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Your crypto strategy should be about how much pain you can handle, not how much money you’ll make, Schwab finds

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Your crypto strategy should be about how much pain you can handle, not how much money you'll make, Schwab finds

Charles Schwab’s latest research on digital assets argues that cryptocurrencies’ place in a portfolio hinges less on return forecasts and more on how much risk an investor is willing to take.

The report frames bitcoin and ether (ETH) as high-volatility assets that can quickly reshape a portfolio’s risk profile. “Any allocation to cryptocurrency is likely to increase a portfolio’s volatility,” Schwab writes, pointing to sharp historical swings in both assets. Bitcoin and ether have each suffered drawdowns of more than 70% in past cycles, far exceeding typical declines in stocks or bonds.

Because of that volatility, even small allocations can have an outsized effect. Schwab finds that just a low single-digit percentage in crypto can account for a meaningful share of total portfolio risk. In some cases, allocations as small as 1% to 3% can materially change how a portfolio behaves during market stress.

The report outlines two common approaches to adding crypto exposure. The first follows traditional portfolio theory, where allocations depend on expected returns, volatility, and correlations. But Schwab highlights a key weakness: assumptions about crypto returns vary widely among investors.

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“Our research suggests that cryptocurrencies may not offer a large enough risk-adjusted return to justify a meaningful allocation if return expectations are less than 10%, even for an aggressive investor,” the report states. That makes portfolio outcomes highly sensitive to subjective forecasts. A modest change in expected returns can lead to large swings in recommended allocation.

The second method focuses on risk budgeting. Instead of guessing returns, investors decide how much total portfolio risk they want crypto to contribute. This approach shifts the conversation from performance to tolerance. Still, Schwab cautions that crypto’s volatility can exceed expectations, even within a defined risk budget.

“There is no ‘correct’ allocation to cryptocurrencies, and we believe the decision is largely a personal one,” the report notes. Factors such as investment horizon, familiarity with digital assets, and capacity for loss all play a role.

The firm also stresses that crypto remains a speculative investment. “Cryptocurrencies and crypto-related products are not suitable for everyone,” Schwab writes, citing risks including illiquidity, theft, and fraud. It can offer diversification and the potential for higher returns, but it behaves more like a high-risk satellite holding than a core allocation, the report concluded.

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Crypto World

US Prosecutors Reject Tornado Cash Co-founder‘s Argument for Dismissal

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Law, Trial, Copyrights, Court, Crimes, Tornado Cash

Jay Clayton, the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) and former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has penned a response to Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm’s motion for acquittal, criticizing his alleged criminal behavior.  

In a Tuesday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Clayton said that Storm’s criminal use of Tornado Cash was “window dressing at best and outright misdirection at worst,” rejecting arguments that he be allowed to use a civil copyright case in his defense.

The US Attorney’s filing followed a Thursday notice from Storm’s lawyers saying they intended to use a 2026 Supreme Court case, Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment, as part of an argument about the Tornado Cash co-founder’s intent to participate in the crimes of which he is accused: conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions.

Clayton said that Storm’s conduct “bears no resemblance” to that in the Cox case, which involved civil liability for copyright infringement. According to the US Attorney, there was no evidence that the Tornado Cash co-founder implemented effective anti-money-laundering measures.

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“The defendant’s conduct simply is not comparable to the conduct at issue in Cox,” said Clayton. “In any event, a civil copyright case has no relevance here in the first place.”

Law, Trial, Copyrights, Court, Crimes, Tornado Cash
Source: SDNY

Last August, a jury convicted Storm of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business, but deadlocked on conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions charges, opening the door to a potential retrial. The case has drawn widespread attention from the crypto industry for how developers may be held responsible for their code.

Prosecutors and defense attorneys in the Storm case are scheduled to meet on Thursday. 

Related: US lawmakers move to protect blockchain devs from prosecution

Attorney behind memo calling for end to crypto “regulation by prosecution” gets top DOJ job

Last week, US President Donald Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi, substituting Deputy AG Todd Blanche as acting head of the Justice Department until the Senate can vote on a replacement. Blanche, who previously acted as Trump’s personal attorney, also penned an April 2025 memo calling for the end of what he called “regulation by prosecution” in the Justice Department.

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Although Blanche did not call out Storm by name, he did say that the department will “not pursue actions against the platforms that [criminal] enterprises utilize to conduct their illegal activities” and called for an end to cases inconsistent with that goal.

Storm cited Blanche’s memo in a March X post after prosecutors called to retry the Tornado Cash co-founder on the two deadlocked counts.

”The 2 counts = up to 40 years in federal prison,” said Storm. “For writing open-source code. For a protocol I don’t control. For transactions I never touched. A jury already couldn’t agree this was criminal. But the SDNY prosecutors want to keep trying with the hope of getting a different answer.”

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It’s unclear how Blanche may use his new role to direct DOJ policy, or how long he will remain as acting AG. Clayton has asked a federal judge to consider an October retrial for Storm, but as of Tuesday, no date had been set.

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