By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The Iran war has single-handedly soured the macro environment for risk-takers in financial markets, and some participants are betting it could end soon.

Onchain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows that 10 wallets sprang to life on Sunday, wagering a cumulative $160,000 on a ceasefire by the end of March and eyeing a potential payout of over $1,000,000. The wallets have no prior transaction history and were created at the same time, raising suspicions of potential insider positioning on the outcome.

In any case, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, could see a relief bounce.

For now, however, the conflict is in its fourth week and keeping valuations under pressure. Bitcoin BTC$68,358.29 held below $69,000 at the time of writing, maintaining losses from the weekend. Ether fell to $2,030, its sixth decline in seven days. XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), DOGE$0.09045 and others were also under pressure, while a few privacy tokens such as NIGHT and XMR stood out with gains of over 3% in the past 24 hours.

“The market is trading one theme above all others: geopolitical inflation. The weekend brought a new escalation phase, including U.S. pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and further threats to regional energy infrastructure. That has kept oil risk elevated and left investors pricing a longer period of tight financial conditions,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

“Bitcoin still has the cleanest value-capture profile in crypto for this tape: scarce asset, improving institutional plumbing, and relative flow leadership versus the rest of the complex.,” he said.

Market flows, however, have yet to validate that view. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered outflows for the third straight day on Friday, alongside significant selling by large holders, or whales.

Ether, too, has seen large liquidations. A whale holding over 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) at $2,063, according to Lookonchain.

In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multimonth highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • March 23, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Construction Spending MoM for January est. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aave DAO is voting on deploying Aave V4 with a security-first initial setup, conservative risk parameters and a modular hub and spoke architecture. Voting ends March 23.
  • Floki DAO is voting to rank entries from Floki’s third guerrilla marketing competition. Voting ends March 23.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • March 23: HTX DAO (HTX) staking launches officially

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 3.01% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $71,044.86 (24hrs: +3.56%)
• ETH is up 5.07% at $2,168.32 (24hrs: +4.20%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% at 2,030.41 (24hrs: 2.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.45% at 104.30
• Gold futures are down 7.27% at $4,238.30
• Silver futures are down 8.18% at $63.69
• Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49
• Hang Seng closed down 3.54% at 24,382.47
• FTSE 100 is down 2.03% at 9,716.51
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.01% at 5,390.70
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.96% at 45,577.47
• S&P 500 closed down 1.51% at 6,506.48
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.01% at 21,647.61
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.69% at 31,317.41
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.15% at 3,150.00
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 11 bps at 4.39%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.03% at 6,626.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 24,231
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.15% at 46,147

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $32.30
• Total fees: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
• CME Futures Open Interest: 116,195 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 16 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.58%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied (expected) volatility index, BVIV, since October.
• BVIV has bounced to 59% from 53% on Wednesday, and further gains may be in the offing.
• That’s because the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits well above the 200-day SMA and is trending north. It shows that the near-term trend is up.
• Heightened volatility is usually a feature of a bear market.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), -2.78% at $192 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.66 (-1.87%), -2.70% at $132.00
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.40 (-3.65%), -4.46% at $7.07
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.02 (-2.34%), -3.79% at $9.64
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.06 (-0.93%), -6.59% at $0.99
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$52 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.21 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$42 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.76 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Crypto prices have surged on Monday on news that U.S. President Trump said to escalate attacks against Iran.

Trump said in a Truth Social post that the two countries held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

Attacks against Iran’s infrastructure will be postponed for a five day period, Trump said in the post.

Bitcoin BTC$68,358.29 rebounded almost 5% above $71,000 in the early morning U.S. hours on the news after sinking below $68,000 overnight. Ether (ETH), DOGE$0.09045, solana (SOL and Chainlink LINK$8.6549 were up 5% over the past 24 hours as cryptocurrencies jumped across the board

Gold has nearly erased almost all its earlier losses, now down just 1% on the day and rebounding to $4,440 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index, DXY, has slipped to 99.3.

Bond yields have declined globally, with the U.S. 10 year yield falling by 100 basis points to 4.3%.

Meanwhile, WTI crude is down 11% on the day, trading below $88 per barrel, while Brent crude has dropped 8% to around $100 per barrel. Tokenized Brent crude futures saw $62.4 million in liquidations on Hyperliquid. CoinGlass data shows $62.41 million in liquidations on the XYZ:BRENTOIL contract over the past 24 hours, with $61.69 million of that hitting longs and just $717,000 from shorts.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is up 2%, while Coinbase (COIN) and IREN (IREN) have also gained around 2% each.

Trump’s five-day postponement doesn’t end the war, however, as Iran continues to strike targets across the Gulf.
Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, is up more than 3% in pre-market trading.

Bitcoin (BTC) moved lower on Monday as traders reacted to new pressure from the Middle East crisis and a weaker tone across risk assets. The asset fell below $67,500 earlier in the day before recovering part of the loss, while most major altcoins also traded in the red.

Bitcoin started last week on a stronger note and climbed above $76,000 on Tuesday, marking its highest level in about six weeks. That rally faded later in the week as traders reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation and uncertainty. The Fed left rates unchanged on March 18 and said inflation is likely to rise in the near term.

Selling pressure grew again over the weekend as the market focused on the Middle East conflict. Rising war risks and higher oil prices pushed investors away from risk assets, while U.S. stock futures also fell as markets assessed new threats tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Live market data showed Bitcoin trading at $68,435 after dropping as low as $67,436 during the session. That intraday low placed the asset at its weakest level in roughly two weeks before buyers pushed it back above $68,000.

The market remains sensitive to macro news. Bitcoin fell to about $67,806 as crypto prices tracked the wider risk-off move linked to the Middle East conflict. The report said the drop came as oil prices stayed high and investors reduced exposure to volatile assets.

Major altcoins follow bitcoin lower

Ethereum (ETH) also moved down during the same period. Live market data showed ETH at $2,044 after falling to an intraday low of $2,026. XRP traded at $1.37, Solana at $85.80, and Dogecoin at $0.0898, with all of them posting daily losses.

The broad decline matched the tone across the rest of the crypto market. Reports on Monday said traders had reduced long exposure as geopolitical risk increased. That shift left several large-cap tokens under pressure and limited the rebound seen late on Sunday.

While most large tokens moved lower, SIREN continued to trade against the wider trend. CoinMarketCap data showed the BNB Chain-based token reached a record high of $3.83 on March 22 before pulling back. The same page showed the token remained far above its earlier levels despite the latest retracement.

With just over a week left in the month of March, bitcoin is narrowly on track to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up around 2% on the month, holding above $68,000. However, a late pullback would see bitcoin close six consecutive months in the red, matching the longest negative streak on record, last seen between August 2018 and January 2019.

From a technical standpoint, the 200-week moving average, (200WMA), remains a key level to watch. This metric, which tracks bitcoin’s long-term trend by averaging its closing price over the past 200 weeks, has historically acted as strong support during bear markets.

In the current cycle, the 200WMA sits near $59,000. bitcoin dropped to as low as $60,000 in early February and has since consolidated above this level for nearly two months, suggesting continued strength at this key support. Notably, the 2022 bear market remains the only cycle where bitcoin spent a prolonged stretch below the 200WMA, from June through December.

Beyond USD price action, bitcoin is also beginning to show relative strength against gold. It is on track to post its first positive monthly candle versus gold in eight months, with the bitcoin to gold ratio currently around 16 ounces. Gold, meanwhile, is trading near $4,200 after recently dropping towards $4,000, 5% down on the day. Gold is now down over 25% from its January all time high, wiping out $7.5 trillion in market cap value.

Historically, each cycle has seen smaller drawdowns in the bitcoin to gold ratio from its peak. In this cycle, bitcoin declined roughly 71% against gold from its all-time high in December 2024. These peak to trough cycles have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting the current downturn may be over denominated in this ratio.

If bitcoin can maintain support above the 200WMA while regaining strength against gold, it would reinforce the view that the broader uptrend remains intact.

Bitcoin BTC$68,503.48 is trading near $68,250, returning to a price range that dates back to early February after multiple failed attempts to convincingly surpass $75,000.

The most recent selloff occurred on Saturday, after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

The weekend price action led to a CME gap — the difference between the price of bitcoin when futures on the exchange end the week on Friday and when they resume trading on Sunday evening. That gap would be filled if bitcoin recovers to $70,000 on Monday.

Gold and silver took another leg down on Monday with January’s record highs now seemingly confirmed as a result of speculative mania rather than a genuine safe-haven move.

In contrast, the Dollar Index (DXY) is back trading above 100, buoyed by inflation fears and a halt to the Fed’s interest-rate-cutting cycle.

The altcoin market has underperformed bitcoin since midnight UTC, with decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens ETHFI, HYPE and SKY losing around 3% while BTC is in the black after falling on Saturday and Sunday.

Derivatives positioning

• Over $400 million worth of leveraged crypto futures bets have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. More than $280 million were longs, the most since Feb. 25, a sign bullish bets have taken a sizeable hit due to bitcoin’s Sunday drop.
• Open interest (OI) in futures tied to gold token PAXG has increased 4% in 24 hours as investors pulled capital from futures on major cryptocurrencies, including BTC. Ether’s OI increased by just under 1%.
• On decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, Brent crude, WTI crude, gold and silver perpetuals rank among the top 10 perpetual contracts by open interest, surpassing major tokens such as XRP. Volume profiles show a similar bias for traditional commodities.
• Funding rates paint a mixed picture of the market sentiment. Traders seem to be chasing bearish exposure in tokens such as XRP, BNB, SOL, TRX, DOGE and ADA, as evidenced by their negative funding rates. Meanwhile, rates for BTC, BCH, HYPe, XMR, and LINK remain positive, indicating strong sentiment.
• BCH and LINK also boast a positive 24-hour cumulative volume delta. This, coupled with positive funding rates, points to sustained net buying pressure, with leveraged traders positioning for further upside in both tokens.
• BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has bounced to 60% from 53% on Wednesday, indicating renewed uncertainty and fear as the Iran war drags on and major banks point to a sustained oil price rally ahead.
• Ether’s volatility index, EVIV, jumped to 84% on Sunday, the highest since early February.
• On Deribit, BTC put options are priced at a premium of eight volatility points to call options out to the June-end expiry. This indicates a strong demand for hedging against potential price declines.
• Block flows featured an outsized demand for BTC put spreads, a bearish strategy and ETH straddles, a bet on volatility.

Token talk

• CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the worst-performing benchmark on Monday, losing 0.75% since midnight UTC, while the CDMEME and SCPXC are down by around 0.4%
• Privacy tokens bucked the bearish trend, with DASH, NIGHT, and XMR all rising by 3% to 5% over the past 24 hours. The sector performed well at the tail end of 2025, buoyed by improving sentiment around anonymous transactions and improved regulatory clarity.
• CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index is at 49/100, receding slightly from last week’s high of 53, but substantially higher than last month, when it dipped to 22.
• One reason to be optimistic is the average relative strength index (RSI), which is currently in “oversold” territory, suggesting a bounce for several altcoins could be on the cards this week.

Key Points

• Mark Zuckerberg is creating a personal AI executive assistant to streamline information access and minimize reliance on middle management
• The AI system is currently operational in its early stages and aims to flatten organizational hierarchies
• Meta is deploying enterprise AI solutions across its approximately 78,000 employees, featuring MyClaw and Second Brain (powered by Anthropic’s Claude)
• META shares started trading at $593.66, declining roughly 2.1%, notwithstanding impressive Q4 results (EPS $8.88 versus $8.16 forecast, revenue increased 23.8% YoY)
• Executive stock sales persist, with COO Javier Oliván and Director Robert Kimmitt both offloading shares on March 16th at approximately $632

Mark Zuckerberg is constructing an artificial intelligence assistant designed to support his leadership at Meta — and this isn’t speculative fiction. The Wall Street Journal disclosed this past Sunday that Meta’s chief executive is actively utilizing a preliminary version of this system to access company information more efficiently, eliminating the requirement for multiple staff layers to fulfill such requests.

This AI assistant represents a component of Meta’s comprehensive initiative to integrate agentic artificial intelligence throughout its entire organizational structure. Far from being an isolated trial, this development embodies a company-wide transformation that Zuckerberg has been signaling for more than twelve months.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

During Meta’s January quarterly earnings conference call, Zuckerberg identified 2026 as the pivotal year when artificial intelligence would begin substantially transforming the company’s internal operations. This executive AI assistant directly implements that strategic vision.

The system enables Zuckerberg to obtain internal company data more rapidly without channeling requests through numerous departments. Initial implementation indicates it’s already accelerating executive-level decision-making processes.

Meta’s workforce of approximately 78,000 employees is simultaneously gaining access to novel AI-powered tools. MyClaw provides staff members with entry to internal documentation, communication histories, and collaboration platforms, while also facilitating connections with AI agents or human colleagues.

Another application, designated Second Brain, was developed utilizing Anthropic’s Claude. This tool operates as an artificial intelligence executive assistant for staff members — assisting with task organization and rapidly surfacing pertinent information.

AI Systems Designed to Reduce Organizational Hierarchy

The underlying strategy focuses on achieving greater productivity with reduced administrative overhead. Meta aims to function more similarly to AI-first startup companies, which typically maintain leaner operational structures than established technology corporations.

By equipping individual contributors with AI-powered tools, Meta seeks to minimize the coordination stages between conceptualization and implementation. Reducing handoff points inherently decreases the personnel required to oversee those transitions.

This approach aligns with Zuckerberg’s earlier articulated objective of reducing team hierarchies. The executive AI assistant arguably represents the most prominent manifestation of this philosophy being implemented at the organization’s highest levels.

Despite considerable internal progress on artificial intelligence initiatives, META stock began Monday’s session at $593.66, declining approximately 2.1%. The shares are trading substantially beneath their 50-day moving average of $649.23 and their 200-day average of $672.42.

This decline occurred despite exceptional Q4 financial performance. Meta delivered EPS of $8.88, surpassing the $8.16 analyst consensus by $0.72. Revenue reached $59.89 billion, representing a 23.8% year-over-year increase.

Executive Stock Sales Create Additional Headwinds

Portion of the stock pressure may be attributable to insider transaction activity. On March 16th, COO Javier Oliván divested 926 shares at $632.02, decreasing his position by 6.1%. Director Robert Kimmitt sold 580 shares on the identical date at the same price point, reducing his holdings by 11.58%.

Throughout the preceding three months, company insiders have collectively sold $103.4 million in stock. This represents a significant overhang for shares already trading beneath their moving averages.

Wall Street analyst perspective remains predominantly optimistic. The consensus price target stands at $846.63, supported by 39 buy recommendations and merely 7 hold ratings. Evercore recently elevated its target to $900, while both Guggenheim and Mizuho adjusted their targets to $850.

QP Wealth Management LLC additionally revealed a fresh position comprising 6,103 shares valued at approximately $4 million, establishing META as its seventh-largest holding representing 3.6% of the portfolio.

The stock maintains a 52-week trading range between $479.80 and $796.25, and currently trades at a P/E ratio of 25.26 with a market capitalization of roughly $1.50 trillion.

As the XAU/USD chart indicates, today, shortly after the start of the trading week, gold fell below $4,150 (the low of the year). The last time prices were at this level was in early December 2025, before the rally towards the all-time high.

Why Is Gold Declining?

Gold prices are being pressured by a combination of factors, including:

→ expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer;
→ rising inflation risks driven by elevated oil prices.

In such conditions, market participants may shift capital into bonds, which appear more attractive than gold, as the metal does not generate yield.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

On the morning of 16 March, while analysing gold’s price movements, we identified a sequence of lower highs and lower lows (A–B–C–D–E). In addition:
→ key technical support levels were broken;
→ the outline of a descending channel was established;
→ we suggested that if bears maintained control, the price could move towards the lower boundary of the channel.

As the XAU/USD chart shows, by 18 March a renewed bearish impulse had emerged. Price not only declined towards the lower boundary (as marked by the arrow) but also broke below it, providing grounds to expand the descending channel. However, the lower boundary of the extended channel has so far held against selling pressure.

The current situation appears highly stressed:
→ from the March high, gold has lost around 25%;
→ media reports point to the worst week since 1983;
→ virtually any oscillator indicates strong oversold conditions;
→ the ATR indicator has surged to extremely high levels, which may signal cascading liquidations of long positions.

In this environment, traders should take into account the heightened volatility in gold prices in order to manage risk more effectively. A slowdown in the decline cannot be ruled out, supported by:
→ the proximity of the psychological $4,000 level;
→ an elevated geopolitical backdrop, primarily driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

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Key Takeaways

• Faraday Future (FFAI) has received confirmation that the SEC investigation has concluded without any enforcement action against the company or individuals involved.
• The investigation focused on the company’s 2021 SPAC merger and PIPE financing transactions, including previously issued Wells Notices that have now been resolved without charges.
• Management says the company can now concentrate on operational priorities and explore strategic funding opportunities and partnerships.
• AIxCrypto (AIXC), with FFAI as its majority controlling shareholder, noted the conclusion eliminates significant regulatory uncertainty.
• AIXC shares surged approximately 70% during premarket trading hours following the announcement.

Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFAI) just received potentially its most significant positive development in recent memory. The Securities and Exchange Commission has officially terminated its inquiry into the electric vehicle company without pursuing any enforcement measures against FFAI or its leadership team.

Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., FFAI

The regulatory agency had previously delivered Wells Notices connected to FFAI’s 2021 private investment in public equity (PIPE) deal and its business combination through a special purpose acquisition company. Wells Notices represent formal indications that SEC staff may recommend enforcement proceedings — making a no-action conclusion particularly significant.

The electric vehicle manufacturer confirmed the development through an official disclosure, noting that the SEC’s extensive investigation spanning multiple years has reached its conclusion.

According to FFAI’s announcement, the company now operates with “regulatory clarity” and can dedicate full attention to core operational activities. Management emphasized the ability to pursue strategic capital raises and forge new business partnerships moving forward.

This represents a considerably clearer path than the company has enjoyed recently.

AIxCrypto’s Response

AIxCrypto (AIXC), where FFAI holds a majority controlling stake, issued its own acknowledgment of the SEC’s determination. The firm indicated that this resolution eliminates uncertainty and creates a more favorable environment for executing its strategic roadmap.

AIXC reiterated commitment to its three-tier ecosystem architecture spanning infrastructure, protocol, and application components. This encompasses development in AI Agents, Embodied AI technologies, blockchain-based coordination systems, and digital connectivity linked to tangible assets.

Market participants responded decisively. AIXC stock rocketed approximately 70% higher in premarket session following the disclosure.

FFAI shares, meanwhile, were trading down 10.34% at publication time, potentially indicating that some market participants had already anticipated a favorable resolution or are responding to broader factors affecting the security.

Investigation Scope and Context

The SEC’s inquiry examined transactions associated with FFAI’s public market entry. The company went public through a SPAC transaction in 2021, a pathway that attracted considerable regulatory examination throughout the electric vehicle industry.

PIPE financing — representing private capital invested in public companies — constituted another component of the SEC’s review. Such arrangements proliferated during the SPAC market surge and subsequently drew increased regulatory oversight.

The delivery of Wells Notices had signaled the investigation had reached an advanced phase, rendering the no-enforcement determination a particularly meaningful outcome for the organization.

FFAI emphasized that with regulatory proceedings concluded, the company stands ready to execute on business objectives without the burden of pending regulatory matters.

The 70% premarket surge in AIXC demonstrates the market’s perception of how intimately that company’s prospects were connected to the regulatory standing of its majority owner.

Based on current available data, no enforcement measures have been pursued against FFAI, its management team, or any associated individuals regarding this investigation.

As the AUD/USD chart indicates, the Australian dollar is showing weakness against the US dollar at the start of the week. Notably, we are seeing a bearish breakout below the lower boundary of an important ascending channel that had been in place since December 2025.

Among the key bearish factors:

→ increased demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid the United States’ involvement in large-scale military actions against Iran. US President Donald Trump has threatened strikes on Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while Tehran has warned of potential attacks on key US and Israeli facilities;

→ a decline in Asian equity markets, which are sensitive to disruptions in energy supplies from the Middle East. In turn, the value of the Australian dollar is closely tied to commodity exports from Australia to China;

→ traders’ expectations ahead of inflation data due to be released on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

On 24 February, we confirmed the validity of the ascending channel, within which we:
→ identified signs of weakness during the formation of highs A and B;
→ suggested a potential break below the channel median with a move towards the psychological level of 0.7000.

Indeed, the price failed to surpass high B and moved into the lower half of the channel in early March. As shown by the first arrow, on 3 March it briefly dipped below the psychological 0.7000 level before quickly rebounding, signalling strong demand.

However, the underlying weakness near highs A and B persisted. Between 10–12 March, bulls attempted to break through these resistance levels but failed to hold above the new high. From a Smart Money Concept perspective, this resembles a liquidity grab in the buy-side liquidity (BSL) zone — a bearish signal.

In the short term, a rebound from the March low (around 0.6950) is possible. However, when considering a broader outlook, traders should not rule out:
→ the 0.7000 level turning into resistance;
→ further development of a downward trend within an increasingly well-defined descending channel.

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