Despite reports of negotiations between the US and the Iranian regime, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most oil tankers, with only a small number of vessels being allowed to pass. The result is a loss of roughly 11 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil and petroleum liquids to the global market. This represents just over 10% of global supply.

At first glance, a 10% disruption may not sound catastrophic. But in oil markets, even a 10% imbalance between supply and demand can have very large economic effects.

To understand the scale of the disruption, it is useful to compare it with the height of the COVID pandemic in 2020. During global lockdowns, empty roads, grounded aircraft and deserted bus and railway stations became normal as travel and economic activity collapsed. At that time, global oil demand fell by about 8mbd, the largest demand shock in history.

Today’s situation is the opposite. Instead of a collapse in demand, the world is experiencing a large supply shock. But the impact on everyday life could end up looking similar: reduced travel, higher transport costs, slower economic activity and pressure on household budgets.

The reason is that both oil supply and oil demand are very inflexible in the short term. People still need to drive to work, goods still need to be transported and aircraft still need fuel. When supply falls suddenly, prices must rise significantly to force demand down.

For now, the release of emergency oil stocks is helping to cushion the initial impact, particularly in developed economies. Members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) are required to hold emergency stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of oil consumption, and several countries also maintain strategic petroleum reserves.

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These are shaky times for oil markets. An expert explains what a prolonged war will mean for prices

Countries such as the US, China and Japan can therefore offset supply disruptions for a limited period. However, these reserves are not a long-term solution. If the conflict continues for months rather than weeks, stockpiles will be depleted.

The situation is much more serious for developing countries. Many countries in Asia, Africa and South America hold very limited commercial reserves and are much more vulnerable to supply disruptions and price spikes. For these economies, elevated oil prices quickly translate into higher food prices, inflation and economic instability.

The first shortages would probably appear not in petrol, but in diesel and jet fuel. Gulf oil producers are major exporters of middle distillates, and their crude oil grades produce large quantities of diesel and jet fuel when refined.

Diesel is particularly important because it fuels trucks, ships, construction equipment and agricultural machinery. So a diesel shortage affects food supply, construction, mining and global trade – not just transport. Petrol shortages would follow as crude oil supply tightens further, and eventually shortages would spread across all petroleum products.

Oil is not just used for transport fuel. It is also a key input into petrochemicals for the production of plastics, fertilisers, chemicals, synthetic materials and many industrial processes. This means the effects of a major oil supply disruption spread across the entire economy.

Shortages or price increases could affect everything from food production and packaging to electronics, construction materials and clothing. The economic effects of an oil shock are therefore much broader than simply higher petrol prices.

Protectionism could make everything worse

One of the biggest risks during a supply crisis is export restrictions and protectionism. Governments often try to protect domestic consumers by freezing prices and banning exports of fuel or crude oil, but this usually makes the global shortage worse.

Government price freezes only discourage production and supply, and encourage consumers to keep burning fuel. Protectionism is even worse. There are already signs of this happening – some countries (China, for example) are restricting exports of petroleum products such as diesel and jet fuel. When countries hoard fuel, global markets become tighter and prices rise even further.

The biggest risk would be if the US restricted oil exports in order to protect domestic consumers. The US is now the world’s largest oil producer, producing more than 20mbd of oil and petroleum liquids. But it is also one of the world’s largest consumers. However, it still exports significant volumes, particularly to Europe.

The US has banned oil exports before. In 1975, following the Arab oil embargo (when in 1973 Arab states refused to supply oil to countries, including the US, that had supported Israel in the Yom Kippur war), the US banned exports of crude oil. The ban was lifted only in 2015. If such a ban were introduced today, it would be likely to cause major supply shortages and price increases, especially in Europe.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a prolonged period, or if the conflict escalates further, global losses of exports from the Persian Gulf could approach the 20mbd of oil and petroleum products.

Under these circumstances, the economic and social effects could be severe. Transport could become more expensive and less frequent, air travel would be severely curtailed, inflation would rise and economic growth would slow significantly. In extreme scenarios, the disruption to daily economic life could resemble the COVID period (and probably worse). But this time it would be caused by a shortage of energy.

For now, markets are relying on emergency stock releases and hopes of a geopolitical de-escalation. But if not, the world economy could face an unprecedented energy shock, with far-reaching and unpredictable consequences.

A woman is also in hospital with serious injuries but is in a stable condition

A man is in a critical condition and a woman has been seriously injured in a fail-to-stop crash in Cambridge. Cambridgeshire Police were called to a crash between an e-bike and blue Seat Leon in Newmarket Road at around 12.11am today (Thursday, March 26).

The rider of the e-bike, a 31-year-old man from Cambridge, suffered life-threatening injuries and was taken to Addenbrooke’s Hospital. He remains there in a critical condition.

The man’s passenger, a 34-year-old woman from Cambridge, suffered serious injuries and was taken to the same hospital. She is in a serious, but stable condition.

The driver of the Seat Leon failed to stop at the scene. A police spokesperson said: “However, at just before 2am, three people were arrested on suspicion of perverting the course of justice – a 19-year-old man from Luton and two 21-year-old men from High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire – and are in custody at Parkside Police Station in Cambridge.

“An investigation has been launched and officers are keen to hear from anyone who may have witnessed either vehicle before the collision, anyone with relevant dash cam footage, or anyone with any information.”

Anyone with information should call police on 101 and quote Operation Azazel or incident 7 of March 26.

Do you want more of the latest Cambridgeshire news as it comes in from across the county? Sign up to our dedicated newsletter to make sure you never miss a big story from Cambridge or anywhere else in the county. You can also sign up to our dedicated Traffic and Crime newsletters for the latest updates on the topics you are most interested in.

The conflict in Iran and the disruption to the strait of Hormuz are already starting to affect UK farmers. The closure of this vital shipping route threatens supplies of two essential agricultural necessities: fuel and fertiliser.

The immediate impact on farmers has been a sharp increase in the cost of red diesel – the rebated fuel widely used in agriculture – which has already risen by approximately 60%, far outpacing increases seen at retail fuel pumps for car owners.

Concerns for farmers include the cost of fertiliser, particularly nitrogen. As the key nutrient driving growth in two key crop groups grown extensively in the UK, cereals and oilseeds, nitrogen is essential for achieving high yields. A wheat crop may require over 200kg per hectare during the growing season, depending on soil conditions, weather, and yield expectations.

The UK imports around 60% of its nitrogen fertiliser. Although much of this supply does not originate directly from the Middle East, global market dynamics mean prices are highly sensitive to disruptions. Around one-third of the global fertiliser trade passes through the strait of Hormuz, contributing to price increases of approximately £50 per tonne, compared to early 2025, and is expected to rise more if the conflict continues.

UK fertiliser traders are finding prices are changing so fast that they can’t update their daily lists. The NFU president Tom Bradshaw has raised concerns about farmers not being given a confirmed price until stocks are delivered.

While most farmers buy fertiliser in bulk ahead of the growing season, the longer-term outlook is already a concern.

Much will depend on the duration of Middle Eastern tensions and whether the strait reopens in time for fertiliser purchasing decisions this autumn, ready for next year’s crops.

Unlike the 2022 fuel price shock following the invasion of Ukraine – which was partially offset by higher commodity prices – current market conditions offer little expectation of improved crop prices.

Difficult calculations

Farmers are, therefore, being forced into difficult calculations: weighing the cost of nitrogen against likely crop prices, reassessing how to balance the crop’s agrochemical inputs, including fertiliser, and awaiting clarity on the future of Environmental Land Management Schemes (Elms). Elms are government schemes in England aimed at supporting farmers to make environmentally beneficial changes to their land.

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How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming

Even before the current conflict started, industry bodies such as the National Farmers’ Union had raised concerns about the viability of arable farming under sustained cost pressures.

The government has also acknowledged these challenges, commissioning the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to investigate supply issues affecting fertiliser and agricultural fuel. The CMA has said it will monitor price rises caused by the current international conditions. In response to the crisis, the UK government has just announced proposals to support more varied types of fertiliser.

All these factors raise broader concerns for the UK, where food self-sufficiency stands at around 62% – a potentially precarious position in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.

Farming landscape

UK crops are currently looking generally robust, after a strong autumn with ideal conditions for sowing winter crops and a favourable start to spring. Early signs point to a promising 2026 harvest.

But optimism is tempered by ongoing economic pressure. Farm gate prices (the price if a customer bought direct from a farmer) remain stubbornly low, as UK farmers compete with imports produced under lower environmental and regulatory standards

Simultaneously, the transition away from legacy EU support payments has left a significant income gap. Replacement schemes under the Environmental Land Management Schemes were paused in 2025 and are only expected to resume later this year, creating further uncertainty.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) latest figures forecast average arable farm income fell to £17,000 in the year to February 2026 – the lowest level since 2004–05. The drop reflects a mix of difficult seasonal conditions and global oversupply in key crops such as cereals and oilseeds. Dairy farm income was much higher at £224,000 for the same period.

The industry is rapidly embracing innovation and the government is backing farmers with measures to strengthen fertiliser supply resilience. Together with rising costs, these shifts have helped drive a 50% reduction in nitrogen use over the past four decades.

Precision agriculture (which uses technology to refine decisions) has boosted efficiency further, enabling farmers to tailor fertiliser use to the needs of specific fields.

There are other potential innovations that could help. Tesco for example, is working with farmers and manufacturers to develop lower-carbon fertilisers made from food waste, algae, poultry manure, and industrial by-products.

Global fertiliser markets may be volatile, but in the short term shoppers are unlikely to see that uncertainty reflected in everyday food prices. A 2022 Sustain report, found that farmers often receive less than 1% of the profit from supermarket sales, meaning their tiny share leaves little room for fertiliser costs to influence the final price on the shelf. For now, any rise or fall in the price of bread, flour, cakes or biscuits is far more likely to come from supermarket pricing tactics or broader supply‑chain pressures than from shifts in global fertiliser markets.

That’s not to say fertiliser costs never filter through – a prolonged conflict could still nudge prices up for shoppers. Crops respond dramatically to fertiliser levels, so even modest reductions in nitrogen use can produce disproportionately large declines in yield. All that could translate into thousands of tonnes of lost crops, which would make food more expensive in the future.

A 26-year-old man has been arrested after allegedly sexually assaulting a woman in the middle of the crowd during a show at London’s O2 Arena.

The woman, whose identity is being protected, was with friends in the standing area of rapper Gunna’s concert on Wednesday, March 25.

In a video posted on social media, a man can be seen approaching her from behind as she sang along, seemingly unaware of him.

She said her ‘whole experience’ at the show had been ‘ruined’, sharing she spent the whole day crying because she keeps ‘reliving’ the incident.

Security and officers at the major music venue were alerted to the assault and took a man into custody at the scene.

A spokesperson for the Metropolitan Police told Metro: ‘A man has been arrested following a sexual assault in south London.

‘At around 20:20hrs Wednesday, 25 March, police were called to the O2 Arena in Greenwich by venue management. A woman, aged in her 20s, was approached from behind by a man, who sexually assaulted her.

‘Officers were already at the venue, and swiftly arrested a 26-year-old man who had been apprehended by venue staff. He was taken into custody, suspect has not yet been bailed.’

The spokesperson added that the woman was ‘receiving support from specially-trained officers’.

‘The Met is prioritising the safety of women and girls across London,’ they said. ‘Officers continue to work closely with venues to provide awareness training for staff, and we have expanded specialist teams across domestic abuse, stalking and sexual violence to ensure a dedicated response.’

Meanwhile, the O2 Arena told us this was an ‘isolated incident’, which had been ‘promptly’ attended by the venue security and police.

In a statement, the venue added: ‘The matter is now being handled by the Metropolitan Police. Our priority is always the safety and wellbeing of our guests and we are assisting with their enquiries.’

Gunna has not addressed the incident publicly, with his tour continuing in Manchester tonight before heading to Amsterdam for two shows.

He’ll return to the O2 Arena for one final concert on March 31, marking the end of his Wun World Tour.

The rapper rose to fame in 2018 with his mixtape Drip Season 3, releasing his debut studio album the following year.

In 2020, Gunna was nominated for best rap or sung performance at the Grammys and released his latest album The Last Wun in August 2025.

Metro has reached out to Gunna’s team for comment.

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It’s hoped public toilets would make the city centre more appealing and accessible for people

Public toilets are set to make a return to the city centre – but they may not be on Cathedral Square. The long-standing issue of access to public conveniences was raised at Peterborough City Council’s monthly Cabinet meeting on March 24 by Councillor Mohammed Jamil.

The Cabinet Member for Finance & Corporate Governance asked to seek reassurance around toilet provision following Cllr Mohammed Farooq’s presentation outlining plans to establish a Peterborough City Centre Growth Board.

Cllr Jamil said: “One of the things we’re often criticised for is that the previous administration took away all the public toilets [in the city centre]. Can you just reassure me that there are plans to bring those back because people need these facilities?”

Adrian Chapman, Executive Director for Place and Economy said: “Cllr Farooq mentioned the Pride of Place impact fund… and one of the biggest impacts we think needs to be made is in toilet provision.”

Mr Chapman suggested new public toilets would join enhancements to Cathedral Square and the Guildhall in helping to make the city centre a more appealing place for both residents and visitors to enjoy.

“I’m not suggesting toilets will sit on Cathedral Square,” he added, “but I think we can combine all of that into one single project.”

Cabinet Member for Housing and Regulatory Services, Cllr Christian Hogg said: “How long do you think it will be before we see something happening with… toilet facilities in our town centre?”

Adrian Davey, the council’s Interim Service Director of Regeneration & Growth said: “The Pride of Place [fund]… is a quick, immediate programme to make differences now.”

Cllr Hogg pressed Mr Davey on the actual length of time it will take to see new toilet provision made available, voicing concerns that some other local development projects are likely to take a decade or more to complete.

He asked: “Are we having to wait 15 years for a toilet? Do we have to keep our legs crossed for that long?”

Adrian Chapman reassured cabinet members that more detailed information about city centre regeneration will be made available in the coming days.

Italy: Donnarumma; Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Politano, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Kean, Retegui.
Substitutes Carnesecchi, Meret, Palestra, Spinazzola, Buongiorno, Raspadori, Pisilli, Esposito, Cristante, Frattesi, Gatti, Scalvini.

Northern Ireland P Charles; Hume, McNair, McConville, Devlin; Shea Charles, Galbraith; Devenny, Spencer, Price; Donley.
Substitutes Peacock-Farrell, Hazard, Toal, Atcheson, Saville, Marshall, Kelly, Smyth, Lyons, Reid, Magennis, Brown.

Referee Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)

Czech Republic  Kovar; Holes, Hranac, Krejci; Coufal, Provod, Darida, Jurasek; Schick, Chory; Sulc
Substitutes Hornicek, Jedlicka, Chaloupek, Vitik, Karabec, Kliment, Cerv, Chytil, Sadilek, Zeleny, Visinsky, Soucek
Republic of Ireland Kelleher; O’Brien, Collins, O’Shea; Coleman, Taylor, Molumby, Manning; Azaz; Ogbene, Parrott.
Substitutes Keeley, Travers, Kenny, Idah, Brady, Dunne, Vale, Egan, Knight, Browne, Abankwah, Szmodics.

Referee Glenn Nyberg (Sweden)

Wales  Darlow; Williams, Lawlor, Rodon, Dasilva; Ampadu, Jordan James; Brooks, Wilson, Daniel James; Johnson. 
Substitutes Ward, King, Koumas, Cullen, Cabango, Norrington-Davies, Kpakio, J Colwill, Harris, Thomas, Sheehan, Broadhead. 

Bosnia-Herzegovina Vasilj; Muharemovic, Katic, Kolasinac; Memic, Tahirovic, Bajraktarevic, Sunjic, Dedic; Dzeko, Demirovic. 
Substitutes Hadzikic, Zlomislic, Mujakic, Celik, Gigovic, Bazdar, Basic, Hadziahmetovic, Burnic, Alajbegovic, Radeljic, Tabakovic.

Referee  Istvan Kovacs (Romania)

Ferryhill Town Council recruited the new councillors following a recent campaign and invited all three to a special council meeting on March 11.

At the meeting, they each gave a five-minute presentation about their background, experience and reasons for wanting to serve on the council.

Councillor Keith Lloyd (Image: Supplied)

Cllr Anthony Hewitt said: “I have met some really wonderful people since moving to Ferryhill.

“How welcoming and kind they have been and how many people work so hard to help the community.

“So I decided it was time that I stood up and did my part in trying to make Ferryhill a better place to live for all its residents.”

Cllr Keith Lloyd said: “I am very happy to join the Ferryhill Town Council as a Councillor for the Broom ward.

“I have lived in Ferryhill for 72 years, and think it is time to give something back to this community.”

The third new member, Cllr Liam Fellows, was not available to have his photograph taken; however, he shared his reasons for returning to the council.

Cllr Fellows said: “I was really sad to see so many vacancies on the Town Council following the local elections last May and that they hadn’t managed to be filled since.

“I really enjoyed my time on Ferryhill Town Council previously so thought I’d once again offer my service.”

He said he is committed to improving council facilities, services for residents and communication with the public.

Cllr Fellows said: “I’m passionate about improving the Councils facilities, what it provides for residents in the town and how the council communicates with the community.

“Hopefully working with the rest of the council and officers, we can strive to make these improvements.”

Anyone interested in learning more about becoming a town councillor can contact Leeanne Owens, the Town Clerk, for further information.

Sarah Ferguson has lost the Freedom of the City of York over her links to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The ex-wife of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was stripped of the title during a City of York Council meeting on Thursday evening with members of the public telling councillors, ‘it is the absolute minimum you should be doing’.

The prestigious title was gifted to the then Duke and Duchess of York on their wedding day in 1987.

But councillors voted unanimously for the removal following fresh revelations about the former duchess’s shockingly personal emails to Epstein.

Speaking during the debate, Liberal Democrat councillor Darryl Smalley said: ‘We now know, following the release of thousands of documents, that Sarah Ferguson too had a close friendship with Epstein, which continued well beyond his conviction.

‘We don’t expect recipients of York’s highest honour to be saints. We simply do not want them to be best friends of convicted paedophiles.

‘We stand with victims. We stand for the rule of the rule of law. We stand for decency.’

He added: ‘York will have hopefully have etched out our city’s connections to both Andrew and Sarah.

‘We must wipe the slate clean, draw a line. Remember our duty to victims of sexual abuse, and move forward with our highest honour reserved for those that truly deserve the privilege. I urge all councillors to vote for the motion.’

Labour councillor Anna Baxter said: ‘We are not living in 1987, and it is right that the honours associated with our city reflect the values of York today.

‘It is reserved for those considered to be people of distinction, but those who have rendered eminent service, and it reflects the values we wish our city to be associated with.’

Gwen Swinburn, a member of the public, addressed councillors during the debate. She said: ‘The decision before you tonight is whether to remove the freedom of the city from Ms Ferguson.

‘It should not be a difficult one. It is the absolute minimum you should be doing.’

Councillor Claire Douglas, leader of the Labour group on the local authority, added: ‘As the people of York would expect, holding this status requires upholding the values and behaviours consistent with such an honour.

‘Those who continued to associate with Jeffrey Epstein after his crimes became widely known fall well short of these expectations.

‘Sarah Ferguson falls into this category as the Epstein files have shown. I therefore call on council to support the motion as presented.’

The honorary freedom of the city is given to residents who demonstrate notable service, to distinguished people and to royalty, the council has said previously.

Emails disclosed as part of millions of published files showed that Ms Ferguson had asked Epstein for financial support while the paedophile remained under house arrest.

Sarah Ferguson reportedly spent several weeks at a £13,000 a day wellness clinic in Switzerland while details emerged about her close relationship with Epstein emerged.

She also wrote to the financier thanking him for being a ‘supreme friend’ and took her children, Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie for lunch with him less than a week after he walked free from jail.

In another embarrassing email, the former duchess appeared to ask Epstein to ‘just marry me’.

Many of her exchanges were conducted after Epstein was arrested for soliciting prostitution from a minor in 2008.

In another shocking email, she said the Royal family would discredit her ‘to obliteration’.

‘… No woman has ever left the Royal family with her head, and they cannot behead me, therefore they will discredit me,’ she wrote in July 2010.

‘I am totally on my own now. This is beyond scandalous, and nobody can do anything,’ she added.

‘I cannot believe what this is all coming to.’

Six companies linked to the former duchess started winding down in the wake of the publication of the Epstein files, according to Companies House documents.

Sarah’s Trust, a charity she founded, also announced it would close ‘for the foreseeable future’.

MORE: Royal lipreader reveals King Charles’ cold words about 13-year-old Prince Harry on family trip

MORE: Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor seen walking his dogs near his new Marsh Farm home

MORE: Man who ‘looks just like Jeffrey Epstein’ forced to deny he is the dead sex offender