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Sal Stewart breakout: Fantasy baseball outlook, stats and top-5 upside

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Sal Stewart probably isn’t the best player in baseball now. I know, I know, it’s hard to hear that. But it’s true. Probably. 

Since he debuted on Sept. 1 of last season, Stewart ranks 13th among all hitters with a 155 wRC+. He is hitting .275/.353/.601 in that span, and he’s actually been even better to open this season, upping that line to .289/.388/.639 through the first 23 games, and he’s doing it as a 22-year-old in a key lineup spot for a competitive team. And he’s leveled up in the early going despite teams getting a scouting report on him last season.

It’s undeniably impressive. Whether you’re looking at the top-line numbers or the underlying numbers, it all tells pretty much the same story: Stewart looks like an elite hitter right now. In 2025, Stewart’s solid .355 wOBA came along with an even better .398 expected wOBA, and so far in 2026, his .438 wOBA comes paired with a .419 xwOBA. Since 2021, there have only been 13 individual hitter seasons (out of 670 qualifiers) with an xwOBA over .419; use his .411 career mark, and you only add four more seasons. 

Of course, there have almost certainly been many, many more 41-game stretches where hitters have been better than Stewart has been. Just taking one random stretch from last season, from June 11 through July 31, and there were six hitters with an xwOBA of at least .411. Some of them are superstars, like Kyle Schwarber, Corey Seager, and Juan Soto. But that sextet also includes Willy Adames, a good hitter, but not much more than a pretty good hitter; it also includes Nick Kurtz and Kyle Stowers, two hitters for whom the jury is very much out as to exactly how good they are. 

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But it would be foolish to write off a hot start as meaningless when it comes to projecting a player forward. And you don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s just look at how the rest-of-season projections for Stewart have changed, using THE BAT X projections from FanGraphs.com:

Preseason

Rest of Season

Change

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AVG

0.271

0.280

+0.009

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OBP

0.328

0.348

+0.020

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SLG

0.453

0.498

+0.045

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BB%

7.30%

8.90%

+1.60%

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K%

18.50%

18.30%

-0.20%

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Projection systems are notoriously conservative, especially for young players, who face a steep learning curve at the MLB level. And yet, even after just 20 or so games, we’ve already seen a substantial increase in the expectations this system (typically the most accurate for Fantasy Baseball) has for Stewart. He’s gone from the 14th-best projected first baseman by wRC+ to the seventh-best already. That’s serious movement, and it’s meaningful. 

I can say this much with confidence: Stewart is almost certainly at least a good hitter. BaseballProspectus has a stat they call “Deserved Stats,” and they’ve got Stewart down for a .264/.342/.495 hitter for his career, with a very similar line so far this season. If that’s all he is, he’s a top-12 first baseman, and would rank even higher when he gains eligibility at either third base (where he needs one more appearance to qualify in CBS Fantasy leagues) or second base (where he needs three more). And, given his excellent home park, it feels fair to say that mid-.800s OPS line is probably close to his floor.

That might not be enough for you. I know. Some of you want us to declare that Stewart is already a top-three third baseman, better than Nick Kurtz even. Memories can be short, and reacting to what you’re seeing in the moment is exciting and fun, and Stewart has the look of an absolute star right now. He probably won’t keep being this good moving forward – he hits the ball hard, but not astronomically so (75th percentile average exit velocity) and his plate discipline metrics suggest he probably deserves something more like average-ish results with his strikeout and walk rates; he has also dipped down to a 15.2% pulled-air rate, making his current elite power production harder to buy into. There will be regression. 

But from a 20-ish game sample, Stewart has moved from a corner infielder we like to someone who will be starting a starting-caliber first baseman in all leagues moving forward. Is he a top-12 first baseman right now? Absolutely. Top-10? I’d lean that way. 

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Top-five? Well, I’m not ready to go there yet. The ceiling is certainly that high, especially with his rare out-of-position, 15-steal upside. But we’ll see Stewart slow down, and we’ll see pitchers adjust, and then it’ll be incumbent on him to adjust back. That’s when you really learn how good a player is.

But the ceiling? Well, that’s what we’re seeing right now, and it’s tremendous. And if Stewart ends up as a top-five first baseman in all Fantasy formats by the summer months, I won’t be too surprised.

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Sports

He threw Dianna Russini under the bus

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Podcaster and former NFL player Emmanuel Acho recently shared his thoughts on Mike Vrabel’s statements addressing the photos of himself and former New York Times journalist Dianna Russini. Russini was an NFL journalist for The Athletic, owned by The New York Times Company, and recently tendered her resignation after photos of herself and Vrabel, the New England Patriots coach, holding hands and embracing each other were exclusively released by Page Six on April 7.

Both Russini and Vrabel are married to other people, and were reportedly spotted together at the Ambiente resort in Sedona, Arizona, sometime in March 2026. Both Russini and Vrabel denied rumors of a romance, with the journalist claiming that she had been at the resort for a hiking trip with her girlfriends. Meanwhile, Vrabel alleges that he and his friends drove up to Sedona for a day trip and ran into Russini and her friends before returning to their hotels.

On April 21, 2026, Mike Vrabel addressed the scandal in a press conference, saying that he “had some difficult conversations with people that I care about – my family, the organization, the coaches, the players” after the photos went public.

During a subsequent episode of the Speakeasy podcast, Emmanuel Acho reacted to Mike Vrabel’s statement and alleged that the coach threw Russini “under the bus” with his comments. He further added that Vrabel saying he “had some difficult conversations with people that I care about” implied that their stories about coincidentally running into each other were not true, saying:

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“Vrabel handled it as well as he could handle it, but in handling it as well as he could handle it, of course, he threw Dianna Russini under the bus… First and foremost, address with the team, and then address with your family, then address the media, he did all that well… the moment he said, ‘I’ve had some difficult conversations with the people I care about,’ that implies that Dianna Russini wasn’t just on a girls’ trip.”

He continued:

“That’s the implication. Cause if Dianna Russini was just on a girls’ trip, and Mike Vrabel, you were just at the hotel and happened to run into each other coincidentally, what’s the difficult conversation?… The only reason you have to have a difficult conversation is if what Dianna Russini has said, reported, and suggested didn’t actually occur.”

Acho also added that while Mike Vrabel said “as little as possible” during the press conference, that one sentence “tells you everything you need to know.”


Exploring Mike Vrabel and Dianna Russini’s statements about the photo scandal

On April 7, Page Six posted photos of Mike Vrabel and Dianna Russini at a resort in Sedona, where they were seen holding hands and embracing each other. A source reportedly told the publication that the pair had breakfast together at 10:30 am on March 28 and spent some time in the pool. They were later spotted on the rooftop of a bungalow that evening, allegedly dancing for a while.

Both Mike Vrabel and Dianna Russini denied any romantic implications behind the photos in separate statements to Page Six. Russini claimed that the pictures did not “represent the group of six people who were hanging out during the day.” Meanwhile, Vrabel claimed that the pictures captured a “completely innocent interaction and any suggestion otherwise is laughable.”

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On April 14, 2026, Dianna Russini revealed that she had resigned from her post at The Athletic, claiming that the media engaged “in self-feeding speculation that is simply unmoored from the facts.” She further added that she had “no interest in submitting to a public inquiry that has already caused far more damage than I am willing to accept,” adding:

“It continues to escalate, fueled by repeated leaks, and I have no interest in submitting to a public inquiry that has already caused far more damage than I am willing to accept. Rather than allowing this to continue, I have decided to step aside now — before my current contract expires on June 30. I do so not because I accept the narrative that has been constructed around this episode, but because I refuse to lend it further oxygen or to let it define me or my career.”

Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel addressed the scandal in a press conference on April 21, saying:

“I’ve had some difficult conversations with people I care about, with my family, the organization, the coaches, the players. Those have been positive and productive. We believe in order to be successful on and off the field, you have to make good decisions. That includes me. That starts with me. We never want our actions to negatively affect the team. We never want to be the cause of a distraction. There are comments and questions that I’ve answered for the team and with the team.”


Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the NFL recently revealed that the league is not looking into Mike Vrabel’s conduct as part of its personal conduct policy, and the New England Patriots head coach will not face an internal conduct review for the scandal.