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IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast by 0.2 Points as Middle East War Hits Momentum

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Iran’s Best War Tactic is Now a Liability at the Negotiating Table

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% in its April update. This marks a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its January estimate.

The Fund noted that the latest downgrade largely reflects economic disruptions stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. It added that in its absence, the outlook would have instead been revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%. 

IMF Cuts Growth, Lifts Inflation Forecast in 2026

The report added that the global growth forecast for 2027 remains unchanged from the January 2026 World Economic Outlook update.

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Meanwhile, global headline inflation is expected to edge higher in 2026 before resuming its downward trajectory in 2027. It is currently projected at 4.4% this year, before easing to 3.7% in 2027.

The economic impact remains uneven across regions. Emerging markets saw their 2026 growth outlook downgraded by 0.3 percentage points. Yet, projections for advanced economies were largely unchanged.

“Crucially, there is a high degree of cross-country dispersion in the reference forecast. While the growth and inflation revisions seem relatively modest at the global level, the toll on the conflict region and more vulnerable economies elsewhere—in particular, commodity-importing emerging market and developing economies with preexisting fragilities—is much more pronounced,” the report read.

The IMF also outlined additional downside risks. In a scenario where energy prices rise more sharply and persistently, global growth could slow to 2.5% in 2026.

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At the same time, inflation may climb to 5.4%. A more severe disruption, particularly involving damage to energy infrastructure in the conflict region, would deepen the impact, dragging global growth to around 2% and pushing inflation above 6% by 2027. Emerging and developing economies would be disproportionately affected again, with nearly twice the impact as advanced economies.

The IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook uses a “reference forecast” rather than a traditional baseline. This reflects the difficulty of forming stable assumptions amid ongoing uncertainty.

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The post IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast by 0.2 Points as Middle East War Hits Momentum appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Crypto World

Crypto Funds Post $1.4B Inflows as BTC Almost Touches $78K

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Crypto Funds Post $1.4B Inflows as BTC Almost Touches $78K

Cryptocurrency investment products logged another week of strong inflows on ceasefire optimism and a Bitcoin price breakout driving investor sentiment.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) posted $1.4 billion in inflows last week, beating the prior week’s $1.1 billion and marking the second-largest weekly inflows since January, CoinShares reported on Monday.

Following the three-week inflow streak totaling $2.7 billion, crypto ETPs now have net year-to-date inflows of around $3.8 billion, with assets under management (AUM) at $154.8 billion — the highest level since early February after dipping to as low as $128 billion in March.

The uptick in crypto funds has likely been driven by a recovery in risk appetite on US-Iran ceasefire extension talks, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said.

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The sentiment was further reinforced by Bitcoin (BTC) nearly touching $78,000 on Friday, according to CoinGecko.

Ether funds turn positive year to date

Bitcoin led last week’s ETP gains by a significant margin, with inflows totaling $1.12 billion. The gains brought year-to-date inflows to $3 billion, with AUM at $123 billion.

The majority of gains were contributed by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which posted $1 billion in inflows last week.

Ether (ETH) investment products also picked up with $328 million inflows in its strongest week since January, finally lifting the ETPs into green year-to-date with $197 million inflows.

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Crypto ETP flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Still, altcoin ETPs, including XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL), recorded negative flows, with XRP leading the outflows at $56 million. Solana recorded minor outflows of $2.3 million.

Short-Bitcoin products saw a modest $1.4 million of inflows, suggesting residual but limited hedging demand.

Regionally, the US dominated the surge with $1.5 billion of inflows, while Germany ranked second with just $28 million of inflows. Switzerland saw the largest redemptions last week, with outflows totaling $138 million.

Addressing the implications of recent economic data, CoinShares’ Butterfill suggested that March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 3.3% appears to have been largely looked through by markets, with core CPI at 2.6% seen as relatively contained, pointing to inflation pressures that remain more supply-driven than broad-based.

Related: Bitcoin erases weekend gains as US-Iran ceasefire faces pressure

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Nomura’s Laser Digital echoed that view, telling Cointelegraph that backward-looking macro indicators currently offer only limited insight while conflicts continue to affect supply chains and spending patterns.

“Delayed indicators like CPI and PMIs mostly reflect past conditions rather than the current situation,” Laser Digital said, adding that the outlook remains “cautiously optimistic.”

Bitcoin Price, Iran, CoinShares, Ethereum ETF, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Sentiment improvement was also reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which moved from “extreme fear” to “fear,” with the score rising above 29 on Monday for the first time since Jan. 29.

Magazine: Bitcoin ‘on track’ for $90K, ETFs pull in nearly $1B: Hodler’s Digest, April 12 – 18