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US Stocks Markets | Lucrative bets that anticipated Trump’s policy surprises warrant scrutiny, experts say

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US Stocks Markets | Lucrative bets that anticipated Trump's policy surprises warrant scrutiny, experts say
Well-timed trades ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s major policy surprises during his second term have potentially led to millions of dollars in profits for unknown traders, leading some legal experts to say they should be investigated to protect fair markets and ascertain whether information is leaking. A Reuters review of trading ahead of major Trump administration decisions on tariffs, Venezuela and Iran that led to significant market moves showed at least four instances where the legal experts said it appeared investors knew what would happen shortly before it did. The trades occurred on different types of markets and assets – options, commodities futures and predictions.

Given their timing and size, the trades warrant scrutiny to ascertain if they were based on inside government information, said the experts, who include a former enforcement director for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and three academics who have studied insider trading.

“It looks deeply suspicious,” said Andrew Verstein, an expert in insider ‌trading at UCLA School of Law, ⁠adding that while ⁠the examples are limited in number, they show patterns you “would expect to see if there were informed trading by government officials and their friends.”

Aitan Goelman, a former CFTC enforcement director and former federal prosecutor, said such trading would normally draw scrutiny, although he added that insider trading law for commodities markets is complex ​and still relatively uncharted.

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The exchanges, CFTC and DOJ would typically find such trades “anomalous and interesting,” Goelman said.


White House spokesman Kush Desai said government ethics guidelines bar federal employees from profiting off nonpublic information. “Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible,” he said in an emailed statement.
A CFTC spokesperson said the agency was in constant communication with exchanges “over trades that raise red flags” and that it conducts its own surveillance but did not say whether it had opened an investigation into the wagers. The Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment, while the Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment. To be sure, some traders may have gotten very lucky or spotted signs of impending action the rest of the market missed, especially with Wall Street firms increasingly leaning on ex-military and national security advisers. Some trades may have been hedges for exposures taking the other ⁠side of the ‌bet, which is common in macro-driven commodities portfolios.ENFORCEMENT RECORD IS PATCHY

Trading with material and nonpublic information is typically considered illegal if the person has a duty not to, such as through an employment or ​confidentiality requirement. But the enforcement record is ​patchy across different assets and exchange venues.

While insider trading has been banned for over a decade in commodities and derivatives markets, for example, there is little precedent for bringing such cases ⁠in those markets, according to legal experts. Oversight of prediction markets, where some of the bets were made, is in flux. Top SEC officials have said they intend to focus on more bread-and-butter fraud in securities markets, such as insider trading, yet many lawyers, investors and other observers say regulators have taken a softer enforcement stance during Trump’s second administration.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said the trades in question involved a patchwork of regulators like the SEC and CFTC and prediction markets, where the legal basis is murky. “If this was a single actor or a set of cooperating actors, it would require a high level of coordination between a diverse and dedicated group of regulators to get to the root of the issue,” Sosnick said. “We have seen no evidence that this is occurring.” Sosnick added that the recent resignation of the SEC’s enforcement chief amid reports of frustrations made it “hard to imagine this becoming a high priority among regulators.”

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WELL-TIMED TRADES The Reuters review found four prominent instances where trades stood out for their timeliness. In April 2025, options traders made millions in late-breaking bets in the minutes before Trump announced a pause on his blanket “Liberation Day” tariffs, sparking a 9.5% jump in the S&P 500. In January, an unknown Polymarket punter took in more than $400,000 after betting on the ouster of Venezuelan ‌President Nicolas Maduro that month. The anonymous account was created the previous month, and placed more than $30,000 in bets that would pay off if the U.S. invaded Venezuela by January 31. Bets placed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of the February 28 killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sparked fresh insider trading and ethics concerns. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six accounts that made a combined $1.2 million profit from Polymarket bets that were funded in the hours immediately before the U.S.-Israeli attacks that killed ⁠Khamenei. This week, unidentified traders made a $500 million oil bet minutes before Trump sent crude plunging by announcing he was delaying an assault on Iranian energy assets. The bets were placed on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is owned by CME Group.

A CME spokesperson declined to comment on the oil futures trades or whether the exchange operator was reviewing the trades.

Earlier in March, both Kalshi and Polymarket introduced new rules to crack down on potential insider trading on their prediction market ​platforms. A Kalshi spokeswoman said it will continue to “enforce as necessary and iterate on our existing technologies and partnerships,” adding that bets of the magnitude of the oil futures transactions on March 23 would have been flagged if they had been placed on Kalshi’s platform.

In an interview, Polymarket’s chief legal officer, Neal Kumar, said Polymarket monitors and tracks all transactions that go through its U.S. platform in real time, and that the company has a set of controls that can quickly crack down on suspicious trading activity.

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Some of the experts said the sheer size and binary nature of some of the bets raised the possibility that people may have had advance knowledge. Monday’s $500 million oil market trade, for example, indicates extreme conviction as well as deep pockets, some of the experts said.

“When you’re dealing with bets on unique events and things like that, those do raise a lot more suspicion that somebody has some specific inside information,” said David Rosenfeld, former co-head of enforcement at the SEC’s New York office.

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Miniso earnings on deck as IP-driven expansion tests margins

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Up 56%+, this energy stocks may still have further room to run

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Pakistan hosts regional powers for Iran talks with focus on Hormuz proposals

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Tom Cruise Eyes Bold New Chapter After ‘Mission: Impossible’ Finale

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Tom Cruise is one of the biggest stars in Hollywood -- and a major daredevil

Tom Cruise, one of Hollywood’s most enduring action stars, is stepping into uncharted territory following the 2025 release of “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,” widely viewed as his swan song as IMF agent Ethan Hunt. At 63, the actor shows no signs of slowing down, with a high-profile 2026 project generating buzz as his 50th film and a shift toward more original, auteur-driven storytelling.

Tom Cruise is one of the biggest stars in Hollywood -- and a major daredevil
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Cruise made a rare awards-season appearance in March 2026 at the 53rd Saturn Awards in Los Angeles, where he accepted Best Actor honors for his performance in “The Final Reckoning” and watched the film win Best Action/Adventure Film. In his speech, he expressed deep gratitude to longtime collaborator director Christopher McQuarrie, joking about the director’s attempts to “kill me so many times” through the franchise’s death-defying stunts. He received a standing ovation and emphasized his lifelong passion for movies and audiences.

The eighth “Mission: Impossible” installment, released in May 2025, concluded Cruise’s three-decade run as Ethan Hunt. While Cruise has teased that “many more” stories could come in the franchise, he confirmed at the film’s premiere and during promotion that it marked his final portrayal of the character. Rumors of a ninth film, including unverified reports of negotiations with director Chloé Zhao, have circulated but remain unconfirmed by Cruise or Paramount.

Instead, Cruise is channeling his trademark intensity into “Digger,” a mysterious comedy set for theatrical release on Oct. 2, 2026, from Warner Bros. Directed by Oscar winner Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“The Revenant,” “Birdman”), the project has been described by the filmmaker as “a brutal, wild comedy of catastrophic proportions.” Cruise shared the first teaser and poster on Instagram in December 2025, captioning it simply: “Introducing… DIGGER.”

The film marks Cruise’s first major original role in years outside major franchises and his 10th as both star and producer. It reunites him with Iñárritu in what insiders call a bold departure, featuring an ensemble cast including Jesse Plemons, John Goodman, Riz Ahmed, Sophie Wilde and Emma D’Arcy. A teaser trailer released late last year offered little plot detail, building intrigue around the “enigmatic” project that some compare tonally to Iñárritu’s darker satirical style or even Cruise’s memorable comedic turn in “Tropic Thunder.”

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Industry observers see “Digger” as a pivotal test for Cruise at the box office after nearly a decade dominated by sequels and reboots. It arrives as the actor, who turned 63 in July 2025, continues to prioritize physically demanding and creatively ambitious work. Production details remain closely guarded, but the collaboration with Iñárritu — known for visceral, auteur-driven cinema — signals Cruise’s desire to stretch beyond the stunt-heavy blockbusters that defined much of his recent career.

Cruise’s post-“Mission” slate also includes ongoing development on “Top Gun 3,” with Joseph Kosinski expected to return as director. The sequel to the 2022 blockbuster “Top Gun: Maverick” remains in script stages, though no firm production timeline has been announced. Other long-gestating rumors, including a potential “Edge of Tomorrow” sequel with Emily Blunt and director Doug Liman, have surfaced in production listings for possible late 2026 shoots, but nothing is confirmed.

The actor has repeatedly pushed back against retirement speculation. During “The Final Reckoning” promotion, he made clear his commitment to big-screen cinema remains unwavering, telling audiences he loves making movies and values the theatrical experience above all. His hands-on approach to stunts and production has become legendary, with “Mission: Impossible” films consistently praised for practical effects over heavy CGI reliance.

Beyond the screen, Cruise’s personal life occasionally draws tabloid attention. In early 2026, unverified reports suggested friends were encouraging a reconnection with former co-star Meg Ryan following the reported end of a brief romance with Ana de Armas. Cruise and Ryan, who starred together in “Days of Thunder” decades ago, have remained friendly over the years, though both have stayed private about relationships.

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Cruise notably will not attend the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina, Italy, dashing Italian media speculation that he might reprise a stunt-heavy role similar to his surprise appearance at the 2024 Paris Games opening ceremony. Sources confirmed he remained in Los Angeles during the February Games.

His enduring appeal was underscored in early 2026 when online polls and fan discussions named him among the most “impressive and promising” actors of the year — a testament to his ability to captivate audiences well into his 60s. Classic films from his catalog, including “Jerry Maguire” and “Edge of Tomorrow,” continue to find new viewers on streaming platforms, introducing younger generations to his work.

Cruise’s career trajectory reflects a rare balance of commercial dominance and creative risk-taking. From his breakthrough in “Risky Business” and “Top Gun” in the 1980s to Oscar-nominated turns in “Born on the Fourth of July,” “Jerry Maguire” and “Magnolia,” he has demonstrated range while building one of Hollywood’s most reliable box-office brands. The “Mission: Impossible” series alone has grossed billions worldwide, with each installment raising the bar for practical action sequences.

As he approaches his 50th film with “Digger,” Cruise continues to embody the ethos of old-school movie stardom: commitment to craft, audience connection and theatrical exhibition. In an era of franchise fatigue and streaming dominance, his insistence on delivering spectacle on the big screen resonates with fans and theater owners alike.

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Looking ahead, the October 2026 release of “Digger” will likely dominate Cruise-related conversation throughout the year. Early buzz suggests the film could position the actor for awards consideration in a comedic or dramatic vein, potentially adding to his legacy beyond action hero status. Iñárritu’s involvement raises expectations for a film that blends humor, intensity and emotional depth.

Cruise maintains a relatively low public profile between projects, focusing on training, development and family. He has three children from previous marriages and has spoken occasionally about the importance of balance, though work remains his primary passion.

In recent interviews and appearances, including at the Saturn Awards, Cruise reiterated his love for cinema and gratitude toward collaborators and fans. “I feel so privileged to be able to do what I do,” he said in his acceptance speech, a sentiment that encapsulates his four-decade journey from young heartthrob to global icon.

As Hollywood navigates shifting audience habits and production challenges, Tom Cruise stands as a steadfast advocate for the movie theater experience. Whether scaling skyscrapers as Ethan Hunt or diving into the unknown with “Digger,” his next act promises to deliver the same intensity and charisma that have defined his career.

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Fans can expect more updates on “Digger” and potential “Top Gun 3” developments as 2026 progresses. For now, the star who once declared he would “do my own stunts” until he physically cannot appears determined to keep audiences on the edge of their seats for years to come.

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Uber boosts driver fuel savings amid rising gas prices from Iran war

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Uber boosts driver fuel savings amid rising gas prices from Iran war

Uber is rolling out expanded fuel discounts and higher earnings incentives for U.S. drivers and couriers as rising gas prices from the Iran war continue to squeeze gig workers.

The company said it will significantly increase fuel savings opportunities through May 26, 2026, while also ramping up promotions aimed at helping drivers keep pace with higher costs at the pump.

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DOORDASH ROLLS OUT EMERGENCY GAS RELIEF AS PRICES SQUEEZE DRIVERS

An Uber driver is seen operating the app from a cell phone.

Uber rolls out expanded fuel relief as Iran conflict pushes gas prices higher nationwide. (Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images / Getty Images)

At the center of the update is a major expansion of gas discounts through Upside and Shell Fuel Rewards. Drivers can now save up to $1.00 per gallon using Upside—quadrupling the previous maximum of 25 cents—depending on their Uber Pro tier. Meanwhile, Shell Fuel Rewards discounts have been raised to as much as 21 cents per gallon, up from 7 cents.

These offers can be stacked with savings from the Uber Pro Card, amplifying total discounts.

Uber is also increasing cash-back rewards on fuel purchases. Drivers using the Uber Pro Card will receive an additional 5% cash back at gas stations nationwide.

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TRUMP PROMISED LOWER COSTS; THE IRAN CONFLICT NOW THREATENS THAT PLEDGE

An Uber driver is seen at Los Angeles International Airport on Thursday, March 19, 2026.

Uber says top drivers could save up to $1.44 per gallon when combining discounts and rewards, based on a $3.97 average gas price. (Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Additional bonuses include 3% cash back at Exxon and Mobil stations and 1% at Mastercard Easy Savings locations. Altogether, drivers can now earn up to 15% cash back on fuel, which i up from the previous 10% cap.

Uber estimates that, when combining all discounts and rewards, top drivers could save as much as $1.44 per gallon, based on an average gas price of $3.98.

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A gas pump nozzle in Austin, Texas.

Gas prices are rising the fastest on the West Coast, where tighter fuel supplies, higher taxes and environmental regulations are pushing prices well above the national average. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)

The effort comes as gas prices rise sharply nationwide.

The national average is now $3.98 per gallon, up about $1.00 from a month ago, according to AAA. Prices are climbing across nearly every region, with some states already well above the national average. On the West Coast, drivers are seeing the highest costs, with prices reaching $5.86 per gallon in California and $5.32 in Washington.

Along the East Coast, gas prices are nearing $4.00 a gallon, including $3.92 in New York and $3.99 in Maryland.

Meanwhile, in the Midwest, Illinois stands out with prices at $4.21 per gallon, while much of the region remains in the mid-$3 range. Prices are generally lower across the South, though still on the rise, with Texas at $3.59 and Florida at $3.95.

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Market trading guide: Buy ACME Solar and Dalmia Bharat on Monday for short-term gains up to 16%. Here’s why

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Market trading guide: Buy ACME Solar and Dalmia Bharat on Monday for short-term gains up to 16%. Here’s why
Nifty ended its two-session rally amid sharp cuts as a stalemate in the Iran-US negotiations dented the market mood. Elevated energy prices and a plunging rupee aggravated troubles for domestic investors.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index is trading below the 21-hour EMA, indicating sustained short-term bearish momentum. Additionally, the RSI has entered a bearish crossover, reinforcing the negative bias. “Given the prevailing market uncertainties, a sell-on-rise approach may remain suitable in the near term. Technically, any rebound towards 23,500 could face selling pressure, as this level is likely to act as an immediate resistance. On the downside, a break below 22,800 may lead to further weakness in the market,” De said.

Here are 2 stock recommendations for Monday:

Buy ACME Solar at Rs 269 | Upside: 15% | Stop Loss: Rs 245 | Target: Rs 290/310The structure is turning bullish as the stock has given a breakout above its recent consolidation zone near Rs 255 – Rs 260, supported by rising volumes and improving momentum indicators, with RSI sustaining above 60. Price is also holding above key moving averages, indicating strength in trend continuation. The breakout zone is likely to act as immediate support on dips. Traders can consider a buy around Rs 265 – Rs 270 with a stop-loss at Rs 245, while on the upside, the stock has potential to move towards Rs 290 – Rs 310 in the near term if momentum sustains.

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(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)



Buy Dalmia Bharat at Rs 346 | Upside: 16% | Stop Loss: Rs 310 | Target: Rs 380/400The structure for Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries Limited has turned bullish as the stock has given a strong breakout above its key resistance zone near Rs 330, supported by a sharp rise in volumes and positive momentum indicators, with RSI sustaining above 60. The price is now trading above key moving averages, indicating a potential trend reversal after a prolonged decline. The breakout zone around Rs 325 – Rs 330 is likely to act as immediate support on dips. Traders can consider buying around Rs 340 – Rs 345 with a stop-loss at Rs 310, while on the upside, the stock may move towards Rs 380 – Rs 400 in the near term if momentum sustains. (Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Godalming plant-based cookery classes bring people together

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Godalming plant-based cookery classes bring people together

Samantha Hutchison, the council’s assistant director of community services, said the classes offered “a fantastic opportunity for people to come together, share skills, experience different cultural cuisines and improve both their health and community wellbeing”.

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US jobs data to give economic view for war-gripped markets

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Pokemon card values rise amid Logan Paul Pikachu auction

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Pokemon card values rise amid Logan Paul Pikachu auction
Rare trading cards are outpacing Wall Street. Here's why

Pokémon cards aren’t just childhood collectibles anymore.

Some owners are increasingly treating the popular 1990s and 2000s trading cards like alternative assets, with some of the rarest cards outperforming traditional benchmarks like the S&P 500 in recent years.

During key periods like the pandemic boom and another surge in 2025, trading card indexes tracking Pokémon sales posted gains that far exceeded the S&P 500’s long-term average annual return of 10% to 12%, according to trading card valuation tool Card Ladder. The comparison isn’t perfect — stock data spans decades, while trends in trading card values are shorter and more volatile — but the outperformance in certain windows is still striking.

The jump in prices come down to scarcity, grading and a surge of deep-pocketed buyers chasing a limited supply of top-tier assets.

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At the high end, that dynamic is clear. A rare Pikachu Illustrator card, owned by influencer and wrestler Logan Paul, sold for more than $16 million in February, which set a record for the most expensive trading card ever sold at auction.

“There are certain individuals trying to acquire the rarest, highest-grade cards and taking them off the market for as long as they can,” said auctioneer Ken Goldin, whose online marketplace, owned by eBay, consigned and sold Paul’s rare Pokémon card. “It’s possible you may never see that card come up for sale again in our lifetime.”

Rare Pokémon card designed by Atsuko Nishida.

Courtesy: Goldin

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That supply squeeze helps explain why prices can surge and why a small slice of the market is driving most of the gains.

The condition of a card in particular, which drives its grade on a scale of up to 10, can make or break value, Goldin added.

“You can have a card graded a 10 [perfect score] and nobody cares if the underlying card isn’t important,” Goldin said. “But when you have the right card, the condition become critical — especially in Pokémon, where there’s a massive premium for a 10.”

That premium can be extreme, Goldin said. A perfect condition $100,000 card evaluated by Professional Sports Authenticator, the premier authentication and grading company, might only get 1% or 2% of that value in a much lower condition.

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Outside the most rare handful of cards, retail investors and collectors are flipping back open their dusty collection books from 20 or more years ago and hoping to strike gold. The boom in card sales accelerated during the pandemic as stimulus money and interest in alternative assets surged. Spending on non-sports trading cards, including Pokémon, jumped 350% between 2020 and 2025, according to market research firm Circana. At the same time, celebrities like Post Malone, Steve Aoki and Kevin O’Leary fueled mainstream attention.

“We are seeing people use this as an alternative asset and allocation of wealth,” said Goldin. “Whether that becomes more institutional over time is still to be determined.”

But risk remains for hopeful investors in the market. The same forces driving gains also create risk. Prices are volatile, heavily influenced by hype, and card prices lack the stability and track record of traditional markets.

Still, some highly sought after Pokémon cards continue to outperform the market.

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