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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC at $76K

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46% of Bitcoin supply now in loss, near 2022 bear levels

Bitcoin price prediction grows increasingly complex as BTC was turned away at $76,000 for the third consecutive time, sliding back toward $74,000 while a closely watched derivatives signal flashes what could be a major setup.

Summary

  • Bitcoin briefly tagged $76,000 on April 14 before reversing sharply to around $74,000, extending a two-month standoff with that resistance level.
  • Funding rates on Binance’s bitcoin perpetuals have stayed negative for 46 consecutive days, a streak not seen since the FTX collapse in late 2022.
  • K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde says the combination of crowded shorts and rising open interest has historically preceded sharp upside moves in BTC.

Bitcoin price prediction turns increasingly cautious as BTC logs its third rejection at $76,000 in two months. After briefly topping that level on April 14, the asset reversed and settled near $74,000, holding a 1.3% gain over 24 hours but failing to deliver any sustained breakout.

The broader context remains difficult. BTC is still roughly 41% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, with the FOMC meeting on April 28, the Iran ceasefire expiry on April 22, and the CLARITY Act all sitting in the near-term window.

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Funding rates on Binance’s bitcoin perpetuals have stayed negative for 46 straight days, even as open interest continues to climb. That combination means new short positions are being added into a price that refuses to collapse, exactly the setup that has historically coiled markets for a violent reversal.

K33 Research head of research Vetle Lunde flagged the dynamic in a new report, noting the 30-day average funding rate has now run negative longer than almost any comparable period in bitcoin’s history. Only March to May 2020 (63 days) and June to August 2021 (49 days) saw longer streaks. Both preceded significant recoveries.

“Comparable risk-off regimes have historically been attractive entry points for BTC,” Lunde said, as crowded short trades were forced to unwind.

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What Has to Give for BTC to Break Out

Three rejections at $76,000 with no decisive close above it signal a persistent seller presence at that level. Until volume confirms a true breakout, the resistance stands. As covered, $68,000 remains the structural floor, and a break below it would expose BTC to a sharper move toward $65,000 if macro conditions deteriorate.

The near-term calendar is dense. A ceasefire extension from Iran, a dovish signal at the FOMC, or a CLARITY Act catalyst could be what forces a short squeeze. Without one, the consolidation continues.

Historical Context and What It Means

The 46-day streak now matches the duration of the defensive positioning that defined the market around the FTX crash bottom in late 2022. That regime also featured rising open interest alongside negative funding, and it resolved with a sharp upside move once sellers exhausted themselves.

The signal does not guarantee a rally. But the math is simple: the longer shorts remain crowded below $76,000 with no follow-through to the downside, the more compressed the eventual move becomes.

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MicroStrategy Pushes 2x Monthly Payouts for STRC Holders

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STRC Notional Value

MicroStrategy (now Strategy) has proposed switching its Stretch preferred stock (STRC) from monthly to semi-monthly dividend payments. The change would double payout frequency while keeping the annualized 11.5% rate unchanged.

The company filed a preliminary proxy on April 17, 2026. Shareholders will vote at the annual meeting on June 8.

Why MicroStrategy Wants to Pay STRC Semi-Monthly Dividends

Under the current monthly schedule, STRC experiences predictable ex-dividend price drops. Each cycle creates a dip as holders sell after receiving payments. A recovery follows as buyers chase the next yield window.

Semi-monthly payouts would cut each individual dividend in half. Smaller, more frequent distributions should reduce those swings.

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Strategy says the move is designed to stabilize price near $100 par, dampen cyclicality, and improve liquidity.

STRC has already shown declining volatility since its July 2025 launch. The 30-day measure dropped from roughly 13% in its early months to about 2.1% recently.

The stock traded near $99.21 with an effective yield of approximately 11.59%.

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What STRC Holders Should Know

If approved, the first semi-monthly record date would be June 30, 2026. The first payment under the new schedule is expected on July 15. Total annual dividend obligations remain identical.

Strategy currently has about $6.35 billion in outstanding STRC notional value. The company uses STRC proceeds to purchase Bitcoin (BTC), adding to its treasury of more than 762,000 coins.

STRC Notional Value
STRC Notional Value. Source: MicroStrategy

Voting opens around April 28. Shareholders of record as of April 17 can participate through the definitive proxy materials on Strategy’s website.

The post MicroStrategy Pushes 2x Monthly Payouts for STRC Holders appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Ripple-linked token goes live on Solana in DeFi boost

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Ripple-linked token goes live on Solana in DeFi boost

Wrapped XRP went live on Solana on Friday, issued by custodian Hex Trust and bridged through LayerZero, making the token available inside Solana’s DeFi apps for the first time.

XRP holders can now use the wrapped asset on Jupiter, Phantom, Titan Exchange, and Meteora without selling their underlying position.

Each wXRP is backed 1:1 by native XRP held in segregated custody accounts and is redeemable at any time, according to Hex Trust.

The Solana launch is one leg of a broader rollout Hex Trust disclosed in December 2025, which also targets Ethereum, Optimism, and HyperEVM. The move fits a pattern that has accelerated through 2025 and 2026, where tokens that started their life on one chain are being bridged to others to capture yield and liquidity that did not exist at launch.

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XRP has historically functioned as a payment-rail token settled directly on the XRP Ledger. Solana has built the opposite use case, a throughput-optimized smart contract platform where the DeFi and memecoin activity actually lives.

The piece of infrastructure underneath this deal is LayerZero, the cross-chain messaging protocol that has quietly won most of the bridge volume that used to flow through Wormhole, Nomad, and Ronin before those protocols were exploited for more than $1 billion combined between 2022 and 2024.

Whether XRP generates meaningful DeFi volume on Solana is a separate question. The wrapped asset is live, but the test is whether holders actually use it.

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co-founder Joseph Lubin warns of the dangers of AI being controlled by a few big tech firms

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SBET executives urge to look beyond recent price action

Crypto’s next major inflection point is coming from artificial intelligence (AI).

That’s according to Consensys CEO and Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin. He told CoinDesk that autonomous or semi-autonomous agents can transact, coordinate and verify one another on decentralized networks, using crypto rails as a foundation for machine-driven activity.

Lubin, who will be speaking at Consensus Miami 2026 next month, said he is “sympathetic to the idea that blockchain is for machine intelligences,” but does not see humans being displaced. Instead, increasingly intelligent interfaces will abstract away complexity, allowing users to interact with crypto systems through intent rather than manual inputs. In that model, AI becomes the intermediary layer between people and protocols.

That vision comes with risks. If AI infrastructure remains concentrated among large technology firms, “we could be in trouble,” Lubin warned. He argued that decentralized systems and cryptography will be essential in ensuring accountability, enabling machines to “check on one another” in transparent, verifiable environments.

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Within that broader shift, products like MetaMask — a Consensys product — are evolving to reflect the change. Lubin said the wallet is being rebuilt as “a new kind of neobank that you own and control,” part of a transition toward what he described as a “personal money operating system.” AI-powered agents could act on behalf of users, managing assets, executing transactions and navigating a growing decentralized economy. “You can walk around with your personal financial system in your pocket,” he said.

The rise of corporate chains on Ethereum

Beyond interfaces, Lubin pointed to structural changes across the Ethereum ecosystem. The architecture of the blockchain is also shaping how institutions approach adoption. Lubin expects “corporate chains” to become more common as companies seek higher throughput and greater control over their infrastructure. Still, he argued that assets are best issued on Ethereum’s base layer, saying “the best way to ensure that an asset is durable… is to mint it on Ethereum layer one,” even if the asset is later used across other networks.

Stablecoins, one of crypto’s fastest-growing sectors, are part of that transition, but not the endpoint. Lubin described them as a “stepping stone” toward more fully decentralized financial systems, noting that current models remain heavily reliant on centralized issuers. Over time, he expects growth in decentralized collateral to enable more robust, crypto-native forms of money.

On tokenization more broadly, Lubin suggested that traditional finance and decentralized finance are entering a period of convergence, combining centuries of financial innovation with newer blockchain-based systems. The result, he said, will be a more granular and programmable global economy.

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Even as these shifts accelerate, Lubin struck a measured tone on longer-term technical risks like quantum computing. While not an immediate concern, he said Ethereum developers have been preparing for years.

“A lot of us just see it as being folded into the natural evolution of Ethereum,” Lubin said.

Read more: Joe Lubin claims DeFi is as safe as traditional finance, adding that bitcoin is in crisis

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Poland Parliament Fails Again to Override Crypto Bill Veto

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Poland Parliament Fails Again to Override Crypto Bill Veto

Poland’s parliament has once again failed to overturn a presidential veto blocking a key crypto regulation bill, extending the political standoff over how the country should oversee digital assets.

In a vote held Friday, lawmakers fell short of the 263 votes required to override the veto issued by President Karol Nawrocki, local outlet TVP World reported. A total of 243 MPs voted against the veto, while 191 supported it, per the report.

The bill, backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, aims to align Poland with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), introduced in 2024 to govern the issuance and custody of crypto assets. Poland remains the only EU member state yet to implement the bloc’s framework.

Nawrocki has defended his decision, citing concerns over excessive regulation, limited transparency and the potential burden on small businesses, according to the TVP World report.

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However, government officials warn that delaying regulation leaves investors exposed. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański reportedly said the absence of clear rules risks turning the market into an “El Dorado for fraudsters,” adding that both consumers and businesses remain vulnerable to abuse.

Related: Zonda exchange says 4.5K BTC wallet inaccessible amid withdrawal crisis

Poland’s crypto bill faces repeated defeats

The failed overturn of the presidential veto marks the second unsuccessful attempt by the government to push the legislation through after a similar rejection in December.

However, despite the failure, Polish lawmakers reintroduced the regulation within days in December last year. They claimed that the new draft was an “improved” version, though critics said it was virtually unchanged from the original.

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Tusk criticizes president for vetoing the bill. Source: Koalicja Obywatelska

President Nawrocki vetoed the bill again in February this year. “I will not sign a wrong law just because it was passed again by the parliamentary majority. A wrong law that passed a hundred times still remains a wrong law,” he said at the time.

Related: Poland president vetoes MiCA bill again as crypto companies look to license abroad

Zonda caught in Poland crypto political row

The dispute has also drawn in Zonda, the country’s largest crypto exchange, which has reportedly lobbied against the bill. Tensions escalated after Tusk accused the platform of links to illicit funding, citing intelligence reports that allegedly connect its origins to Russian criminal networks.

“Attempts to drag me and Zonda into the current political squabbles are as absurd as they are harmful to the Polish innovation market,” Zonda CEO Przemysław Kral wrote on X, adding that he is “compelled to take appropriate legal steps to protect my personal rights.”

Last week, he also said he does not control access to a crypto wallet reportedly holding $330 million, which he claims remained with former CEO Sylwester Suszek prior to his disappearance in 2022.

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Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author