Crypto World
Institutions Are Paying Bitcoin Custodians For The Privilege Of Added Risk
Opinion by: Kevin Loaec, CEO of Wizardsardine
For decades, institutions have followed a familiar pattern when managing assets. They choose a large, regulated custodian. Then, institutions transfer responsibility. Institutions rely on the assumption that scale, compliance and insurance equate to safety.
In traditional finance, this approach holds. Transactions are reversible, central banks provide backstops and regulators can intervene. When something breaks, there are mechanisms to absorb, unwind or redistribute the damage.
Bitcoin changes those assumptions completely because it is a bearer asset. Control is defined by cryptographic keys, and not account credentials. Every single transaction is final. There is no authority that can freeze, reverse, or recover funds once they move onchain. Yet, many institutions still approach Bitcoin using the same mental model they apply to more traditional assets.
The result is a quiet contradiction. Institutions pay custodians large fees for the appearance of safety. They also accept the risks that Bitcoin was designed to mitigate.
When control is outsourced, risk concentrates
Custodial models are built on delegation. Assets are pooled. Keys are shared, abstracted or held behind layers of internal controls. Governance lives offchain. It’s enforced through policies, approvals and service agreements rather than the asset itself.
From an organizational perspective, this can feel sensible because responsibility is externalized. Liability appears contained and insurance is cited as a backstop.
Bitcoin does not recognize delegation. If keys are compromised, lost or misused, there is no external authority that can intervene. Insurance coverage is often partial, capped or conditional.
As a result, in a systemic failure, clients face the same bottleneck. There is a single custodian holding assets for many parties, with limited ability to make everyone whole.
This is not a theoretical concern. Concentrated custody creates honeypots. Honeypots attract failure. Failures can occur through technical compromise, internal error, regulatory action or operational breakdown. In Bitcoin, concentrating control does not reduce risk. It does the opposite: Risk is amplified.
The industry has already seen how this plays out. Large, centralized custody models have failed before. They’ve left consumers, businesses and counterparties tied up in lengthy recovery processes. Limited visibility, with uneven outcomes.
Governance cannot live outside the asset
The core misunderstanding is not technical. It is organizational. Institutions are accustomed to enforcing governance through accounts, permissions, emails and internal workflows. That approach works when assets themselves are controlled by intermediaries. In Bitcoin, governance that lives outside the asset is, at best, advisory.
If an institution does not control the keys, it does not control the asset. Boards and auditors are right to be wary of fragile set-ups. A model where one individual can move funds is indefensible. Regulators are also right to push back against unclear control structures.
The choice is not between a single-key wallet and full custodial outsourcing. Bitcoin allows governance to be enforced directly at the protocol level. Spending conditions, approval thresholds, delays and recovery paths can be encoded into the wallet. Control becomes structural rather than procedural. The network enforces the rules, not a vendor’s backend or a support desk.
Policy-driven custody changes the risk model
Modern Bitcoin scripting makes it possible to design custody around real organizational needs.
An institution can require multiple stakeholders to approve transactions. It can enforce time delays. It can define recovery paths if keys are lost or personnel change. It can separate day-to-day operations from emergency controls. These rules are enforced onchain, deterministically, every time. All of this fundamentally alters the risk profile.
Related: The crypto events that reshaped the industry in 2025
Instead of trusting a custodian to behave correctly under stress, institutions rely on systems that behave predictably by design. Instead of outsourcing risk to insurance policies, they reduce the likelihood of catastrophic failure in the first place. It is a matter of engineering.
The insurance narrative deserves scrutiny
Custodial insurance is often presented as the ultimate safeguard when in practice, it is frequently misunderstood. Several high-profile custody failures have shown that insurance coverage often falls short of client expectations, either due to coverage caps, exclusions or prolonged claims processes.
Large custodians insure pooled assets, and coverage limits rarely scale linearly with assets under custody. Exclusions are also common and payouts depend largely on the nature of the incident, and the custodian’s internal controls. In a systemic event, insurance does not eliminate risk, it distributes a fraction of it.
By contrast, individually controlled, policy-driven Bitcoin wallets are far easier to underwrite. Risk is isolated, controls are transparent and failure scenarios are bounded. For insurers, this is a simpler and more predictable model. The process of insurance works best when it complements strong controls, not when it compensates for their absence.
Sovereignty is operational, not philosophical
Vendor dependence introduces another layer of institutional risk that is not often known. Custodial outages, policy changes, or regulatory interventions can leave funds temporarily inaccessible. Exiting a custodian relationship can be slow, expensive and operationally complex, particularly for organizations operating across jurisdictions.
In practice, this has already happened through withdrawal freezes, compliance-driven access restrictions and service outages that left clients unable to move assets precisely when timing mattered most.
With onchain, open-source custody systems, the software provider is not the gatekeeper. If a service disappears, the institution retains control. Interfaces can change and providers can be replaced. The asset remains accessible because control lives on the blockchain, not inside a company’s infrastructure. This is not an argument against service providers but an argument for removing them from the critical path of asset control.
Trust the protocol, not the promise
Bitcoin offers institutions something rare: the ability to hold a high-value asset with rules that are transparent, enforceable and independent of any single counterparty.
Yet many institutions still prefer familiar narratives over structural safety. Log-in screens feel safer than scripts. Brands feel safer than math, and insurance sounds safer than prevention.
This level of comfort can come at a huge cost.
Institutions should not pay for the illusion of safety while absorbing unnecessary counterparty risk. Bitcoin allows governance, recoverability and control to be built directly into how assets are held. The technology is mature. The tools exist.
What remains is the willingness to abandon custody models that belong to a different financial system.
Opinion by: Kevin Loaec, CEO of Wizardsardine.
This opinion article presents the author’s expert view, and it may not reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. This content has undergone editorial review to ensure clarity and relevance. Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and upholding the highest standards of journalism. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company.
Crypto World
Ethereum Network Activity Rises as DeFi Liquidity and U.S. Regulatory Clarity Converge
TLDR:
- Ethereum’s total transaction count is rising sharply in 2026 despite price remaining largely range-bound in crypto markets.
- DeFi liquidity is returning to lending, stablecoin provision, and DEX trading after two years of capital outflows and declining yields.
- The U.S. CLARITY Act introduces a safe harbor for non-custodial developers, removing direct legal liability tied to publishing smart contract code.
- Network activity is leading price movement in this cycle, pointing to a structurally grounded growth phase rather than speculation-driven momentum.
Ethereum is recording clear structural changes in 2026, with total transaction counts rising sharply despite flat price performance.
This divergence separates real network usage from speculation-driven behavior. Capital that left the ecosystem during 2024 and 2025 is now returning to decentralized finance protocols.
Meanwhile, U.S. legislative efforts are reshaping the regulatory environment for on-chain development. Together, these shifts are building conditions that could support sustained structural growth across the Ethereum ecosystem.
DeFi Liquidity Returns to Drive Real Ethereum Network Usage
On-chain data shows Ethereum’s total transaction count climbing steadily through early 2026. The growth reflects genuine protocol activity rather than short-term speculative behavior in the broader market. This activity pattern has not been observed at this level since before the 2022 market downturn.
Between 2024 and 2025, regulatory uncertainty and declining yields pushed capital away from DeFi protocols. Those conditions have since shifted, and liquidity is returning to on-chain lending, trading, and stablecoin markets. The recovery appears measured and connected to real protocol use cases.
Stablecoin-based liquidity provision, lending platforms, and decentralized exchange trading are all recording higher volumes in 2026.
These core DeFi segments are recovering in parallel, reflecting authentic demand for on-chain financial services. Growth is distributed across multiple protocol categories rather than concentrated in one area.
XWIN Research Japan noted in a recent post that this cycle differs from prior ones. Network activity is leading price movement, not the other way around.
That distinction points to a more structurally grounded early phase of growth than markets have previously seen.
CLARITY Act Shifts Developer Risk and Sets Stage for Institutional DeFi Entry
The U.S. CLARITY Act marks a turning point in how legislators are addressing decentralized finance. It is the first serious effort to formally define how DeFi protocols should coexist within existing financial systems. The legislation is also considered the most substantive regulatory proposal for DeFi made in the U.S. to date.
Before this legislation, developer liability was one of the most serious obstacles to ecosystem growth. Writing and deploying smart contract code carried legal uncertainty that discouraged builders from participating. That environment functioned as a structural brake on DeFi innovation over multiple years.
The latest draft introduces a safe harbor provision specifically for non-custodial developers. Under this provision, publishing code alone does not classify a developer as a financial institution. This removes a meaningful layer of legal exposure from the development and deployment process.
Open issues remain, including KYC scope and restrictions on stablecoin yield products. The regulatory debate has, however, shifted from whether DeFi should be permitted to how it should be integrated. As legal clarity replaces ambiguity, institutions with previously restricted exposure may begin allocating capital toward on-chain platforms.
Crypto World
new project aims to fix network fragmentation and improve user experience
A group of Ethereum projects have announced a new effort aimed at fixing a growing problem in Ethereum: its ecosystem is becoming too fragmented.
Revealed at the EthCC conference in Cannes, the project — called the “Ethereum Economic Zone” (EEZ) — is designed to make Ethereum’s many add-on networks (known as layer 2s, or L2s) work together more seamlessly.
The framework is being developed by Gnosis, Zisk and the Ethereum Foundation. Gnosis is a longtime Ethereum infrastructure developer, while Zisk focuses on zero-knowledge proving technology.
It comes as Ethereum for years relied on L2 networks to scale, though these networks often operate like separate islands. Users have to move assets between them using bridges, which can be slow, costly and risky, while developers often have to rebuild the same tools on each network.
The EEZ aims to change that by making all these networks feel like one unified system. In simple terms, it would allow apps and transactions on different Ethereum networks to interact instantly — without needing bridges — while still relying on Ethereum’s core security.
The announcement comes as Ethereum’s long-term reliance on L2 scaling has faced renewed debate. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently suggested the ecosystem may need to rethink parts of its L2-heavy roadmap, particularly as fragmentation and user experience issues persist. The EEZ appears to directly address those concerns by trying to unify liquidity, infrastructure and user flows across networks, rather than adding more isolated chains
The idea is to create shared liquidity (so funds can move freely), simpler infrastructure for developers, and a smoother experience for users. The system would also continue to use ETH as its main token for fees, rather than introducing new ones.
The project is being developed openly with input from the wider Ethereum community.
“Ethereum doesn’t have a scaling problem. It has a fragmentation problem. Every new L2 is a silo that makes it harder to seamlessly extend and drive value back to the Ethereum mainnet,” said Friederike Ernst, co-founder of Gnosis, in a press release shared with CoinDesk. “The EEZ is designed to do the opposite.”
Crypto World
DeepSnitch AI Leads as Bitcoin Drops Below $67K & Ethereum Bleeds
After 14 years, Tether has finally hired KPMG for a full independent audit. Verifying its $185 billion circulation and $122 billion in US Treasuries is the most critical transparency event in crypto history. If these reserves check out, the industry’s longest-standing systemic risk vanishes overnight.
While Tether secures the market’s foundation, aggressive investors are already pivoting to DeepSnitch AI (DSNT). Raising $2.6 million and locking in 210% presale gains through a hostile macro environment, DSNT is proving its absolute resilience.
Tether needed KPMG for credibility; DSNT just needs its March 31st Uniswap listing. This next crypto to explode opportunity will definitely close in three days.
Tether hires KPMG for its first full audit
The Financial Times reports Tether has officially engaged KPMG for its first full independent audit, with PwC preparing its internal systems. Moving away from mere reserve attestations, this comprehensive review will cover USDT’s massive $185 billion circulation, including its $122 billion in US Treasuries.
The significance cannot be overstated. A successful Big Four audit would eliminate crypto’s longest-standing systemic risk, cementing stablecoins as auditable financial infrastructure ahead of Tether’s potential US expansion under the GENIUS Act.
Top 3 next cryptos to explode: DeepSnitch AI, Bitcoin & Ethereum
DeepSnitch AI
Tether’s engagement of KPMG for a full audit proves crypto is the new global financial infrastructure. But as on-chain activity scales, so does the sophistication of threats. Rug pulls and honeypots are daily risks for retail traders, especially during the volatile market shifts we’re seeing now.
This is exactly where DeepSnitch AI (DSNT) dominates. While Tether solidifies the market’s foundation, DSNT’s five live AI agents run 24/7 inside Telegram to protect your capital and find the next crypto to explode. They bridge the intelligence gap instantly, identifying malicious contracts and surfacing alpha without requiring a Bloomberg Terminal.
Unlike other presales selling empty promises, DeepSnitch is a fully functional product with massive adoption potential. As auditable infrastructure brings millions of new users into the ecosystem, the demand for DSNT’s real-time protection will skyrocket.
Currently in Stage 8 at $0.04669 with $2.6 million already raised, community projections are locked on 100x to 300x returns, targeting $4.50 post-launch. With Tier-1 listings like KuCoin and Binance on the horizon, the March 31st Uniswap launch is your final chance to secure DeepSnitch AI’s ground-floor prices.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin just dropped below $67,000, shedding 3% on March 27 as over $50 million in long positions were violently liquidated in a single hour.
Broad macro headwinds are suffocating the market: 10-year Treasury yields are approaching 4.5%, the DXY is surging, and rising oil prices keep inflation fears alive. Bitcoin’s recovery now completely depends on uncontrollable macroeconomic forces.
DeepSnitch AI (DSNT) does not. While Bitcoin waits for macro conditions to reverse, DSNT’s March 31st Uniswap listing is permanently locked.
The launch won’t shift for cascading liquidations or dollar strength. Secure your $0.04669 entry before this ground-floor window definitively closes in exactly three days.
Ethereum
Ethereum has slipped below $2,000, dropping 4% on March 27 as escalating Middle East tensions trigger a massive risk-off sweep. Institutional demand is severely cracking, marked by seven consecutive days of spot ETF outflows totaling $392 million.
While whales like BitMine are quietly accumulating ETH to provide underlying structural support, brutal macro conditions are currently overriding the fundamental case, violently liquidating over $100 million in long positions.
DeepSnitch AI (DSNT) is completely immune to this macro chaos. With its March 31st Uniswap launch definitively locked, DSNT’s explosive upside isn’t waiting for ETF inflows to reverse or geopolitical risk to fade.
Closing thoughts
Tether just tapped KPMG for its first full audit in 14 years, finally removing crypto’s longest-standing systemic risk. Meanwhile, extreme macro hostility is wreaking havoc: Bitcoin plunged below $67,000 amid cascading liquidations, and Ethereum is bleeding through seven straight days of ETF outflows.
Yet, through all this chaos, DeepSnitch AI (DSNT) just crossed $2.6 million raised, being the next crypto to explode. Capital isn’t flowing in despite the volatility, it’s flowing in because of it. DSNT’s five live AI agents protect retail traders from market chaos directly inside Telegram, requiring zero technical expertise.
While Bitcoin waits for Treasury yields to fall, DSNT is only waiting for March 31st. With rumored listing targets like Binance and KuCoin, community projections are firmly locked on explosive 100x to 300x returns. The presale definitely closes in exactly three days.
Visit the official website for more information, and join X and Telegram for community updates.
FAQs
Which next crypto is attracting capital even as Bitcoin drops below $67,000 and liquidations cascade?
DeepSnitch AI is the next crypto to explode: $2.6M raised through peak market chaos, five live Telegram agents catching scams and honeypots in real time, and a confirmed March 31st Uniswap listing.
What is the next 100x crypto as Tether’s KPMG audit removes crypto’s longest-standing systemic risk?
DeepSnitch AI at $0.04669: community projections of 100x to 300x backed by a live product that protects retail investors from the fraud that scales alongside on-chain adoption. KuCoin, BitMart, and Binance are named as listing targets following the Uniswap launch. The presale closes in days.
Which altcoins offer retail investors real protection during cascading liquidations and geopolitical chaos?
DeepSnitch AI stands out as the next crypto to explode: five AI agents catching scams, honeypots, and malicious contracts in real time inside Telegram, no technical knowledge required. Built specifically for the volatility retail investors face daily, and raising capital through exactly that volatility rather than despite it.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Crypto World
BNP Paribas Expands Exchange Offering With Six Crypto-Asset ETNs in France
TLDR:
- BNP Paribas launches six crypto-asset ETNs tied to Bitcoin and Ether for retail clients in France
- Clients access crypto exposure through securities accounts without directly holding digital assets.
- All six ETNs are issued by asset managers selected by BNP Paribas for risk and financial strength
- The bank plans to gradually extend crypto ETN access to wealth management clients beyond France.
Crypto-asset ETNs are now part of BNP Paribas’ retail exchange offering in France. Europe’s third-largest bank announced six new products tied to Bitcoin and Ether.
Clients can access these securities through a standard securities account. No direct purchase of digital assets is required.
The products fall under MiFID II regulation, ensuring investor protection. Available from March 30, 2026, the ETNs mark a new chapter in the bank’s investment offering.
BNP Paribas Opens Crypto-Asset ETN Access Through Securities Accounts
The six crypto-asset ETNs will be available to clients starting March 30, 2026. Individual, entrepreneurial, and private banking clients in France can subscribe.
Hello bank! clients are also included in this initial rollout. Clients can invest autonomously without any guidance from a banking advisor.
The products offer indirect exposure to Bitcoin and Ether performance. Investors do not need to buy or hold the underlying digital assets directly.
Instead, the ETNs track price performance through a regulated securities structure. This setup lowers the barriers for traditional investors entering the crypto space.
These securities were issued by asset managers carefully selected by BNP Paribas. The bank evaluated each issuer based on financial solidity and risk management quality.
Only managers meeting the bank’s internal standards were included in this offering. This selection process provides clients with an added level of confidence.
BNP Paribas already offers a broad range of products on its exchange platform. Stocks, bonds, ETFs, SCPIs, and structured products are all currently available.
The addition of crypto-asset ETNs responds directly to growing client demand. The bank continues to expand its product lineup to match evolving investor interest.
MiFID II Framework and Plans to Extend Access to Wealth Management Clients
The crypto-asset ETNs are offered under the MiFID II regulatory framework. This European regulation sets standards for investor protection in financial markets.
Under its rules, clients receive proper product disclosures and risk assessments. Compliance with this framework makes these products accessible within regulated banking channels.
The ETNs are structured to meet the requirements for retail investors. They provide crypto exposure without the complexities of direct ownership.
Clients can hold these products within an existing securities account. No additional wallets or crypto exchange registrations are needed to invest.
BNP Paribas also plans to gradually extend the offering to wealth management clients. This expansion will move beyond France to include clients in additional markets.
The phased rollout allows the bank to manage compliance and overall client readiness. It also gives advisors adequate time to integrate these products into existing client portfolios.
The availability of regulated crypto-asset ETNs through a traditional bank is a meaningful development. It reflects growing acceptance of crypto-linked products within mainstream finance.
By offering these products, BNP Paribas gives clients more choice within a familiar framework. Investors can now approach crypto exposure using the same process applied to other asset classes within their portfolio.
Crypto World
Gnosis and Zisk Unveil 'Ethereum Economic Zone' Framework

Co-funded by the Ethereum Foundation, the EEZ promises synchronous composability between Ethereum mainnet and Layer 2 networks, aiming to address ecosystem fragmentation.
Crypto World
Crypto market recap: What happened today?
Crypto markets closed the weekend with activity spread across derivatives, token sales, regulation and ETF flows.
Summary
- Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market hit $5.4 billion in commodity and macro futures volume on March 23.
- World Assets sold 239 million WLD for $65 million as WLD traded near record lows.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $296.18 million in weekly outflows, ending a four-week inflow streak.
Onchain commodity trading kept growing, World Foundation disclosed a new WLD sale, Washington sued Kalshi, and spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the week with net outflows.
Onchain commodity trading stayed in focus after Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market posted a new record on March 23. The venue handled about $5.4 billion in perpetual futures volume across commodities and macro assets. Silver led with $1.3 billion, followed by WTI crude at $1.2 billion, Brent crude at $940 million and gold at $558 million. Equity index products tied to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also drew volume.
Market participants said the trend is moving beyond crypto-native traders. Theo chief investment officer Iggy Ioppe said weekend oil futures volume onchain is now above $1 billion a day, adding that “geopolitics does not stop on Friday afternoon.”
At the same time, liquidity remains a constraint, with 1inch co-founder Sergej Kunz saying traditional venues still lead on depth and execution quality.
World Foundation discloses new WLD token sale
World Foundation said its token issuance unit, World Assets, completed $65 million in over-the-counter WLD sales with four counterparties. The first settlement took place on March 20, and the average sale price was about $0.2719 per token, which puts the total at roughly 239 million WLD sold. The foundation also said $25 million worth of those tokens carry a six-month lockup.
The disclosure arrived as WLD traded near recent lows. Reports on March 29 said the token was near $0.27 after touching a record low around $0.2444, and a July 23, 2026 unlock is scheduled to cover about 52.5% of total supply. World Foundation said the proceeds will support core operations, research and development, orb manufacturing and ecosystem growth.
Kalshi faces a new state lawsuit
In regulation, Washington state sued Kalshi on March 27. Attorney General Nick Brown said the prediction market operator violated state gambling and consumer protection laws by offering contracts tied to sports, elections and other events. The civil suit seeks to stop Kalshi’s operations in Washington, recover money lost by residents and pursue civil penalties.
Kalshi pushed back and said it operates under federal oversight as a CFTC-regulated exchange. Reports said the company moved to shift the case to federal court and argued there had been “no warning or dialogue” before the lawsuit. The case adds to a wider legal fight, with Nevada and Arizona also taking action against Kalshi in recent weeks.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reverse course
US spot Bitcoin ETFs closed the week with $296.18 million in net outflows, ending a four-week inflow streak. The reversal followed more than $2.2 billion in inflows across the prior four weeks, according to SoSoValue data.

The weekly outflow came after two straight days of withdrawals on Thursday and Friday, including $225.48 million on Friday alone. Total net assets for spot Bitcoin ETFs slipped to $84.77 billion, down from more than $90 billion a week earlier, while weekly trading volume fell to $14.26 billion from $25.87 billion earlier in March.
Crypto World
Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit 79K BTC as Adam Back sees shift
Bitcoin margin long positions on Bitfinex have climbed to levels not seen since November 2023, drawing fresh market attention during a period of weak price action.
Summary
- Bitfinex margin long positions climbed to 79,193 BTC, the platform’s highest level since November 2023.
- Adam Back said buyers may use TWAP strategies to accumulate Bitcoin below $69,000 during pullbacks.
- Back estimated leveraged accumulation now exceeds 300 BTC daily, or about $20 million each day.
The move has added a new data point to the wider debate over whether large buyers are building exposure during the current correction.
Recent market data shows Bitfinex margin long positions rising to about 79,193 BTC. That marks the highest level recorded on the platform since November 2023.
The increase came as many traders kept their attention on macro risks, including oil prices and geopolitical tension. Even so, activity on Bitfinex pointed to a different trend, with leveraged Bitcoin accumulation continuing in the background.
Adam Back, chief executive of Blockstream, described the pattern as “unprecedented.” He linked the move to a market structure where larger buyers appear to be adding exposure in a steady and deliberate way.
Back said a group of institutional participants may be using a time-weighted average price strategy, also known as TWAP. Under that approach, buyers spread purchases over time instead of placing one large order.
He said this buying appears to focus on Bitcoin below the $69,000 level. According to his reading of the market, those orders have absorbed available supply during the recent pullback.
Back also said Bitfinex margin accumulation has been building since late 2020. He estimated that the pace now stands at 300 BTC or more per day through organic trades.
Using that rate, the daily flow would equal about $20 million at recent prices. That works out to around $14,000 per minute, with an average purchase rate between 450 and 600 BTC over a full day.
Accumulation builds during a correction phase
The timing of the buildup has drawn attention because it is taking place during a correction. While price action has remained under pressure, long positioning on Bitfinex has continued to expand.
Back said this does not look like “artificial speculation.” Instead, he described it as longer-term positioning by buyers whose identities remain unclear.
That view reflects a wider idea now circulating in the market. Some traders believe the current phase is shifting Bitcoin from weaker holders to entities with a longer holding period.
Several analysts have also pointed to signs of bearish exhaustion on the weekly chart. In that setting, a large leveraged buildup can become a closely watched market signal.
Back said the size of the Bitfinex long book could tighten available supply if the current pace continues. He added that reduced market depth could make Bitcoin react faster if a positive catalyst appears.
Crypto World
Market Preview: Jobs Report, Oil Shock, and Fed Signals Dominate This Week’s Outlook
Quick Overview
- Major U.S. equity benchmarks declined last week, leaving the Nasdaq with a 10% year-to-date loss
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices over 45% higher in just one month
- Friday’s March employment report projected to reveal 50,000–56,000 new jobs added
- Consumer confidence plunged to December lows as geopolitical conflict weighs on sentiment
- Market pricing now reflects a 22% probability of Fed rate increase by late 2026
Investors face a critical but abbreviated trading week marked by equity weakness, energy market turbulence, and employment data that could reshape market expectations.
The S&P 500 retreated 2.12% over the prior week, settling at 6,368.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.73%, suffering an approximately 800-point loss on Friday’s session alone. The Nasdaq Composite shed 2.2% Friday and has accumulated roughly a 10% decline year-to-date. Significantly, all three major benchmarks have now breached their 52-week moving averages, suggesting deteriorating technical support.

The primary catalyst remains the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, now entering its fifth week. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has eliminated 15 to 16 million barrels daily from worldwide supply. Brent crude has climbed more than 45% while WTI crude has surged over 50% during the past month.
BP’s chief economist Gareth Ramsay characterized the Strait of Hormuz shutdown as “every analyst’s study piece, or worst nightmare that we thought could never happen.” Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf declared the strait “cannot be the same as before.”
Employment Report Takes Center Stage
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release represents the week’s most significant market event. Analyst consensus anticipates approximately 50,000 to 56,000 positions created during March, following February’s unexpected decline of 92,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.4%.

Goldman Sachs economist Pierfrancesco Mei projects elevated energy costs will subtract roughly 10,000 monthly jobs from payroll expansion through year-end. BNP Paribas economist Andrew Husby suggested a more pronounced energy disruption would be required to disrupt the current pattern of modest hiring and limited layoffs characterizing the labor market.
Prior to Friday’s payrolls announcement, market participants will monitor Tuesday’s consumer confidence reading, Wednesday’s JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls data, and Thursday’s weekly jobless claims.
Central Bank Stance Shifting
Fixed-income markets are beginning to reflect expectations of a less accommodative Federal Reserve posture. The 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 4.48%, marking its peak since July. Two-year yields climbed to 4%, accumulating over 30 basis points since the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting.
BofA Global Research economist Aditya Bhave noted markets seem to be “anticipating a more hawkish Fed reaction function.” Current market pricing assigns a 22% likelihood to a quarter-point rate increase materializing by 2026’s conclusion.
Headline consumer price inflation is projected to approach 3.5% annually in upcoming months as national gasoline prices near $4 per gallon.
Regarding corporate earnings, Nike delivers quarterly results Tuesday, with particular attention on Chinese market demand trends. ConAgra, Lamb Weston, and Cal-Maine Foods announce Wednesday. Tesla is scheduled to publish monthly delivery figures this week.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses markets Monday, with investors scrutinizing his commentary for indications regarding the monetary policy trajectory.
Crypto World
USA Rare Earth (USAR) Stock Slides 3.6% Despite Major Production Milestone and Strong Insider Buying
Key Highlights
- USAR shares dropped 3.6% on Friday, reaching an intraday low of $15.05 before settling near $15.42, with trading volume significantly lighter than typical sessions.
- The firm launched its commercial-scale magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, positioning itself to accept customer orders for sintered NdFeB permanent magnets beginning in Q2 2026.
- Initial production (Phase 1a) is projected to achieve an annual run rate of 600 metric tons by Q4 2026, with total facility capacity expanding to 1,200 mtpa by Q1 2027.
- Wall Street analysts collectively rate the stock a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $34.33 — representing potential upside exceeding 120% from current levels.
- Company insiders control approximately 46.6% of outstanding shares, with two board members acquiring a combined $2.17 million worth of stock in January.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) finished Friday’s session at $15.42, marking a 3.6% decline from Thursday’s closing price of $16.00, after touching a session low of $15.05.
The rare earth company achieved a significant operational milestone this week, declaring successful commissioning of its commercial magnet manufacturing line at the Stillwater, Oklahoma location. This development positions the firm to begin processing customer orders for sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets from the second quarter of 2026 onward.
Friday’s price retreat occurred alongside subdued trading activity, with approximately 8.74 million shares changing hands — representing roughly 55% below the stock’s typical daily volume of 19.5 million shares.
According to company statements, the commissioning represents a sophisticated, multi-phase manufacturing process. Raw rare earth and metallic components are transformed into ultra-fine powder, then jet-milled to particle sizes between 3 and 5 microns within oxygen-controlled environments. The material subsequently undergoes pressing, precision machining, protective coating application, and magnetization to produce finished magnets.
Over 100 workers at the Stillwater location oversee the complete production cycle.
USAR’s initial Phase 1a manufacturing line is projected to scale up to an annual production run rate of 600 metric tons (mtpa) by the conclusion of Q4 2026.
Expansion of Manufacturing Capacity
With the addition of a subsequent production line, the company forecasts total operational capacity at the Stillwater site reaching 1,200 mtpa by the first quarter of 2027.
Technical indicators show the stock trading significantly below its 50-day moving average of $20.15 and its 200-day moving average of $18.76 as of Friday’s close.
USAR maintains a market valuation near $2.05 billion, posts a PE ratio of -29.65, and displays a beta coefficient of 1.05.
Wall Street Outlook and Insider Transactions
Notwithstanding the recent price weakness, analyst sentiment remains constructive on the stock. Six research firms maintain Buy recommendations while one holds a Sell rating, resulting in a consensus “Moderate Buy” assessment. The mean price objective stands at $34.33 — more than doubling Friday’s trading level.
Canaccord Genuity elevated its price target from $23 to $33 during January, while Cantor Fitzgerald increased its forecast from $28 to $35, maintaining an “overweight” stance.
Benchmark initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation in January, and UBS reaffirmed its Buy rating in December.
Insider purchasing activity has intensified recently. In late January, Board Member Michael Blitzer acquired 100,000 shares at $21.44 per share, representing an investment of roughly $2.14 million. This transaction expanded his holdings by 13.4%.
Board Member Carolyn Trabuco similarly purchased 1,300 shares at $22.60 during the same timeframe.
Collectively, company insiders now control approximately 46.6% of USAR’s total outstanding equity.
Institutional investors have also been accumulating positions. Larson Financial Group expanded its stake by 217.5% during Q4, while NewEdge Advisors increased its holdings by 158.2%.
The company’s flagship Round Top deposit located in West Texas — a polymetallic rare earth resource — continues to serve as its primary asset base, while the Stillwater manufacturing facility represents its strategic move into downstream production capabilities.
The Phase 1a commissioning milestone establishes USAR’s entry into commercial-scale magnet manufacturing, with the subsequent production line anticipated to elevate total output capacity to 1,200 mtpa by early 2027.
Crypto World
On-Chain Commodity Trading Takes Root, Liquidity Remains a Hurdle
Onchain commodity trading is attracting sustained attention as a viable channel for macro risk exposure, yet the market still wrestles with liquidity gaps that keep it from fully rivaling traditional venues. A new milestone for Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market shows the trend toward broader onchain adoption, while observers flag key bottlenecks that could determine whether this momentum endures.
Key takeaways
- HIP-3 posted an all-time volume high on March 23, with about $5.4 billion in perpetual futures across commodities and macro assets, according to Artemis Analytics. Silver led the pack with roughly $1.3 billion in activity, followed by WTI crude ($1.2B), Brent ($940 million) and gold ($558 million).
- Traders are increasingly seeking macro-style exposure onchain. The shift isn’t limited to crypto-native participants; traditional finance actors are entering via personal accounts, expanding weekend and off-hours participation.
- Price discovery onchain is gaining traction during weekend and after-hours periods, but liquidity depth and price reliability on onchain venues remain weaker than centralized traditional exchanges.
- Liquidity depth, tighter spreads and clearer regulatory frameworks remain the main hurdles for broader institutional participation, according to market observers.
- The onchain macro narrative is expanding beyond commodities, with market participants anticipating broader asset classes to follow the same weekend-discovery dynamic as volatility shifts.
Onchain activity hits new highs as macro exposure gains traction
Data from Artemis Analytics shows a clear spike in onchain macro trading, centered on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market. On March 23, HIP-3 recorded a fresh all-time high, tallying roughly $5.4 billion in perpetual futures volume that spanned commodities and macro assets. The standout drivers were silver, oil and gold, with silver accounting for about $1.3 billion, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude around $1.2 billion, Brent crude at $940 million, and gold near $558 million. Equity indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, also reflected notable flow on the platform.
Industry participants describe the surge as a signal not merely of higher trading activity, but of shifting intent: more market participants are seeking real-time, onchain access to macro trends. “Previously, onchain commodity futures were mostly a venue for crypto-native investors; that is no longer the whole story,” said Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo. “The real tell isn’t just the volume; it’s who is trading and when they show up.”
“The real tell is not just the volume, it’s when the volume shows up and who is showing up to trade.”
— Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo
Ioppe emphasized that onchain oil futures markets are now processing more than $1 billion in daily volume over weekends, a period when traditional exchanges are closed. He attributed part of the shift to individual traders from traditional finance who are accessing these markets via personal accounts. “Geopolitics does not stop on Friday afternoon, and markets are starting to adapt to that fact,” he observed.
In a broader sense, the data underscore a larger trend: traders are becoming more comfortable accessing macro-style exposure onchain, with gold and oil leading the development. While the current wave is anchored by commodities, observers anticipate similar patterns proliferating into other asset classes as volatility evolves.
Weekend price discovery creates a notable edge for onchain venues
A defining characteristic of onchain trading, according to industry voices, is the ability to operate around the clock. With an approximately 49-hour gap between the close of traditional markets on Friday and their Sunday reopening, decentralized platforms have become among the few places where traders can respond to macro developments in real time. This dynamic is already influencing how prices are formed beyond regular trading hours, even though traditional venues still provide the lion’s share of liquidity.
“Onchain is the price discovery layer when the rest of the market is asleep. TradFi remains the depth layer when size matters most,” said Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch. The contrast highlights a structural gap: while onchain venues can react instantly to headlines, the ability to execute large trades without slippage still hinges on deeper liquidity and tighter spreads available in traditional venues.
Comparisons to established markets illustrate the scale difference. On the CME, crude oil futures regularly trade between 1 million and 4.5 million contracts daily, translating to roughly $100 billion to $300 billion in notional volume. These figures reflect the vast depth and execution quality that onchain platforms have yet to match on a practical, institutional scale.
Liquidity depth and market structure: the remaining hurdles
Even as weekend and off-hours activity gains traction, liquidity depth remains a central constraint for broader adoption. Experts point to two intertwined challenges: pricing reliability and market structure maturity. “Traditional venues still dominate when it comes to liquidity, execution quality, and institutional-scale pricing depth,” noted Sergej Kunz. He argued that unless onchain venues offer materially deeper liquidity and tighter spreads, sizable trades risk moving prices unfavorably and deterring large players.
Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, added that while there are signs of behavioral shifts—more traders seeking macro exposure onchain—gaps in liquidity and price aggregation persist. He cautioned that commodity tokenization represents a real, but early-stage, development that will require maturation in pricing, data quality and regulatory clarity before it becomes a steady alternative to legacy markets.
Beyond commodities: a broader onchain macro narrative
Despite early-stage constraints, the trajectory appears to point toward broader macro participation onchain. Kunz framed it as a larger trend: “The broader direction is clear: traders are becoming more comfortable accessing macro-style exposure onchain.” While gold and oil currently dominate the flow, industry observers expect analogous patterns to emerge across other asset classes as market volatility continues to evolve.
As weekend pricing gains legitimacy and trust in onchain price formation grows, more market participants—especially those who already trade in traditional markets—may begin to rely on onchain venues for off-hours exposure. This could gradually contribute to higher open interest and more robust price discovery over time, reinforcing a feedback loop that strengthens the credibility of onchain valuations.
For now, the line between onchain and traditional markets remains clearly drawn: the former offers around-the-clock access and rapid reaction to macro events, while the latter provides depth, reliable execution, and institutional pricing power. Observers say continued progress will depend on improving liquidity, refining price aggregation, and navigating evolving regulatory expectations.
Related coverage from industry reporting highlights emerging milestones like S&P Dow Jones’ licensing of S&P 500 perpetuals for Hyperliquid, signaling growing mainstream engagement with onchain derivatives. As the landscape evolves, market participants will be watching whether expanded weekend activity and broader macro exposure onchain translate into lasting open interest gains and deeper liquidity across asset classes.
For readers tracking the trajectory of onchain futures, Artemis Analytics remains a key data touchstone for measuring volume and asset mix. The latest data point—an all-time HIP-3 high—suggests growing demand for onchain macro exposure even as questions about liquidity depth, price reliability and regulatory clarity continue to shape the conversation about how soon onchain venues can mature into viable, full-scale competitors to traditional exchanges.
What comes next will hinge on whether onchain platforms can translate weekend and after-hours momentum into sustained liquidity and tighter pricing, and whether institutional participants increasingly trust onchain pricing during times when TradFi is open and active. In the near term, observers will closely watch how other asset classes respond to the ongoing push for macro exposure onchain and whether the weekend price formation dynamic broadens beyond metals and energy.
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