Crypto trading has cooled in early 2026, and Wall Street analysts are racing to adjust their forecasts before companies report first-quarter earnings.

New research from Barclays and Oppenheimer shows multiple analysts are reaching similar conclusions, a few weeks into the second quarter. Expectations are coming down across the sector as trading volumes weaken and earlier projections look too optimistic.

Barclays took the most direct step, downgrading Coinbase (COIN) and warning that “global crypto trading activity has declined to a level not seen since the end of 2023.” The bank added that “absent a resurgence in near-term crypto trading activity, we see profitability under pressure at Coinbase.”

The slowdown is visible in the data. Coinbase’s March trading volume marked “the lowest volume month since September 2024,” Barclays wrote, with April showing “no signs of improvement.” For the first quarter, the bank estimates volumes fell roughly 30% from the prior quarter.

Coinbase and other exchanges charge fees on each transaction they facilitate, meaning lower volumes will lead to less revenue.

The mechanics are straightforward. When markets turn quiet, many traders step back. A retail user who once traded weekly during a rally may stop altogether when prices flatten. Multiply that behavior across millions of accounts, and exchange volumes drop quickly.

That matters because transaction fees remain the main revenue driver for most crypto platforms. Barclays underscored this risk, saying its forecast for Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA is about 24% below the Street, driven largely by weaker spot trading and retail activity.

Crypto prices have pulled back in the first quarter, with the average price of major tokens falling sharply quarter-over-quarter. Bitcoin lost over 22% of its value in the first quarter of this year, while ether was down 29%.

Oppenheimer struck a similar tone but kept a more upbeat stance on Coinbase. The firm said it is cutting its forecasts due to softer crypto prices and lower trading activity in the first quarter, driven in part by broader economic uncertainty. It also noted that current Wall Street estimates still do not fully reflect the drop in trading volumes during that period.

That lag is now being corrected.

Across the industry, analysts are revising models downward to reflect a quieter market.

Oppenheimer cut its Coinbase volume estimate to $211 billion for the quarter, down from $244 billion previously, and now expects total revenue of $1.48 billion, below prior forecasts and consensus.

The reset is not limited to Coinbase. Oppenheimer said that Circle (CRCL) continues to expand the USDC stablecoin network, with stablecoin market cap and USDC transfer volume rising about 1% and 12% quarter over quarter, respectively.

Crypto platform Bullish (BLSH), the owner of CoinDesk, saw “strong on platform activity” tied to volatility in February, though spot volumes still missed expectations. As a result, Rosenblatt downgraded BLSH earlier this week while Compass Point downgraded CRCL — to “neutral” and “sell,” respectively.

Even these pockets of strength highlight the broader issue: the core business of crypto trading is slowing.

Efforts to diversify revenue streams are underway but may take time to offset the downturn. Coinbase’s push into becoming what it calls an “everything exchange” includes derivatives, tokenized assets and new markets. Barclays was skeptical, writing that the strategy is “likely to take a long time to pay off” and that it sees “little ‘right to win’ in new asset classes like equities.”

Stablecoins, often seen as a steadier revenue stream, also face uncertainty. Barclays pointed to ongoing debate in Washington over regulation, noting that the status of stablecoin rewards “remains in question.” At the same time, Oppenheimer sees near-term support from new use cases, saying “increased prediction market activity could support USDC growth.”

Still, those areas remain secondary to trading.

The broader takeaway is that analysts are moving preemptively. With earnings season approaching, firms are lowering estimates now rather than risk being caught off guard by weak results later.

Coinbase reports second-quarter earnings on May 7 and Bullish reports on April 23. Circle has not yet announced a date.

TLDR:

• The S&P 500 gained 7.6% over seven sessions, marking its longest winning streak since October 2025.
• Similar rallies since the 1950s occurred only nine times, showing how rare such strong momentum phases are.
• Historical data shows the index rose in 8 of 9 cases one month later, averaging a 4.4% return.
• Over three months, markets advanced in most cases, delivering an average gain of 10.2% after similar rallies.

The US stock market has recorded a rare seven-day winning streak, with major indices recovering most recent losses.

Data shows the rally ranks among the strongest seen in decades, drawing attention to historical trends that often follow similar moves.

Historic Winning Streak Signals Strong Market Momentum

According to a recent post by The Kobeissi Letter on X, the S&P 500 closed higher for seven straight sessions. This marks its longest winning streak since October 2025.

During this period, the index advanced by 7.6%, nearly reversing losses linked to earlier geopolitical tensions.

The Nasdaq Composite has mirrored this performance. It also logged a seven-day streak, its longest since August 2025. The synchronized move across major indices reflects broad-based buying activity rather than isolated sector gains.

Carson Investment Research data, shared within the same post, places this rally in a wider historical context. Since the 1950s, similar seven-day runs with gains above 7.0% have occurred only nine times. Such occurrences remain rare, which often draws attention from market participants tracking historical patterns.

The recovery comes after a period of volatility tied to global uncertainty. Over recent sessions, equities have shown steady upward movement. This has helped restore confidence levels seen before the earlier decline.

Historical Data Points to Continued Uptrend

Past performance following similar rallies offers additional context. Data shows that in eight of the nine previous cases, the S&P 500 moved higher over the next month. On average, returns reached 4.4% during that timeframe.

The trend also extends into a longer horizon. Over three months, the index recorded gains in seven instances. The average return during those periods stood at 10.2%, based on the same dataset.

These figures, cited in The Kobeissi Letter’s post, present a consistent pattern. Strong short-term rallies have often been followed by continued upward movement in the months that follow.

While each market cycle differs, the historical record remains a reference point for tracking momentum. The current rally, based on available data, aligns with previous periods of sustained growth.

At the same time, markets continue to respond to evolving macro conditions. Recent price action shows that buyers have regained control after earlier selling pressure. This shift has supported the ongoing recovery across key indices.

TLDR:

• March CPI rose 0.9% MoM, driven largely by a sharp surge in energy and gasoline prices
• Core CPI remained steady at 0.2%, showing limited inflation spread beyond volatile sectors
• Energy prices jumped 10.9%, with gasoline rising 21.2%, dominating overall inflation movement
• Stable core data supports a cautious Fed stance as markets await clearer signals in April data

The latest U.S. inflation data for March showed a sharp monthly increase, driven mainly by rising energy prices. While headline figures moved higher, core inflation remained stable, suggesting price pressures have not fully spread across the broader economy.

Energy Drives Sharp Monthly Inflation Increase

Recent data shared by analyst Darkfost on X pointed to a strong rise in March inflation readings. Headline CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month, compared to 0.3% in February. This figure also came slightly above expectations of 0.8%.

Yearly, CPI reached 3.3%, up from 2.4% previously. The reading also came just above the forecast of 3.2%. This marks the fastest monthly increase since June 2022, signaling a sudden pickup in price levels.

The primary driver behind this increase was energy. Energy prices climbed 10.9% during the month. Gasoline prices alone surged by 21.2%, accounting for most of the upward movement.

At the same time, food prices showed no change during the period. This contrast indicates that the rise in inflation was not broad-based. Instead, it remained concentrated in a single sector.

This pattern suggests that external factors, including ongoing geopolitical tensions, are influencing energy costs. As a result, inflation readings for March reflect a reaction to those conditions rather than a widespread shift across all categories.

Core Inflation Signals Limited Broader Pressure

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained relatively stable during March. It increased by 0.2% month-over-month, unchanged from February. This was also below the forecast of 0.3%.

Every year, core CPI came in at 2.6%, slightly above the previous 2.5%. However, it remained below expectations of 2.7%. These figures indicate that underlying inflation trends are not accelerating at the same pace as headline numbers.

This gap between headline and core data suggests that inflation has not deeply spread across the economy. Instead, it remains tied to energy-related movements, which can often be volatile and short-term.

According to the analysis shared in the tweet, this distinction is important for assessing future policy direction. If inflation remains concentrated in energy, it may not require immediate action from policymakers.

As a result, attention now shifts to upcoming data releases. April’s CPI figures are expected to provide further clarity on whether price pressures begin to extend beyond energy.

For now, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current stance. A wait-and-see approach remains consistent with recent behavior, especially given the mixed signals within the data.

The coming months will determine whether inflation stabilizes or begins to spread more widely. Until then, markets will continue to monitor energy trends and their influence on overall price movements.

TLDR:

• TAO fell from $337 to $270 within 24 hours after Covenant AI announced its exit over governance concerns.
• Covenant AI claimed revenue was halted abruptly, and decision-making power shifted away from the broader community.
• Infrastructure updates were reportedly introduced without consensus, raising concerns among contributors about control.
• The project, once backed by major AI figures, now faces scrutiny over whether it still operates as decentralized.

Bittensor’s native token, TAO, recorded a sharp decline within 24 hours after a public dispute raised concerns about governance and network control.

The development followed the exit of Covenant AI, a key contributor, which cited operational and structural concerns.

Covenant AI Exit Raises Governance Questions

A recent post by Coin Bureau on X detailed Covenant AI’s departure from the Bittensor ecosystem. The statement alleged that revenue streams were halted without prior notice, disrupting ongoing operations tied to the project.

Covenant AI further stated that governance mechanisms had shifted away from community participation. According to the team, decision-making authority appeared concentrated among a limited group of actors. This shift raised concerns about whether the network still operates under decentralized principles.

The group also pointed to infrastructure changes introduced without broader consultation. These changes, described as top-down, reportedly altered how participants interact with the system. As a result, contributors expressed uncertainty about the network’s direction and governance structure.

Covenant AI was known for developing Covenant-72B, a large-scale language model built through contributions from over 70 participants. The model was trained using consumer-grade hardware, reflecting a collaborative approach within decentralized AI development.

Market Reaction Follows Centralization Allegations

Following the announcement, TAO experienced a rapid price drop, falling from $337 to $270 within a single day. The movement reflected a strong market response to the claims surrounding governance and operational control.

The project had previously gained recognition from notable figures in the artificial intelligence sector. Jensen Huang had publicly acknowledged the initiative, while a co-founder of Anthropic expressed support for its development approach.

Despite this recognition, the latest developments placed attention on internal dynamics within the network. Market participants reacted quickly as concerns about decentralization surfaced, leading to increased volatility in TAO’s valuation.

The situation also drew attention to broader discussions around decentralized AI systems. Questions emerged regarding how governance structures evolve as projects scale and attract more contributors.

At the time of reporting, no additional clarification from the Bittensor core team had been referenced in the initial statement. The absence of an immediate response left market participants assessing the available information.

TAO’s decline followed a period of steady activity, making the sudden movement notable within the digital asset market. Traders and observers continue to monitor developments as further details may emerge from involved parties.

Bitcoin BTC$72,904.29 is trading below $73,000 on Saturday, down roughly 0.2% in 24 hours, as U.S. and Iranian officials opened high-level talks in Islamabad. The broader crypto market is mostly flat.

The market rose over the week after a two-week ceasefire was announced, triggering a derivatives short squeeze that wiped out over $430 million in bearish positions.

The CoinDesk 20 index was trading up about 0.12% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) was up about 0.1%. Other major cryptocurrencies saw similarly small moves.

The U.S.-Iran truce remains fragile, with Israel continuing airstrikes against Lebanon and Iran announcing it will charge ships a toll to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump.

CNN reported earlier Saturday that Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who does not hold a formal position with the U.S. government but is Trump’s son-in-law, are leading the U.S. side of the talks. Iran’s delegation includes its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, according to The New York Times. Pakistan itself is a third party to the talks.

Some ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, after traffic through the vital maritime route collapsed when U.S. strikes against Iran began at the end of February.

Read more: Iran war oil-price shock revives inflation trade and a new stablecoin play

As the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz send oil prices higher, inflation is once again at the forefront of investors’ minds.

In the U.S., inflation accelerated last month to 0.9%, driven mostly by energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict; core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, surprisingly fell short of estimates. February’s headline increase was just 0.3%.

For Michael Ashton, co-founder of the USDi stablecoin along with Andrew Fately, the figures underscore a flaw in crypto’s monetary architecture.

“The stablecoin boom has accidentally rebuilt only half of the monetary system,” Ashton told CoinDesk in an interview. “Stablecoins solved the medium-of-exchange problem for crypto, but nobody solved the store-of-value problem. USDi is the first serious attempt to finish building the monetary system onchain.”

The $300 billion stablecoin market, dominated by dollar-pegged tokens, has become essential plumbing for crypto trading and payments. But those tokens, typically backed by cash or Treasury bills, are designed to hold a nominal value of $1, not preserve purchasing power. In real terms, Ashton argues, they are losing value.

“As stablecoins graduate from crypto-trading tools to genuine payment infrastructure, the store-of-value gap becomes a real institutional concern, not just a philosophical one,” he said. “Treasurers, neobanks, and cross-border payment platforms holding float in stablecoins are quietly taking inflation risk they probably haven’t priced.”

USDi

USDi is an attempt to fill that gap.

Instead of tracking the dollar, the token is designed to track inflation itself. Its value increases in line with changes in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), effectively making it a blockchain-native version of an inflation-protected principal.

Ashton describes USDi as closer to the principal value of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), but without some of the drawbacks that have caught investors off guard in recent years.

While TIPS offer inflation linkage, they are still bonds, meaning their market price can fall when interest rates rise. USDi, by contrast, aims to function more like an inflation-linked savings instrument.

The stablecoin’s reserves are invested in a in a low-volatility private fund called the Enduring U.S. Inflation Tracking Fund, which uses TIPS, U.S. Treasury debt, foreign exchange and commodity futures and options; to generate return.

“There isn’t really an inflation-protected savings account,” Ashton said. “That’s the gap we’re trying to fill.”

Oil-fueled inflation

Oil markets have been on a sharp and volatile upswing since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February. Prices initially jumped into the $80s before rapidly breaking above $100 a barrel as fears mounted over disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for roughly 20% of global supply.

Elevated oil prices can stoke inflation by raising transportation and production costs across the economy, which are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The moves have been marked by extreme volatility, with daily swings driven less by fundamentals than by headlines as markets price in a persistent war premium tied to the risk of prolonged supply disruption

“T-bills are around 3.5%, inflation is around 3%, but historically, inflation has often outpaced short rates over longer periods,” Ashton said. “We may be returning to that pattern.”

The dynamic, he added, strengthens the case for an asset explicitly designed to track inflation rather than nominal yields.

Still, Ashton frames USDi as more than a tactical trade. He sees it as a structural evolution in crypto, one that completes the system bitcoin began.

“Bitcoin was conceived as an alternative monetary system, and potentially as a store of value like gold,” he said. “But its volatility makes it difficult to use that way over shorter horizons. Stablecoins solved the payments side. Now we need to solve the store-of-value side.”

Customizable inflation exposure

Beyond its core design, USDi plans to introduce something Ashton says is difficult, or impossible, to replicate in traditional finance: customizable inflation exposure.

CPI itself is a composite of multiple categories, including housing, health care, transportation and education. USDi’s architecture, Ashton said, could eventually allow users to tailor exposure to specific components of inflation.

“You don’t have to hold one aggregate basket,” he said. “You could isolate health-care inflation, or tuition, or energy. You could even tailor it by geography: Dutch inflation, French inflation, U.S. core CPI.”

That flexibility allows for more specialized applications, particularly in industries with direct exposure to specific cost pressures.

Insurance companies, for example, face inflation risk in areas like medical costs but lack precise hedging tools. Traditionally, they’ve managed such risks by holding more capital or transferring exposure through reinsurance or catastrophe bonds. But those tools are blunt and often unavailable for certain types of inflation risk.

“There’s never really been a direct hedge for something like health-care inflation,” Ashton said. “If you can hedge that exposure more precisely, you can reduce the capital you need to hold, or expand the amount of business you can underwrite.”

He expects insurers and reinsurers to be among the earliest institutional adopters in a second phase of USDi’s rollout.

Other potential applications include education financing. Programs already exist in parts of the U.S. that allow families to prepay tuition years in advance, effectively locking in prices. Ashton sees a tokenized inflation hedge as a more flexible alternative.

“Tuition is a classic inflation risk,” he said. “Being able to hedge that directly, that’s powerful.”

Fundraising

USDi is already up and running, with Ashton targeting a seed raise of around $1.5 million in the coming months.

The broader pitch, however, is less about funding and more about reframing how investors think about risk.

“You’re born with inflation risk,” Ashton said. “You’re not born with credit risk or equity risk.”

Read more: Oil shock, Iran war risk keep crypto investors on sidelines: Grayscale

Running a successful crypto presale or ICO requires more than a good project. It requires attention. Investors need to know the sale exists. The crypto community needs to understand what the project does. Industry observers need a reason to take notice. Yet the vast majority of token presales and ICO launches happen with zero professional media coverage, relying entirely on social media hype and community word of mouth to attract participants.

Kooc Media, a PR distribution agency that has served the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors since 2017, has introduced a dedicated PR service for crypto presales and ICO projects. The service provides guaranteed article placements on established news publications, professional press release writing, same-day global distribution and comprehensive campaign reporting. It is designed to give new token sales the media visibility that directly influences investor confidence and participation rates.

The Difference Between a Funded Presale and a Failed One

Thousands of crypto presales and ICO launches take place every year. Some fill their allocation quickly and go on to build successful projects. Many others fall short of their targets, run out of momentum and quietly disappear. The projects that succeed are not always the ones with the best technology or the most experienced team. They are almost always the ones that more people heard about.

Visibility drives participation. An investor cannot contribute to a presale they do not know exists. A community member cannot advocate for a project they have never encountered. A crypto influencer cannot discuss a token sale they have never seen covered anywhere. Every potential participant who remains unaware of the presale represents lost capital that could have funded the project’s development.

The presales that consistently fill their allocations share a common trait — they generate media coverage that extends their reach beyond their existing network. Articles on crypto news sites, finance publications and blockchain media outlets introduce the project to investors, traders and enthusiasts who were not already following it. Each article widens the funnel of potential participants and reinforces the perception that the project is worth paying attention to.

For most crypto presale and ICO teams, generating that coverage has been extremely difficult. PR agencies refuse cryptocurrency clients. Journalists are overwhelmed with pitches from competing projects. Paid advertising channels are restricted across major platforms. The team is left promoting the presale through Twitter threads, Telegram announcements and direct messages — channels that reach existing followers but struggle to attract new audiences at scale.

Kooc Media provides the media infrastructure that presale and ICO teams need to reach beyond their existing circles. The agency’s crypto PR service has been delivering guaranteed coverage for blockchain projects since 2017 and is now specifically tailored for the unique demands of token sale campaigns.

“A crypto presale without media coverage is like a fundraiser that nobody was invited to,” said Michelle De Gouveia, spokesperson for Kooc Media. “The project might be excellent, but if potential investors do not know the sale is happening, the allocation does not fill. PR solves that problem directly.”

How the Service Supports Presales and ICOs

Kooc Media has structured its presale and ICO PR service around the specific timeline pressures and communication needs of token sale campaigns.

The process begins with content. The agency’s editorial team works with the project to develop press releases that communicate the essential information investors need — what the project does, what problem it solves, how the tokenomics work, what the presale terms are, what the roadmap looks like and why the opportunity matters. The writers have deep experience with blockchain content and understand how to present technical concepts like smart contract functionality, token utility, vesting schedules, DeFi mechanics and governance structures in language that resonates with both crypto-native investors and broader finance audiences.

Publication happens across Kooc Media’s owned news network. The agency operates several established publications including Blockonomi, CoinCentral, MoneyCheck, Parameter, Beanstalk and Computing. These sites cover cryptocurrency, blockchain, finance and technology with strong domain authority built over many years of consistent publishing. Because Kooc Media controls these properties, every placement is guaranteed and publication timing can be coordinated precisely with presale opening dates, ICO phases or any other milestone in the token sale calendar.

Distribution extends through the agency’s partner network, pushing each press release to hundreds of additional outlets and thousands of syndication feeds worldwide. Premium packages place content on major financial platforms including Business Insider, Bloomberg, Benzinga, MarketWatch and USA Today. For a presale project, appearing on these platforms alongside mainstream financial reporting creates a credibility signal that significantly influences investor perception.

Same-day turnaround means coverage can go live on the exact day a presale opens, maximising visibility at the moment when investor action is most needed. Comprehensive post-campaign reports with live links to every placement are delivered promptly.

What Press Coverage Does for a Token Sale

The impact of professional PR on a crypto presale or ICO operates across several dimensions simultaneously.

Investor confidence is the most direct effect. Crypto investors conduct research before committing capital to any token sale. They search for the project name and evaluate what they find. A presale with articles across recognised blockchain and finance publications immediately appears more credible than one with no media presence beyond its own website and social channels. That credibility translates directly into higher participation rates. Investors who were on the fence move toward committing. Investors who had not heard of the project discover it through published coverage and enter the funnel for the first time.

Reach expands beyond the project’s organic audience. Every crypto presale team builds a community through social media before the sale opens. That community represents the project’s existing reach. Press coverage extends that reach to every reader of every publication where an article appears. A single placement on a high-traffic crypto news site can introduce the presale to tens of thousands of potential investors who were not previously aware of it. Multiple placements across different publications multiply that effect.

FOMO dynamics strengthen with media visibility. Crypto presales operate on urgency — limited allocations, time-bound phases, early-bird pricing. Press coverage amplifies that urgency by signalling to the broader market that a sale is happening and generating attention. Investors who see a project covered across multiple publications are more likely to act quickly than those who encounter it only through a single social media post.

Search visibility improves immediately. Investors researching a presale search for the project name and related terms like “crypto presale,” “ICO launch,” “new token sale,” “best crypto presale,” “upcoming ICO” or “token launch.” Articles on high-authority domains rank well for these searches, ensuring that investors conducting due diligence find published coverage that reinforces the project’s legitimacy. The backlinks generated also strengthen the project’s own website rankings over time.

Post-sale credibility carries forward. The media coverage generated during a presale does not expire when the sale ends. Published articles remain online and searchable, continuing to build brand recognition and trust as the project moves into development, exchange listings and ecosystem growth. The coverage becomes a permanent asset that supports every subsequent phase of the project’s lifecycle.

Packages for Every Token Sale Structure

Crypto presales and ICOs follow different structures and timelines. Kooc Media accommodates all of them.

Launch packages deliver coordinated multi-publication coverage timed to presale opening dates or ICO kickoff. These create maximum visibility at the exact moment investor participation matters most.

Phased packages support token sales that operate across multiple rounds. Each phase receives its own coverage push, maintaining momentum throughout the entire sale period rather than concentrating all visibility at the start.

Custom campaigns address complex sale structures. A project running a private round before a public presale might need separate coverage targeting institutional investors and retail participants. An ICO with a tiered pricing model might need phased announcements highlighting each new tier. Projects combining token sales with gambling or iGaming platforms can access parallel distribution reaching both crypto investors and gaming audiences.

Kooc Media manages strategy, content creation, distribution timing and reporting across all campaign types.

About Kooc Media

Kooc Media is a PR distribution agency founded in 2017, specialising in cryptocurrency, blockchain, fintech, technology and iGaming. The company operates its own network of news publications and distributes content through a broad global partner network to guarantee media placements. Services include press release writing, sponsored articles, homepage features, newswire distribution and fully managed campaigns.

Kooc Media’s Crypto PR packages are available now through the company’s website at https://kooc.co.uk.