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ETF that feasts on carnage in MSTR hits record high

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ETF that feasts on carnage in MSTR hits record high

There’s always a bull market somewhere.

While bitcoin and shares of bitcoin holder Strategy are falling, an exchange-traded fund designed to move in the opposite direction of MSTR and double its daily change has hit a record high.

That exchange-traded fund is the GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF, trading under the ticker MSDD on Nasdaq. It is an actively managed fund designed to deliver -200% of the Strategy’s daily performance. In simple terms, if MSTR falls 2% in a day, the ETF targets a 4% gain that same day (before fees/decay).

The fund debuted on Jan. 10, 2025 and is seen as a high-risk short-term tactical tool for bears betting against MSTR. And it has lived up to its repute.

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MSDD’s price hit a record high of $114 on Tuesday, up 13.5% on the year, extending the past year’s 275% surge, according to data source TradingView.

MSDD’s compatriot, the Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST), also clocked an 11-month high of $113 on Tuesday. This fund debuted on Nasdaq in August 2024.

In other words, MSTR bears out there who loaded up on these ETFs have made a killing.

Strategy fell to $126 on Tuesday, the lowest since September 2024, extending its multi-month bear market. The stock is now down a staggering 76% from its lifetime high of $543 in November last year.

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Strategy is the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, stashing 713,502 BTC ($54.24 billion) at press time. Naturally, its share price tends to follow swings in bitcoin’s market value.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has dropped 12% this year and traded as low as $73,000 on Tuesday. That was the weakest since late 2024. Since then, prices have bounced back to $76,000, thanks to narrowly approved funding package that alleviated near-term U.S. shutdown risk and stabilized risk sentiment in financial markets.

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Crypto World

What Will Restart The Rally?

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What Will Restart The Rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to reclaim price highs above $76,000, but analysts say that the uptrend may continue if key conditions are met.

Bitcoin’s 8% climb over the last three days saw it reclaim key levels, including the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $71,000.

“$76K is the level that decides everything,” analyst Crypto Patel said in a Wednesday post on X, adding:

“We need a proper HTF candle close above this zone to trust the move.”

Related: Bitcoin falls to lower support as analysts say markets are ignoring key Iran issue

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The analyst further explained that a high-time frame close above $76,000 would open the path toward the $84,000-$96,000 zone, where investors acquired more than 2 million BTC over the last six months, according to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Crypto Patel

Echoing this view, trading resource Material Indicators said that “there are multiple levels of technical resistance stacked” between the spot price and a “bonafide $BTC bull market breakout.”

These include the yearly open at $87,500 and the 50-week moving average at $97,000, which must be reclaimed to confirm that the “$BTC bull market has returned,” Material Indicators said in a follow-up post.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Material Indicators

The trading resource further pointed out that the relative strength index must close and hold above the 41 level in the weekly time frame. 

Previous occurrences in 2023, 2020 and 2019 have led to 660%, 1,600% and 316% BTC price rallies, respectively.

“Obviously, we are not there yet,” Materials indicators said in a video posted on X, adding:

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“Those are the macro things that need to happen to say a validated bull market is on.”

For analyst Rekt Capital, the BTC/USD pair needs to achieve a weekly close above $72,800 to “confirm a breakout.”

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Rekt Capital

As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls must decisively break above the $76,000-$80,000 range to confirm a trend change.

Optimism needs to return to the BTC market

The bull score index, a measure of Bitcoin’s overall market health that combines fundamental and technical metrics, indicates a significant improvement in market conditions following BTC’s latest move to $76,000

The metric increased to 40 on April 15, the highest since late October 2025. This reading remains within neutral territory, reflecting a gradual recovery after a period of relatively weak momentum.

While the bull score index improvement to 40 “reflects relative stability in the market,” it must rise to an area of “strong optimism (above 60), which typically indicates strong bullish conditions,”  CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake post, adding:

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“If the indicator continues to improve gradually, it may signal a potential return of upward momentum, especially if higher levels are reclaimed in the coming period.”

Bitcoin bull score index. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains intermittent, with these investment products recording alternating inflows and outflows after every few days. 

Although the $451 million in net inflows recorded on Tuesday pointed to a return in demand from US investors, persistent positive flows are required to propel BTC price higher.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

As Cointelegraph reported, onchain activity is showing “bull market behavior,” with Bitcoin’s daily transaction count reaching 17-month highs, further reinforcing BTC’s upside potential.