Crypto World
Trump documents meltdown over Iran war on Truth Social
Truth Social owner, Trump Media and Technology Group, has diversified into cryptocurrency and is planning to launch both exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and prediction markets. Truth Social also one of the most important places to keep up to date with Donald Trump’s personal thoughts about the ongoing actions of his administration, including in Iran.
On February 28, US forces in coalition with Israel, began a war with Iran.
The Trump administration has been inconsistent in describing its motivations for this war, at points claiming it was because of Iran attempting to create a nuclear weapon.
However, undercutting that explanation is the fact that in June of last year, Trump stated unequivocally that the strikes that month were intended to result in the “destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat,” and were “a spectacular military success.”
He also posted following that strike to say, “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!”
There’s currently a war. Not only that, it’s an arguably unconstitutional war that lacks any formal declaration, a power reserved for Congress.
Adding to the strangeness surrounding the conflict are a variety of troubling claims posted by Trump on Truth Social.
All transcriptions of Trump’s messages seen below are reproduced exactly as he wrote them and all emphasis is his.
February 28
The day the conflict started, Trump posted repeatedly on Truth Social.
In one message, he reposted an article from the website Just The News, which makes the extraordinary claim that “Iran tried to interfere in 2020, 2024 elections to stop Trump, and now faces renewed war with United States.”
To support this claim, Just The News references Trump’s campaign announcement claim that Iran had planned to assassinate him, as well as a Semafor report that Trump FBI appointee Kash Patel had been targeted by an Iranian cyberattack.
It’s not clear if Trump believes the war is in retaliation for this, or if it’s supposed to be about nuclear weapons, or because Iran was a state sponsor of terrorism, or because of some vague failure of the Democrats.
Another post from the same day, which announced the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, claimed that his death was some form of justice, despite the fact that Khamenei wasn’t tried in any court.
That same post made the claim that Iran “has been, in only one day, very much destroyed and, even, obliterated.”
Hours later, Trump posted the claim that should Iran respond, the United States “WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!”
It’s important to note that the US is the only nation on Earth to use nuclear weapons in combat, and Trump is promising to go even further.
March 1
The second day of the war brought just one post from the president, in which he made the claim that “we have destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships, some of them relatively large and important.
“We are going after the rest — They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also! In a different attack, we largely destroyed their Naval Headquarters.”
He signed off with a sarcastic “Other than that, their Navy is doing very well!”
March 2
March 2, the third day of this undeclared war, saw Trump repeatedly take to his personal social media site.
In his first post, he complained about the Democrats, apparently convincing himself that “they are only complaining BECAUSE I DID IT and, if I didn’t do it, they would be screaming — Why didn’t “TRUMP” attack Iran, he should do it, IMMEDIATELY?”
The rest of his post is a complaint about members of the Democratic Party performing a milquetoast protest during his State of the Union, wherein they didn’t stand during the proceedings.
This post was followed by one that echoed Shakespearean concerns about a lady who “doth protest too much.”
Trump declared, “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better — As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons.
“Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries finest arms!)”
The rest of the post sees Trump complaining about previous arms and munitions that had been provided to Ukraine as part of congressionally approved aid for Ukraine to withstand Russia’s illegal and unethical war of conquest.
March 3
On March 3, Trump declared that Iran’s “air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said “Too Late!””
This was several days after he declared that Iran had been obliterated.
This post was followed by another in which Trump noted that “more than 9,000 Americans have safely returned home from the Middle East” and encouraged other people who might be endangered by the ongoing war to register with the State Department.
After this near acknowledgement that his war had endangered Americans, there were several days where Trump’s posts weren’t about the war he started.
March 6
On March 6, Trump announced to the “obliterated” Iran that “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
This was followed by another acknowledgement that the US needed to evacuate Americans, noting, “We are moving thousands of people out of various Countries throughout the Middle East.”
Confusingly, considering this is a public post, he also claimed that it was “being done quietly.”
March 7
March 7 brought with it more confusing claims from Trump, including that “Iran, which is being beat to HELL, has apologized and surrendered to its Middle East neighbors, and promised that it will not shoot at them anymore.”
According to Trump, “This promise was only made because of the relentless U.S. and Israeli attack.”
This was followed by a threat that “Today Iran will be hit very hard!”
More troublingly, Trump indicated a willingness to target “areas and groups of people that were not considered for targeting up until this moment in time.”
Later, he noted, “The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East.”
However, Trump then informed Prime Minister Keir Starmer that “we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!”
March 8
On March 8, Trump wanted to comfort Americans worried about the surge in oil prices and so claimed that these short term increases would “drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over.”
This comes more than a week after Iran was supposedly “obliterated” and months after the “very successful” June strikes.
Trump added that “ONLY FOOLS” would believe that these oil prices wouldn’t drop rapidly.
March 9
The very next day, Trump threatened Iran, claiming “they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far” if they did “anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz.”
March 10
The next day, he threatened Iran again, saying that “If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.
“If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! Additionally, we are using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers to permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait.”
He concluded, “They will be dealt with quickly and violently. BEWARE!”
This was followed by a claim that the US had “hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships.”
It’s not clear what impact this might have had on active mine laying and/or ships.
March 12
March 12 was a busy day for the “leader of the free world.” Nevertheless, he continued to post updates on an undeclared war on a social media platform he continued to own while serving as president.
This included making the claim that the US benefits when oil prices go up, but he clarified that this wasn’t his motivation.
His motivation was, apparently, “stoping [sic] an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World.”
This was followed by a thinly-veiled threat to the Iranian National Soccer Team.
Trump warned that they’re welcome at the World Cup but noted that he doesn’t “believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety.”
Shortly after, Trump announced that “All Players, Officials, and Fans will be treated like the ‘STARS’ that they are!”
Following that, Trump gave in to nostalgia and posted an old picture of him in his military school uniform.
It’s important to include the context that when Trump was drafted in Vietnam, he was exempted because of a case of bone spurs.
Additionally, he reportedly described Americans who died in conflict as “losers” and “suckers.”
Following this post from his schoolboy days, Trump returned to the topic of the nation he had apparently obliterated nearly two weeks ago.
He was now claiming that “We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise, yet, if you read the Failing New York Times, you would incorrectly think that we are not winning.
“Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth. We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time — Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today.
“They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so!”
March 13
The two week anniversary of the obliteration of Iran, March 13, saw Trump announce that “the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island.”
In this same post, Trump expressed his belief that “Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much!”
This was followed by a subsequent post in which Trump claimed, “Iran had plans of taking over the entire Middle East, and completely obliterating Israel. JUST LIKE IRAN ITSELF, THOSE PLANS ARE NOW DEAD!”
He then posted a video that had the text “UNCLASSIFIED” superimposed on top and appeared to depict the US military killing people.
Subsequently, Trump posted his claim that Iran “is totally defeated and wants a deal — But not a deal that I would accept!”
March 14
The next day, Trump continued to whinge about the media, claiming that there was “an intentionally misleading headline” about “the five tanker planes that were supposedly struck down at an Airport in Saudi Arabia, and of no further use.”
He claimed, “In actuality, the Base was hit a few days ago, but the planes were not ‘struck’ or ‘destroyed.’ Four of the five had virtually no damage, and are already back in service. One had slightly more damage, but will be in the air shortly.”
This was followed by a post in which Trump claimed that “Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe.”
This came several days after he informed Prime Minister Starmer that the UK would not need to send war ships because we had already won the war.
This was followed by another post in which he explained that “The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A LOT!
“The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.”
March 15
The next day, the whinge-fest about the media continued with Trump claiming that “Iran has long been known as a Master of Media Manipulation and Public Relations. They are Militarily ineffective and weak, but are really good at ‘feeding’ the very appreciative Fake News Media false information.”
This was followed by the claim that Iran is using artificial intelligence to fool the media and that this might mean “that those Media Outlets that generated it should be brought up on Charges for TREASON for the dissemination of false information!”
Trump followed this by claiming that he’d sic Brendan Carr, the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, on these organizations, threatening their broadcast licenses.
This would be an unconstitutional violation of the first amendment, but seemingly so is his war.
March 17
On March 17, Trump returned to the contentious issue of the allies of the US.
Trump claimed that “The United States has been informed by most of our NATO ‘Allies’ that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East.”
This is a strange thing for him to post after claiming that the US didn’t need allies to get involved because the war was won.
Anyways, Trump used this to begin an assault on NATO in which he claimed that the other members “will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need.”
The post ended by once again channeling the Shakespearean lady who doth protest, “speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”
March 18
The next day, Trump decided to remind his 12 million followers that “for all of those absolute ‘fools’ out there, Iran is considered, by everyone, to be the NUMBER ONE STATE SPONSOR OF TERROR. We are rapidly putting them out of business!”
This came nearly three weeks after he claimed the nation was obliterated.
Subsequently, Trump returned to his unproductive relationship with his allies, speculating about “what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Strait?’ That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!”
This again comes after he stated that we didn’t need the assistance of any allies.
Trump returned to this topic again to share a New York Post opinion piece that claimed that “US allies need to get a grip — step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz.”
Trump then described how US ally and coalition partner, “Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran.
“A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen.”
Apparently, even when our allies do agree to help with the military operations, the US is still left in the dark.
Trump added that “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar – In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”
He then threatened, “I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so.”
March 20
On March 20, Trump once again returned to his problematic relationship with allies, claiming that “Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER!”
He added that these allies “complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices.
“So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!”
After this, he claimed that “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran.”
This post also included another claim about the cooperation of US allies, this time that “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!
“If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”
This was a drastic change of direction from when Trump told Prime Minister Starmer that the US did not need and did not want UK warships to help secure the Strait.
March 21
On March 21, Trump once again reiterated his belief that victory was effectively achieved.
He claimed that the United States was “weeks ahead of schedule” and that Iran’s “leadership is gone, their navy and air force are dead, they have absolutely no defense, and they want to make a deal.”
Despite the fact that Iran’s navy and air force were purportedly dead, Trump had to return to his social media platform a short while later to state that “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”
March 22
The next day, Trump added his thoughts about the progress of the war, claiming it was evidence of “PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, TO PUT IT MILDLY!!!”
March 23
On March 23, Trump again suggested that the war is need an end, posting that “I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
“BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.”
It’s important to remember that on March 6, Trump claimed that “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
Also, despite the claim that there would be no further military strikes, strikes have continued.
The next day, March 24, Trump announced that Iran was “gonna make a deal” and claimed that the country “gave us a present…a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.”
On March 6, Trump had posted that the only deal possible was “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
Iran has denied that it intends to make a deal.
Oil and bitcoin prices
This war has led the price of both bitcoin (BTC) and oil to increase, with oil appreciating much more substantially than BTC.
West Texas Intermediate, one of the benchmark oil markets, was trading for approximately $72 per barrel on March 2, and now trades for approximately $88 a barrel, an increase of approximately 21.5%.
BTC, meanwhile, was trading for slightly less than $66,000 on February 28 and now trades for approximately $71,000, an increase of approximately 9%.
Despite the fact that it’s been more than three weeks since Trump claimed that Iran was “obliterated,” the price of oil has stayed substantially higher, despite Trump’s insistence that oil prices “will drop rapidly” once the nuclear threat is dealt with.
Broadly, the president has been wildly inconsistent in his pronouncements about his war, vacillating between proclamations that the war is done, that the enemy will be struck incredibly hard (despite the war being done), that a deal will never be accepted, that a deal is almost ready, that no allies are necessary, and that allies will be responsible for ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
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Crypto World
Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Turns Positive, Signaling Fresh Capital Inflows After February Slump
TLDR:
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- Bitcoin’s realized cap monthly growth has returned to +0.25%, ending a steep -2.6% decline recorded in February 2025.
- The February correction triggered realized losses as investors who bought BTC at higher prices exited their positions.
- The downturn reflected a weak-to-strong hands transfer, with patient buyers absorbing supply from loss-realizing sellers.
- Analysts now watch whether rising profit-taking will slow recovery or if fresh demand will sustain the positive cap trend.
- Bitcoin’s realized cap monthly growth has returned to +0.25%, ending a steep -2.6% decline recorded in February 2025.
Bitcoin’s realized cap has moved back into positive monthly growth, posting a gain of +0.25% after a steep decline.
This shift follows a difficult correction period that pushed the metric to -2.6% in February. The realized cap tracks the difference between realized profits and realized losses in the market.
It is considered one of the clearest measures of capital movement. Analysts are now watching closely to see whether the trend can hold as market conditions improve.
Realized Cap Drop Reflected Investor Losses During Correction
The February decline in Bitcoin’s realized cap came as investors sold holdings at a loss. Many of those investors had purchased BTC at higher price levels earlier in the cycle. As selling pressure grew, the realized cap pulled back sharply, reflecting capital destruction in the market.
Crypto analyst Darkfost explained the pattern on X, noting that the realized cap measures “the difference between realized profits and realized losses.” During the downturn, this balance tilted heavily toward losses. That shift dragged the monthly growth rate deep into negative territory.
The correction phase also produced a shift in ownership. Investors unwilling to absorb further losses exited their positions and transferred holdings to buyers at lower prices.
This process is commonly referred to as a transfer from weak hands to strong hands. It is a pattern that has appeared in previous Bitcoin market cycles.
Even so, overall sentiment during the correction remained cautious. New capital did not immediately return to the market after prices fell. Buyers waited for valuations to reach levels they considered attractive before committing fresh funds to Bitcoin.
Positive Shift Suggests New Capital Is Returning to Bitcoin
Now that the realized cap has turned positive again, the market dynamic appears to be changing. According to Darkfost, “investor sentiment is improving as capital begins flowing back into the market.”
That change is reflected in the monthly growth figure moving above zero for the first time since the downturn.
The +0.25% reading is modest on its own. However, coming directly after a -2.6% monthly decline, it carries weight as a directional shift. Analysts tend to look at this kind of recovery as an early sign that buyers are returning with confidence.
Capital inflows at this stage often reflect improved sentiment among both retail and institutional participants. When new money enters the market, it tends to push realized profits higher. That, in turn, supports further growth in the realized cap over subsequent months.
The central question, as Darkfost noted, is whether this recovery can continue as more investors take profits. If selling pressure increases alongside rising prices, the growth rate could stall again. However, if demand absorbs that supply, the realized cap is likely to continue its upward trend.
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has dropped more than 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) over the last 12 months, a slide that market observers say could have further to run if technical and on-chain signals play out. The underperformance comes as Bitcoin continues to attract corporate interest and mainstream adoption, while Ethereum faces a mix of liquidity and momentum headwinds that have tempered its rally narratives.
Key takeaways:
- ETH/BTC remains trapped below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped breakouts since 2022, with a potential 40% downside target toward 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists into 2026.
- Binance ETH reserves climbed to 3.62 million ETH as of May, about 24.6% of all Ether held on exchanges, signaling higher near-term selling risk, according to CryptoQuant data.
- Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, highlighting divergent exchange liquidity trends between the two assets.
- The broader market narrative, including Ethereum’s lingering “ultrasound money” momentum and BTC’s growing institutional interest, continues to shape relative performance and risk sentiment.
ETH-BTC: technical setup points to extended weakness
ETH/BTC has remained entrenched beneath a long-standing descending trend line that has constrained every major breakout since 2022. The pattern mirrors a similar setup that preceded the steep drop from late 2024 into 2025, suggesting the same structural pressure could reassert itself if BTC and ETH fail to find fresh demand.
In August 2025, ETH/BTC briefly retested the trend line, only to be repelled at a convergence zone that included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month exponential moving average. Since then, the pair slid back below the 20-month moving average, which now acts as a resistance-turned-signal of selling pressure around the 0.034 BTC level.
The chart implies a potential objective around 0.0176 BTC if selling continues, a level that would represent roughly a 40% decline from recent prices and aligns with the 2020 cycle bottom. Traders watching the eth/btc ladder see this as a crucial test of whether Ether can regain tempo or if Bitcoin’s uptrend remains the dominant driver of market risk appetite.
On-chain and exchange signals paint a mixed liquidity picture
On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable divergence in exchange balances between ETH and BTC. Ether reserves on Binance—the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume—have risen to 3.62 million ETH as of May, accounting for about 24.6% of all Ether held on crypto exchanges. This increase in available ETH suggests more supply could be poised for sale if buyers do not absorb it in the current market environment.
In contrast, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, signaling tighter exchange-side liquidity for BTC. The opposite dynamics—rising ETH supply versus diminishing BTC supply on exchanges—help explain, at least in part, the ongoing divergences in price action between the two assets.
Higher exchange balances for ETH often translate into greater near-term selling pressure, especially when demand lacks the vigor to match supply. By contrast, shrinking BTC reserves can reflect a combination of hodling behavior and a rotation of liquidity away from centralized venues, which can give BTC a relative edge when risk sentiment shifts.
These reserve patterns add a practical dimension to the broader narrative: Ether appears more exposed to potential supply-driven downside on exchange rails, while Bitcoin benefits from tighter liquidity and, in some cases, a stronger bid from institutional participants stepping into the market.
Narrative tensions and market context: where the momentum sits
Beyond the charts and on-chain metrics, the fundamental backdrop for Ether remains a topic of debate. For years, Ether’s “ultrasound money” narrative — the idea of a deflationary or steadily scarce asset embedded in Ethereum’s monetary dynamics — helped frame ETH as a better long-term store of value relative to fiat or even BTC in some cycles. However, that narrative has cooled in recent periods, contributing to a prolonged period of lag versus Bitcoin on a relative performance basis.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has benefited from growing corporate engagement and wider adoption into traditional portfolios. Market observers have pointed to evidence of corporate accumulation and strategic participation by institutions as a tailwind for BTC’s price resilience. Notably, retail and institutional access to spot BTC trading, including upcoming offerings and integration into mainstream platforms, continues to shape the adoption trajectory for BTC more than ETH in several market segments.
Recent coverage underscores this asymmetry: corporate players have shown sustained interest in BTC, while Ethereum’s growth narrative has faced headwinds that temper a broad-based upside versus BTC. In parallel, developments such as retail access expansions for spot BTC and ETH trading — including moves from traditional financial firms into crypto markets — remain in focus for readers watching how the market prices risk, liquidity, and opportunity across the digital asset spectrum.
Related commentary has explored how these dynamic shifts could influence capex decisions for developers, liquidity provisioning for exchanges, and the pace of adoption on Layer 2s and decentralized finance ecosystems. As the market absorbs these cross-currents, traders may look for catalysts that could tilt the balance—ranging from further macro normalization to concrete progress on Ethereum’s scaling roadmap and the evolution of centralized exchange liquidity pools.
On balance, the ETH-BTC relationship continues to hinge on a mix of technical barriers, on-chain liquidity signals, and the evolving narrative around what each asset represents to investors and users in different market regimes. While BTC’s path remains susceptible to institutional demand and liquidity dynamics, Ether’s fate will likely be decided by how supply pressure on exchanges interacts with network upgrades, layer-2 maturation, and the broader pace of Ethereum’s ecosystem development.
Readers should watch whether ETH can push through the established trend line, or if the combination of rising ETH supply on major exchanges and continued resistance around key moving averages keeps the pair under pressure. The next price pivot around 0.0176 BTC would not only mark a technical breakpoint but also signal whether Ether can reassert a case for value relative to BTC in the face of shifting liquidity and narrative forces.
The data underpinning these observations draw from CryptoQuant’s exchange-flow analytics, with ETH reserve figures specifically cited for Binance as of May. For anyone tracking the liquidity landscape, these metrics provide a practical lens into where risk might be concentrated in the near term and how institutional and retail behavior could shape the next leg of the crypto cycle.
What unfolds next could hinge on how much buy-side demand returns to ETH in the face of a higher supply ceiling on exchanges and whether BTC’s liquidity backdrop remains supportive as institutional participation continues to expand. Keep an eye on reserve trends, price action around the critical trend line, and any regulatory or product developments that could tilt market sentiment in the coming weeks and months.
Pump.fun traders, after a long stretch of weak performance, are beginning to see a clear turnaround in 2026, according to fresh data from CoinGecko.
Between April 2024 and late 2025, most traders exiting positions on the popular Solana-based meme coin platform ended each month with losses. During this period, the share of profitable wallets rarely crossed the 50% mark and fell as low as 30.1% in June 2025, amid significant underperformance among active participants.
Pump.fun Profitability Improves
The trend began to reverse in early 2026. In February, Pump.fun recorded almost 57% of traders in profit, followed by a sharp rise to 70% in March and 73.3% in April 2026. In April 2026, profits were heavily concentrated at the lower end of the spectrum.
CoinGecko found that the largest cohort, about 2.05 million wallets or 65.1%, earned between $1 and $500. Another 87,000 wallets, or 2.8%, made between $500 and $1,000, while 169,000 wallets, representing 5.4%, booked gains above $1,000.
On the loss side, 793,000 wallets, or around 25%, lost between $1 and $500, while 22,000 wallets (0.7%) lost $500 to $1,000, and 24,000 wallets (0.8%) saw losses of more than $1,000. The data indicated that both gains and losses are largely clustered in small amounts, which “reflects the small-size, high-frequency nature of memecoin trading, where participants typically deploy small amounts of capital.”
The report also noted that the improvement in profitability may be tied to a shakeout of weaker participants, as monthly active wallets fell from a peak of 5.2 million in May 2025 to 1.8 million in December 2025. The subsequent recovery in early 2026 points to a smaller but potentially more experienced trader base returning to the platform.
“This decline can be seen as the exit of the broader retail crowd and subsequent recovery in wallet counts from early 2026 onward implies the return of a more selective, experienced trader base, naturally shifting the profitability distribution in their favour.”
Token Policy Change
Last week, Pump.fun announced it had burned all previously repurchased PUMP tokens and introduced a new buyback-and-burn program funded by 50% of future net revenue. The project said the burned tokens were worth about $370 million and represented 36% of the circulating supply.
It added that, facing trust issues over the longevity of its business, the certainty of buybacks, and how repurchased tokens would be used. According to Pump.fun, the move was meant to address uncertainty through a community-first approach going forward.
The post Solana-Based Meme Coin Launchpad Pump.fun Traders See Turnaround in 2026: CoinGecko appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Bitcoin, Ripple’s token, Solana’s SOL, and several other altcoins made impressive moves over the past few hours, which was rather unexpected given the Sunday market sentiment and lack of major developments.
Interestingly, these recent gains coincided with Donald Trump’s latest message on Iran.
The statement on Truth Social from the POTUS reads that Iran has been “playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years.” He also placed significant blame on former President Barack Obama, saying the situation hit “pay dirt” during his time in office.
“He was not only good to them, he was great, actually going to their side, jettisoning Israel, and all other Allies, and giving Iran a major and very powerful new lease on life. Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and 1.7 Billion Dollars in green cash, flown into Tehran, was handed to them on a silver platter. Every Bank in D.C., Virginia, and Maryland was emptied out — It was so much money that when it arrived, the Iranian Thugs had no idea what to do with it. They had never seen money like this, and never will again. It was taken off the plane in suitcases and satchels, and the Iranians couldn’t believe their luck.”
After also blaming Joe Biden, Trump said Iran will be laughing no longer at the USA. This statement comes after reports that Iran had sent their response to the US’s latest peace proposal. However, there’s no further information as of press time regarding the actual decision.
As mentioned above, many crypto assets are in the green now. Bitcoin’s gains are among the most modest, but the asset still tapped $81,600. XRP has stolen the show from the larger-cap alts, surging by over 5% daily to a multi-week peak of just over $1.50.
SOL has risen to almost $100 after a 3.5% daily increase, ETH is well above $2,350, and ADA has gained over 5% to sit close to $0.29.
The post BTC, XRP on the Move Amid Trump’s Latest Message on Iran: Details appeared first on CryptoPotato.
XRP is trading in the $1.40 range, as on-chain data paints a picture that looks worse than the news headlines are saying. New daily addresses on the XRP Ledger have collapsed by over 80% from 18,000 in December 2024 to just 2,700. Yet institutions are quietly settling tokenized assets on public blockchains in real time.
. @Ripple network activity continues slowing down! — CryptoBusy (@CryptoBusy) May 8, 2026
New wallet creation dropped from 18,000 per day in December 2024 to around 2,700 today.
Active $XRP supply also declined sharply during the same period. pic.twitter.com/hkOGsMmUXL
According to Glassnode data, monthly active supply dropped more than 70% from 7.45 billion XRP to roughly 2 billion XRP. Exchange reserves simultaneously hit historic lows at 12.9 billion XRP, suggesting holders are moving coins to self-custody and not to sell.
Whales have also accumulated 110 million tokens through March, even as retail participation faded. “The network is shifting from retail speculation only to institutional rails,” RedStone co-founder Marcin Kazmierczak notes. “That transition rarely looks pretty in the address chart.”
With institutional XRP interest accelerating, the market is sending mixed signals.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
Can XRP Price Recover to $1.50 With Institutional News?
XRP stabilized between $1.38 and $1.42 over the past 48 hours after a bounce from $1.38 to a high of $1.45. The volume surge is the only genuinely bullish data point on the board right now. Everything else is neutral-to-soft.
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, and CCI are all sitting at neutral readings. Analysts note that “thin participation means rebounds lack follow-through,” which is precisely the problem when network payments risk falling below the 500 million threshold that has historically anchored baseline demand.
Right now, resistance still sits at $1.45; XRP has been grinding against that top without a clean break.
The volume spike is encouraging, but sustained spot demand is what confirms institutional accumulation is absorbing sell pressure.
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Bitcoin Hyper Presale With More Upside Potential
XRP’s current setup offers limited asymmetric upside at a $80B+ market cap. For XRP, a clean double requires institutional inflows at scale that may take years, not weeks. Traders hunting for higher-beta exposure are rotating attention toward earlier-stage infrastructure plays where the entry price hasn’t already priced in the thesis.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning as the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, delivering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution on top of Bitcoin’s security layer.
The project targets Bitcoin’s core bottlenecks directly: slow transactions, high fees, and zero programmability. Its Decentralized Canonical Bridge enables seamless BTC transfers into the fast-execution environment without sacrificing custody trust.
The presale has raised more than $32.6 million at a current price of just a mere $0.0136, with staking rewards already live for early participants. The presale momentum has been building steadily as Bitcoin infrastructure narratives gain traction.
Research Bitcoin Hyper before the presale phase concludes.
The post XRP News: Institutional Adoption Accelerates, Network Activity At Lowest appeared first on Cryptonews.
White House adviser Patrick Witt said it’s possible the Clarity Act becomes law by July 4 while Senator Kirsten Gillibrand pushed for an ethics provision in the market structure bill. Consensus Miami 2026 wrapped up with a fiery debate on the role of prediction markets, and a lot otherwise happened at our first conference in the Sunshine State.
CoinDesk also released the results of a survey it commissioned of 1,000 registered voters on their views toward crypto heading into the 2026 election.
PS: I’ll be at the Bermuda Digital Finance Forum next week. Let’s catch up if you’re there.
You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.
The narrative
White House Executive Director of the President’s Council on Digital Assets Patrick Witt told the audience at Consensus Miami this week that he believed it was possible to have President Donald Trump sign the Clarity Act into law by July 4. The timeline would require a markup this month (which seems very possible), four weeks for the Senate to merge the Banking and Agriculture bills (technically possible), a few weeks for reconciliation with the House (also technically possible) and the House vote (will depend on the House) and finally, the part where the president signs the bill.
Beyond Witt, we heard from various industry participants and policymakers at Consensus Miami. Catch up below.
Why it matters
Look, if you’ve read this newsletter for more than a few weeks, you know the Clarity Act has taken center stage for the last several months. Maybe it’ll happen and we can move on to other things. Maybe not. But there does seem to be more momentum now than there has been in weeks, and so we’ll see — I imagine quite soon — what that means.
Breaking it down
Consensus this year had a number of other sessions with lawmakers, policymakers and lawyers weighing in on everything from what the Clarity Act needs (ethics provisions, per Senator Kirsten Gillibrand) to whether or not prediction markets are gambling (we did not reach a conclusion but it was an excellent debate!).
Some highlights:
CoinDesk also released the results of a survey of registered voters it commissioned from April 21-27. We found that while voters generally don’t care about crypto leading into the 2026 midterm election when facing other issues like the economy and healthcare. This likely isn’t a surprise to anyone.
Voters did overwhelmingly say that they did not want senior government officials to have ties to crypto business interests, a majority said they did not feel comfortable with President Donald Trump’s administration overseeing crypto (though just 17% of voters said they knew he and his family had co-founded World Liberty Financial). Voters also overwhelmingly favored banks to crypto projects when asked which was more likely to bring them financial services.
You can read our articles on this data below:
Crypto is at bottom of U.S. voters’ priorities heading into elections, CoinDesk survey shows
U.S. voters don’t trust Trump administration to oversee crypto sector, CoinDesk poll finds
Americans still prefer banks over crypto for financial access, CoinDesk’s survey shows
Thursday
- 14:30 UTC (10:30 a.m. ET) The Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a markup hearing to advance the Clarity Act.
If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.
You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.
See ya’ll next week!
Crypto World
BlackRock’s Fink Spots Three U.S. Bottlenecks: Crypto Has 15 Altcoins Building the Answer
TLDR:
- Larry Fink identified power, compute, and chips as critical U.S. shortfalls, putting 15 altcoins in focus.
- Five compute tokens including $TAO and $RENDER offer decentralized GPU access below traditional cloud pricing.
- Power tokens like $EWT and $POWR enable peer-to-peer renewable energy trading without central intermediaries.
- Chip-focused tokens such as $HNT, $IOTX, and $CHIP build hardware and lending layers for AI infrastructure.
Altcoins tied to U.S. shortages in power, compute, and chips are gaining fresh attention across digital asset markets. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently named these three sectors as critical bottlenecks for the American economy.
The crypto community has identified 15 blockchain projects that directly target each of these gaps. With BlackRock managing more than $11 trillion in assets, Fink’s remarks carry weight among institutional investors tracking decentralized alternatives. Their growing interest has put these altcoins under fresh scrutiny.
Compute Tokens Offer Decentralized GPU Access for Growing AI Demand
The compute group holds five altcoins, each addressing a distinct gap in AI infrastructure. $TAO operates as a decentralized AI marketplace with 128 specialized subnets running varied machine learning tasks. $RENDER provides a GPU network built for 3D rendering and AI inference at commercial scale.
$IO pools idle GPUs across the Solana blockchain into a single, unified cloud platform for developers. $AKT offers H100 chip access at rates well below standard AWS pricing. $NOS is a Solana-based GPU grid designed specifically for independent AI developers and small teams.
A post from @ourcryptotalk stated these tokens are building for exactly the demand Fink publicly described. Each project targets a separate layer in the compute stack, reducing direct competition among them. $TAO focuses on model training incentives, while $RENDER handles inference and creative rendering workloads.
Traditional data centers are approaching capacity limits as global AI adoption continues to accelerate. Decentralized compute networks offer a practical option for developers needing affordable GPU access at scale. The connection between Fink’s stated concern and these token use cases has raised their visibility across markets.
Power and Chip Tokens Address Energy and Hardware Shortfalls
The power sector includes five altcoins focused on renewable energy distribution and peer-to-peer energy trading.
$POWR enables direct solar and renewable energy trading between participants without any central intermediary. $EWT is a grid-scale energy blockchain already in active deployment by Shell and EDF.
$GLOW rewards verified solar farms in tokens based on measurable clean energy output. $DAY links home batteries and solar panels to wholesale energy markets through a token-based bidding system. $SNC provides a marketplace where neighbors can trade surplus rooftop solar energy directly.
The @ourcryptotalk post framed these power tokens as direct responses to the bottleneck Fink identified. On the chip side, $HNT leads as the largest wireless DePIN network and now integrates 5G on Solana. $ATH runs an enterprise GPU cloud serving game studios and AI labs on a commercial basis.
$IOTX proves real-world chip data on-chain through Internet of Things hardware connectivity. $HONEY builds a dashcam hardware network mapping global roads with data stored directly on-chain.
$CHIP offers GPU-collateralized lending to finance AI infrastructure, acting as a financial layer within the chip sector. The crypto community is now asking which of these 15 altcoins has the capacity to absorb institutional capital flows.
President Donald Trump rekindled the Fort Knox audit debate during a May 10 interview with investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson. He said he still wants to verify whether America’s gold reserves remain inside the vault.
The remarks reignited a transparency question first raised by Trump and Elon Musk in February 2025.
Why the Fort Knox Audit Question Returns
When Attkisson asked what happened to the audit, Trump said he wanted to “knock on the door of Fort Knox.” He added that the goal was to confirm whether the reserves remain intact.
“I do want to go to Fort Knox sometime. I want to see if the gold is there, which I’m sure it will be,” Trump stated.
The United States Bullion Depository in Kentucky holds roughly 147 million ounces of gold. Treasury figures place that stash near 59% of total US official holdings.
At current gold (XAU) prices, the bars are worth several hundred billion dollars.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in February 2025 that annual internal verifications confirm every bar is accounted for.
However, the last public audit involving outside observers occurred in 1974, a gap that has fueled decades of speculation.
What Comes Next
Trump did not announce a new inspection, formal audit, or visit timeline. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which originally floated the idea, has gone quiet.
A related bill from Representative Thomas Massie also remains stalled in committee.
“I just introduced HR 3795, the Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025, to audit U.S. gold reserves. In February, President Trump said he wanted to go to Fort Knox to “make sure the gold is there.” This bill provides the full disclosure President Trump seeks,” Massie stated.
Renewed attention from the president could nudge gold and safe-haven markets, although no measurable price reaction followed the interview.
The rhetoric becoming a physical inspection could shape the next chapter of one of America’s longest-running monetary mysteries.
The post Trump Revives Fort Knox Audit Push, Wants to Knock on the Vault Door appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
JASMY Price Outlook: Can JasmyCoin Repeat Its 4,000% Rally from Current Accumulation Lows?
TLDR:
- JASMY has corrected 98.7% from its $0.36 all-time high and now sits in a HTF demand zone at $0.0045–$0.0060.
- A weekly close below $0.0040 invalidates the bullish structure, making this the most critical risk level to watch.
- Analysts project a potential 10x–40x rally for JASMY during the 2026–2027 altseason if key levels are reclaimed.
- JASMY must reclaim and hold above $0.01030 on higher timeframes to confirm any valid bullish market structure shift.
JasmyCoin (JASMY) is drawing attention from crypto analysts as it trades near multi-year lows. The token has completed a near-total macro correction from its all-time high.
Technical patterns suggest a possible long-term expansion phase may be forming. Analysts are now watching key demand zones closely. Price compression at range lows points to a potential shift in market structure ahead.
JASMY Sits Inside Critical HTF Accumulation Zone After Steep Decline
JASMY reached its previous cycle peak at approximately $0.36 before entering a prolonged downtrend. From that high, the token corrected by roughly 98.7%, placing it near historically significant demand levels.
The price is currently trading between $0.0045 and $0.0060, which analysts identify as a high-risk accumulation zone.
Crypto analyst Crypto Patel noted on X that JASMY “may be forming the same structure that led to a 4,000%+ expansion.”
The token has been trading inside a multi-year descending channel since its 2021 cycle top. Consistent lower highs and lower lows have defined price action throughout this period.
A confirmed breakout and retest occurred in 2024, representing a temporary shift in order flow. However, JASMY failed to reclaim the $0.05 level on higher timeframes, which led to redistribution. Price eventually returned to the current HTF demand region near cycle lows.
Compression at range lows is being read as a sign of seller exhaustion by market participants. The pattern mirrors behavior seen before the 2023–2024 rally, which produced a 1,933% gain. Analysts are treating the current zone as a late accumulation phase before any potential move higher.
Key Price Levels and Cycle Targets Guide Market Outlook for JASMY
For any bullish structure to remain valid, JASMY must reclaim and hold above $0.01030 on higher timeframes. Below that, mid-range resistance sits between $0.0070 and $0.0100. A weekly close below $0.0040 would invalidate the current accumulation thesis entirely.
The structure break level that would confirm a higher timeframe shift is $0.0208. Beyond that, major liquidity targets include $0.05 and $0.18. Bull cycle price targets outlined by the analyst are $0.0185, $0.050, and $0.185 respectively.
The 2026–2027 window is being flagged as a period for a potential massive breakout and retest. Analysts point to a possible 10x–40x rally during a broader altseason phase.
This projection is based on the repeating channel compression and expansion structure seen across previous cycles.
The current phase is described as late accumulation near cycle lows, with risk remaining elevated. Traders are advised to monitor weekly closes carefully around the $0.0040 invalidation level. No confirmed breakout has occurred yet, and price remains within the descending channel structure.
Although most of the cryptocurrency market is in the green now, with BTC climbing to $81,500 minutes ago, Ripple’s native token is actually among the top performers.
The asset posted a notable surge in the past hour or so, going from $1.42 to almost $1.50. This became its highest price tag since April 18, when it was rejected at $1.50 and spent the following three weeks trading sideways between $1.34 and $1.45.
This impressive price surge of almost 5% daily comes on the heels of many analysts predicting it over the past weeks.
As reported yesterday, Ali Martinez noted that the TD Sequential metric had flashed a major buy signal on the 4-hour chart. The analyst outlined targets of up to $1.82 if it manages to decisively break through the $1.45 resistance.
Fellow analyst CW noted that the token’s current chart shows significant strength, and predicted that “a full-scale rise for XRP is imminent.” Before that, they forecasted a “historic rally” in the making.
Another popular analyst on X who often touches upon XRP’s price moves, EGRAG CRYPTO, was significantly more bullish on the asset’s long-term performance. They touched upon the historical EMA Ribbon and outlined three different scenarios for the asset’s future.
Even the most modest one envisioned a mind-blowing 1,000% surge based on historical performance, while the most likely to occur, according to EGRAG, predicted a 1,250% surge, which would send the token flying to $13.
The post Ripple (XRP) Is Breaking Out as Analyst Expects ‘Full-Scale Rise’ appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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