According to Romania’s electoral authority, the two names that will appear on the ballot in the May 18 second round must be publicized no later than May 9, though we will likely know which two candidates have pulled ahead sooner than that.
Theoretically, if a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, there will be no need for a second round in two weeks. But an outright winner this weekend would be unexpected.
Why does any of this matter?
There’s an awful lot at stake in this election, not just for Romania but for the European Union, NATO and even the Russia-Ukraine war.
Romania, a nation of about 19 million which borders Ukraine, has long been a reliable member of the EU and NATO. But if Simion — who has described his party’s style as “Trumpist” — wins, he has promised to push back against Brussels, telling POLITICO last November that he would break EU law if he deemed it necessary, and has said he wants to yank military support for Kyiv.
Ponta, the former prime minister, is also running on a MAGA-style platform, promising to halt Ukrainian grain exports through Romanian ports. Antonescu, the establishment candidate, and Dan, the Romanian capital’s mayor, are considered safer, more mainstream contenders by Brussels, though it remains to be seen how they would fare against Simion in a theoretical second round.
If the country makes a sharp turn to the right, it would join a growing hard-right contingent helping govern in Europe, from Hungary and Slovakia to Italy, Finland and the Netherlands.
POLITICO has outlined the various electoral scenarios and matchups that could take place after Sunday’s vote here.
