News Beat
Budget 2025: What to expect from Rachel Reeves’ autumn statement
Rachel Reeves is poised to deliver her Budget this week, with intense speculation surrounding potential tax increases designed to stabilise the nation’s finances.
The chancellor is anticipated to outline measures addressing a significant public funds deficit and establishing a more robust financial reserve, aiming to reduce future demands on taxpayers.
These proposals are expected to be announced at approximately 12:30pm on Wednesday, 26 November.
Income tax
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reportedly abandoned plans for a significant income tax hike, a move that would have broken manifesto pledges.
This U-turn follows less pessimistic forecasts received by the Treasury from the budget watchdog, leading to the measure being dropped from what Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle described as the “hokey cokey budget”.
Instead, Ms Reeves is now said to be favouring an extension of the existing freeze on income tax thresholds.
Should this be implemented alongside a freeze on National Insurance thresholds, it could generate an estimated £8.3 billion annually for the Exchequer by 2029/30.
By not increasing the thresholds, she will benefit from a process called “fiscal drag”, where as wages go up people are dragged into paying tax for the first time or shifted into a higher rate.
Cash ISAs
Sources familiar with Budget preparations have told the Financial Times that Reeves will cut the annual cash ISA limit from £20,000 to £12,000 in order to push more households to invest their savings into the UK stock market.
Tweaking VAT
While the chancellor has reportedly back-tracked on proposals to increase income tax in some way, ministers’ passive language on manifesto commitments has led to some speculation that the chancellor may instead look at some type of increase to VAT.
It is unlikely that the chancellor will raise the headline rate of VAT, which is currently charged at 20 per cent on most products and services. The levy is generally passed on to customers, and given recent warnings over living standards and inflation, it would mean more difficulty for already struggling households.
A different route the chancellor could take – arguably still in line with Labour’s commitments – would be to make the rate of VAT uniform.
For instance, food is one of the more complicated areas for the tax, with products like confectionery, hot food and ice cream attracting standard VAT, while meat, vegetables and juice do not.
Rail fares
Rail fares will be frozen in the Budget, saving commuters on pricier routes more than £300 a year.
It is one of a series of measures aimed at easing the cost of living despite the increased tax burden many people and businesses are likely to face.
Prescriptions
The cost of an NHS prescription in England will be frozen at £9.90.
Mansion tax
Several versions of a ‘mansion tax’ have been floated in the build up to the Budget. This would see owners of high-value properties hit with a new charge.
If the proposals are announced, the version understood to be most favoured by the Treasury is a simple levy placed on owners of properties worth at least £2m. These individuals would incur an annual charge of 1 per cent of the amount over that threshold – meaning a £10,000-a-year fee for homes worth £3m.
It is understood that revaluations of the top three council tax bands could take place to assess these values, and that the cost can be deferred until the homeowner dies or moves house to avoid forcing them to sell up.
Tax for electric vehicles
The Chancellor is thought to be considering a 3p per mile tax for EVs as she seeks to protect revenues as people shift away from petrol and diesel – and the fuel duty that brings in to the Exchequer.
EV buyer subsidy
She will add £1.3 billion to a grant that knocks up to £3,750 off the price of an electric vehicle as part of a package that will also see £200 million go towards the rollout of charging points.
Pensions – salary sacrifice and tax relief
The Chancellor might introduce limits on how much employees can stash in their pensions under salary sacrifice schemes before it becomes subject to national insurance.
Reports suggest she could cap this at £2,000 a year, which would reduce how much people put away in their pension pots and put a dent in take-home pay for those who use the scheme to stay in a lower tax band.
Another widely speculated plan would see the higher rates of pension tax relief cut. This is the policy that effectively boosts savers’ contributions with a top-up from HMRC.
Savers who pay basic rate tax get a 20 per cent boost to their pension contributions, while higher rate taxpayers get 40 per cent and additional rate earners get 45 per cent. This essentially ensure that no tax is paid on the contributions.
The rumoured proposal would see this relief cut back for high earners, meaning everyone gets pension tax relief at a flat rate of 20 per cent, regardless of their income tax bracket.
Two-child benefit cap
As pressure has piled up, Ms Reeves is expected to scrap the limit that restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.
Estimates vary on how much this would cost, with the Resolution Foundation estimating around £3.5 billion by the end of this Parliament (2029/30), while the Child Poverty Action Group and Joseph Rowntree Foundation have lower calculations of around £3 billion by then.
Crackdown on benefits fraud
Ms Reeves will seek to raise £1.2 billion by March 2031 by extending a crackdown on fraudulent and mistaken universal credit payments via the targeted case review (TCR) scheme.
