Truth is, the Western Balkans offers a proving ground for a more confident and effective European defense policy — especially, if the bloc can act together to stave off a new crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH).
Tensions in Bosnia escalated dramatically following last month’s conviction of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik by the State Court, resulting in a one-year prison sentence and a six-year ban from public office.
But while the decision plunged the country into its most serious emergency since 1995, remarkably, its state institutions have maintained their composure, defying expectations of a mortal crisis.
Meanwhile, Dodik — who spent the last 18 years actively working against Bosnian state institutions, backed by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — has threatened to strike the final separatist blow to Bosnia’s hard-won achievements. But while he hoped U.S. President Donald Trump would support his ambitions, those hopes have thus far been misplaced.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio shattered Dodik’s secessionist dreams, writing: “The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive dialogue. We call on our partners to push back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.”
Strong words then followed from London, Berlin, Brussels, Paris, Rome and Madrid. And on a day-visit to Bosnia this week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reaffirmed the alliance’s commitment to the country’s territorial integrity.
But while firm international statements have helped steady the situation for now, words alone cannot counter the ongoing risk to peace and security, particularly given the wider regional picture.
In Belgrade, Vučić is confronting mounting internal opposition, as student-led protests against corruption and unaccountable governance have persisted with unexpected tenacity for months. Faced with this domestic challenge, he may well resort to manufacturing an external crisis, potentially in Bosnia, to divert attention and shore up his position — a move that would align with his expansionist “Serbian World” strategy to unite all Serbs in one state.
Further afield, the Kremlin continues to thrive on division, viewing the Western Balkans as fertile ground for mischief. From Moldova and Georgia to Crimea and, ultimately, all of Ukraine, Russia has exploited insufficient Western attention and hesitation at every turn.
Europe must navigate this delicate situation carefully. Whether from Moscow, Budapest or Belgrade, autocrats fear internal opposition more than external pressure, and the resilience of Serbia’s student protesters demonstrates that nationalist revisionism isn’t inevitable. Resistance to authoritarian rule is growing even within Serbia itself.
Thus the Western Balkans now offers an opportunity for Europe to reverse its reactionary pattern through a strategy of deterrence, strength and principled engagement. And several clear principles must guide this approach: Borders must remain inviolable; violence must be deterred, democratic institutions must be strengthened and revisionists must not be permitted to dictate the region’s future.
In Bosnia, in particular, Europe possesses the necessary tools for this: The European Union Force in BiH (EUFOR), NATO headquarters in Sarajevo, the Office of the High Representative and the Berlin Process are all there, but it must summon the political will to deploy them effectively. And the announcement of an extra 400 EUFOR troops, now almost fully deployed, is a good start.
Additionally, BiH could also be given a security guarantee. A cessation in constant discussions over borders would benefit democracy in Bosnia and its neighbors — Serbia and even Croatia — which often gets stifled by the cause of protecting “their people” in the neighboring state.
For decades, Washington urged Europe to “take responsibility” for the Western Balkans. With external threats mounting on multiple fronts and Ukraine fighting for survival, the region now presents a critical opportunity for Europe to finally reclaim the strategic initiative and demonstrate genuine leadership — and not only through the framework of enlargement.
A proactive approach to BiH in particular could signal that Europe is no longer content to merely react but is prepared to shape events — precisely the forward-leaning posture needed in this new age of great power competition. And success here would demonstrate the bloc’s capacity to defend its fundamental principles, preserve decades of painstaking peace-building and reassert influence in a region central to its security interests.
The Western Balkans has long served as Europe’s testing ground. Today, it could become the region where Europe redefines itself — not as weak and divided but as strong, capable and ready to lead.
Whisper it softly, but in saving Bosnia, Europe might just save itself.
