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How low will Bitcoin go?
Let’s talk about a few indicators that give some suggestions on how low the price of Bitcoin could eventually go.
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In order to understand terminal price, we first look at a different concept called transferred price. Transferred price is equal to the cumulative Value Days Destroyed (Price * Coin Days destroyed) divided by the market age * supply. The market age is defined as the amount of days since the first price datapoint. The transferred price can be seen as a life-to-date moving average of spending behaviour.
The Terminal price is then equal to 21 * Transferred price. By multiplying by 21, we basically do a reverse supply adjustment. Instead of heavily weighting later behavior, it normalises historical behavior to today.
The balanced price is equal to the transferred price – realized price. During bear markets it denotes the level at which a full detox has been achieved; market price matching what was paid minus what was spent.
Usage
Terminal price was created to be a top-indicator. It backtests very well, detecting almost every price top. It fell just short of being crossed by the second price peak of 2021. By selecting the Price/Metric option at the top, you could see how far the terminal, balanced or realized price differ from BTC’s price. When BTC price/terminal price reaches values close to 1, that has historically been a good time to sell. When BTC price/balanced price or realized price reaches values close 1, that has historically been a good time to buy.
It is important to note that this metric is relatively new, it backtests well but some caution should be taken as it has not been tested to new tops yet. Another shortcoming is that sometimes terminal price crosses BTC’s price well before the actual price peak is in.
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Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.
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