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Here’s When Arthur Hayes Will Buy Bitcoin Again

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Arthur Hayes Explains How US-Iran Conflict Could Boost Bitcoin


Arthur Hayes says he’s waiting for central banks to print again before buying Bitcoin, even as he expects BTC to top $100K.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has said that he would not buy Bitcoin (BTC) today if he only had $1 to invest.

However, he still expects the cryptocurrency to eventually climb back above $100,000 once central banks return to printing money.

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Waiting for the Fed to Print

In a March 10 interview with Natalie Brunell on CoinStories, Hayes argued that the ongoing conflict pitting the U.S. and Israel against Iran has created a real risk of a broad market sell-off that could pull BTC below $60,000.

“There’s a situation where the longer that this carries on, there could be a massive sell-off in equities, and Bitcoin might fall a bit lower, might break $60,000, and that could be sort of a big cascading of liquidations down,” Hayes said during the interview.

According to him, every major Middle East conflict in his lifetime eventually prompted the Fed to print, leading him to conclude that the signal to watch is not the war itself but what central banks actually do in response.

“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No,” he said. “I would wait. I think that the longer that this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine, and that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin.”

However, he cautioned against trying to time the moment, noting that most people are following the same mainstream coverage and could likely misread the situation.

Asked why he thought BTC had underperformed over the past 6 to 9 months, the former BitMEX CEO pointed to what he described as a liquidity deficit rather than weak demand for the king cryptocurrency itself.

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“Bitcoin is a liquidity alarm,” he stated, arguing that AI-driven job displacement is quietly building deflationary pressure in the U.S. economy. In his view, there isn’t enough dollar liquidity to offset the other demands on capital, especially spending by large tech companies building out data center infrastructure.

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No Grand Schemes to Suppress Bitcoin

Hayes also pushed back on the idea that institutions or large market makers like Jane Street have been suppressing the price of BTC.

“I don’t think there’s anything nefarious or like some evil conspiracy of Jane Street and other market makers to try to manipulate prices lower,” he said.

The crypto trader attributed most such claims to investors looking for someone to blame after bad entries and advised anyone without a professional trading setup to completely avoid leverage and short-term positions.

Personally, he described himself as “structurally very, very long Bitcoin and other coins,” adding that there’s currently a much stronger need for stateless money than when Bitcoin launched in 2009.

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Hayes’s comments have come with Bitcoin trading just under the $70,000 mark following months of sideways price action. However, unlike the BitMEX co-founder’s suggestion that the asset could dip to $60,000, analyst Markus Thielen believes that the way BTC brushed off rising oil prices and geopolitical noise in the past week was a bullish sign, which made a move toward $80,000 more likely.

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Crypto World

Crypto Derivatives Hit $18.6T In Q1 2026: CoinGlass

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Crypto Derivatives Hit $18.6T In Q1 2026: CoinGlass

Binance maintained its leading position in crypto derivatives trading in the first quarter of 2026, while decentralized exchange Hyperliquid broke into the top 10 venues by volume, according to CoinGlass.

Derivatives trading remained the dominant force in the crypto market in Q1 2026, totaling $18.6 trillion compared with $1.94 trillion in spot trading, according to a CoinGlass report on Friday.

The analysts said trading activity remained strong over the quarter, though liquidity and capital became even more concentrated at the top. “Q1 was not about euphoria. It was about recovery, concentration, and shifting market structure,” CoinGlass said.

The data shows how a small group of exchanges continue to dominate crypto derivatives, even as decentralized platforms begin to emerge as competitors.

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Binance handles $4.9 trillion in derivatives versus $640 billion in spot

Binance processed about $4.9 trillion in derivatives volume in Q1 2026, or roughly 35% of activity among the top 10 exchanges. In 2025, the exchange held about 29% of $85.7 trillion in total derivatives volume.

The exchange also dominated spot markets at a similar share, with Q1 volumes amounting to roughly $640 billion, or around 34% of total volumes among the top 10.

Source: CoinGlass

Binance’s dominance points to its resilience despite controversy during the quarter, after several crypto community members, including OKX founder and CEO Star Xu, alleged that it played a major role in the mass liquidation event of Oct. 10, 2025.

Related: Binance sues Wall Street Journal amid report of DOJ Iran probe

Binance repeatedly denied the claims, saying the crash was driven primarily by macroeconomic factors, market maker risk controls and network congestion.

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Hyperliquid enters top 10 as perpetual DEXs gain ground

Hyperliquid, a perpetual decentralized exchange, reached a key milestone in the first quarter of 2026, breaking into the top 10 derivatives exchanges by volume roughly three years after its launch.

The platform recorded about $492.7 billion in trading volume during the quarter, securing its place among the industry’s largest derivatives venues, including Binance, OKX, Bybit, Gate, BitGet, BingX, LBank, WhiteBIT and Coinbase.

Related: Wallet in Telegram launches perpetual futures trading with Lighter

The milestone comes after steady growth across previous quarters. In its 2025 report, CoinGlass said Hyperliquid nearly dominated the entire perp DEX sector, with its market share reaching up to 70% at times.

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Perp DEX activity also expanded rapidly in 2025, with volumes nearly tripling over the year and accounting for up to 90% of volumes across major derivatives exchanges.

Magazine: Your guide to surviving this mini-crypto winter