catalog of more than 1.8 billion stars, but it has some properties that researchers believe make it special. The first, and most obvious, thing about S301 is that it’s the fastest-moving celestial object ever observed by science. 

This superswift star hits a peak speed of around 15,500 miles per second, or about 55.8 million miles per hour. That happens, researchers say, after S301 accelerates as it nears Sagittarius A*, the black hole in the middle of the Milky Way, hitting that 15,500 mps mark as it makes a sharp turn to go around. It then slows as it takes a much wider loop back around to repeat its orbit. 

To give you an idea of how fast that is, the prior candidate for the fastest-moving celestial object ever recorded was a low-mass star and its accompanying super Neptune planet that zip at approximately 1.2 million mph, which translates to about 333 mps. 

Our solar system moves through space at about 500,000 mph, or approximately 140 mps, and the fastest human-made object ever created, the Parker Solar Probe, is cruising along at 430,000 mph. It still pales in comparison to the speed of light (186,282 mps), and the host of things that are almost that fast, like gravitational waves and black hole jets, but S301 beats out all other planets and stars observed by humans.

Lending a helping hand with black hole research

S301’s other notable quirk is its proximity to Sagittarius A* — 10 times closer to the black hole than the previous closest star, S2 — and according to the study, this is the speedy star’s true value. It’s so close that it can feel the effects from the black hole much more acutely than anything else humans know about. Researchers aim to study those effects to learn more about how black holes work.

This is important because looking at black holes is exceptionally difficult. Black holes have so much gravity that nothing can escape, not even light, so scientists have to measure the effects a black hole has on objects around it. A perfect example of this is the first picture of a black hole. You can’t actually see the black hole itself, but you can see the accretion disc that formed around it.

Researchers at the Max Planck Institute have already found and measured some of these effects on S301 and are hoping that observing and studying the star over the next decade can give them some insights about how black holes work. Since S301 is so close, researchers can test various theories that they were unable to before because no other known objects were close enough to feel these effects. 

One such example is the frame-dragging, or Lense-Thirring, effect, which was predicted by Albert Einstein in his general relativity theory. It states that massive rotating objects (like supermassive black holes) drag spacetime around with them, creating a rotating wave of spacetime that can alter and interact with nearby objects.

Think of yourself standing in a swimming pool with one arm out, palm open, just below the water surface, and then spin. You’ll notice a wave form in front of your arm as your rotation pushes your arm through the water. Einstein’s theory states that rotating black holes have this same effect on the fabric of spacetime. 

S301 is close enough to feel this effect, and researchers have already measured the Lense-Thirring effect on it. 

“S301 is the first star to orbit directly in the region around Sagittarius A* where the frame-dragging effect is extreme,” Felix Mang, Ph.D. student and corresponding author of the study, said in a statement. “We’re not just measuring spacetime curvature; we are measuring how it gets distorted by the rotation of the black hole itself. That is unique.”

The biggest challenge to studying S301 is that it’s extremely dim, about two billion times dimmer than Betelgeuse, which is the 10th brightest star in the sky. The crew at the Max Planck Institute employed a small army of instruments and methods to detect it in the first place, including the Gravity instrument on the Very Large Telescope and the Micado instrument on the Extremely Large Telescope, both located in Chile and part of the European Southern Observatory.

Fractile was founded in 2022 and operates from two primary locations in London and Bristol.

UK AI hardware start-up Fractile is in talks to raise funding of around $600m at a pre-money valuation of $6.5bn, according to Bloomberg.

The new valuation is estimated at more than six times that of the company’s last funding round in May, when it raised $220m.

The new funding is set to be co-led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and Redpoint Ventures, with the possible involvement of  Thrive Capital and Founders Fund, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

Fractile aims to enable the scaling of cheaper AI token processing for faster model reasoning by building hardware that offers “low latency and high throughput”, with its operations spanning “transistor-level circuit design up to cloud inference server logic”, according to the company.

The start-up has also reached an initial deal to sell around $250m of its chips to Anthropic for deployment in 2027, with an intention to expand the contract in the future, according to Bloomberg.

Proceeds of the May funding round – which was led by Accel, Factorial Funds and Founders Fund, with participation from Conviction, Gigascale, 01A, Felicis, Buckley Ventures and 8VC, alongside existing backers – were to be used by Fractile “to accelerate the path to getting our first chips and systems into customers’ hands”, it said at the time.

Fractile was founded in 2022 by CEO Walter Goodwin, who has a University of Oxford PhD in AI. It operates from two primary locations in London and Bristol but has previously also hired in Taiwan and San Francisco.

Global demand for AI chips of higher speeds and in greater quantities is ever-growing, with chipmakers surging in value, while shortages sparked by unprecedented demand continue to threaten supply chains across the tech world.

This week, AI inference start-up Etched raised $700m in a new funding round led by US trading firm Jane Street, which the company said boosted its valuation to $21bn.

ChangXin Memory Technologies, a Chinese manufacturer of dynamic random-access memory chips, recently replaced Tencent as the world’s most valuable Chinese company.

Earlier this month, AI giant Anthropic confirmed previously rumoured plans to design its own chips in response to a worldwide shortage and increased pressure to develop faster, more advanced AI systems.

Meanwhile, in Ireland, tech giant Intel recently announced a major €5bn investment in its Kildare facility, which the company said will strengthen Ireland’s semiconductor ecosystem.

Don’t miss out on the knowledge you need to succeed. Sign up for the Daily Brief, Silicon Republic’s digest of need-to-know sci-tech news.

On the tenth anniversary of UHD Blu-ray Disc, we sat down with three A/V industry experts to discuss the future of physical media and digital downloads, and whether 8K resolution will play any role in either.

Our panel included a Sony executive, who also serves as a committee chair at the Blu-ray Disc Association, the North American president of Magnetar, maker of high performance UHD Blu-ray Disc players, and the CEO of digital download platform Kaleidescape.

Their answers reveal something rather interesting: none of them appears to be waiting around for an 8K revolution.

Without further ado, here is how each of these experts views the role of 8K resolution in the broader consumer video landscape, along with what the future may hold for physical media and digital downloads.

Victor Matsuda, President and Chair of Global Promotions Committee at Blu-ray Disc Association, Vice President of Visual Entertainment, Sony Corporation

eCoustics: Is any working group at the BDA currently studying a commercial 8K movie-disc format or enhancement to the UHD Blu-ray standard to support 8K resolution?

Victor Matsuda: The BDA is not currently working on any commercial 8K disc format, and I don’t see us doing so in the near future. This has been our position for a while, and it hasn’t changed because we don’t see anything from content creators or consumers that indicates a need. Both are extremely satisfied with what Ultra HD Blu-ray delivers, so there isn’t a driving reason to stand up new work around an 8K disc format at this time.

eCoustics: Does the existing recordable 8K broadcast specification have any relevance to prerecorded entertainment?

Victor Matsuda: A recordable broadcast spec and a prerecorded, mastered entertainment format are built for different jobs. The broadcast spec is optimized to capture a live transmission in real time at a sustained bitrate. Prerecorded entertainment is mastered and authored for the best possible picture and sound, using tools like object-based audio that go beyond what a recordable spec needs to support.

With regard to Japan, the BDA already has a specification that touches this directly. Since 2018 we’ve licensed a 4K/8K broadcast-recordable format that lets Japanese consumers record satellite 8K broadcasts, NHK’s BS8K channel being the main example, onto BD-R and BD-RE discs, using the HEVC codec up to 8K/60p, with HDR support via Hybrid Log-Gamma, and capacities up to 128GB across four layers.

eCoustics: What technical limitation of UHD Blu-ray is most likely to matter over the next decade?

Victor Matsuda: I don’t see a particular technical limitation on UHD Blu-ray over the next decade, at least not with the content offerings and options that exist today. It’s always possible that some new type of content or feature could push the limits of the format’s capacity or bitrate, but we certainly haven’t seen that to date.

eCoustics: Could a future specification improve HDR, color depth, frame rates or audio without moving to 8K?

Victor Matsuda: Yes, and that’s where I think the more interesting work is happening. The developments that deepen a viewing experience — advances in HDR, color depth, immersive object-based audio — aren’t tied to resolution at all. Those are the gains that genuinely change how a movie feels, independent of whether you’re at 4K or a theoretical 8K. I’d expect any future refinement of the spec to keep leaning into that territory before anything to do with raw pixel count.

eCoustics: Does the BDA consider Ultra HD Blu-ray the final mass-market optical movie format?

Victor Matsuda: I wouldn’t call anything “final” in an absolute sense; formats evolve when there’s a real reason to. But right now, we don’t see anything from content creators or consumers to indicate a need for a new format. Both are extremely satisfied with what Ultra HD Blu-ray delivers, and for the reasons I’ve touched on already, that’s unlikely to change without some external driver.

eCoustics: What would have to happen commercially before the Association considered a successor?

Victor Matsuda: My experience as a product planner has taught me that new products generally grow from what I call needs or seeds. A need is an identified consumer or industry gap that a new technology can fill. A seed is an idea or technology that companies plant in hopes it opens up a possibility for consumers and industry that eventually grows into a need.

Commercially, the trigger would have to come from the content side. If a driving factor ever prompts a new physical format, it will most likely be the emergence of content the internet infrastructure simply can’t deliver at scale without compromising quality, something so demanding that streaming becomes the bottleneck again and physical media is the only way to carry that experience intact. Until that kind of content actually exists and needs a home, I don’t see a commercial case for moving toward a successor format.

Rob Jones, President, Magnetar North America

eCoustics: Are buyers asking for 8K playback, or are they more concerned with HDR, audio and build quality?

Rob Jones: Overwhelmingly the latter. We speak with our customers, dealers and installers regularly, and 8K rarely comes up. What buyers do ask about is picture fidelity, especially when it comes to 4K content. We field questions about HDR handling, Dolby Vision, color accuracy, tone mapping, and how well the player performs with the display or external processor they already own. On the audio side, our customers care deeply about lossless audio, high-quality DACs, dedicated outputs, and the questions can get even more complex.

Build quality and reference-level playback are consistent themes in the conversations we have with our buyers. Enthusiasts at this level have been burned before by hardware that was discontinued, or by exits in the category that have left cherished devices unsupported. They’re seeking a player that is built to last, backed by a company committed to the category. That is exactly where Magnetar has positioned itself. 8K is a spec-sheet conversation, not a customer conversation. Until the entire home entertainment chain and content ecosystem support it, resolution beyond 4K is not driving purchases from what we’re seeing.

eCoustics: Is there enough demand to justify developing another generation of optical players?

Rob Jones: Not yet, and for a very simple reason: the content needs to drive the format. We occasionally get asked about 8K, but until the studios move forward with 8K production and distribution, there is no need for an 8K disc format. Furthermore, there is nothing really on the horizon suggesting that transition is coming anytime soon. While, yes, some major productions are captured on 6K or 8K, very few are actually produced and finished through a true end-to-end 8K workflow. Capture resolution is only one part of the entire production pipeline.

What often gets lost in this conversation is just how exceptionally capable 4K UHD already is. With a great master, disc bitrates, encoding profiles and proper playback hardware, there’s still tremendous performance available at the 4K level. From our end, we’re most interested in extracting every level of detail available to us on a disc rather than chasing a resolution number the content itself does not support. That’s where our engineering investment goes and where we believe our customers see real returns.

eCoustics: Which parts required for player manufacturing are becoming difficult to source?

Rob Jones: At present, Magnetar is well positioned with our vendors, and we maintain a strong inventory position on the key components required to build our players. From this position, we foresee many years of continued manufacturing without concerns.

Of course, in any hardware category, individual components evolve or eventually reach end-of-life. When that happens, we plan for those transitions well in advance to ensure continuity of production from our end. Customers investing at this level deserve the confidence that the company behind their player is built for the long haul, and that is how we intend to operate.

eCoustics: Could existing UHD Blu-ray players remain viable for another decade?

Rob Jones: Absolutely, and we would argue that is one of the format’s greatest strengths. 4K UHD Blu-ray has been delivering reference-quality video and audio for a decade already, and for the vast majority of viewers, it sits at or beyond the threshold of what the human eye can even perceive. A disc purchased today will play the same in ten years as it does now, and it does not depend on a license agreement, a server or an active subscription. The format is stable, the library is already enormous, and the studios are actively supporting and adding to it.

The real variable here is hardware, which is why build quality and industry commitment are paramount. As we know, a well-engineered player, properly supported, should serve its owner for a long time. Because we’ve engineered our players to be universal media players rather than strictly Blu-ray players, they support all discs and file-based content alike, giving owners a platform that remains flexible and useful to them, regardless of how the landscape evolves around them.

eCoustics: Are customers buying players primarily for movies, music discs or both?

Rob Jones: From what we’ve observed here at Magnetar, both. Movies are certainly a primary driver for many of our customers, and it is this side of the business where we see adoption growing aggressively. The clearest evidence of this is coming directly from the studios themselves. When platform-defining streaming exclusives such as Stranger Things are released as deluxe physical media editions alongside The Sopranos, Dexter, Game of Thrones and others, that signals that consumers are actively buying film and television on disc in numbers that justify those releases. Each and every collector, deluxe or limited edition that is released is a signal that the customer base for physical media playback is expanding, and we see that reflected in our player sales as well.

At the same time, a significant and passionate segment of our base buys with music in mind as well, favoring CD, SACD and high-resolution audio files for playback. There is strong overlap between the two groups, as customers at this level are seeking out a singular reference-grade machine to serve both passions. That expectation has shaped how we build. Our players are universal media players by design, with serious attention paid to the audio and video side of the coin. Whether the content is on a physical disc or a file, the player should do that content justice. Our consumers are buying one platform for their entire collection.

eCoustics: What would persuade Magnetar to support a successor format?

Rob Jones: Three major stars would need to align for this to happen: genuine consumer demand, studio commitment and perceptible benefit to the viewer. Any successor format would require consumers to reinvest across their entire entertainment chain, so the improvement would absolutely have to be one the eye and ear could register, not just a marginal gain.

On the technical side of things, we are seeing some signals worth watching. 2026 marks the first implementation of physical discs with up to a terabyte of storage, for example. The real question here is whether or not the studios will adopt those capabilities, because a format only succeeds when there is content to feed it.

Tayloe Stansbury, Chairman and CEO, Kaleidescape

eCoustics: Does Kaleidescape see itself as the eventual successor to physical media?

Tayloe Stansbury: Consumers ultimately want the best way to enjoy and build a movie collection. Physical media has served enthusiasts incredibly well for decades. Kaleidescape preserves the collecting experience while combining it with the convenience and reliability of digital. Kaleidescape’s 4K Cinematic delivers a visual presentation beyond today’s 4K. With that, streaming, discs and downloads all have their individual benefits and have their place in the foreseeable future.

eCoustics: What happens to purchased movies if a studio agreement expires?

Tayloe Stansbury: When customers purchase a title, it remains part of their collection. Our studio relationships are built around supporting collectors by enabling customers to build lasting personal collections they access under license.

eCoustics: Can a customer continue playing downloaded titles indefinitely without internet access?

Tayloe Stansbury: Yes. Once a movie is downloaded to a Kaleidescape system, it plays directly from local storage without requiring an internet connection. Internet access is only needed to browse, purchase or download new content.

eCoustics: Could customers ever export or independently back up purchased files?

Tayloe Stansbury: No. Kaleidescape is a secure, studio-approved platform designed to protect copyrighted content while providing the highest-quality viewing experience. That security is a fundamental part of our agreements with content owners.

eCoustics: How does Kaleidescape define ownership?

Tayloe Stansbury: Regardless of disc, download, theatrical or streaming, movies are owned by studios and played back under license.

eCoustics: Could a lower-priced system bring premium downloads beyond luxury home theaters?

Tayloe Stansbury: While Kaleidescape has long been associated with dedicated home theaters, products like Strato E and Strato M have made the platform accessible to a much broader audience. Our goal is to bring the highest-quality movie experience to anyone who values great storytelling and wants to build a premium digital collection.

The Bottom Line

If these industry insiders are telling us anything, it’s this: don’t hold your breath for 8K. There is no commercial 8K format in development, no meaningful consumer demand, and little incentive for studios to absorb the higher production, mastering, replication, and hardware costs involved in launching not just a new format, but an entirely revised content creation, production, and distribution pipeline.

More importantly, 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray and 4K digital downloads already deliver enough resolution, HDR capability, color depth, bitrate, and lossless audio performance that the visible benefit of moving to 8K would be modest at best for most viewers at normal screen sizes and seating distances.

That does not mean physical media is finished. 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray and 4K digital downloads have settled into a smaller but committed enthusiast and collector market, supported by major studios, boutique labels, select hardware manufacturers, and a 4K movie and TV catalog that continues to grow.

The BDA representative confirmed that the current UHD Blu-ray Disc specification itself continues to evolve in ways that are far more meaningful than simply adding a few million more pixels.

For movie fans who care about consistent playback quality, immersive audio, bonus content, and owning a physical copy that does not depend on a subscription, changing licensing agreement, or disappearing streaming catalog, UHD Blu-ray still solves problems that streaming does not.

For those who want the convenience of instant digital downloads without the significant quality tradeoffs of streaming, services such as Kaleidescape can deliver all of the quality of physical media, and in some cases more, without the need for storage shelves or closets full of discs.

There is still some uncertainty, however, because a studio could potentially revoke access to a title stored in the cloud through a third party service. It is considerably harder to do that with a physical disc sitting on your shelf.

If you love your movies, we’d suggest buying the 4K UHD Blu-ray Discs you actually want to keep, maintain a capable player, and stop worrying about an 8K Blu-ray format that the industry itself does not appear to need.

Related Reading:

Other Monitor Arms We’ve Tested

Photograph: Jacob Roach

Wali Heavy-Duty Monitor Arm for $75: I made the brilliant decision to buy a 42-inch monitor without thinking about actually using a 42-inch monitor. Most monitor stands can’t support that kind of size, regardless of whether you’re using something like a 42-inch LG C4 or Samsung’s massive Odyssey OLED G9. This arm from Wali looks inconspicuous, but it’s kept my monitor—the KTC G42P5—stable for over a year without even a hint of droop. —Jacob Roach

Photograph: Luke Larsen

Branch Monitor Arm for $129: As I’ve discovered while testing monitor arms, many of them use the same exact parts with only minor differences in branding. You likely wouldn’t know that just by looking at the Amazon listing or even the company’s photos. I tested the Branch Monitor Arm, for example, and discovered that it’s nearly identical to the BenQ Ergo Arm. It’s a solid option and slightly cheaper, but it doesn’t come with the reinforcement plate to protect your desk, and the dual-arm version isn’t as versatile.

Monoprice Workstream Single Monitor Arm for $83: I’m using this dual version of this monitor arm to hold a 32-inch ultrawide monitor and a wide vertical monitor, and it’s been treating me wonderfully for several months. The arms move smoothly and don’t sink under the weight of the screens. It’s also one of the few monitor arms that has a clamp large enough for my thick 5-inch desktop. —Julian Chokkattu

Pout Eyes 12 Monitor Arm for $55: This was previously my pick as a solid budget monitor arm option. You have to be very careful with super cheap monitor arms on Amazon, but that’s not to say there’s nothing good out there. I tested this one out based on the clean look and cheap price, and although it’s far from perfect, I found a lot to like about it. First, there’s the design. It’s a simple touch, but the dual-tone, gray-and-black aesthetic has a bit more flavor than your average all-black monitor arm. The mechanism in the arm is mechanical, or “spring-assisted,” as the company says, meaning the motion isn’t as fluid as a gas spring. Unfortunately, it appears it’s no longer being sold directly to consumers, and is primarily a business-only product

AmazonBasics Adjustable Desk Mount Arm.

Photograph: Luke Larsen

AmazonBasics Adjustable Desk Mount Arm for $29: I’ll set aside the fact that the first version of this I received was beat up and busted, like it had been used (and even the replacement box had a big hole in it). But really, when it comes down to it, your monitor (and your neck) deserves something better than this. It might function better than some of the plastic, bottom-of-the-barrel stuff you’ll find on Amazon, but this old-school pole design means adjustments are inconvenient to make. It’s also pretty shaky, and I couldn’t get it to be as stable as other monitor arms I tested.

Mount-It! Heavy Duty Dual Monitor Arm for $322: I used this mount to hold up my 34-inch ultrawide monitor for years, and it worked like a charm. It can hold screens between 15 and 34 inches (up to 20 pounds). It’s adjustable, has built-in cable management, and doesn’t look hideous. It uses the VESA mounting standard, so make sure the monitor you have supports that. —Julian Chokkattu

Power up with unlimited access to WIRED. Get best-in-class reporting and exclusive subscriber content that’s too important to ignore. Subscribe Today.

An Apollo analysis of 321 occupations found that wages in jobs highly exposed to AI grew 6.7% more slowly after 2023, with no statistically significant employment effect. The gap was 10.7% in the lowest-paid quartile and absent in the highest.

The first measurable mark AI has left on the labour market is not unemployment. Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok says the employment effect so far is insignificant, and that the visible damage is to pay.

His analysis with Sania Edlich found that wages in occupations highly exposed to AI grew 6.7% more slowly after 2023 than in low-exposure work. Employment in those occupations showed no statistically significant change.

The distribution is the part worth sitting with. The gap was 10.7% in the bottom wage quartile, 5.4% in the second and 4.0% in the third, and there was no significant effect at all in the top quartile.

The method is unusual and worth stating. The authors matched 321 occupations to labour statistics data from 2015 to 2025, using the Anthropic Economic Index, which measures observed AI usage from actual model interactions rather than theoretical exposure.

They are candid about the limits. Exposure is measured from one company’s usage data, only 321 of roughly 800 occupations were matched, and their most dramatic figure, a 24.3% gap for service workers, is flagged as a small subsample to be treated with caution.

Other evidence points the other way. US statisticians found a 0.2% fall in jobs across 18 exposed occupations while payrolls overall grew 0.8%, and Goldman Sachs reported faster declines in openings in fields exposed to AI substitution, in a market where new entrants are already being squeezed.

Diane Gherson, formerly IBM’s chief human resources officer, offers a reason the job losses may be hard to see. Companies are quietly hiring fewer people into high-attrition, lower-wage roles rather than announcing layoffs.

She also names an accounting distortion that pushes the same way. Severance can be booked as a one-off restructuring charge that investors discount, while retraining lands in operating expenses every quarter, which makes cutting look better on paper than reskilling.

The counterexample she reaches for is European. Ikea retrained call centre staff as remote interior design advisers after automating much of their previous work, and the resulting service has been widely reported as a business worth around €1.3bn.

Slok’s wider claim is that the economy is getting more dynamic rather than smaller, with business formation at the highest rate on record. He also concedes the productivity payoff is unproven, since margins outside the largest technology companies have not yet risen.

Europe has no equivalent study, which is the gap worth noticing. The wage channel Apollo describes would be invisible in most European labour data, and TNW has already reported what AI is actually doing to jobs here without anyone measuring pay this way.